美国作为世界最强权的地位还能保持多久？ [美国媒体]

-------------译者：Jaya-审核者：大汉故土------------

How long can US last as the most powerful country in the world?

美国作为世界最强权的地位还能保持多久？


-------------译者：zzzzbbbyyy-审核者：伊织姫------------

Dan Holliday I am an American
Written Dec 31 2015
"The Most Powerful"? 

“最强大”?

Until about 2050 give or take a decade.  But it won't end the way people think.  Until that time it will be very difficult for anybody to really challenge the US. Even if China reaches total parity by then (which would be hard -- a blue water navy is incredibly incredibly difficult; even now China is tinkering with an air craft carrier and it will take decades to build a fleet to challenge the US) it still won't be at parity with the network of American alliances:  the US Japan Australia South Korea New Zealand Philippines Thailand Singapore Canada and all the countries in Western Europe (except for Switzerland) Israel Saudi Arabia Kuwait Bahrain and Qatar.  The core of that alliance being the US Australia New Zealand Canada and the UK with Japan South Korea Germany and France being in close proximity.

大约在2050年的前后10年左右。但是它不会以人们所想象的那种方式终结。到那时之前，对于任何真正挑战美国的国家将是非常困难的。即使那时中国达到和美国同等水平(这将是困难的——一个蓝水海军的建立是非常非常困难的，即使是现在中国正摆弄着一个航母，它仍将需要几十年的时间来构建一个舰队来挑战美国)仍然不会与美国的联盟网络相称：美国日本韩国澳大利亚新西兰菲律宾泰国新加坡加拿大和西欧各国(瑞士除外)以色列沙特阿拉伯科威特巴林和卡塔尔。这个联盟的核心是美国，澳洲，新西兰，加拿大和英国，而日韩德法紧密围绕在周围。

Wait!  There's more!  Not only will China be contending with the American block of nations to its east but dealing with a very-quickly-arming-and-industrializing India to its south.  India will be vying for the same natural resources and markets as China.  They don't quite get along yet and are on about as cozy a relationship with China as the US is.  China also has an on-again/off-again relationship with Russia to the north that it can never depend on.  The US has no such issues (and is in a cozy trading unx with its neighbors). 

等等！还有更多！不仅中国将与美国在东部竞争，而且有着快速武装起来并工业化的印度在中国南部。印度将与中国争夺同样的自然资源和市场。他们还不很和睦，处于美国与中国的关系那样。中国在北部也有一个和反复无常的俄罗斯的关系——它永远不能被依赖。美国没有这样的问题（在一个舒适的邻国环境中)。

Wait! There's more!  All the nations in the American block favor a certain world order that they currently exist in and any change to that order threatens them.  The US need not be the single most powerful country on the planet it just needs to be the dominant force in that bloc to keep them from having to spend a 2-4 times as much on defense as they already do to defend themselves.  Then collectively and with the US buttressing them the total defense expenditures are more than any other two or three nations on Earth outside that bloc could ever counter. 

等等！还有！（你丫尿频吗？）在美国集团的各国乐于保持目前存在的世界秩序和反感威胁他们的任何变化。美国不需要成为这个星球上最强大的国家，美国只要成为这个集团的主导力量即可，这样一来，将来美国在国防上的开销就没必要达到目前国防开销的2-4倍了。最后它们与美国共同支撑的国防开支总额超过任何其他地球上的两个或三个剩下的国家能组成的集团。

And that's the point. 

这就是重点。

-------------译者：zzzzbbbyyy-审核者：BXHin1995------------

I pick 2050 but it could be like 2060.  But the way technology is advancing —smart self-improving automated technology ( the industrial kind:  from mining to [everything in between] to delivery of products to your home by drones; automated surgery Watson AI tech for diagnosing and research) genetic engineering and nano technology— I highly doubt our world order will last beyond that time.  It's not so much that Brazil or India or China will topple that order so much as the entire way that we make politics will come to an end and be replaced by something else that we today cannot possibly imagine without significant anxiety and no small amount of confusion. 

