中国的创新经济是伪装的房地产泡沫吗？ [美国媒体]

-------------译者：724519871-审核者：Bad Romance------------



The Chinese government's call to the nation to build an innovation-driven economy from the top down has sparked a rush by local governments to construct new buildings in the name of supporting creativity.

中国政府寻球建立创新驱动经济，使得该国从上到下引发一场热潮，地方政府在支持创新的名义下建设新的建筑。

Innovation centers have been popping up around the country and are set to more than double to nearly 5000 in the next five years according to internet research firm iiMedia. The only problem for local governments; entrepreneurs are not moving in.

据网络研究公司iiMedia调查，过去5年时间里，创新中心突然在整个国家出现，数量达到5000个左右。对地方政府而言，唯一的问题是：企业没有搬进来。

Many centers are in small Chinese cities or towns not ideal locations for attracting startups. There is no local market for their product no local ecosystem of suppliers and fellow entrepreneurs and centers generally provide only basic amenities such as a desk and a telephone. They lack the financial technical or marketing expertise that many startups need.

许多中心在中国的小城市或者镇区，地理位置不理想，不利于吸引创业公司。因为他们的产品在当地没有市场，没有生态供应链和合作企业，而且中心通常不提供便利设施，诸如桌子和电话之类的东西。同时，他们也缺乏金融分析能力或者专业市场营销知识，这些正是许多创业公司必需的。

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Most incubators have occupancy rates of no more than 40 percent iiMedia says.

大部分孵化器的入驻率不会超过40%，iiMedia 称。

The result: like steel mills theme parks and housing before them the country now faces a glut of innovation centers as another top-down policy backfires to leave white-elephant projects and a further buildup of debt.

结果是：像之前的钢铁厂，主题公园和住房一样，中国的自上而下政策又开始产生负面影响，导致中国面临创新中心过剩的局面，从而也导致大量无用项目的出现和债务的增加。

"The risk of a bubble is extremely large" said Shi Jiqiang a partner at Leilai Management which runs day-to-day operations at a startup base in the city of Tianjin near Beijing.

“泡沫的风险是非常巨大的”，Leilai Management公司的合伙人Shi Jiqiang如是说，该公司在天津的一处创业基地进行日常的运营。

"This is both a test for government and for the managers of startup spaces ... there aren't enough entrepreneurs."

“这对政府以及创业基地的管理者都是一个考验。。。没有足够的企业家入驻。”

-------------译者：Linsanity2018-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

China's Ministry of Industry and IT declined to comment and the state planning agency the National Development and Reform Commission did not respond to a request for comment.

中国的工业和信息化部（工信部）对此拒绝评论。而作为国家规划机构的国家发展与改革委员会（发改委）也未对评论的请求作出回应。

Beijing argues its development model that worked so well for infrastructure and real estate powering the country through the global financial crisis can build successful high-tech startups.

北京主张，其在基础设施建设和房地产领域成效卓着并且力助国家度过全球金融危机的发展模式，也适用于建设成功的高科技初创企业。

With slogans such as "mass entrepreneurship" and "internet plus" Beijing has called for innovation centers to be built all over the country hoping to lay the groundwork for the next Jack Ma - who founded e-commerce giant Alibaba - to emerge.

随着“大众创业”、“互联网+”之类口号的提出，北京已经号召在全国各地建立创新中心，以期为下一个马云（电商巨头阿里巴巴的创始人）的出现奠定基础。

-------------译者：龙腾翻译总管-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

It has encouraged college students and even migrant workers to try their hand at starting their own businesses to transform China into a high-tech economy less reliant on basic manufacturing.

中国还鼓励大学生甚至是农民工进行创业从而让中国转变成为一个高技术经济体，不那么依赖基础制造业。

Almost 80 percent of the capital for the innovation centers springing up around the country is coming from the government or universities which are state-backed in China or a combination of sources iiMedia said.

