川普，龙，弥诺陶洛斯（人身牛头怪物） [美国媒体]

-------------译者：兵靠将带-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------



THENS – If Donald Trump understands anything it is the value of bankruptcy and financial recycling. He knows all about success via strategic defaults followed by massive debt write-offs and the creation of assets from liabilities. But does he grasp the profound difference between a developer’s debt and the debt of a large economy? And does he understand that China’s private debt bubble is a powder keg under the global economy? Much hinges on whether he does.

雅典消息，如果川普明白破产和经济循环的价值，他就会明白战略性拖欠导致巨额冲销和资产负债重建所带来的后果。但是他弄没弄清楚拖欠发展中国家的债务和拖欠一个大型经济体债务的巨大差别？以及他明不明白中国民营债务泡沫对于当下的全球经济来说就是一个火药桶？这一切都取决于川普如何抉择。

Trump was elected on a wave of discontent with the establishment’s colossal mishandling of both the pre-2008 boom and the post-2008 recession. His promise of a domestic stimulus and protectionist trade policies to bring back manufacturing jobs carried him to the White House. Whether he can deliver depends on whether he understands the role America used to play in the “good old days” the role it can play now and crucially the significance of China.

川普是在人们对政府处理2008年前经济繁荣和2008年以后经济衰退的问题不当的接连不满中上台的。他能够入主白宫，是他承诺将刺激国内经济和实行贸易保护政策来增加制造业的岗位。川普能否继续下去取决于他是否明白美国在过去经济繁荣中的作用，是否明白美国现在的地位，以及当下中国的重要性。

 -------------译者：Wendypanying-审核者：珂求一生------------

Before 1971 US global hegemony was predicated upon America’s current-account surplus with the rest of the capitalist world which the US helped to stabilize by recycling part of its surplus to Europe and Japan. This underpinned economic stability and sharply declining inequality everywhere. But as America slipped into a deficit position that global system could no longer function giving rise to what I have called the Global Minotaur phase.

1971年以前，美国的全球霸权是建立在它和其他资本主义国家间收支经常项目顺差上的，当时美国通过将本国的一部分顺差返还给欧洲和日本，帮助稳定了这一霸权体系。这样使经济更加稳固，也使各地区的不平等急剧减少。但是，当美国滑入赤字阶段时，其全球霸权体系无法正常运转，导致了我称之为全球弥诺陶洛斯（牛头怪）时期。

According to ancient myth King Minos of Crete owed his hegemony to the Minotaur a tragic beast imprisoned under Minos’s palace. The Minotaur’s intense loneliness was comparable only to the fear it inspired far and wide because its voracious appetite could be satisfied – thereby guaranteeing Minos’s reign – only by human flesh. So a ship loaded with youngsters regularly sailed to Crete from faraway Athens to deliver its human tribute to the beast. The gruesome ritual was essential for preserving Pax Cretana and the King’s hegemony.

在古代神话中，克里特岛的弥诺斯国王借助弥诺陶洛斯（牛头怪）——一头被悲催地囚禁在弥诺斯王宫殿地底下的猛兽——确立了霸权。弥诺陶洛斯强烈的孤寂感只有它在远近城邦中引发的恐惧可以匹敌，因为它贪婪的胃口只能靠人肉来满足——这样一来也就确保了弥诺斯国王的统治。因此，一艘载满了年轻男女的船就定期从遥远的希腊驶向克里特岛，为这头猛兽献上人祭。这一令人毛骨悚然的仪式对于维护帕克斯克里特岛以及弥诺斯国王的霸权至关重要。

-------------译者：magicqueen99-审核者：食狮客------------

After 1971 US hegemony grew by an analogous process. The Minotaur was none other than the US trade deficit which devoured increasing quantities of the world’s net exports. America’s burgeoning deficit was financed by billions of dollars of daily net inflows into Wall Street from the foreign (and often US) owners of these distant factories – a form of modern tribute to the Global Minotaur.

1971以后，美国霸权以类似的方式获得扩张。这头弥诺陶洛斯就是美国赤字，美国赤字吞噬着世界越来越多的净出口量，美国赤字的繁荣主要来自华尔街的日进斗金，这些资金来自遥远工厂的外国（以及美国）工厂主----一种向全球性的弥诺陶洛斯献祭的现代形式。

The more the deficit grew the greater its appetite for Europe’s and Asia’s capital. What made the Minotaur truly global was its function: it helped recycle financial capital (profits savings and surplus money). It kept gleaming German factories busy. It gobbled up everything produced in Japan and later in China. But at the same time Wall Street learned how to turbocharge these capital inflows through exotic financial instruments. The floodgates of financialization burst open and the world was flooded with debt.

