中国可以和平崛起吗？ [美国媒体]

-------------译者：Z4CK-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

ndy Lee Chaisiri I am a student of culture
Written Apr 29 2014

  Did America rise Peacefully？

请看下图，美国是和平崛起的吗？



Did Britain rise Peacefully?

英国是和平崛起的吗？


 
Did Russia rise Peacefully?

俄罗斯呢？这个国家是和平崛起的吗？


 
Did Japan rise Peacefully?

日本是和平崛起的吗？


 
Did France rise Peacefully?

法国是和平崛起的吗？


 
Did Germany rise Peacefully?

德国是和平崛起的吗？



I'd love to see China rise 'peacefully', but that would require the People's Republic of China to be morally superior than every other major world power to come before them. 

我个人是非常期待中国能够“和平崛起”，但是这需要一个前提，即中国在国家层面上的道德基准比以上所提及的国家都要来得高。

But that's the audacity of hope, isn't it?

不过，这也许注定是奢望。


-------------译者：Wendypanying-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Pierre M Coupet30 votes Show
The word "rise" is relative.  You can rise to various levels.  If you mean "to rise to the top of of the food chain and become the world's most powerful nation" then that is a completely different matter.   
As we speak China has already peacefully risen to become the world's largest economy (by the end of 2014)  although their GDP per capita falls far behind that of the US.   Militarily they have been rising slowly but surely since the day they acquired the nuclear bomb. 
As of lately they are no longer coy about letting us know that they are--and/or have been doing so secretly for quite some time---making "massive investments" in their military in order to gain formal acknowledgment of their status as an undisputed major military superpower able to project their influence way beyond their regional borders. 
From a military manpower standpoint they are the largest major military superpower. 
From a military scientific commercial high-tech and space technology standpoint their scientists have also come a long long way. 
Therefore  we can safely say that China has already risen to become one of the top 3 major military superpowers.  All it takes now in order to become the world's leading and undisputed military and economic superpower is a major military weapon technology discovery that can render obsolete all existing nuclear weapons.    
Although there are some people out there on the fringe who claim that such technology already exists I will wait till such government comes out in the open before giving it any sort of credence. 
Will they "violently fall" as a result of military misadventures in the same way or fashion that other military superpowers have done so throughout history   I guess it's safe to say "most likely."   
After all what use is it being a military superpower if you can't flex your muscles a bit in order to either get others to do your bidding or to convince them to stay out of your way?   That's the whole idea of being a military superpower.   That is the way it has always been since time immemorial and for as long as we are human beings  that is the way it will always be.   
This is one bet I can safely make -- and win -- not only now but also for as long as our planet continues to exist.  Unfortunately I won't be around to collect within the next 20+ years.

关于这一点我可以保险地打赌——并且获胜——不仅仅是现在，一直到未来，只要地球还存在。遗憾的是，在接下来的20多年里，我可能不在了，不能验证我判断的正确了。
      “崛起”这个词是相对而言的。你可以崛起到不同的阶段。如果你的意思是“崛起到食物链的顶端，成为世界上最强大的国家”，那么就是完全另外一回事了。中国已经（于2014年年底之前）和平崛起为世界第一大经济体，尽管其人均国民生产总值远远落后于美国。军事方面，中国自其获得原子弹之日起就一直缓慢而坚定地崛起着。
      近来他们不再忸忸怩怩不让我们知道他们正在——或者说一直在偷偷做这件事很久了——在军事方面进行“巨额投资”，来获得正式认可成为一个有能力在地区边界之外广大区域投射影响力的无可争议的主要军事超级大国。
       从军队人数的角度来说，中国拥有世界上最庞大的武装部队。
       从军事科技、商用高科技以及空间技术的角度来说，他们的科学家们也走过了一段很长的路。  
       因此我们可以肯定地说中国已经崛起为世界排名前三的主要军事超级大国之一。现在要成为全球领袖和无可争议的军事和经济超级大国，中国需要的只是一项武器技术方面的巨大发现，来淘汰掉现存所有的核武器。
       尽管有些边缘人士宣称这样的技术已经存在，在某个政府出来公开证明之前，我还是对这一说法的真实性持保留态度。
       至于中国会不会像历史上其他军事超级大国一样因为军事冒险意外而“突然倒下”，我猜可以确定的说“很有可能”。
       说到底，如果你不能展示自己的肌肉让别的国家听你的话或者说服他们不要挡你的路的话，成为一个军事超级大国有什么用呢？这就是成为军事超级大国的全部意义啊。从不知名的远古时代起，只要我们还是人类，事情就一直是这样。关于这一点我可以保险地打赌——并且获胜——不仅仅是现在，一直到未来，只要地球还存在。遗憾的是，在接下来的20多年里，我可能不在了，不能验证我判断的正确了。