中国新兴创新中心几乎80%的资本都来自政府或者公立大学，或者来源于二者的结合，iiMedia 称。

"In any sort of market you want the experts making the decisions not some technocrat or bureaucrat" said William Bao Bean investment partner at venture capital fund SOSV which invests in startups. "You don't tend to see too many successful companies come out of a government-based decision-making process."

“在任何市场上，你需要专家来作出决定，而不是由技术官僚或者官僚来做决定“投资创业企业的创业投资基金SOSV 的投资合伙人William Bao Bean如是说。”一般来说从政府主导的决策过程中脱颖而出的企业并不太多。”


-------------译者：道角-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

seanmcdirmid 40 days ago
One of these innovation centers popped up recently next to our office. These are basically re-purposed "ghost malls" for malls that couldn't make it in retail of which there are many. So call it "fall out" from the real estate bubble more than anything and who wants to be stuck in a window-less subterranean labyrinth? Not the best place to be innovative.
At least this is in Beijing Zhongguancun which does have a startup scene...kind of. And such space might be appealing to lower cost startups who don't want to rent office space out in the suburbs.

其中一个创新中心最近在我们办公室旁边冒出来。这些基本上是重新定义的“幽灵商城”，即众多的无法销售出去的商城。称它为房地产泡沫的“余埃”最为合适，况且谁愿意被困在没有窗户的地下迷宫？对创新而言并不是最佳地方。
至少在北京中关村确实出现了一片创业情景……某种。这种地方对那些不想在郊区租房办公的低成本创业公司也许有吸引力。

-------------译者：道角-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------
    
turnip1979 40 days ago
This seems to be a non-issue IMHO. If they try to attract foreigners ala Startup Chile they could fill these things up in weeks. If 40% occupied innovation centers is the biggest thing wrong with China they aren't in bad shape.
Btw ... Ontario Canada tried to do innovation from the top-down via the Mars building. The amount of money they spent in real-estate could have been used to give every person with a Masters/PhD in a STEM discipline from an Ontario University a bag of cash. But the buildings look prettier I guess than seed capital.

恕我直言，这个不成问题。如果他们试图吸引外国人到创业加速器(类似智利Startup Chile)来，几个星期内他们就能完善这些事情。如果这些入住率达40％的创新中心是中国最大的错误，那也没有什么不妙。
又及……加拿大安大略省曾试图通过MaRS的大楼进行从上到下的创新。他们花在房地产上的钱足以分给从安大略省大学获得STEM类硕／博士学位者每人一口袋。但我猜比起种子资金，还是大楼要看起来更漂亮些。

seanmcdirmid 40 days ago
Believe me they have no interest in foreigners. All this is by Chinese for Chinese.

相信我，他们对外国人不感兴趣。所有这些都是由中国人为中国人做。

译注：①Startup Chile：智利的创业加速器项目
          ②MaRS：即MaRS Discovery District，加拿大安大略省一个类似科技创业园的街区。
          ③STEM：代表科学（Science），技术（Technology），工程（Engineering），数学（Mathematics）。

-------------译者：Linsanity2018-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

throwaway1979 40 days ago
Can you elaborate? Is this some kind of xenophohia like we see in other parts of the world? Or is it they want to learn how to do everything in the entire vertical chain (with a focus towards moving up the value chain)? Or something else entirely?
I see Chinese tech companies open up R&D shops in North America and I'm curious what they really want out of it.

你能详细述说吗？这是像我们在世界其他地方看到的某种排外吗？或者是他们想要学习整个垂直价值链中的每个环节该怎么做（关注点在于向价值链上端移动）？或者是完全不同的其他什么？
我看到中国的科技公司在北美设立研发工作室。我很好奇他们究竟想要从中得到什么。
     
seanmcdirmid 40 days ago
The markets they are going after is domestic the primary language even at my branch of an American company (Microsoft China) is Chinese. It is not a place where multiculturalism is common or especially appreciated. A few foreigners get hired here and there but it's not very common at all.
If they really want foreign employees they probably think setting up shop abroad is the only way to do it.

