为什么美韩导弹部署将刺激中国开发先进武器 [美国媒体]

-------------译者：Linsanity2018-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------



The United States and South Korea’s recent decision to counter North Korean missile capabilities with an advanced system on the Korean peninsula left China “deeply dissatisfied” and ready to take “necessary measures” a defense ministry spokesman said at the end of July.

美国和韩国近期决定在朝鲜半岛部署先进的武器系统，以反制朝鲜的导弹力量。此举引发了中国的严重不满。中国国防部的一名发言人在七月底表示，中国已经准备好了采取“必要措施”加以应对。

In the month since the agreement was announced many analysts have wondered how Beijing’s anger will manifest. One common sentiment is that the strategic collateral imposed on China by the missile system called the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense may force Chinese diplomats to reconsider their inaction on North Korea’s nuclear efforts. Others fueled by an earlier Chinese warning that THAAD could “destroy” relations with South Korea “in an instant” argue that China may seek to discipline Seoul with economic repercussions.

在美韩宣布该决定的当月，许多分析家都思考过北京将会如何表达其愤怒。一种常见的观点是，这个被称为末段高空区域防御系统（THAAD，萨德）的导弹系统对中国造成了战略上的附带伤害，也许会迫使中国外交人员重新审视他们在朝核问题上的不作为。另一种观点，基于中国发出的“萨德有可能会‘瞬间摧毁’中韩关系”的警告，论证称中国可能寻求以经济上的回击来对首尔方面进行惩戒。

-------------译者：道角-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------



north korea missile
Such responses fail to encompass the full scope of China’s domestic and foreign policy thinking. China will not move in a quick or meaningful fashion to oppose Pyongyang — Beijing fears destabilizing the Kim regime which would risk expanding the U.S. presence in the region far beyond THAAD deployment and potentially spur an influx of impoverished North Korean refugees into China. In fact China’s THAAD-inspired refusal to support a U.N. Security Council measure on recent North Korean missile launches suggests that negotiations are even less attainable than before.

这种反应不能全面涵盖中国内政外交政策考量。中国不会采取迅速或有意义的方式反对平壤——北京惧怕推翻金家政权可能会导致的风险：美国在该地区的势力会扩张至远超出萨德部署的范围，以及刺激潜在的朝鲜贫民潮涌入中国。事实上，中国因受萨德刺激而拒绝支持联合国安委会就最近朝鲜发射导弹采取措施，表明谈判比以往更加难以实现。

 -------------译者：Linsanity2018-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Likewise THAAD deployment damages Chinese trust in Seoul on security issues but it does not obscure the two countries’ growing economic interdependence. While South Korea is asymmetrically dependent on economic relations with China it is also China’s second largest trade partner and a major source of foreign direct investment. Though Beijing will seek to coerce South Korea by publicly considering sanctions the risk of collateral from major economic retaliation is thus unwarrantable for China especially in the context of a slowing domestic economy.

同样地，萨德的部署也损害了中国在安全议题上对于首尔方面的信任，但不会令两国经济上的日渐相互依赖变得前途未卜。虽然这种经济依赖是非对称的，韩国更多地依赖与中国的经济关系，但它仍然是中国的第二大贸易伙伴和一个主要的外国直接投资来源地。尽管中国会以公开考虑制裁措施来试图迫使韩国就范，但进行大规模经济报复的附带风险也是中国所没有把握的，尤其是在中国国内经济放缓的大背景下。




-------------译者：天羽屠龙舞-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

stan stainton · University of Toronto · Aug 16 2016 9:57am 
We are a strange people.
We limit our nuclear arsenal & then take action that forces our "feared" opponent to enhance & advance their nuclear capabilities.
Same thing is happening in Poland & the Ukraine as we are the aggressors there as we build Missile "defence" systems & Russia responds with their own now needed defences. How dare they !!
The only ones who profit from this is the U.S. Military Complex.

我们是陌生人。
我们限制我们自己的核武库，并且采取行动迫使我们所“畏惧”的敌人提升和加强他们的和武器性能。
在波兰和乌克兰正在发生同样的事情，在哪儿，我们是侵略者 因为我们在那建立导弹“防御”系统，作为回应，俄罗斯也要建立防御系统。他们怎么敢！！！！
唯一的获益这是美国的军事复合体。

-------------译者：道角-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

C.s. Morgan · College of the Sequoias · Aug 16 2016 9:38am +5
I sometimes wonder who these think tank commandos are really rooting for. Armstrong has probably never been in a fist fight. What instincts could he possibly have that would make the situation on the Korean Peninsula any safer? American Universities are producing people with a lot of head knowledge but little or no experience in life. Knowledge without wisdom is dangerous.