我选择2050但也可以是2060。但技术发展道路就是进步-完善-自动化技术（工业类：从采矿到【介于两者之间】到发货到无人机送到家；诊断和研究用的沃森AI技术自动手术）基因工程和纳米技术——我高度怀疑我们的世界秩序将持续到那个时候。与其说，巴西或印度或中国将推翻它，不如说整个人类将使得现代政治走到尽头，取而代之的是别的由于我们今天因为没有显着的焦虑和少量的混乱而不可能想象的东西。

Even today we notice a world of total interconnectedness.  It's getting even more interconnecteder with every passing day.  What we see right now is just the tiniest tip of the iceberg.  Some people call it the "internet of everything" where literally everything we make is "woken up" and has the ability to communicate with everything else that we make.  Clothing to refrigerators sidewalks to cell phones roads to light bulbs vehicles (self driving of course) to the very furniture you sit on.  Everything will be networked and talking to everything else.  And again that's just the very tip of the iceberg. 

即使在今天我们也注意到世界的联系。它每天都变得更加相互关联。我们现在看到的只是微小的冰山一角。有些人称之为“万物互联网”字面上我们做的一切都是“觉醒”并有能力连接我们做的一切。衣服、冰箱、人行道、手机、道路、汽车灯泡(当然自驾车)、你正在坐的家具。一切都会网络化，与一切事物对话。再次重申这只是冰山一角。

And that really does beg the question (but not really because that's not the proper use of that term. . . moving on):  What relevance will we have where everything is made automatically where everything talks to everything else where the world we live in is networked and changes faster than anything we can imagine today?  It's really a frightening thought.

这其实是回避问题实质（但是也并非如此，因为这个词不是这么用的。。。继续）：当一切都是自动化制造出来，一切都相互交谈，整个世界都是互相连网，以及当世界的变化超乎我们今天的想象时，我们人类又有何轻重？这真是一个可怕的想法。

Nothing will be the same.

没有什么会和现在相同了。

Will Europe be an international player by the year 2100?

欧洲在2100年还会是一个国际级选手吗？

-------------译者：Hairinho-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Ernest W. Adams Game Design Consultant Author and Professor
upxed Jan 4
That really depends on whether it's smart or stupid. This isn't a Roman Empire situation in which barbarian hordes might invade from beyond the borders. There are no barbarian hordes left.

那真的取决于它是聪明还是愚蠢了。这已经不是那个蛮族会从国境之外侵略和涌入的罗马帝国时代了。现在已经没有蛮族之说了。

If the US persists in its current policy of allowing the wealthy to accumulate obscene amounts of money while a significant percentage of the population depends on the government to feed it and the wealthy are allowed to write tax policy so that they don't have to pay their share then the US will be a sad shell of its former self by 2050 or so. The time will come when there's no middle class left only the extremely rich who won't pay taxes and the extremely poor who can't. This would squander the brainpower of the USA. Already American childhood education is lagging behind that of much of the developed world. This is called "being stupid."

如果美国坚持它的允许富人去进行罪恶的金钱积累，而大部分人口靠政府来养活的金钱政治，并且让富人制定财税政策以便于他们不用缴纳相应的份额，那么美国将在2050年左右成为一个基于它从前的空壳。当失去了中产阶级，当美国仅仅只剩下极其富有而不缴纳税款的和赤贫而没有能力缴纳税款的两个阶级的时候，这个灾难就将到来。这将浪费美国的“智能”。美国孩子的教育已经落后于很多的发达国家了，这就是“愚化”。

If on the other hand the United States were to improve its social safety net improve upward mobility rein in its absurd defense spending invest in education (this always pays off; educated taxpayers need fewer social services get better jobs and pay more taxes) encourage the movement of money in the economy and close the appalling tax loopholes that allow Google to pretend to be an Irish company... then there's really no reason why the US can't retain its global dominance indefinitely. This is called "being smart."

另一方面，如果美国提升自己的社会保障网，促进阶级的向上流动，控制荒唐的国防开销，投资教育（这总会得到回报；受过教育的纳税人需要更少的社会福利，能找到更好的工作，并且缴纳更多税收），鼓励经济领域金钱的流动，并弥补骇人的使谷歌假装为一个爱尔兰公司的税收漏洞，那么美国没有理由不是世界的主导。这就是“睿智”。

We have the brains; we have the resources; we have the alliances. The question is whether we will allow them to rot due to inattention and imbecilic policies like "trickle-down."
 