他们所追求的是国内市场。即使是在美国公司的中国分部（微软中国），中文也是主要语言。这里并不是一个多元文化很流行或者特别受追捧的地方。他们零零星星地雇佣一些外国人，但并不算很普遍。
如果真的想要外国雇员的话，他们也许觉得在国外设立工作室是唯一的途径。

-------------译者：道角-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

soperj 40 days ago
Because most garages that start ups In Silicon Valley were originally in were windowed?

因为硅谷的大部分创业公司起初所在的车库都装了窗户？

matt4077 40 days ago
I'd guess they were mostly operated with the doors open at least in the summer. From what I recall most startups in the garage-stage also had no employees. I can see myself working without daylight but I'd never consider subjecting employees to that (It's also illegal in my jurisdiction).

我猜他们至少在夏天是开着门的。我记得大部分创业公司在车库创业阶段也没有雇员。我可以让自己不见天日地工作，但我从未考虑让雇员也这样（这在我的管辖权限内也是非法的）。

johncolanduoni 40 days ago
> I'd never consider subjecting employees to that (It's also illegal in my jurisdiction)
I'm curious what jurisdiction is this? I've never heard of such a restriction (though I have to say I'm a fan).

>我从未考虑让雇员也这样（这在我的管辖权限内也是非法的）。
我好奇这是什么管辖权限？我从未听说过这种限制（虽然我不得不说我是一个粉丝）。

-------------译者：道角-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

seanmcdirmid 40 days ago
Fire code. Offices must have Windows or barring that something else very expensive. Also true for most houses.
China doesn't really have a fire code or if they do it is routinely ignored so it wouldn't be an issue here (e.g. consider the ant tribe of people who live in apartment building basements). And obviously underground malls are treated differently in general.

依照消防规范。办公室必须有窗户或栏杆等较贵的设施。对大多数房子也适用。
中国没有真正的消防规范，或者他们照例将它忽视了，所以在这里它并不是个问题（例如，想想居住在公寓楼地下室的蚁族吧）。显然地下商场一般是区别对待的。

seanmcdirmid 40 days ago
Touche. Abandoned shopping malls might be a step up from garages.

关键:废弃的购物中心可以作为车库的升级版。

mac01021 40 days ago
Not really. The point of startup in a garage is that it's your garage. No commute to get there and no extra rent beyond what you were already paying.

真不是。车库创业的重点是它是你的车库。没必要坐通勤，也不用支付额外的租金。

-------------译者：道角-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------
    
seanmcdirmid 40 days ago
China lacks garages. I mean they have underground tenant garages everywhere but there is nothing like the western detached garage anywhere even in the countryside. This might be the next best thing.
However 798 was an old factory complex that was taken over by artists for awhile before that success caused gentrification that then kicked them out. That...would be cool but the Chinese government doesn't think so innovatively (they would never think a bunch old work shops would make a better startup workspace than an abondoned shopping mall - sigh).

中国缺乏车库。我的意思是，他们到处都有地下出租车库，但没有像西方那样的独立车库，甚至乡下也没有。这也许是未来最好的事情。
798是一个老厂区，艺术家们接管了一段时间，然而其成功引起了高档化，然后他们被踢了出去。那......会很酷，但中国政府不会有如此创意思维（他们绝不会想到一堆旧工作室比一个废弃的购物中心更适合作为创业公司工作区 - 叹气）。
     
mjevans 40 days ago
How about an arcology overhaul route?
Make more of the 'common' inner areas a combination of hydroponics (above) and greenway parks (beneath). Use skylights and/or artificial sun-lamps as necessary/effective.