-------------译者：未树oo-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Eric Vicini14 votes Show
Are you implying that China is going to seek war and conflict with the other world powers particularly the US?

你是在暗示中国想要寻求和世界上其他的强国的战争和冲突吗？尤其是美国？

Joonleng Tan21 votes Show
America's expansion to its current borders was not peaceful. But it was not responsible for WWI or WWII which were the events that catapulted it into superpower status. America's involvement in Western Europe and the Pacific were reactions to aggressions by the Axis powers.

美国现在的领土面积并不是通过和平手段获得的。但是导致美国成为超级强国地位的一战和二战并非美国引发的，是美国为了应对邪恶轴心的侵略才在西欧和太平洋作出回应。

In addition the transition from pax Britannica to pax Americana was largely peaceful and the result of Britain's declining influence over the Commonwealth. In effect while America's influence over the western hemisphere was largely violent and imperial its influence over the rest of the world was achieved almost by default. It was the means by which this influence was maintained / continued that proved to be more problematic. Put it brutally the reason why America is always fumbling when it comes to ruling the rest of the world is because it was handed a great and vast empire almost by accident and it doesn't know what the fuck to do with it.

此外，从大不列颠统治下的和平转到美国的过度期是非常顺利平静的。这个结果导致了英国在英联邦的影响力下降。事实上，当美国在西半球产生非常暴力的帝国的影响的时候，它在其它国家的影响力几乎是通过默认的形式实现的。真正有问题的是美国维持这种影响力的方式。可以说，美国之所以在统治世界时老出岔子，是因为美国成为帝国几乎是意料之外的事情，所以不知道怎么去运作这么大的一个帝国。

 -------------译者：Z4CK-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Shashank Sharma

请问是否有好心人能告诉我一下，上面评论”英国是和平崛起的吗？”那张图的意思？

Tris Nguyen12 votes Show
Brazil Canada Japan Australia and even Germany all rose peacefully in the 20th century. All your examples (except for Russia) are from the 19th century. If you still insist on citing them that only demonstrates the fact that China mindset is still stuck in the 19th century (Opium Wars) when others have moved forward.

巴西，加拿大，日本，澳大利亚，甚至德国这几个国家都是在20世纪和平崛起的（注：发表此评论的人显然不知道自己在说什么），所以你列举的例子（除了俄罗斯）的国家都是发生在19世纪的事情。如果你坚持要列举这些例子的话，那说明你依然把中国想成了她在19世纪的样子（鸦片战争时期），而不是她现在（21世纪）的状态。

Philip Lee
“Peaceful Rise” is an oxymoron. Power is a zero sum game.

“和平崛起”是一个充满矛盾色彩的词汇，权力从来都是零和游戏。

Ravi Teja
im just wondering...what else is out there for china to RISE?
Their motto is to DE-AMERICANIZE the world...they may succeed partially.....
i mean they can have the cakebut they wont be able to eat it.cause the cake is served on an ENGLISH plate(if you know what i mean).