我们有智慧，有资源，有同盟。问题在于我们是否允许它们由于疏忽和愚蠢的政策（比如涓滴经济政策）而腐坏。

-------------译者：Hairinho-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Vivek Tulja Indian-American. Rocket Scientist. Golf Addict.
Written Aug 26
I worry far more about internal divisions and cultural shifts than external threats. There is no real external threat on the horizon - at least not for the foreseeable future. In my view the person who hurt America the most was Elbridge Gerry - former Governor of Massachusetts and Vice President under James Madison. He was the person that the process of “gerrymandering” was named after.

相比起外部的威胁，美国内部的分化和文化的转变更加使我担心。至少在可预见的未来，美国并没可见的真正的外部威胁。在我看来，麻省前政府官员，詹姆斯·麦迪逊任期内时任副总统的Elbridge Gerry才是那个尤为伤害了美国的人。他就是那个被后世称为“杰瑞蝾螈”（为本党利益改划选举区分）的始作俑者。

We have already had a civil war. And thanks to gerrymandering we are becoming more and more extreme - to the point where we see the other political party as evil incarnate and a mortal enemy. That’s not an environment in which democracy can thrive. I remember good old days when Republicans and Democrats would go out for drinks and dinner after a long day on Capitol Hill. Outside of work they were friends. Now such association is considered treasonous. Fanaticism is taking over in every walk of life and I fear that someday these divisions will become deep enough to give rise to another civil war. There is total mistrust of the other side and there is no civil discourse left.

我们之前就有过南北战争。而我们的那些观点，那些使我们觉得另一党派是邪恶化身和人类公敌的观点，由于“杰瑞蝾螈”，变得越来越极端。民主并不能在那样的环境中成长。我犹记得那些过去美好的日子，在长时间的国会拉锯后，共和民主两党可以相聚言欢。在工作之外，他们是朋友。而如今，那样的关系却被视为背叛。这种狂热和盲信正在占领生活的方方面面，而且我担心会有一天，这些分化会越来越深，并足以引发另一场内战。现在有的是双方之间全面的不信任，友好对话已经不复存在。

My pet peeve. I recall President George HW Bush saying something like: “I don’t care whether we make potato chips or microchips.” (Don’t remember his exact words.) I felt really sad upon hearing it because USofA is the country which invented much of the modern world. A country that makes the world’s best potato chips cannot be in the same league as the one that makes the best microchips. Our smartest young people now want to get an MBA in Finance and go work on Wall Street which produces nothing. In my generation the smartest Americans dreamed of MIT Stanford Berkeley Caltech and wanted to go to work for one of the big computer/software companies or move to Silicon Valley to start their own companies. The results were magnificent. But if we stop producing great scientists and engineers we will lose our technological edge and thereby our military edge. In Russia engineers and scientists are still revered while we denigrate ours as nerds and geeks. We have all but dismantled our military-industrial complex that produced not just great weapons but also great fundamental inventions such as transistor and wireless communications … these inventions and many others like them have dramatically changed the world.

我简直不能忍！我回想起老布什所说的类似于“我不在意我们是生产薯片还是芯片”（具体的我记不清了）的话。我听了感觉非常的沮丧，因为美国是一个对于现代社会的创造贡献最多的国家。一个能生产世界上最好的薯片的国家并不能与生产最好的芯片的国家相提并论。我们最优秀的年轻人，现在只是想拿到一个经济学的MBA学位，然后去华尔街从事那些不生产任何产品的工作。在我的那个年代，最优秀的美国人梦想着去MIT、斯坦福、伯克利、加州理工学习，然后去一家大的IT公司工作，或者是去硅谷创建自己的公司。这样所得到的成果是惊人的。但是，如果我们停止培养杰出的科学家和工程师，我们将会失去我们技术的以及相关的军事上的优势。当我们把科学家和工程师诋毁为傻子和怪胎时，它们却在俄罗斯被称赞与尊敬。我们拥有所有那些不仅生产强大的武器，还生产那些真正改变世界的但又基本的包括晶体管、无线设备的基本的产品的军工企业，但是我们却在拆除它们。

Thanks to globalization we don’t manufacture clothes or suitcases or furniture or such mundane items any more. Our economy is increasingly dependent on scientific and technological invention + innovation. Which means we will eventually lose our economic muscle and thereby military power unless we continue to send our best minds into MIT and Caltech rather than B-schools. But I deeply deeply fear that with our internal divisions we are heading towards a civil war. I am sincerely hoping that another modern-day Abraham Lincoln will be around to save the unx and teach us how to love and respect each other again.

