动态图：美国轰炸后IS领地如何发生变化 [美国媒体]

How ISIS Territory Has Changed Since theU.S. Bombing Campaign Began
An animated illustration of a stalemate

自美国轰炸开始以来伊斯兰国的领地发生了怎样的变化：一副动态图展示僵局

KATHY GILSINAN  SEP 11, 2015
In an address to the nation this time lastyear, President Barack Obama outlined a plan to “degrade and ultimatelydestroy” ISIS. It was the eve of the 13th anniversary of the September 11attacks, and at that point the United States had already been bombing ISIS inIraq for about a month, having intervened as the group menaced the capital ofIraqi Kurdistan and threatened to wipe out the Yazidis, a religious minority.In late August and early September, the group beheaded the American journalistsJames Foley and Steven Sotloff in the Syrian desert, helping prompt anexpansion of U.S. airstrikes into Syria.

在去年今日的一个全国性讲话中，奥巴马总统勾勒出了一个用于“削弱并最终摧毁”伊斯兰国的计划。那是在911十三周年的晚上，并且那时美国已经在伊拉克对伊斯兰国进行了近一个月的轰炸，并在其逼近伊拉克库尔德人首府以及威胁灭绝雅兹迪人（一个宗教少数派）时进行了干涉。在8月末和9月初，伊斯兰国在叙利亚沙漠中将美国记者James Foley和Steven Sotloff斩首，导致美国的空袭扩展至叙利亚境内。

Obama said in his speech that the UnitedStates had already conducted 150 successful airstrikes against ISIS in Iraq. Ayear later, the United States military and its allies have conducted 6,700airstrikes across Iraq and Syria, sent more than 3,000 U.S. troops to Iraq, andtrained thousands more Iraqi troops as well as a handful of Syrian fighters.Here’s one critical indicator of how that campaign, Operation Inherent Resolve,is progressing: a look at how ISIS territory has changed in the year since theU.S.-led military campaign began.

奥巴马在其演讲中表示美国已经在伊拉克成功进行了150次针对ISIS的空袭。一年以后，美军及其盟友已经在伊拉克及叙利亚内进行了6700次空袭，在伊拉克部署了超过3000名美国士兵，并训练了数以千计的伊拉克部队以及一些叙利亚战士。这里有一个重要的关于“内部解决行动”（译：行动名，请wiki）的进展指标：观察ISIS的领地在美国领导的军事行动的一年以后发生了如何的变化。



Jackie Lay / Institute for the Study of War

（译：图名：ISIS圣所。黑色为ISIS控制区；红色为其攻击区；深粉红色为其支持区；浅绿色为伊拉克库尔德人控区）

Over the past year of U.S. and alliedairstrikes, combined with ground offensives by local forces, the Islamic Statehas lost territory in some areas and gained it in others. In the maps above,produced by the Institute for the Study of War, the black lines represent areaswhere ISIS holds its tightest control—encompassing roads and several largepopulation centers. Over time, the black splotches recede in places, namelynorthwestern Syria along the border with Turkey, outside Baghdad, and near theIraqi city of Tikrit; and expand in others, namely in central Syria nearPalmyra, and in Iraq near Ramadi, the capital of Anbar province.

在过去一年中美国及其盟友的空袭与当地地面军队的配合进攻下，伊斯兰国在一些地区失去了领地，但在其它地方获得了它。在上面的由战争研究院制作的图中，黑线代表ISIS严格控制的区域—包围着道路以及数个大型人口聚居地。随着时间流逝，黑色区块在叙利亚西北部与土耳其的交界处的巴格达周边，以及伊拉克城市提克里克附近收缩，却在诸如帕尔米拉附近的中叙利亚以及伊拉克境内的安巴尔省首府拉马迪附近扩张。

The maps also show that ISIS exerts varyingdegrees of control over the territories where it operates. As JenniferCafarella, an analyst at ISW, explained to me last year:

这张地图同样显示出ISIS在其行动的领地上施加着不同程度的控制，正如战争研究院的分析师Jennifer Cafarella去年向我解释的一样：

The attack zonesare the most straightforward and are meant to depict those areas in which ISIShas participated in or perpetrated armed clashes or kinetic engagements (suchas IEDs). Support zones are areas in which ISIS enjoys freedom of movement andfrom which such attacks are often staged: they are areas in which ISIS does notnecessarily possess defensible control, but in which ISIS forces cannonetheless travel and operate with relatively low risk. Control zones, then,are areas in which we have assessed ISIS to have a larger degree of defensiblecontrol ... in which a counter-ISIS force would be faced with serious ISISresistance.