翻修为生态建筑的思路怎样？
把更多的“共同”内部区作为水培（上面）和绿道（下面）的组合体。使用天窗和/或人工太阳灯作为必要/有效采光。

 -------------译者：道角-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

jonathankoren 40 days ago
I came from Dalian last month and the entire city seems to be under construction. Just in 5 years the city has changed. There's a new subway that wasn't even under construction then and everywhere you look there's a new high rise condominium being built often times just a couple of blocks away from another either under construction or worse yet a finished but completely empty building. The city is trying to get people move into the reclaimed land in East Harbor and bizarrely even a 19th century Parisian neighborhood... which is empty for 2 years except for an "American-style" kindergarten and a wedding photographer.[0]
It's clearly a bubble. It's hard to understand how any of these are going to be filled. There's no real place to invest except real estate in China and even there it's full corruption. It's apparently not unusual to "own" (well have a 70 year government lease on) on a property but not actually have the deed because the deed has been lost somehow.
It's very weird.
http://english.sina.com/culture/p/2014/1024/748460.html

我上个月从大连来的，整个城市似乎处在建设中。仅仅在5年内，城市已经改变了。有一条新地铁甚至都不在建设了，然后到处可见新的高层公寓在建，往往离它仅几个街区，就有另一个在建的或比这还要糟的建成却完全空置的建筑。这座城市正试图让人们搬进东海港的新开发区，奇诡的是附近竟然有个十九世纪风格的巴黎城…空了2年，除了有一家“美国式”的幼儿园和一家婚纱摄影店。
这显然是一个泡沫。很难理解怎样才可填满其中任何一处。在中国没有真正可以投资的地方，除了房地产，即使那里也充满了腐败。显然“拥有”（ 唔，有一个70年的政府租约）地产倒也不是非同寻常，但实质上是没有地契的，因为地契在某种程度上已经丢失了。
太怪异了。

-------------译者：雾-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

zhte415 40 days ago
Fantastic. I live in Dalian and have done for around 10 years.

不可思议。我住在大连快10年了。

The city has changed - that's why I dropped an alternate career - to see what newspapers were writing about in the mid-2000s about China's rise.

这个城市发生了巨大的变化——我选择轮流性职业的原因就是——见证报纸所描述的二十一世纪初叶中期中国的崛起。

Dalian is not unique in this respect. Cities across the seaboard and a sext few more inland are all doing the same thing.

大连并非这方面的个例。海滨城市与一些更多的内陆城市也在发生着翻天覆地的变化。

But is it a bubble? Yes it is but in a strange kind of way. 10 years ago there was one software park with around 12 buildings and a local college. Now that software park has 30+ buildings and there are an additional 3 software parks located further from the city center all larger than it.

但这是泡沫吗？是的，它是泡沫但却以一种奇怪的方式存在着。十年前这儿有一个软件园，它包括十二栋建筑以及一所当地的大学。现在这个软件园拥有超过三十栋建筑，而且在距离市中心更远的地方有三个比它更大的软件园。

The industrial development zone was a road with a bar district and a few 24 hour restaurants (many nearby factories operate round-the-clock shifts) a couple of hotels and several large lots filled by largely Japanese corporations. Now it is a city of 1 million+ itself a city on the edge of the city.

在以前，工业开发区的沿路有一个酒吧区和一些二十四小时营业餐厅(附近有很多工厂全天候轮班)，几家旅馆以及几块大部分被日本公司占据的土地。现在，它已经成为了大连市边缘的一个人口超过100万的城市了。

10 years ago there were also a lot of empty buildings all of which are now full. When you visited you probably noticed a lot of high-density housing near the newer office and industrial districts. The local government makes around 1/2 of its revenue (highly trusted word of mouth) from land sales to developers who in-turn(更正:in turn) make their profit from the workers that fill these hugely subsided commercial buildings including the cost of the subway and subsidising busses.

