福布斯6月5日新闻：为何中国对太阳能项目紧急刹车？ [美国媒体]

Chinese solar companies sold offsharply on Monday following an announcement by the Chinese government that itwould take measures that may curb the astronomical growth of its solarindustry.

周一，中国的太阳能企业产品被大幅抛售。在此之前，中国ZF宣布，将会采取切实的措施，抑制中国太阳能行业的爆炸性增长。

The South China Morning Post reported:
"A joint statement put out onFriday by the National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Financeand National Energy Administration said the allocation of quotas for newprojects had been halted until further notice, and tariffs on electricity generatedfrom clean energy will be lowered by 0.05 yuan per kilowatt hour, a cut of 6.7to 9 per cent depending on the region, effective June 1."
The Chinese government indicated thatthe curtailment was aimed at “promoting the solar energy sector’s sustainabledevelopment, enhancing its development quality and speeding up reduction ofsubsidies.”

《南华早报》报道如下：
国家发展和改革委员会、财政部和国家能源局在周五发布了联合声明，新项目的审批已经暂时停止，何时重启将另行通知。清洁能源的补贴每千瓦时将下调0.05元。各个地区根据自己的实际情况，其实际下调幅度为6.7%至9%。这个措施从6月1号开始生效。中国ZF表示，削减对该行业补贴的目的是“促进太阳能行业的可持续发展，提高其发展质量，加快行业自立自强”。

Of course, China isn't the firstcountry to slash subsidies for renewable energy, but they are in a differentposition than developed countries like Germany and Spain, where power demandwas relatively stable and renewables were helping to replace power derived fromfossil fuels and nuclear power. China's energy consumption, on the other hand,is growing rapidly. As a result, the country has had an aggressive "all ofthe above" energy strategy. China has added solar photovoltaic (PV)capacity faster than any other energy source and has done so at a rate fasterthan any other major country.

当然，中国并不是第一个削减可再生能源补贴的国家。德国和西班牙曾经也实行这样的政策，但是中国与这两个国家是不同的。德国与西班牙是发达国家，他们的电力需求相对稳定，在这两个国家，他们正在谋求用可再生能源来取代化石燃料和核能发电。另一方面，中国的能源消耗正在迅速增长。其结果就是中国政府几乎想尽了一切办法，采用各种方式来扩大自己的能源生产。与世界上其他国家相比，中国对于发展太阳能光伏的力度是空前的，太阳能的装机容量正在快速的增长，其速度是全世界最快的。

A primary motivation for its solar PVinvestments is China’s need to rein in pollution. But China also knows it facesa future in which oil supplies are depleting while electric vehicles areproliferating. Thus, China sees renewables – and solar PV in particular – as acritical area of focus. To put China's growth in perspective, in 2017 aloneChina added 53 gigawatts (GW) of new solar PV capacity. That addition wasgreater than the total solar PV capacity of any country at the beginning of2017:

中国在太阳能光伏上面挹注了大量的资源，这主要是为了解决中国的污染问题。但中国也知道，石化资源正在枯竭，但是中国现在的电动车发展迅速，而电动车所需使用的电还是来自于化石能源。因此，中国认为可再生能源，尤其是太阳能光伏发电是一个关键的发展领域。仅仅在2017年，中国新增的太阳能装机容量就达到了53千兆瓦，这比2017年以前的全世界所有国家的太阳能装机容量总和还要大。



Given China's growing need for cleanpower, China's decision to curb subsidies caught many -- including me -- bysurprise. Why would China make such a decision? The decision may be rooted inactions of the Trump Administration. Earlier this year, President Trumpannounced a 30% tariff on imported solar equipment that would last at least thenext four years. The decision was a response to a couple of U.S. solarcompanies charging that China's solar subsidies were allowing Chinese solarcompanies to undercut U.S. solar manufacturers.

考虑到中国对清洁能源日益增长的需求，中国限制补贴的决定让包括笔者在内的许多人感到意外。那么，中国为什么要做出这样的决定呢？据推测，这一决定可能要追溯到特朗普政府。今年早些时候，特朗普总统宣布对进口太阳能设备征收30%的关税，这一关税将至少持续四年时间。这一决定是应美国几家太阳能公司的要求而做出的。这些公司指责中国的太阳能补贴允许中国太阳能企业以不公平的优势削弱美国太阳能制造商的利益。

Because China is the world's leadingconsumer of solar power, I didn't expect this decision to have a huge impact onChina's solar industry. But now that a larger trade war looms, China may havemade a decision to signal to the U.S. that it will stop allowing Chinese solarpanel makers to substantially undercut U.S. manufacturers. The"winners" here may be a few U.S. solar companies, but the overallgrowth rate of the solar industry may suffer. In the long run, solar PV isstill certain to outgrow every other energy category, but in the short termthis decision is going to create a lot of uncertainty around the industry.

中国是全世界最大的太阳能消费国。从目前来看，我不认为这一决定会对中国的太阳能产业产生巨大影响。但是现在状况有点复杂。中国与美国之间一场规模更大的贸易战即将爆发，中国想向美国发出一个信号——中国将大幅度削减对美出口的太阳能产品。在这场竞赛当中，“赢家”可能是美国本地的太阳能公司。但是，太阳能行业的整体发展可能会受到很大的影响。从长远来看，太阳能光伏发电依然会超过很多传统能源生产模式。但是，从短期来看，这一决定讲给行业带来极大的不确定性。