对付中国，要更强硬，而不是更蠢 [美国媒体]

 

原文作者：Doug Bandow
Senior Fellow, the Cato Institute



Whenever China is mentioned in a presidential campaign, the consequences are rarely good. In 2012 residents of Ohio, where anti-Beijing ads proliferated, might have believed that the campaign hinged on which candidate was tougher on China. Next year U.S. policy toward the People's Republic of China might become a broader election issue, leading to serious damage in the relationship.

在美国总统竞选大战中，只要提及到中国，结果总是令人焦头烂额。2012年的俄亥俄州居民可能记忆犹新，那一年反中国的宣传广告漫天飞舞，几乎就让人们相信选总统就是选那个人对中国更强硬。明天，美国对中国的政策可能会变成全方面的选举问题，而这，将会对两国的双边关系造成10000点伤害。

U.S. policy toward the PRC is an important political issue. Trade, proliferation, human rights, cyberwar, security, and more are at stake in how the existing superpower and emerging great power get along in coming years. How bilateral ties develop--whether cooperation or confrontation dominates--may define the 21st century, 

美国对中国政策是极为紧要的政治问题。贸易，核扩散，人权，网络战争，全球安保以及更最为的紧要：一个即存的超级强权和一个复兴的超级强权如何在来年共处。两国的双边关系，无论是携手共赢还是冷战对抗，都将决定人类21世纪的历史。

Unfortunately, political campaigns generally are not well-suited for the thoughtful discussion of complex, nuanced international issues. Today's GOP candidates all demand more military spending to support confrontation against nations far and wide. Many Republican voters are skeptical of any foreign policy message that does not involve pummeling one nation or another. 

但是很不幸，在错综复杂时而微妙的国际问题理性讨论面前，政治选举会显得格格不入。共和党的选举人如今全部都在强调增加军事支出，支持更深更持久的对抗。甚至不去军事打击他国的外交政策，都会让选举人产生疑虑。

It should come as no surprise, then, that China has entered the campaign. One of Beijing's loudest critics is Donald Trump. So far, however, he has focused on economic issues, as did Barack Obama and Mitt Romney when they battled for Ohio's votes three years ago. Trump has not talked about war with the PRC. Indeed, in general he appears to be less spoiling for a fight than the other leading GOP contenders.

中国因素进入了美国选举战，也不是什么值得惊奇。对北京政府最严苛的声音来自于川普，然而到目前为止，他的话题也只是聚焦早经济问题。就好像三年前奥巴马和罗姆尼在俄亥俄州一战中一样。川普从未提及和中国开战。比起其他投票领先的共和党人叫嚣决一死战，他更克制。

Carly Fiorina promised to be "more aggressive in helping our allies ... push back against new Chinese aggression." With Washington already pledging to defend allied territorial claims, arm allied states, and step up military patrols, it's not clear what more she would do.

Carly Fiorina甚至夸口“采取更主动的方式帮助盟友···对付中国的入侵。华盛顿政府已经做出保证，将会保障盟友的领土主权，将会军事武装盟友，并且增加军事巡逻，如果Carly Fiorina上台，真不知道，她所谓的更主动会到什么程度。

Marco Rubio denounced the PRC's "increasingly aggressive regional expansionism" and the administration's alleged "willingness to ignore human rights violations in the hope of appeasing the Chinese leadership." If the Florida Senator has discovered a means to force an authoritarian foreign power to transform itself politically, he should share it. Beijing will not adopt democracy on Washington's say-so.

Marco Rubio甚至公然抨击中国“在地区内的扩张越来越有侵略性”，还指责美国政府“故意对人权问题视而不见，来取悦中国领导人”。Marco Rubio作为一名佛罗里达的议员，如果真的找到了一种手段可以改变他国政治模式，真的该拿出来给大家亮亮剑。中国政府也不会喜欢美国政府人士以民主的名义如此发表个人意见。

However, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, desperate to revive his flagging campaign, acted as China's harshest critic before dropping out. He declared: "Given China's massive cyberattacks against America, its militarization of the South China Sea, continued state interference with its economy, and persistent persecution of Christians and human rights activists, President Obama needs to cancel the state visit. There's serious work to be done rather than pomp and circumstance." 

还有威斯康辛州州长Scott Walker，明知道要从选举战中落败，也破釜沉舟，发表了对中国最尖锐的批评，他声称“由于中国对美国发起了大量网络攻击，由于中国在南中国海上耀武扬威，由于中国政府不断干预本国经济，由于中国常年迫害基督徒和人权认识，总统奥巴马应该取消和中国的国事访问，光站着说话不行，还要实际行动。”

Indeed, Walker explained, "honors should only be bestowed upon leaders and countries that are allies and supporters of the United States, not just for China, which is a strategic competitor." He also apparently believed telling Chinese President Xi Jinping to stay home would generate dividends around the globe: "I think China, as others in the world, would actually respect some leadership once and for all from the United States. Part of the problem right now is that they don't respect us."