十年前这里有很多空荡荡的大楼如今都住满了人。当你参观这里的时候你可能会注意到新一代办公楼与工业区附近的高密度住房。当地政府把土地收税的一半左右(相当可靠的口头消息)给开发商，他们反过来从工人那里获得的利润来填补沉淀下来的商业建筑，包括补贴公交车的话费。！

What's the core driver for this?

这种发展背后的核心驱动力是什么呢？

Jobs for educated people from rural areas who have no hope nor desire to work on the farm or in the rural town. Their family will invest all they have on ensuring their child 'makes it' with a stable job at a big-name company in a clean city. As long as the jobs are coming the city is sustainable.

受教育的农村人口没有希望或不想留在农场或乡镇工作。他们的家庭会投入他们的一切来确保自己的孩子在一个干净的城市里的一家大有名气的公司里有一份稳定的工作。

For Dalian a lot of jobs have stopped coming over the past 1-2 years (4-5 years ago was boom-time especially in BPO and ITO) and construction considerably slowed but these are cyclical. Somewhere else a city is allowing companies to enjoy lower taxes (a lot of incentives in Xi'an Chengdu Chongqing for 'soft' jobs where the export is electronic in the form of email and SVN and not hindered by these cities' physical locations) and the boom is happening there and the city is making money despite the tax breaks it's offering. It's a bubble for sure but it's being juggled.

在大连，很多工作机会都在过去的一两年中变少了(在四到五年前是工作岗位的爆炸期，尤其是在BPO和ITO)，而且建设相当缓慢但这是周期性的。其他地方的一些城市允许公司享受低税率(西安、成都、重庆对出口电邮和交互式虚拟网络的电子产品行业予以激励，这类产品不受上述城市的地理位置所阻碍。)而且这种爆炸性增长正在进行，这座城市正在赚钱尽管它提供了税收减免。它的确是一个泡沫，但它在掌控之中。

-------------译者：道角-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

mrslave 40 days ago
Tangentially: independent of the truth of this article the volume of criticism of China's economy from Western media is hilarious in contrast to propaganda reported verbatim from the USA: the "slow recovery"; metrics that are hollow once the surface is scratched (e.g. jobs numbers comprising large below-full-time service sector new housing starts with growing shared-residence numbers). Never mind bankrupt cities territories and soon states; inflation; and the national debt.

乱谈：不管本文的真实性如何，西方媒体对中国经济连篇累椟的批评和来自美国的字面报道宣传对比一下就显得滑稽：“缓慢的复苏”；经不起推敲的度量指标（例如：就业数据包括大量非全职服务部门，新开工住房包括越来越多的合居）。不要介意破产的城市、地区和即将破产的国家；通胀；和国家债务。

seanmcdirmid 40 days ago
Isn't tangentially just another word for "what aboutism"?
Have you ever tried reading the Chinese media before? It is a step above North Korea's media but still incredibly twisted.

   “乱谈”不是“那个啥主义”的同义词吗？
  你以前试着看过中国媒体吗？  它比朝鲜媒体高一层次，但仍然令人难以置信地扭曲。

ra1n85 40 days ago
Can you elaborate or provide sources? The language you use is incredibly dense almost as if an online translation service was used.

你能详细说明或提供来源吗？你使用的语言非常密集，简直像是用在线翻译。

-------------译者：道角-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

adrenalinelol 40 days ago
1. U.S. Natl. Debt: $18.8 Trillion [1]
2. ~ 20 states face some form a fiscal problem/crisis [2]
3. I assume he's talking about the alternative means of measuring unemployment? The worst case scenario that is accepted by mainstream economics is ~10% [3]
None of what he said was wrong but China is in serious trouble. The real-estate bubble is hiding a credit bubble. As the government attempts to scale back stimulus programs the % of the economy which is dependent on such activity will start to feel the pinch. No one really knows how much pain the average Chinese citizen is going to feel but the situation has no parallel in history the amount of money the Chinese government has spent is astronomical. Some economists have stated they expect the debt to peak 283% of GDP... [4]
1. https://www.nationalpriorities.org/campaigns/us-federal-debt-what/?gclid=CjwKEAjw2PK7BRDPz5nDh9GjoGcSJAAybcS3NpF90rW7AdZ3WqxiM7x5ynKwI8HwDnQBIf8MMDvO8RoCYrDw_wcB
2. http://mercatus.org/statefiscalrankings
3. http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm
4. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-21/china-s-debt-seen-rising-through-2019-peaking-at-283-of-gdp