这些赤字越增加，它对欧洲和亚洲资本的胃口就越大。让弥诺陶洛斯真正全球化的是因为其功能：它有助于金融资本(利润结余和顺差)循环利用。它让德国闪闪发亮的工厂保持运转。它把日本（后来是中国）生产的所有东西都大口吞噬。但是与此同时，华尔街也掌握了怎样通过光怪陆离的金融机制让这些资本流入发挥更强大作用的方法。金融化的闸门突然洞开，全世界都淹没在债务的洪流里。

-------------译者：走地鸡炖蘑菇-审核者：yanzi1990------------

In the autumn of 2008 the Minotaur was mortally wounded after running into the wall of private debt that was a by-product of its appetite. While the Fed and the Treasury refloated US markets (at the expense of weaker Americans left behind since the 1970s) nothing would be the same: Wall Street’s capacity to continue “closing” the global recycling loop vanished. The US banking sector could no longer harness America’s twin trade and budget deficits for the purposes of financing enough domestic demand to sustain the rest of the world’s net exports. From that moment on the world economy would find it impossible to regain its poise.

早在2008年秋天，在私营债务这一贪婪的产物上碰壁了之后，牛头怪就受到了重创。然而美联储和财政部救市（从1970年开始，一直以牺牲美国的劳苦大众作为代价）一切都变了：华尔街曾经可以使全球的资本供应循环链持续闭锁，现在这一能力消失了。美国银行业再也无法利用美国的贸易和预算双赤字来筹措足够的国内需求以维持世界的净出口了。从那时起，世界经济就发现想要重回平衡，是不可能的。

Following the Minotaur’s mortal wounding America has not only the Fed and the Treasury to thank for helping to avoid a new Great Depression. The US was also saved by the Dragon: the Chinese government cranked up domestic investment to unprecedented levels to pick up the slack created by the contraction in spending in the US and Europe. For many years China allowed credit creation by its formal and shadow banks to run amok even permitting them to benefit from the Fed’s easy-money largesse by taking out dollar-denominated loans. Put succinctly the Dragon stepped in to rebalance the West when the Minotaur no longer could.

随着牛头怪的重创，不仅仅是美联储和财政部帮忙避免了新的大萧条的发生，美国同样也被中国龙救了：中国政府提高了国内的投资到了前所未有的水平，以提振由美国和欧洲消费缩减产生的疲软。几年来，中国一直允许由正规银行或者影子银行发放大量贷款，甚至是批准了他们通过挪用美联储的以美元计价的贷款来轻松赚钱。简而言之，当牛头怪不能使西方实现再平衡时，中国龙取而代之。

 -------------译者：莎布·尼古拉丝-审核者：莎布·尼古拉丝------------

China’s leaders knew what they were doing. They were creating a bubble of unsustainable investment to give Europe and the US a chance to get their act together. Alas both failed to do so: America because of the standoff between President Barack Obama and the Republican-controlled Congress and Europe for reasons too painful to recount. And when the perfect storm hit in 2015 with US interest rates climbing while commodity prices fell China had to crank up credit creation once more.

中国的领导人知道他们在干啥。他们创造了一个不可持续的投资泡沫，给美国还有欧洲带来了机遇。但是美欧都辜负了中国：美国是因为总统奥巴马和共和党控制的国会之间的僵局导致的，欧洲的原因则令人心痛让人难以回想。所以当2015年美国利率上升，大宗商品价格下降时，中国不得不再次加快信贷创造。

Yanis Varoufakis a former finance minister of Greece is Professor of Economics at the University of Athens.

Yanis Varoufakis：希腊的前财政部长，现为雅典大学经济学教授。

原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译：翻译加工厂 转载请注明出处]

-------------译者：莎布·尼古拉丝-审核者：莎布·尼古拉丝------------

ommented Jamel Saadaoui NOV 30 2016
Again 
Why China should rue an overvalued currency? It does not seem to be an equilibrium phenomenon then... 

再次。
为什么中国要运行一个定价过高的货币？ 它可不是一个好的平衡现象。然后...

Commented Jamel Saadaoui NOV 30 2016
Dear SIr 
I do not understand on what basis you argue that the Chinese renminbi is grossly overvalued. The current account surplus is still above 2% of GDP. 

