没人相信中国的经济增长 但是... [美国媒体]

No one believes China's growth, but...

没人相信中国的增长，但是。。。



China: The 'other' economic indicators

中国：“另一个”经济指示器

China just told the world that it's economy is growing at 6.9%. Almost no one believes that.

中国告诉世界它的经济增速为6.9%.几乎没人相信这个数据。

The Communist Party in China values stability above all else. The Chinese government set a target of 7% economic growth this year, so it's no surprise that the country is reporting a figure very close to that.

中国的稳定性高于一切。今年，中国政府提供了7%的经济目标，所以，不必惊讶，中国发布的经济增速会非常接近这个数字。

"I once asked the premier of China: how reliable were Chinese statistics? He said not reliable, but they tell you which way the wind is blowing," says former ambassador Stapleton Roy, who is now at the Kissinger Institute on China and the U.S.

前大使，现任基辛格中美关系研究所成员的斯泰普尔顿·罗伊说，“我曾经问过中国总理：中国统计数据中最可靠的部分是什么？他说，都不可靠，但是，它们能告诉你们方向。”

Here's what the latest GDP report tells us: Even the government acknowledges that China just had its worst economic growth since the Great Recession.

这就是上一季度gdp报告告诉我们的：连政府都承认，这是中国自金融危机以来的最低增速。

But it's also a reminder to the world that it might not be that bad. China is not back where it was in 2009.

但是，仍然有一些信息告诉世界，它可能没那么糟糕。中国并没有回到它的2009年。

The country may be in "mini-panic" mode, but it's not in get to the emergency room right now mode.

中国可能处于一个“低烈度恐慌”模式，但是，并不会马上进入真正的恐慌模式。

Investors around the world recognize this. It's why there isn't a major market sell-off today like there was in August.

全球投资者都相信这点。这就是为什么现在并没有出现类似8月份的股市崩盘。

There are signs China is stabilizing

这表明，中国经济正在稳定中

Frankly, the data coming out of China isn't as terrible as some feared over the summer.

坦白的说，中国的数据并没有夏天那么糟糕。

The Chinese stock market has stabilized -- it's actually up 15% this month alone.

中国股市已经稳定——本月，它独自上升了15%。

More importantly, there are some decent signs that Chinese consumers are still spending. Retail and property sales have been ticking up. That helps offset the manufacturing slowdown.

更重要的是，有一些正面的信号表明中国消费者们仍在消费。零售和房地产销售已经开始上升。这有助于抵消制造业衰退。

To get a truer sense of what's going on in the China, research firm Sanford Bernstein keeps an eye on sales of movie tickets, cars, mobile phones and Alibaba (BABA, Tech30)online transactions. It's weaker, but not bleak. Bernstein estimates third quarter growth was actually 4.1%.

为了获得中国的真实状况，调研公司伯恩斯坦持续关注电影票，汽车，智能手机和淘宝交易数据。它们正在下降，但是却没有步入寒冬。伯恩斯坦估计三季度增速为4.1%。

Capital Economics says China has stabilized. It puts growth at 4.5%.

凯投公司说，中国经济已经平衡。它提供的增速为4.5%。

"I don't think the economy has fallen apart in the third quarter," says Derek Scissors, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, who specializes in China.

美国企业研究所的一名中国问题专家德里克说，“我认为经济在三季度并没有崩溃。”

China economic growth is still massive

中国经济增长依然巨大。

It's still a lot of growth in the world's No. 2 economy.

这对世界第二大经济体来说，依然是一个很大的增长。

JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon summed it up well in an interview Monday on Bloomberg TV: "China has had 20 years of 10% growth uninterrupted, never before seen on this planet. They are going to have bumps in the road."

摩根大通公司CEO杰米·戴明在周一的彭博社采访时对其进行了总结：“中国经济已经不间断的保持了20年10%的增速，此前在地球上从未发生过。在它们前进的路上即将遇到障碍。”

But, even 4% growth for China's $10 trillion economy is still $400 billion. Keep in mind that's actually a lot more in dollar terms than the days of 10% growth a decade ago, when China's economy was only $2 trillion.

但是，即使4%的增速对中国超过10万亿美元的经济规模来说，也有4000亿的增长。记住，这实际上比二十年前10%增速所创造的美元计价增长要多得多，当时，中国的经济规模只有2万亿美元。



But China still has real problems

但是，中国也有实质性问题

The reality is China still has real problems, but they are unlikely to tank the Chinese economy, let alone the world economy, in the coming months.

实际上，中国仍然有实质性问题，但是，它们不可能在数月内让中国经济沉没，更不必说全球经济，

The twin challenges China faces are:

中国所要面对的两重挑战是：

    How to build an economy that does more than produce cheap stuff

    如何让经济不再以廉价商品为支柱

    Lots of debt. The Wall Street Journal has dubbed it a "debt bomb."