有时候我会纳闷这些智库的智囊们真正支持的是谁？阿姆斯特朗可能从来没打过架。他凭什么认为这会让朝鲜局势变得更安全？美国大学生产有满脑袋知识却很少或根本没有生活经验的人。没有智慧的知识是危险的。

Daniel Pamukcu · Oakland University · Aug 16 2016 9:51am 
Thinking the same thing

正在思考同一件事

-------------译者：道角-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Bruce Korb · Aug 21 2016 3:15pm 
``The United States and South Korea’s recent decision to counter North Korean missile capabilities with an advanced system on the Korean peninsula left China “deeply dissatisfied” and ready to take “necessary measures” a defense ministry spokesman said at the end of July.''

"美国和韩国近期决定在朝鲜半岛部署先进的武器系统，以反制朝鲜的导弹力量。此举引发了中国的严重不满。中国国防部的一名发言人在七月底表示，中国已经准备好了采取“必要措施”加以应对。"

I do not think that saying "Responding to North Korea we won't do anything China won't like in order to keep China from getting dangerous." would be a very good response. Look at the South China Sea for a pretty current example. North Korea is rogue and China is going there too. Anyway countries need to prepare to defend themselves against megalomaniacs running rogue states. If China uses that as an excuse to beef up R&D on weaponry so be it.

我不认为说“我们不会做任何中国不喜欢的事来回应朝鲜，以避免中国变得危险”是个很好的回应。看看中国南海就是一个极好的例子。朝鲜是流氓国家，中国也朝此变化。反正各国都需要准备抵御狂妄的流氓国家。如果中国以此为借口加大武器研发投入，随它去吧。

-------------译者：Linsanity2018-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Giao Vu · Stanford University · Aug 17 2016 11:27am 
THAAD does nothing to prevent Seoul from being completely destroyed by the array of heavy guns that North Korea has aiming at that city. That's the reason why China is skeptical of the stated obxtive of placing THAAD in SK.

在保护首尔免遭朝鲜瞄准它的众多重型火炮彻底摧毁的方面，萨德毫无作用。这就是为何中国对美韩所宣称在韩国部署萨德的目的持怀疑态度的原因。

Lim Zhi Hao Winston · Singapore · Aug 20 2016 2:51pm
Not just China and Russia opposed even quite among of populace in South Korea have remonstrance the thaad disposition.

不仅仅是中国和俄国反对，韩国国内也有相当一部分民众抗议萨德的部署。

Michael Duplessis · Aug 23 2016 10:58am
North Korea's 'array of heavy guns' are WWII vintage monstrosities rusting in place with 40 +year old ammunition stockpiles rotting away in storage.

朝鲜的众多重型火炮都是二战时期遗留下的过时的庞然大物，正放在那里生锈呢，储备了40多年之久的弹药也只能烂在仓库里。

-------------译者：道角-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Scott E Bruneau · Wood Inspector at Michigan Ladder Company · Aug 17 2016 4:18pm
China IS developing "advanced" weapons. They HAVE them. China is a big big world player now. China is cruising when it comes to arming itself. If you proclaim a big part of the sea as yours then you probably feel you have the stuff to protect that claim. There is a mad mad arms race going on. It always HAS been going on. Like kids that have to one-up each other with the newest better toy. It has been happening since someone made a spear to be better than a stone. No big power wants to be #2.

中国正在发展“先进”武器。他们确实拥有。中国现在是个大大的世界玩家。中国一边武装自己一边巡弋。如果你宣告一大片海域属于自己，那么你大概会觉得自己有实力保卫那个声明吧。有一个陷入疯狂的军备竞赛，它一直在进行。就像孩子们止不住互相攀比最新最好的玩具一样。当有人制作出比石头更好的长矛的时候，这种竞赛就已经开始了。没有哪个强国愿做老二。

Michael Duplessis · Aug 23 2016 10:55am
China knows that North Korea is dangerous. This is hardly news to China. China threw off the mad totalitarianism of Maoism decades ago and sees the North Korean government as an anachronism an embarrassment. They do not begrudge South Korea and Japan (valuable trading partners) taking steps to protect themselves.

中国知道朝鲜危险。对中国来说这不是新闻。中国几十年前就抛弃了毛泽东思想里疯狂的极权主义，将朝鲜政府视为不合时宜和难堪的存在。他们不抱怨韩国和日本（有价值的贸易伙伴）采取措施来保护自己。