我很好奇，中国到底还有哪些方面可供她“崛起”。
他们的目标只是把逐渐的让这个世界“去美国化”，中国也许能够在部分程度上做到这一点。
我想说，中国也许可以得到这块蛋糕，但是他们却并没有能力去消化这块蛋糕，因为装蛋糕的盘子依然属于西方世界。（意指西方文明依然是游戏规则制定者，在全球的影响依然根深蒂固）

-------------译者：fdv-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Suttichart Denpreuktham
so China can't rise peacefully?
that's unfortunate - because they will be resisted to the bitter the end
that's has nothing to do with their moral relativity at all

你的意思是中国不会和平崛起了？
这是个不幸的事实，他们会被抵抗到底
毕竟这和他们的道德高低一点也不沾边。

Viswanath Ajikumar
Lots of people saying India did and I agree for one....but China also kind of already did. I doubt the question was about the past when India and China rose and stood tall on their own and were self sufficient enough to do so without conflict.
In the modern world unfortunately Andy Lee Chaisiri is right.

很多人说印度和平崛起了，我也同意。同样我认为中国也和平崛起了。在历史上，印度和中国确实是和平崛起的，他们依靠自己，自给自足。而如果放到现代世界， ndy Lee Chaisir的看法是正确的，即没有一个现代国家是和平崛起的。

Cylion Lau4 votes Show
Come to China all u want to know can be found here. Stop being amused by politicians and medias of your nation. Seeing is believing.

来中国吧，这里你可以找到你想了解的一切。别被你们国家的政客和媒体所糊弄，一切眼见为实

Ayako Yamaguchi4 votes Show
All those powers you mention above rose in the time when war was not strongly restricted. So they could use force to get what they wanted.
But

你以上提到的所有的国家在崛起时，战争没有受到严格的限制。所以那时通过暴力（战争）可以解决一切问题。

Indrajeet Kamat1 vote by Xiaodong Li
India did... Gandhi made an example of it... For the world to see.

印度和平崛起了，甘地给世界树立了一个榜样。

-------------译者：fdv-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Sundeep Kumar1 vote by Andy Lee Chaisiri
Good point. But Andy isn't the case that it's not really "China rising" but China taking its rightful place at the top after a temporary setback from 1820 - 2020 in a 5000 year history?

有道理。但是Andy，从中国5000年的历史看，难道可以不看成是真正的"中华崛起"，而是在经历一个短暂的挫折（1820年-2020年）后，中国又回到了原本的位置(巅峰)吗？

Andy Zhang1 vote by Luscious Chen
The time is really different nowadays — potential wars are suppressed by nukes like a pressure pot with the valve closed. Even though the tension of the world is so on the edge various nations still have to restrain their rage. So if China would rise it has to in any sense rise peacefully.

今天时代不同了，潜在的战争被核弹环绕着，就像压力罐的阀门。尽管世界正处于紧张形势的边缘，各国还是得控制他们的情绪。所以如果中国会崛起，她就必须和平崛起。

-------------译者：龙腾翻译总管-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

John Smith3 votes Show
I'd say that transformation from communism to democracy was relatively peaceful in Poland.
Obviously PRC communist party would need to be willing to start talks with the opposition which is unlikely at this point of time. I hope it will change in future but it doesn't seem like Chinese are interested in democracy.
You'd probably lynch me for what I'm about to say but I think communism could work out if it'd start in country with a less violent history than Russia. Also communism has bad reputation mainly due to Stalin. If Trotzky would take the country after Lenin died things could be very different.

在波兰，共产主义向民主的转变是相对和平的。
显然，中共得愿意和反对派进行对话，但是现在不太可能。我希望这一点在未来可以得到改变，但是貌似中国人对民主并不感兴趣。
如果共产主义的出生地不在那么暴力的俄罗斯，我觉得共产主义是有可能获得成功的，我说这句话后你可能会想处死我。共产主义之所以有那么坏的名声，主要归咎于斯大林。如果列宁死后托洛茨基能接管俄罗斯，那事情就会变得完全不一样了。

Paul Snider2 votes Show
Peace is relative.
No major country in history is blameless and hasn't caused the death of a single innocent. None.

和平是相对的。
历史上没有哪个大国是清白的，都导致无辜的人死亡。