    过多债务。华尔街邮报称之为“债务炸弹。”

China's economy was built on making things for extremely low rates and exporting them around the world. Now China wants to transition to a middle class economy which is powered by its own citizens buying goods and services.

中国经济之前建立在生产极度廉价商品并向全世界出口的基础上。现在，中国希望转型至中产阶级经济，依靠它自己的国民购买商品和服务来实现。

"That transition will be a lot rockier than people think," prominent hedge fund manager Jim Chanos told CNN recently. Chanos, who was one of the first to spot Enron's problems, has been betting big against China in recent years.

杰出的对冲基金经理吉姆·查诺斯（最早指出安然公司问题的人之一，并在近几年来看衰中国）最近告诉CNN,“这种转型远比人们想象的更加艰难。”

China's debt bomb is ticking

中国债务炸弹正在进入倒计时

But the larger issue that Chanos has been warning about is debt.

但是，中国更大的问题是它的债务预警。

The federal government has a lot of cash on hand. But local governments, banks and companies have borrowed heavily.

中央政府握有大量现金。但是，地方政府，银行和企业已经负债累累。

A recent Mckinsey Global Institute report shows China's debt has skyrocketed since 2007. It's not quite as bad as Greece, but it has grown debt faster than Spain. China's debt-to-GDP ratio is now 240%, McKinsey says.

麦肯锡全球研究所近来提供的一个报告称，中国债务在2007年开始剧烈增长。麦肯锡说，并没有希腊那么糟糕，但却比西班牙增速更快。中国的债务——gdp比例现在是240%。

At some point that debt will come due and some organizations might not be able to pay.

在某一时刻，债务将会到期，而一些组织并没有能力偿还。

"You have a 1-2 punch coming in next decade [for China]: An aging society and debt," says Scissors, the AEI scholar. "It's a lethal combination for any country."

“在接下来的二十年里，你将以1-2比例进行对冲【针对中国】：一个老龄化社会和债务，”美国企业研究所专家德里克说，“这对任何社会都是致命的。”

This isn't really weighing on the markets now. But that time will come. Hopefully it doesn't strike when the rest of the world is struggling.

这并没有对当前的市场造成太大压力。但是，随着时间的推移。祈祷它不会对正在挣扎的世界其他国家带来过大冲击。



ExportChamp
9 hours ago
go pass usain gdp
china becomes the biggest economy in the world
like china is now the world number one ppp countrs.
china is world export champion
china is vise world champion in trading surplus.
every month 60 billion trading surplus.

在gdp上超过美国
中国成为全球最大的经济体
就像中国现在是世界上以ppp标准的最大经济体。
中国是全球出口冠军
中国是贸易顺差全球冠军。
每个月都有600亿的贸易盈余。

Money User
9 hours ago
@ExportChamp well yes---I'd expect that the country with 4X as many people as the US will eventually pass the US when it comes to the size of the economy.  That's a no-brainer.

@ExportChamp 哦，是的——我预计这个人口等于美国四倍的国家在经济规模达到美国规模时能最终超越美国。明摆着的事。

alphacat401
9 hours ago
@ExportChamp What is usain?

@ExportChamp usain是指啥？

Brew1212
9 hours ago
@ExportChamp It is your 60 billion trading surplus that is both your biggest strength and your biggest weakness.  China has a monthly GDP generously estimated at $566B. That means if China had balanced trade they would go from 7% growth to shrinking by 4%. Of course, that oversimplifies it. Actual growth would shrink by much more than 4%.
China relies on other peoples wealth to sustain themselves.

@ExportChamp 你600亿美元的顺差既是最大的优势也是最大的劣势。中国每月的gdp规模估计为5660亿美元。中国如果实现贸易平衡，它们的增速会从7%下降至4%。当然，这过于简单化了。真实增速会收缩超过4%。
中国依靠其他国家的财富供养自己。

Money User
9 hours ago
@Brew1212 @ExportChamp all countries with significant exports or imports are in the same boat.  Relying on other people's wealth to sustain themselves.

@Brew1212 @ExportChamp 所有重要的进出口大国都是一条绳上的蚂蚱。都在依赖其他国家的财富供养自己。

Brew1212
9 hours ago
@Money User @Brew1212 @ExportChamp Theoretically, if trade is balanced then both countries gain because of gains in cost or efficiency. The problem is only when trade becomes unbalanced.

@Money User @Brew1212 @ExportChamp 理论上说，如果贸易平衡了，那么，两个国家都会因价格和效率上的收益而获利。所说的问题只会出现在贸易变得不平衡时。

Money User
9 hours ago
@Brew1212 @Money User @ExportChamp right---in the case of balanced trade, both countries rely on others' wealth.

@Brew1212 @Money User @ExportChamp 正确——如果贸易平衡，每个国家都会依赖其他国家的财富。