[ 美国 外交官 ] 展望中国未来网络战 [美国媒体]

China’s Vision of the Future NetworkedBattlefield

展望中国未来网络战



Cyber, space and electronic warfare challengesto the US in the Western Pacific

网络空间电子战对西太平洋美国的挑战

By James Johnson April 26, 2017

Compared to the extensive coverage onChina’s traditional war-fighting capabilities (e.g. its ‘carrier killer’anti-ship missiles) far less ink has been spilled on Chinese thinking on the critical systems and nodes (or C4ISR in military lexicon), which enable andenhance these advanced weapons. These systems expand the range, accuracy, andlethality of Beijing’s military power projection.

由于中国陆续装备并强化先进武器，比起拥有可控制广阔疆域的传统战力（比如：航母杀手，反舰导弹等等），中国反而对一些关键系统以及关键节点（也可以说是C4ISR自动化指挥系统）很少提及。而北京这套系统对军力投射范围、准确性以及杀伤力却有着极大地提高。

This war-fighting toolkit includes: long-range precisionstrike missiles for use in early and preemptive strikes; stealth jet fightersto bypass enemy air defenses, and destroy its command and control centers;anti-satellite missiles to take out critical space-based intelligence, surveillance andreconnaissance (ISR) systems; and other emerging technologiessuch as rail-guns, ‘stealth-defeating’quantum radars, and autonomous systems.

这套作战系统包括：发现既通过远程精密导弹进行先发制人打击；通过隐形战机绕过敌人防空，摧毁其指挥控制中心；利用反卫星导弹捣毁用以监视侦查的天基情报系统；还有其他诸如轨道炮，反隐身量子雷达，自主（注：例如AI）系统等新式手段。

A more integrated Chinese warfighting forcecould fundamentally alter the regional military balance, which is alreadyrapidly moving in Beijing’s favor. According to the authors of a Chinesemilitary magazine, China must prepare to fight to safeguard and secureits “central leadership” in the South China Sea.

一个较为完备的作战体系将从根本上改变地区军事平衡，而此观念很快得到北京的认可。据中国军事刊物作者的观点，中国必须在“中央领导”下以斗争准备来维护南海安全。

To be sure, a fully networked fightingforce would prove highly effective during a future amphibious assault in the Senkakus,an island blockade against Taiwan, or a blockade on critical trading sea-lanesin the South China Seas — which China’s neighbors wouldunlikely be unable to resist.

  可以肯定的是，一个完善的作战网络对钓鱼岛两栖作战、登陆，封锁台湾。或是封锁中国南海中的关键贸易航道，将会证明是非常有效的，而中国的邻居们唯有无能为力。

In 2015 as part of broader military reforms, the Strategic Support Force was createdto form an “information umbrella”for future integrated joint force operations inthe space, cyber, and electronic warfare on the future ‘informatized’battlefield. A Chinese state-sponsored newspaper, recently claimed China wouldvery soon be able to conduct operations as complex as the 2011 U.S. raid onOsama Bin Laden. However, it remains to be seen whether the PLA is able toovercome its deep-seated inter-service rivalry, endemic bureaucratic stove-pipingand a lack of combat experience with modern military hardware.

2015年，作为大规模军改的一部分，这股战略支撑力量可在未来的信息化战场当中，为联合作战空间、网络以及电子战打造了个“信息伞”。中国国有报纸最近声称，中国很快将会像美国在2011年打击本拉登类似那样的复杂行动。然而，解放军能否克服军种间深度配合，与当地官方交流通畅，较少的作战经验，以及现代军事硬件，还有待观察。

The World’s First “Quantum Power”?

世界首个“量子大国”？

Last year, China launched the world’s firstquantum satellite (aka Micius) demonstrating Chinese rapid advancesin quantum information science. Beijing is clear-eyed about the potential strategic implications quantum technologies will holdfor future warfare. Some Chinese analysts have even compared the strategicimpact of quantum power withnuclearweapons.

去年，中国发射了世界上首个量子卫星（aka Micius；注：墨子号），卫星的发射展示了该国量子信息科学的快速进展。北京很清楚量子技术在未来战争所带来的战略潜力。一些中国分析家甚至把量子力量同核武战略影响相提并论。

Worryingly for the Pentagon, Chinesestrategists appear confident that quantum communications capabilities arealready deployable for “local wars” in China’s “near-seas.” If China is able toleapfrog the United States to become the world’s first “quantum power” it willpose a serious challenge to U.S. military-technological superiority —especially to U.S. military stealth and intelligence gatheringcapabilities.

令五角大楼非常担忧的是，中国战略家似乎相信，量子通讯已可应用于中国“近海”的“局部战争”。如果中国能够超越美国成而为世界第一的“量子大国”，特别是对技术和情报收集能力处于优势的美军，会带来严峻挑战。

Underlying the gravity of this challenge, aWhite House official recently warned that the U.S.information-centric ways of war are increasingly “under siege” fromChinese quantum technology — analogous to China’s own “offset strategy.”China has reportedly already developed a range of disruptive quantumtechnologies with military applications, such as: “unhackable” quantumcryptography; sophisticated tools to decrypt military communications; and nextgeneration stealth quantum radars.