正是由于全球化，我们不再生产类似于衣服、箱包、家具的生活用品了。我们的经济愈发依赖于科技的发明与创新。除非我们继续把最优秀的人送去MIT和加州理工而非商学院，否则我们很有可能将失去我们经济的和相关的军事的力量。但是我深深地担心随着我们内部分化，我们正在走向另一场内战。我真心希望一个“现代版林肯”的出现去拯救我们的国家，并且重新教会我们如何去尊重与爱护彼此。

-------------译者：Jaya-审核者：白色的黑猫------------

Lorcan Nagle
Written Jan 20
Like many people have said how do you define power?  The US has a strong economy and a large military but how much do those things count in the modern world?

1月20日
像好多人说的那样，应该如何定义强大呢？美国有着强大的经济和军事能力，但在当前世界中这些又能有多大的作用呢？

The second thing to consider is does it matter who's powerful?  If you live in a developed world and are middle-class or better you've got a comfortable life.  I live in Ireland and there's just about nothing that an American can get that I can't get here - so why does it matter where I live?

第二个要考虑的事情是谁强大又有什么关系呢？如果你是生活在发达国家的中产阶级或以上群体，你将会有一个很舒适的生活。我在爱尔兰，而美国人能有的在这里我都能有，所以生活在哪里又有什么关系呢？

I get the feeling that as the 21st century continues the concept of nationalism is going to continue to dissipate especially as the developing countries continue to develop and more and more of their population join the middle class.

我感觉在21世纪国家主义的概念将会继续减弱，尤其是随着发展中国家的进步和他们中越来越多的民众步入中产阶级。

-------------译者：Linsanity2018-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Rass Bariaw Have lived here since the early '80's.
Written Jan 4
We should witness dramatic changes within the next 50 years; definitely within 100.  
Between China Brasil South Asia and Africa rising the realignment of the world's geo-politics appears inevitable.
It would behoove America to strategize wisely play nice and sincerely invest in its positive image around the world or else pay the exorbitant price that declining powers always pay.
They do not say "payback is a bitch" for nothing.

在接下来的50年中，我们将见证世界的重大变化，这一切必定会在百年之内发生。
随着中国、巴西、南亚和非洲的崛起，世界地缘政治的重组似乎无可避免。
美国应该精心谋划，妥善行动，并真心实意地在世界范围内塑造自己的正面形象，否则就要像任何衰落中的大国那样付出高昂的代价。

-------------译者：Linsanity2018-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Robert J. Kolker lives in New Jersey
upxed Jan 7
The U.S. is currently fighting the Forever War to retain the hegemony it acquired as the major power  following WW2.   But the world is flatter than it used to be.  Various tropes and modalities that were once owned by the U.S. exclusively have become wide spread.  American hegemony will become the victim of its own success. 
Think back to an earlier time.  The Barbarians did not initially want to overthrow Rome.  Not at all.  They wanted to be Romans too!  Well in many significant ways the world is becoming all too American or Americanized.  Now if our political leadership is wise they will use this process and trend  to let our hegemony go to others. It will be a weight off our shoulders.  We can be come simple and more virtuous again.   Once we stop trying to be World Cop  we can get back to our roots.   I think the 21 th century was be that last part of the 20 th century.  Perhaps by 2070  we will be relieved of the burden  of hegemony.   Ah what blessed relief.   We will let everyone else be "American" if they want to be and we will be able to get back running the farm and painting picket fences.

美国现在正打着无休止的战争，以维持它在二战后作为一个大国而获得的霸权。然而，世界比以往任何时候都更加扁平了。
一度为美国所独占的各种优异条件，现在都已是“旧时王谢堂前燕，飞入寻常百姓家”了。美国的霸权终将被其自身的成功所反噬。
回溯历史，那些蛮族起初并不想颠覆罗马帝国，一点都不想，他们也想成为罗马公民！
从许多重要方面来看，世界已经变得太过于“美国化”了。
现在，如果我们的领导人聪明的话，他们就会利用这一进程和趋势，将我们的霸权转移给其他国家。
这将会减轻我们肩上的负担，我们也可以再次变得生活简朴而富有美德。
一旦我们不再试图扮演“世界警察”的角色，我们就可以返璞归真。我认为当前的21世纪仍然只不过是20世纪的残余和延伸。
也许到了2070年，我们将会卸下霸权的重担。终于有幸解脱了啊！
如果有其他任何人想扮演“美国人”的角色，就让他们去干吧，而我们也可以回归到悠然自得的田园生活。

