中国想要韩国放弃萨德系统的真正原因 [美国媒体]

The Real Reason China Wants South Korea to Ditch THAAD

中国想要韩国放弃萨德系统的真正原因

Robert E Kelly
June 13, 2017

Robert E Kelly
2017年6月13日
 


This month, the new president of South Korea, Moon Jae-in, declared that American missile defense in South Korea must wait out yet another round of delays. The United States military has sought for years to install a high-altitude missile defense system in South Korea. The South Korean government dragged its feet for fear of provoking China, which has objected. Yet years of outreach by United States and South Korean officials—on the Track 1, 1.5 and 2 levels—went unheeded. No matter the solicitation, China turned it down. Eventually, the government of now-impeached ex-President Park Geun-hye chose to accept the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in mid-2016. The system is now partially installed.

本月，韩国新任总统文在寅宣称，必须进一步延迟美国在韩国部署导弹防御系统。 美国军方多年来一直想在韩国部署萨德防空系统。 由于韩国政府担心引发中国不快而始终踟蹰不前。 然而，虽有美国和南韩官员的经年推动，但1,1.1及2阶段始终未能展开。 无论怎样的方案，中国都始终反对。 最终，现任已被弹劾的前总统朴槿惠政府决定在2016年中旬接受部署萨德防空（THAAD）系统， 现该系统已部分安装。

China and THAAD

中国与萨德防空系统

The Chinese response was to slap an informal economic embargo on South Korea. As South Korea’s largest export destination, this hurt local producers,leading to pushback. Politicians on the left also argued that THAAD was unnecessary. They said it was overkill for North Korea’s limited missile program and that it did not block the likely vector North Korea would use to strike South Korea. North Koreans, as a fellow Korean people, would never use nuclear weapons against South Korea.

对此，中国的反应是对南韩实行非正式的经济制裁。 作为韩国最大的出口目的地，这对韩国当地的生产商造成了损害，也对部署造成了阻碍。 左派政治家也认为萨德系统是不必要的。 他们认为这是对朝鲜性能有限的导弹的过度反应，而且该系统也不能用于拦截朝鲜攻击韩国的导弹。 况且朝鲜人作为韩国人的同胞，不会对韩国使用核武器。

Hence when liberal Moon took the presidency, there was considerable impetus to halt or slow the deployment. And this summer Moon has thrown up two roadblocks to deployment—legislative approval and an environmental assessment. The response has been widespread skepticism of these objections. As in most democracies, the commander-in-chief has wide latitude to make national-defense decisions at his/her discretion. President Park did not obtain National Assembly approval for THAAD last year. Nor is there obvious precedent demanding that. Even more implausible is the environmental objection. Presumably American operators and builders of this system would have long since been exposed to dangerous levels of whatever toxins the president fears.

因此，当自由派的文在寅就任总统后，他很大的动力停止或延缓部署。 而就本夏季，文在寅已经扔出了两个阻碍：部署导弹的立法审批程序及环境评估。 这种反应是令人费解的。 按照大多数民主国家惯例，总参谋长拥有广泛的自由裁量权。 总统府去年没有获得国会审批。 这种审批本身也没有明显的先例要求。 而环境上的反对则更是无稽之谈。 据推测，如果按照韩国总统对于有毒环境标准的要求，美方操作方及建造方早已暴露在这种有毒环境多年。

These objections are so transparent that much of the conservative media has identified them as what they almost certainly are—delaying tactics as a sop to China. They buy Moon time to find a technicality to roll THAAD out if indeed he wants to push that far. That still seems unlikely. Moon only won with 41 percent of the vote and would facing punishing criticism in the media for knuckling under to China if he expelled THAAD. But Moon’s awkward dilemma between China and the United States on this issue captures what is likely the biggest challenge for South Korean grand strategy in the future—avoiding an open, zero-sum choice between the United States and China.