“攻击区”直如其名，指那些ISIS正在或将要发动武装攻击或能够积极活动（例如各种简易爆炸装置）的区域。“支持区”指那些ISIS在其中享受着移动自由并作为发动攻击的准备地的区域。在这些地区ISIS不一定拥有防卫性的控制，但它们仍可以以较低的风险转移、行动。“控制区”指那些我们估计ISIS拥有相当程度的防卫性控制的地区，其中对ISIS的攻击将会遭遇严重的抵抗。

 

This does not add up to the territory “thesize of Belgium” that has been attributed to ISIS, but rather to a tatteredpatchwork of infrastructure and cities—which is also, perhaps, a fair way todescribe state control in parts of Iraq and certainly Syria.

There are different estimates about whetherthe group has gained or lost territory overall in the past year. The U.S.Defense Department has said that as of April, “ISIL can no longer operatefreely in roughly 25 to 30 percent of the populated areas of Iraqi territorywhere it once could. … ISIL’s area of influence in Syria remains largelyunchanged.” But the Pentagon’s inspector general is investigating claims thatsuch reports have been skewed to offer a better picture of the militarycampaign’s progress, and The Daily Beast has reported that the official accountleaves out important territorial gains ISIS has made. The intelligence companyJane’s estimated in July that ISIS had lost 9.4 percent of its territory in thefirst half of 2015; analysts at ISW use different baselines for how muchterritory ISIS had to begin with, and the institution doesn’t give percentageestimates of territory gained or lost. 

这并不意味着ISIS的领地有着人们所认为的“比利时大小”，而只是一块由基础设施和城市拼凑而成的破布。这或许也是一种形容在伊拉克部分地区以及叙利亚的国家控制的适当方法。对于ISIS在去年总共获得或失去了多少领地有多种不同的估计。美国国防部说，“截至四月ISIL已经无法像以前一样在伊拉克境内大致25%-30%的居住区自由行动了。其在叙利亚的影响区几乎没有改变。”但是五角大楼的监察长声称这样的报告歪曲了实施，夸大了军事行动的进展。《每日野兽》报告称官方统计遗漏了一些ISIS重要的领地扩大。情报公司简氏在7月估计，ISIS在2015年前半年失去了9.4%的领地；战争研究院的分析师们对ISIS的领地使用不同的基准，他们并没有给出领地得失的百分比估计。

It’s easier and perhaps more informative tofocus on the kind of territory ISIS has gained and lost over the past year. AsJohn Ford, a reserve captain in the U.S. Army’s Judge Advocate General Corps,wrote recently for War on the Rocks, all of this adds up to “four major areasof territorial change: ISIL losses near Baghdad, in the Kurdish areas of Iraq,and along the Turkish border with Syria, and ISIL gains in and around Palmyra.”Here’s the pattern he identified:

关注ISIS在去年得到或失去的领地类型是一种更简单，并且可能更有收获的方法。正如John Ford，一位陆军军法预备上尉近期为《War on the Rocks》写到的一样，所有这些导致了“四个主要的领土变动区：ISIL在巴格达附近、伊拉克库尔德人地区、土耳其与叙利亚交界处这三个地方失去了领地，在帕尔米拉附近获得了领地。”以下是他定义的模式：

 

ISIL has beenable to thrive in areas with a majority Arab Sunni population but has failed totake hold in areas where Sunni Arabs are the minority or where effective rivalground forces could oppose them.  … Takenin this light, ISIL appears to have essentially traded holdings in Kurdistanand near Baghdad that were hard for it to maintain for holdings in centralSyria that will be much easier for it to maintain.