-------------译者：magicqueen99-审核者：白色的黑猫------------

Wendy Krieger lives overseas and horrified at what happens in the US.
Written Dec 31 2015
A lot of countries are not really interested on being the 'world's policeman'.  Before WW1 there were a number of 'gun-boat diplomacy' events.  These caused a lot of tensions.

很多国家对充当“世界警察”并没有真的兴趣。一战之前有很多“炮舰外交”事件。这造成了很多紧张局势。

America could descend into isolationism again as it did between the wars.

美国可能像两次大战之间一样重陷孤立主义。

-------------译者：NaP-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Ed Cote Writer Philosopher Music Fan Foodie Socialist

Ed Cote 作家、哲学家、音乐迷、美食家、社会主义

Written Jan 18

写于1月18日

Not much longer. We're spent. Our culture is creatively bankrupt our society is mentally ill and our political system is completely corrupt. Not only do we
no longer innovate in anything important we can't even maintain what we have. We can no longer educate our children. We're having trouble even feeding ourselves without fruit vegetables and seafood imported from other countries and often harvested with slave labor. We waste a third of the food we produce while millions starve yet the food we do eat is killing us. We can't go to the movies without a risk of being murdered. Our police murder defenseless civilians apparently just for fun. We can't even fix a bridge anymore.

（美国最强）不会很久了。我们透支了。我们的文化迅速破产、我们的社会是精神病、我们的政治制度完全腐败。我们不仅在任何重要的事情上不再创新，我们甚至不能维持我们所拥有的重要的东西。我们不能再教育我们的孩子了。我们的蔬菜，水果和海产品都需要进口，否则养不活我们自己，而这些产品通常都是奴工产出的。我们浪费了我们生产的食物的三分之一，而数以百万计的人挨饿，但我们吃的食物正在杀死我们。我们连去电影院看电影都得担心会不会被人谋杀。我们的警察杀害手无寸铁的平民显然只是为了好玩。我们甚至不能再修一座桥。

But we can spend several trillion dollars on invading the wrong country poisoning our environment and an airplane that doesn't fly.

但是我们可以花上数万亿美元来入侵错误的国家、毒害我们的环境甚至一架飞机都不能飞.

If we are to survive as a nation we will probably have to sacrifice our empire. We have one last hope. Even if Sanders wins and isn't assassinated the next 2-3 years are going to be very hard for us all.

如果我们要作为一个国家而生存，我们将不得不牺牲我们的帝国特性。我们有最后一个希望。即使桑德斯（总统候选人）赢了而且没有被推翻，未来2-3年内对我们所有人来说生活也将很艰难。（ps：这是一个社会主义铁粉）

-------------译者：Jaya-审核者：白色的黑猫------------

Alevoor Rajagopal Amateur Strategic analyst
Written Dec 31 2015

Alevoor Rajagopal 业余战略分析师
2015年12月31日

I say as long as some other country dislodges US it's going to retain that position. Countries which can potentially challenge US have a lot to catch up before they can displace US.

我认为在被其它国家排挤之前，美国可以一直处于世界最强的位置。而那些有能力匹敌的国家在取代美国之前尚有很长的路要走。

Power of US can't be just measured in terms of tangible aspects alone but in combination with the soft power it wields. Building soft power like US did is time consuming and very hard. You need to have shareable commonality of some degree to have the soft influence to work in background.

对于美国实力的评估不能只注重有形的方面，还要结合它所具有的软实力。要想如同美国一样提升国家的软实力非常困难，且需要花很长的时间。必须在与其它国家的共性达到一定程度之后才能使所具备的软实力发挥作用。

Commonality of language culture with much of Europe Australia NZ and some pluralistic countries grants that US gives away and on top of that Hollywood command enviable influence in much of the globe which no aspirant can hope to develop in the near future. It's these that make countries want to follow you than war victories.