Walker还补充说到“荣耀只能留给美国的盟友或者支持者的国家或者领导人，不只是针对中国这个战略竞争对手”。很明显，他觉得只要告诉习主席呆在家，我们就可以从全球各地获得利益好处。“我认为中国，和世界上其他国家没有什么不同，应该彻底的尊重美国世界老大的地位，现在世界上很大一部分问题就是因为很多国家不尊重美国。”

Of course, the state visit went forward without incident, or great success. No country or leader is entitled to a state visit, of course, but Walker's convoluted reasoning was what one would expect from a governor play-acting as an uber-hawk to leap-frog his equally belligerent competitors. U.S. policy toward Beijing can, and perhaps should, be tough. But it should not be stupid.

当然，这次国事访问，肯定不会有什么意外顺利进行，而且也不会有什么重大成绩。但是，没有一个国家或者领导人的国事访问是被授予的。Walker琢磨出这么多令人费解的言论，无非是想转变自己州长的角色定位，一飞冲天超过自己的选战对手。然而，回到本质，美国对中国的政策，或许应该更强硬，但是不是如此的懵圈。

First, it is a mistake to view a state visit as an "honor." It is a diplomatic tool. No matter how much Luxembourg might deserve the "honor," it would be silly to host the reigning grand duke for a state visit. As well as the heads of state of most of America's allies. They don't matter much diplomatically.

把国事访问说成一种“荣耀”本身就是错误，其本身不过一种外交工具。照这种说法，无论有多少卢森堡有多少“荣耀”，谁去邀请他们的统治者卢森堡大公国事访问岂不傻瓜头顶，还有美国众多盟友的国家首脑，多数也不值得进行太多外交活动。

Second, disrespecting another nation's leadership is a curious way to seek its respect. Privately telling Beijing that there would be no state visits would get its attention, though stationing nuclear weapons in Taiwan would be even more effective in that regard--and would be more likely to affect their behavior, though not necessarily for the good. Cancelling an already scheduled trip would be seen as a studied insult, enough to anger but not sufficient to coerce. That would make progress on important issues less likely.

第二，不尊重他国的领导人是在告诉别人自己需要被尊重，如果只是想告诉北京政府这一点，在台湾部署核武器不比取消国事访问更有效果？也会更加刺激对方的反应，而且百害无一利。取消一个计划好的访问，将被视为故意的羞辱，可以激怒对方却不足以压迫对方。而且对重大事件的解决也起不到什么作用。

Third, everyone believes that "there is serious work to be done" with China. The disagreement is over the best way to do so. Treating other nations seriously is one step in attempting to work through contentious issues. Hosting a state visit might help achieve that goal.

第三，每个人都认为对中国“还有很多事要做”，但要求同存异，在处理事务纠纷的时候，认真对待他国才是第一步，国事访问有利于解决问题。

Fourth, lumping together radically different issues makes serious work less likely to succeed. Fiscally irresponsible Washington is in no position to lecture the PRC on internal economic policy. Christians do face persecution, but the situation, though complex, is far better than a few years ago. Moreover, the rising number of Chinese believers, not Washington demands, is forcing the Communist Party to increasingly accommodate religion.

第四，把很多不同的的激烈言论放在一起绝不会解决问题，财政上挥霍无度的美国政府已经没有实力再经济政策上对中国指手画脚，极度教徒确实面对迫害，但是问题相当复杂，而且比起前几年已经有所好转。越来越多的中国宗教人士要红党容纳宗教。

There's no easy answer to cyberwar, but U.S. companies and governments possessing the ability to retaliate as well as defend would be more effective than cancelling a state visit. Resolving conflicting territorial claims will require very serious work, but is mostly the concern of allied states now squabbling with Beijing. Telling President Xi he won't get a state dinner until his government gives up its claim to the Senkaku or Spratly Islands won't have much effect.

网络战的问题并不好回答，但是美国公司和政府正在拥有网络战报复能力，也有防御能力，这一切都比简单的取消国事访问好太多。解决领土冲突需要严肃对待，但是现在多半是美国的盟友和北京政府打嘴仗，难道告诉习主席你的政府必须放弃钓鱼岛和南沙群岛才可以来美国访问就是好的解决方法吗？

Of course, being unrealistic and even irresponsible is par for the course in American politics. And with 14 months to go until the presidential election, there's room for a lot more China-bashing. 

必须承认，不切实际甚至不负责任就是美国政治选举的游戏规则标准，现在距离选举还有14个月，还有很长时间来抨击中国。

But much is at stake in maintaining a civil if not overly warm relationship. Even Donald Trump admitted that he has sold real estate to Chinese buyers: "Am I supposed to dislike them," he asked? Hopefully any threats and insults will be forgotten by the winning candidate, like both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, who chose to build cooperative relationships despite their campaign attacks. 

甚至川普也承认他曾将卖房子给中国人，“我不喜欢他们吗？”。未来是充满希望的，一切威胁论和辱骂都将在选举结束后烟消云散，比如克林顿和布什时代，他们在选战中攻击过中国，之后却都建立了合作关系。

However, the more heated the rhetoric, the more likely the PRC is to respond in kind. And GOP hawks like Walker may turn out to be true believers rather than pragmatic cynics. If so, U.S.-China relations could be heading for stormy times.

或许，美国越使用激烈的措辞，中国方面的回应越宽顺。共和党鹰派不希望Walker连自己说的话都不信，不希望Walker只是在识时务。如果这样，美中关系的冬季就不远了。