外媒：中国的14个邻国中，哪个最容易被PLA入侵 [美国媒体]

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Why and need to tell me the list. Also which country could easier to invaded China with.

为什么，你得告诉我这个名单。也请告诉我那些国家更容易入侵中国。


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Tom Wilhelm studied at Wesleyan University CT
Written 13h ago
As purely an exercise in guessing at the challenges of projection of military power here’s my list grouped by level of difficulty hardest to easiest. I’m not including Hong Kong or Macau as they are already in the possession of China.

作为纯粹的猜想练习，根据武力投送面临的挑战，我按照从难到易的顺序列了个单子。我没有把香港或者澳门算进去，因为这些地方已经在中国手里了。

Category 1: Not a fight you want to pick

第一类：你不想挑战的对手

Russia
India
Pakistan
These should all be fairly obvious to all. They have a large modern military and nuclear weapons. China invading any of these is a non-starter.

俄罗斯
印度
巴基斯坦
原因对每个人来说都非常明显。这些国家拥有庞大的现代军队和核武器。中国入侵其中任何一个国家都会无功而返。

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Category 1a: Don’t poke the Bear

第1a类：别去捅那只熊

Kazakhstan
Mongolia
Unlike India and Pakistan these aren’t particularly dangerous adversaries. But their next door neighbor is. An invasion of either would certainly be seen as an aggressive act against one of the two countries on earth that actually could beat China in a conventional war. And a belligerent one at that. Not wise.

哈萨克斯坦
蒙古
不像印度或者巴基斯坦，这两个国家不算特别危险的敌人。但是它们的邻居不好惹。入侵任何一个都会被视为对其邻居的挑衅，它们实际上可以在常规战争中击败中国。而且它还很好战。不算明智。

Category 1b: Don’t poke the… Elephant?

第1b类：别去捅那只……象？

Bhutan
Nepal
Bhutan relies almost entirely on India for its defense. Invading Bhutan would be pretty much a declaration of war on India itself.

不丹
尼泊尔
不丹几乎完全依赖印度的军事保护。入侵不丹就等于对印度宣战。

Edit: Turns out Nepal isn’t much different with respect to its ties to India.

编辑：就与印度关系来说尼泊尔也不会有什么不同。

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Category 2: Sure you could… but WHY?

第二类：你当然可以入侵它们……但是为什么呢？

Afghanistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
I think China is smart enough not to follow the Russian and US example with respect to Afghanistan. Sure you could win a stand-up fight with any of these guys pretty trivially. And now you get to spend a decade or more taking painful losses to insurgents who disappear into the mountains. Oh and none of these nations is anywhere close to your population and supply centers. Have fun!

阿富汗
吉尔吉斯斯坦
塔吉克斯坦
我认为中国非常聪明，没有在阿富汗步俄罗斯和美国的后尘。你当然可以把这些微不足道的小国光明正大地击败。然后你就得花费十年或者更多的时间，承受惨痛的损失，在山沟里追捕反抗者。哦对了这几个国家距离你的主要人口区和供应中心都很远。祝你玩得开心！

Category 3: Routine but bloody

第三类：正常发挥，但会很血腥

Vietnam
Taiwan
North Korea
Myanmar
These 4 all have a pretty decent military. But they’re very much inside China’s sphere of influence and the logistics of an invasion would be much easier. China could invade any of these nations successfully in less than a month. Each has a big downside though. Vietnam and Myanmar would be an insurgency nightmare nearly on par with the Category 2 countries. Taiwan has the US wildcard. The only country China wants to fight with less than Russia is the US. North Korea would be a humanitarian shit-show. I guess if the Chinese leadership doesn’t care about millions of starving and dead civilians within a year then so be it. But North Korea exists solely because it’s a valuable buffer so they’d never bother to invade anyway.

越南
台湾
北朝鲜
缅甸
这四个国家有不错的军队。但是它们恰好处在中国势力范围之内，后勤可以很轻松地支持一场入侵。中国可以用不到一个月的时间成功占领这些国家。但是每个战场都会有负面。越南和缅甸的反抗军不亚于第二类国家，它们会成为中国的噩梦。台湾有美国撑腰。相比起俄罗斯，中国更不想挑战美国。北朝鲜会是个人道主义灾难样板。我猜如果中国领导人不在乎一年内上百万饥民和死去的人民的话那也没什么。不过北朝鲜的存在只是因为它是个有价值的缓冲区，所以中国人不会多此一举侵略它。

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Category 4: Got a long weekend to spare?

第四类：周末太长没事干？

Laos
Our winner Laos is just screwed. Their army wouldn’t be so much as a speedbump for the PLA. With an annual defense budget of $18.5 million they have the 122nd ranked military in the world out of 126 (source: Laos Military Strength). They are landlocked. They are underfunded and equipped with a handful of ancient Soviet tanks and artillery. They can barely keep their internal opposition groups under control.

老挝
我们的冠军老挝已经糟糕透顶。他们的军队对解放军的阻拦能力不会超过一条减速带。每年军费1850万美元，他们的军力在全世界126个国家里排名第122位（来源：老挝军事力量）。他们是内陆国家。他们没有钱，只装备了少量老苏联的坦克和火炮。他们勉强能压制国内的反对力量。

I guess the jungle might slow things down a bit but really… in an area of the world where there aren’t very many pushovers (or at least pushovers without powerful friends) Laos is the odd man out. I’d give them a week tops.

我猜丛林或许能减缓解放军的攻势一点点但是……在一个没有多少弱鸡的地区（或者没有强悍朋友的弱鸡），老挝就是个孤家寡人。我最多给他们一个星期时间。



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Pankaj Vaishnavi 2 upvotes
An invasion of Nepal (if that is even possible across the Himalayas) is an invasion of India. The Army Chiefs of India and Nepal are honorary generals in each other’s armies and the two countries have open borders.

入侵尼泊尔（如果这样甚至有可能翻过喜马拉雅山脉）就是入侵印度。印度和尼泊尔陆军最高长官相互是对方军队的荣誉将领，两国之间有开放边界。

So any invasion of Nepal will be immediately welcomed by Indian Himalayan Strike Corps with a garland of these beauties.

所以任何入侵尼泊尔的行动将受到带着这些漂亮花环的印度喜马拉雅突击队的接待。

Tom Wilhelm
Ah. I didn't know that. So Nepal would fall into the same category as Bhutan. Thanks for the info!

呃。我不知道。所以尼泊尔将变成和不丹一样的情况。谢谢你的信息！

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Pankaj Vaishnavi
Indeed. I would say that is true of to a limited extent Myanmar Thailand and Vietnam too.

的确.我想说的是，在一定程度上，缅甸、泰国和越南也是如此。

I wouldn’t be surprised if Indian Army’s Eastern Ladakh/Assam/Gorkha regiments start maintaining an active presence in these countries in the near future. Indian Government is forging deep defence relations with all the South-East Asian countries with some guarantees of active military help should a situation arise.

如果印度军方的东拉达克/阿萨姆邦/廓尔噶军团在不久的将来开始维持这些国家的积极关系，我不会感到惊讶的。印度政府正在与所有东南亚国家建立深厚的国防关系，这样一来如果出现情况，就有一些积极的军事援助保证。

Expect more Sino-Indian sabre rattling in the coming years.

预计未来几年中印之间会有更多剑拔弩张的局势。