尊敬的先生。
我不知道你是基于何种标准，让你产生了人民币被严重高估的错觉。
国际收支经常项目顺差依然在2%GDP以上

Comment Sarah Glass NOV 29 2016
Wow if only the leaders in this world understood half of this????

哇~要是世界领导人懂得其中的一半就好了？？？

Comment Armin Schmidt NOV 29 2016
I wish I understood all the correlations and processes mentioned. What I can add is that economics could soon well be a shrinking part of politics in which many 'scientific' economic correlations could pause or end. 
There is more in my account's biography. 

我希望我了解所有的关系与过程。
我可以补充的唯有：经济可能很快就会成为政治萎缩的一部分，许多“科学”的经济关系可能都会被暂停或是结束。
我账号的个人简介里还有很多。

-------------译者：老公-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Comment S.A R NOV 29 2016
本评论写于2016年11月29号
You are spot on as usual but I must say I don't much care for your metaphors. Any (other than symbolic) protectionist trade policies by America will completely blow up in their face much sooner than expected by the likes of Donald Trump.

好吧，你们说的总是对的，但是我并不太关心你们的这些比喻。川普等人所制定的任何的美国贸易保护主义政策（象征性的除外）都会比想象中更快的速度搞砸。

I'm almost certain that he doesn't understand the complexities of the situation. His economic advisors will however stop him from doing much in this regard. He'll probably try to strike some deal with China but it's unlikely it will come to much. READ LESS

我敢肯定特朗普并不清楚形势的复杂。不过在这方面，他的经济顾问会纠正他，不至于错太多。将来他可能会和中国达成一些协议，但不会太多。鄙人愚见。

 -------------译者：莎布·尼古拉丝-审核者：莎布·尼古拉丝------------

Comment Steve Hurst NOV 30 2016
@Jose - please refer to the definition of double think

@Jose-请你参考双重思想的定义。

Comment Jose araujo NOV 30 2016
@Steve yes I agree with you but still one of our goals should be to promote free efficient markets. 
But my comentary was more in the sense that I can't understand libertarians who defend fixed exchange rates and non-market mechanisms like Euro and others. IMHO its the negation of theire beliefs.

@Steve-是的，我同意你的看法，但我们的目标之一应该是促进自由高效的市场。
但是，我的评论意义更在于我无法理解自由主义者捍卫固定汇率和非市场机制如欧元等等。
恕我直言，这是在否定他们自身的信仰。

-------------译者：cccoom1993-审核者：cccoom1993------------

Comment Steve Hurst NOV 30 2016
@Jose 
You show me a free and efficient market and I will supply a pumpkin that turns into a carriage

你给我一个自由和有效的市场，我会回报给你一个能够变成马车的南瓜。（你给我充分的条件，我给你满意的成果）

Comment Steve Hurst NOV 30 2016
@ Other
Anyone can share my currency via the FX. If you are talking abut a common currency then you have to perpetually transfer wealth from rich regions to poorer regions or alternatively let regional depopulation occur or local debt accrue ref GR quo est demonstratum. Depopulation is a bad outcome because the
infrastructure maintenance bill is static so remorselessly increases per capita eventually leading to infrastructure collapse or debt swamps the local economy. Unless there is a feeling of kinship the rich regions tend to oppose perpetual wealth transfer eg Germany v GR. Nothing will stop these mechanisms so the EZ is a living death a zombi state. Warnings should be posted on the border roads entering this state advising of the truly terrible resident evil present. 

任何人都可以通过FX来分享我的货币。如果讨论一种能在国家之间共通的货币（比如欧元），（要解决**问题）就不得不永久性地将财富从更富饶的地区转移到较贫困的地区，或者是选择让该区域人口减少或者是增加这个贫困地方的债务。人口减少之所以不是一个好的选择是因为基础设施的维护费用是固定的，人口的下降最终会增加人均所要负担的成本，而这最终会导致基础设施崩溃或地方经济陷入债务泥潭。除非这两个地区之间有亲近感，例如德国的东德和西德，否则富裕地区是不会赞成对于贫困地区的永久性财富转移的。因为没有什么会让这些不良机制停止作用，所以EZ（European zones， 欧洲地区）是处于一个类似活死人的僵尸状态。在进入这个区域的边境道路的两旁应该被张贴上警告标示，告诉人们这里真实存在的居民的糟糕状况和邪恶。

BTW how can you have different interest rates for a common currency. This basically says a euro has a different value depending which side of the road you are on a complete and utter nonsense. This is why Schaube's brain nearly exploded when it was proposed to him it couldn't cope with the idiocy of the conundrum 

你怎么能设定同一种货币会产生不同的利率？这基本上是在说，只要欧元在不同的地方就会有不一样的价值，这根本是彻头彻尾的无稽之谈。 这就是为什么这个问题被提给Schaub后他的大脑会几近爆炸，因为他的脑子并不能应付这个愚蠢的难题。

 -------------译者：cccoom1993-审核者：apq64c------------

Comment M M NOV 29 2016
Jose you never ceases to amaze me! You managed to identify "The Other"!