1.美国国民债务: $ 18.8万亿 [1]
2.～20 个洲面临着某种形式的财政问题/危机 [2]
3.我认为他是在谈论衡量失业率的替代方法？被主流经济学接受的最坏的情况是～10%[3]
4.他所说的没有错，但中国正处于严重的麻烦。房地产泡沫隐藏了信贷泡沫。当政府试图缩减经济刺激计划时，依赖这种活动的部分经济将开始感受到压力。没有人真正知道中国普通公民将会感到有多痛苦，但这种情况是史无前例的，中国政府花费的金额是天文数字。一些经济学家表示，他们预计债务占GDP峰值为283％...[4]
1. https://www.nationalpriorities.org/campaigns/us-federal-debt-what/?gclid=CjwKEAjw2PK7BRDPz5nDh9GjoGcSJAAybcS3NpF90rW7AdZ3WqxiM7x5ynKwI8HwDnQBIf8MMDvO8RoCYrDw_wcB
2. http://mercatus.org/statefiscalrankings
3. http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm
4. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-21/china-s-debt-seen-rising-through-2019-peaking-at-283-of-gdp

 -------------译者：绿叶氧气-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

paulsutter 40 days ago
The labor force participation rate kept declining throughout the supposed recovery.
http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/563caf319dd7ccfc418...
The "unemployment" rate doesn't include people who gave up looking for work among other adjustments it doesn't tell you how many people are actually working. That's what the labor force participation rate measures.
The rise of nontraditional candidates is less surprising in light of this.

失业率并没有包括放弃寻找工作的人，其他的政策调整里也没有告诉我们实际上有多少人正在工作。
而这正是衡量劳动力参与率所需要的。
鉴于这一点，非传统候选人的崛起一点也不令人惊奇。

wildengineer 40 days ago
In 2006 the federal bureau of labor statistics under George W. Bush concluded the labor participation rate would continue to fall for decades. Labor participation rate is not a strong indicator given our aging workforce.

2006年，小布什政府领导下的美国联邦劳动统计局认为，未来十年美国劳动参与率会继续降低。但是劳动参与率并不是衡量就业人口老龄化的重要指标。
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2006/11/art3full.pdf

-------------译者：themoment-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

ZoeZoeBee 40 days ago
Yes the decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate due to Demographics has been known for quite some time. It is the inevitable consequence of an aging work force with birthrates below replacement level for a few decades.
The problem is the Labor Force Participation Rate has fallen much quicker than any of the forecasts based upon Demographics. The reason for this is the lack of people working in their prime working years the funny thing is the LFP would be even lower if Boomers were retiring at the rate they are supposed too but the weaker economy had led many of them to delay retirement which in turn harms those who should be working.
A Closer Look at the Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate
https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/o...

是的，由于人口比例分配，劳动力参与率降低已为大家所知有段时间了。 这是人口老龄化，而出生率又在过去的几十年内达不到替换水平的必然结果。
问题是劳动力参与率的降低速度已比任何根据人口统计学做出的预测都快。主要原因是缺乏盛年的劳动力，而搞笑的是如果婴儿潮一代能在他们该退休的时候退休， 劳动力参与率会更低，但是不景气的经济使得他们中的许多人延迟退休，这反过来又妨碍了本来应该工作的人。
要进一步了解劳动力参与率降低问题，请参见
https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/o...