美国与大部分欧洲国家、澳大利亚、新西兰以及许多多元化国家有着相同的语言文化，美国向他国输出的援助，以及好莱坞在全球大部分地区令人无法企及的影响力。正是这些使其它国家更愿意追随美国。

I can sight an example here. India and Indians in general want to be associated with US for many things from strategic to soft issues such as jobs trades tourism and technology transfers despite a long standing history with USSR/Russia despite its blindness to Pakistani nuclear program and terrorist activities.

这里我可以举个例子。尽管印度和前苏联/俄罗斯的关系由来已久，尽管存在着巴基斯坦的核问题以及恐怖活动。但大体来讲印度人还是希望和美国从整体战略到劳务、贸易、旅游、技术转让等很多方面都保持联系。

So how long can US last as the most powerful country in the world? At least for the next decade or two.

所以，美国作为世界最强权的地位还能保持多久？至少10年或者20年。

-------------译者：Linsanity2018-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Michael Burrows
Written Feb 3
I would think no more than 40 years.  It could happen next month or 30 years from now.  I think we believe that a collapse would be some protracted event when it could happen.  It wasn't that long ago when the Secretary of the Treasury was telling members of congress that  martial law would be necessary if they didn't pass Tarp.  That may have been exaggerated for reasons of persuasion but it still is a strong indicator of how tenuous things were   in case nobody noticed there has been very little done to fix the cause of the 2008 meltdown.  In fact the banks are even bigger so there is little reason to think an 2008 event won't happen again.  The problem will be much bigger if it happens which would be a big enough problem but the bigger problem could be the American in vigorous revolt over the idea of the taxpayers bailing then out again.  Things could get very ugly very fast
As bad as that sounds there are even scarier possibilities.  What happens if the world loses confidence in the dollar?  If that were to happen it would make 2008 look like nothing.  There are numerous smart people implementing policies to prevent that from happening but that is not a guarantee.
There is also a lot of pissed off citizens for reasons from incarceration rates to immigration policy.  Currently most of that hostility is vented by being a donkey fighting elephants or being a conservative fighting liberals but there is always the chance people could focus on the power structure instead of each other.  There is a strong case for believing the political process and the justice system is rigged for those with power keeping that power.  If enough Americans start believing that things could get ugly because the people in power will not easily bend to the will of the people.
Then again there could be some science breakthrough that resets the world.  

我认为美国的强权至多只能再维持40年。它可能在下个月就终结，也可能在30年后才终结。
我认为大家都相信即便美国的霸权会崩溃，那也将是一个旷日持久的过程。
不久之前，财政部长告诉国会议员，如果他们不通过“问题资产救助计划（TARP）”的话，可能美国国内将会需要实施戒严。
这也许是为了说服国会议员而有意夸大的说辞，但它仍然强有力地表明了美国现在的局势是有多么地岌岌可危。
如果没人注意到的话，我要提醒你们，人们并未采取多少行动来解决导致2008年金融危机的根源。
事实上，银行现在越做越大，因此我们没有足够的理由认为2008年那样的局面不会重演。
如果那种局面重演的话，本身就已经是一个足够大的问题了。
但更大的问题在于美国民众对“纳税人花自己的钱帮助银行摆脱困境”这个主意的剧烈反抗。
局势可能很快就会变得十分险恶。
这听起来已经很糟糕了，可是还有一种可能的情况更吓人。如果世界对美元失去信心了，那会怎么样呢？
如果这种情况真的发生的话，2008年的金融危机与之相比就是小巫见大巫了。
有许许多多的聪明人实施着各种各样的政策，就是为了防止这种情况的发生，但也并非万无一失。
现在有很多美国人对于监禁率、移民政策等议题满腹怨气。
当前美国民众的大部分怒火都在驴象两党之争以及保守派和自由派之争中得以发泄。
但不能排除的是，民众可能会开始关注这个国家的权力结构，而不是他们所支持的党派之间的互相争斗。
民众有足够的理由相信，那些当权者已经操纵了美国的政治流程和司法体系，以使得自己能够保持长久掌权。
如果有足够多的美国人开始相信这一点，形势可能就会变得很糟糕，因为当权者们绝不会轻易地向人民的意志屈服。

当然话又说回来了，如果科学上出现了某些重大突破，就有可能让我们世界的局面焕然一新。
（译者注：例如可控核聚变实现突破的话，世界上由于能源问题而产生的矛盾争端就可能得到很大的缓解。）