ISIL在阿拉伯逊尼派人口占多数的地区得以发展，但在那些逊尼派是少数或敌方地面部队可以反抗他们的地方失败了。这样看来，似乎ISIL实际上是用其难以控制的库尔德地区与巴格达周边地区与其容易控制的中叙利亚地区做了交换。

This month, Martin Dempsey, the chairman ofthe Joint Chiefs of Staff, called the fight against ISIS “tacticallystalemated” with no “dramatic gains on either side,” predicting it would take“a decade or more to resolve” the problems that led to ISIS’s rise. This is thedifference a year made.

本月，Martin Dempsey，参谋长联席会议主席，称与ISIS的作战“战术上陷入了僵局”，并且没有“双方明显的收获”。他预测解决导致ISIS崛起的问题将需要“十年或更久去解决”。这就是一年时间造成的不同。

Damascusdean • a day ago
If we managed to achieve a stalemate at nocost in American combat losses, that is a good thing, and we ought to be happyabout it. ISIS will get dislodged if and when local ground forces decide to getserious and take them on. Its not up to us to defeat them. We can and shouldhelp, and containing them, which we appear to be doing, is a good start.
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如果我们的僵局是建立在没有美国士兵损失的基础上，那就是好事，我们应该为此感到高兴。如果当地地面部队决定严肃对待它们时，ISIS将被赶出去。击败他们不是我们的责任。我们可以也应该帮助（其他当地国家）去遏制它们。这正是我们正在做的，这是一个好的开始。

Esther Simpson • a day ago
Nice article but it avoids the obviousdynamic. ISIS is a regime under siege. If the forces of civilization can continueto contain it, defeat is inevitable.
Critical will be efforts to block infusionsof capital and outside military forces.
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不错的文章但它忽略了一些明显的因素。ISIS是一个被围攻的政权。如果文明的力量可以继续遏制它，它必将失败。
关键是阻止资本及外部军事力量的流入。

Frank • a day ago
Air raids do not significantly affect localculture despite however much people want it to. You can bomb northern Iraq allyou want but there is nothing you can do to make the Sunni tribes that welcomedISIS in, trust and accept the Iraqi government in Baghdad. You will need anoutside group to force both sides to cooperate. And no one in the world wantsto put up the men and money for that.
So expect ISIS to remain a force in thearea no matter what any republican or democrat tries to tell you about theirstrategy.
8  •Reply•Share ›

尽管很多人希望，空袭无法明显改变当地文化。你可以尽情轰炸北伊拉克，但你无法使那些欢迎ISIS进入的逊尼派部落信任、接受巴格达的伊拉克政府。你将需要一只外部力量强迫双方合作。但世界上没有人愿意为此投入人员和金钱。
因此我们最好预计ISIS仍将作为当地的一只力量，无论共和党或民主党怎样告诉你他们的战略。

Arcite to Frank • 21 hours ago
Nonsense, tribal loyalty is pragmatic. Ifcentral government can offer a more beneficial arrangement than IS, the tablescan turn very quickly. Of course, that is asking for a lot considering thevarious betrayals, corruption, and incompetence of the Iraqi Gov thus far.
3  •Reply•Share ›

（回复上条）毫无意义。部落忠诚是实用主义的。如果中央政府可以比ISIS提供更多优待，情况会很快改变。当然，考虑到伊拉克政府的各种背叛、腐败、以及无能，这是很高的要求。

Boredinmin • 21 hours ago
Looks like another decade plus of U.S.blood, treasure and obsession will be flowing into Iraq. I wonder if Bush hadeven a faint clue how long Iraq would haunt the U.S. when he was telling liesto push us into that hell hole?
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看起来似乎美国的鲜血、金钱与执着将在伊拉克继续流动10年。我怀疑当布什通过撒谎将我们推进深渊时，他是否知道伊拉克将会困扰美国多久。