Jose你从来没有停止过给我惊喜！你居然在尝试分辨出“其他人”！

Comment Jose araujo NOV 29 2016
@ The Other first thankx for the challenge
I presume you like me are a believer in free efficient markets so why do you refuse a free currency market and prefer a fixed exchange system? There have always been currency markets so the liquidity from sharing a currency is a non issue to me.
Fixed exchange rates gold standards constitutional debt limits are all instruments that protect established wealth and penalize income. The rentier problem that has always been a problem for free market advocates.

我觉得你和我一样是充分自由市场信念的坚信者，所以为什么你会拒绝一个自由的货币市场转而选择一个受拘束的的结算系统呢？因为货币市场一直都存在，所以和货币配给相关联的流动性问题我感觉是毫无意义的。

We should promote the generation of income and the accumulation of wealth. They are related but not the same thing.
It’s truly hard for me to believe that the countries in Europe would be that far off if it wasn’t for the Euro. The historic growth rates from 2000 are really sub-par when compared with other times so if there are such big benefits from a shared currency where are they?

我们应该鼓励产生更多的收入和积累更多的财富。这两件事是相关的，但并不是一样的。我真的很难去相信，原来只要没有欧元，欧洲国家之间的联系是那么疏远。 与之前的其他时期相比，从2000年算起的经济历史增长率的表现非常糟糕，所以如果欧洲国家用共同的货币能获得所谓巨大的好处，那这些好处在哪里？

-------------译者：莎布·尼古拉丝-审核者：南山有樛木------------

Comment efi axarli NOV 29 2016
Economy must be not only scientific Knowledge but first of all philosophy accessible to every citizen. That is the simple truth revealed by Mr Yanis Varoufakis in every word he says. And I still feel proud to be Greek !

经济不仅必须是科学知识，而且首先还必须是所有公民都能获得的哲学。
这是在Yanis Varoufakis先生所说的每一个字中都可以体会到的简单真理。
我为我仍然是一名希腊人感到自豪！

Comment Jose araujo NOV 29 2016
Yanis Trumps election doesn't change the fact that we are living in liquidity trap conditions and a generalized preference for liquidity. So treasury yelds won't move before this change.
Actually your analogy is not right first because trade deficits are a consequence of transactions. It’s not debt that creates the trade but trade that creates debt second because in your analogy the financial crisis didn’t wounded the..

特朗普的选举并不能改变我们生活在流动性陷阱的环境中以及流动资产受到青睐的事实。
因此，在变化以前，国库的收益也不会改变。
况且事实上，你的比喻也是不正确的，因为贸易赤字是交易的结果。
是贸易创造了债务，而不是债务创造了贸易，因为在你的比喻中，金融危机没有伤害...（？）

-------------译者：fdv-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Comment Steve Hurst NOV 30 2016
@M M 
I was told by an american that the use for turkeys was not thanksgiving but election to public office. Perhaps vegetables deserve an opportunity. BTW Mike the headless chicken was put forward as a candidate at one time

有个美国人告诉我火鸡不仅仅是是在感恩节上吃的食物，而且还能竞选公职。也许是蔬菜是应该得到一个机会。顺便说下，曾经一只叫做mike的无头鸡被推举出来当候选人。

Comment M M NOV 29 2016
Steve one better sticks to vegetables you see what happened to the ￡5 note?

是啊，最好是坚持素食，你知道5英镑纸币发生了什么事吗？

Comment Steve Hurst NOV 29 2016
No roast beef then

没有烤牛排，没趣。。。

Comment M M NOV 29 2016
Jose in a nutshell you are correct there are also numerous other reasons and causes to the current stagnation which are too numerous to list in here.the Minotaur may appear healthy but is being eaten up by various illnesses.

简而言之，Jose是对的。另外造成目前这种停止状态还有很多原因，因为太多，这里就不一一列举了。弥诺陶洛斯看起来也许很健康，但是它正在将被各种疑难杂症蚕食。