由于存在这种潜在威胁，白宫官方最近警告说，美国所依赖的信息战正承受着中国量子技术所带来的巨大压力，类似使中国有着自己的“抵消战略”。中国已把具有颠覆性的量子技术应用于军事，例如利用“牢不可破”的量子密码，来增加通信解密的复杂度，开发下一代探测隐形的量子雷达。

Despite these challenges, the Pentagon hasyet to commit meaningful resources to the development of quantum technologies.Apparently, the policy wonks have concluded that these systems wouldnot significantly enhance military communication security. Instead of taking onthis challenge head-on the evidence suggests U.S. funding into criticalmilitary technologies (i.e. cyber, space, and quantum) has actually decreasedover the past five years.

尽管存在这样的挑战，五角大楼还是没有为量子技术的发展投入有意义的资源。显然，有些政策分析人士认为这些系统无法显着提高军事通讯的安全性。美国没有正面面对这一挑战，有证据表明美国在军事关键技术上的投入（例如网络、空间和量子），实际上在过去5年里反而有所下降。

Even with limited military use, Chinesequantum technologies could radically and irreversibly shift the future militarybalance in Asia. This paradigm shift could harbinger a far greater asymmetricchallenge to the United States compared with China’s other so-called “Assassinmace” weapons e.g. anti-ship and anti-satellite missiles.

即使在有限的军事用途下，中国的量子技术也可以从根本上、不可逆地改变亚洲未来的军事平衡。与中国其他所谓的“刺客”武器相比，如反舰导弹和反卫星导弹，这种模式的转变可能预示着美国将面临更大的不对称挑战。

“New” Preemptive Strike and CoerciveOptions for China

“新式”先发制人，中国必选项

Washington’s main fear is this: once thevarious technical and organizational shortcomings have been overcome, a fullynetworked war-fighting force will offer Beijing new options inthe use offensive weapons for future preemptive and coercive missions in Asia.Specifically, to hold U.S. carrier strike groups and bases in the WesternPacific at risk through lethal cross-domain operations.

华盛顿的主要担心是：（北京）在各种技术和结构上的缺点一旦被克服，一个完全联网的战斗部队，可在未来可提供先发制人和强制性行动，北京在亚洲在使用进攻性武器时有了项新选择。具体来说，（北京）可通过跨域打击行动，使在西太平洋地区中的美国航母打击群和基地处于危险之中。

Equally worryingly, the possession of thesecapabilities may embolden Chinese leaders to behave more assertively and aggressivelyto defend and expand their unresolved (and widely disputed) sovereignty claims— especially in the South China Sea.

同样令人担忧的是，拥有这些能力后可使中国领导人表现得更加果断，助长积极捍卫和扩大解决（和争议）主权的主张，尤其是在南海。

As if further proof was needed, a ChineseMinistry of Defense in response to reports that the Trump administration iscrafting a new arms package for Taiwan asserted it would be “futile” and “doomed” for Taiwan to consider usingmilitary force to prevent unification with Mainland China. These commentsclearly signaled to Washington a renewed sense of confidence and resolve;consummate with an increasingly credible warfighting force.

有一佐证，中国国防部曾回应说，对于特朗普政府制定一项新的台湾军售计划，让台湾考虑使用武力阻止与中国大陆统一，宣称这将是“徒劳的”和“注定失败的”。这些言论已然明确向华盛顿表明新的信心和决心；同时也表明已有愈来愈完善的可信的战斗力。

A destabilizing andhighly escalatory dynamic is rapidly unfolding in Asia: China and theU.S. are both accumulating increasingly advanced military systems to enable andenhance their respective war-fighting tools, designed to deny the other side the upper hand in the useof these capabilities. During future conflict or crisis, this obsession willincentivize both sides to strike first, to deprive the other the chance ofjeopardizing vulnerable battlefield “eyes,ears, brain and nervous systems.”  

一种极不稳定且有递增的态势在亚洲迅速弥漫开来：中美都积累了越来越先进的军事系统，加强各自的战争工具，其目的都是想防止对方在使用这些能力时占有上风。未来的冲突或危机期间，这种“自信”会助长双方先有先发制人的想法，而去摘取对方的眼睛、耳朵，大脑和神经系统，抢占战场优势。

Unless Washington and Beijing can deviseways to mollify these destabilizing dynamics i.e. reduce the incentives tostrike first, the policy implications for U.S.-China relations and futureAsian stability will be huge. These deteriorating action-reaction dynamicswill lead to downward spirals of uncertainty, insecurity, and instability. Actionsand rhetoric taken for defensive purposes will be viewed as aggressive; leadingto arms-racing and ultimately conflict.

除非华盛顿和北京能平息这种不稳定，即减少先发制人的思想趋势，这将为美中关系以及未来亚洲的稳定带来巨大的影响。一些敏感动作会导致形势恶化且向下螺旋，从而导致不确定，不安全和不稳定性。以防御为目的而采取的行动和托词可视为侵略，将会引起军备竞赛，最终导致冲突。

Dr. James Johnson completed his Mastersin Asia Pacific Studies in 2011, and successfully defended his PhD thesis atthe University of Leicester in 2016.  James has published research andpresented conference papers in the following areas: Security Studies;U.S.-China Relations; Nuclear Strategy; Chinese Military Doctrine; and EastAsian Security and has worked in the financial sector for 20 years.

作者：詹姆斯·约翰逊，博士，中美问题专家