这些反对意见是如此的透明，以至于许多保守的媒体都认为这些办法其实是拖延中国的手段。 如果文在寅真的想这么干的话，中方会给文在寅争取时间，以便找到一个技术性方案来让萨德系统出局。但这似乎也不大可能， 文在寅只赢得了百分之四十一的选票，如果他驱逐了萨德系统，媒体则会批评其绥靖中国。 在这个问题上，文在寅陷入了夹在中国与美国两国之间的尴尬困境，这可能是韩国未来战略层面上面临的最大挑战，即：如何避免在中美两国间进行公开、零合的选边。

What THAAD Does and Does Not Do

萨德系统能做及不能做的

THAAD captures this problem well, because China’s objections are almost certainly not technical. THAAD does not impinge on China’s strategic deterrent against the United States. Its anti-missile rockets do not have the range for that. THAAD also does not give America any new intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities to observe China. The United States already has excellent satellite coverage of China and would rapidly detect a Chinese missile launch. THAAD’s X-band radar, about which so much fuss has been made, does not point into China. Unlike an I-band radar (the sort one sees at airports or in the movies), the X-band does not rotate 360 degrees, generating imagery of China. Rather it projects northward, as its intended target is North Korea.

萨德确实引起了这个问题，因为中国的反对意见几乎肯定不是技术性的。萨德不会影响中国对美国的战略威慑，因为萨德的反导火箭射程还达不到。萨德也不能增加美国任何新的对中国的情报监视及侦查能力。 美国已经很好地实现了对中国的全卫星覆盖，可以迅速发现中国导弹的发射。萨德的X波段雷达，也并没有指向中国。 与I波段雷达（机场或电影中看到的雷达）不同，X波段不能360度旋转来产生中国地区的雷达图像。 相反，它固定向北投射是因为其目标为朝鲜。

Chinese (and Russian) objections that it might then penetrate into northeastern China (or the Russian far east) are also specious. The curvature of the earth means that the X-band signal begins to peel away from the earth after several hundred miles, so coverage north of North Korea is limited too. As its name implies, THAAD is a defensive system. It is designed to shoot down incoming missiles as they approach a target. Unless China, or Russia, intend to strike South Korea or Japanese cities, there is no threat to them. Repeating all this, however, is almost besides the point now. The Chinese (and the Russians) know this. Beijing had ample years before the Park deployment decision last summer to raise technical concerns. It forewent all such opportunities. This strongly suggests a political motive, which Moon’s transparently phony excuses to drag out deployment only further verify.

中国（和俄罗斯）的反对意见是这个雷达有可能探测到中国东北部（或俄罗斯远东地区）。 地球曲率意味着X波段信号在几百英里之后开始离开地球表面，所以在朝鲜北部的覆盖也是受到限制的。 顾名思义，萨德（中高空导弹防御系统）是一个防御体系。 它被设计为击落来袭导弹。除非中国或俄罗斯打算打击韩国或日本城市，否则这个系统不会对他们构成任何威胁。 然而，无论怎么向他们重复解释这点，亦毫无用处，因为中方及俄方其实早就知道了。北京在韩国总统府决定部署的几年前就有机会提出这些技术问题，这强烈地表明了中国的这些关切是政治性的，文在寅虚伪的借口进一步证实其只是想拖延部署。

Decision Forks

决策分歧

So once again, THAAD is victim to South Korea’s tough position between the United States and China. As China rises, it exerts pressure on its neighboring states, as most large, expanding states do in their locality. Beijing can mask such pressure in bogus technical language—suggesting that THAAD peers into China, or that South Korean imports suddenly require new health and safety inspection—but these are obvious fakeries. And indeed, Beijing may want them to be flimsy enough so that South Korean elites can actually see the steel in the glove.

所以再一次的，萨德成为了韩国夹在美国与中国之间艰难立场的受害者。 随着中国的兴起，作为本地区最大的扩张性大国，它对周边国家施加巨大压力。 北京可以用虚伪的技术语言来掩饰这种压力，表明萨德是针对中国，或者韩国的进口突然需要进行健康和安全检查等，但这明显是虚伪的手段。 事实上，北京可能希望这些手段看起来足够虚伪，以便能让韩国精英看到中国棉里藏着的那根针。

Beijing’s real objection, of course, is the deepening of the South Korea–U.S. alliance, which THAAD represents. THAAD is technically confusing enough that muddying the waters on it masks an open Chinese power-play, but to those who understand THAAD, Beijing’s objections are shallow enough for the real message to come through: that South Korea should not further its military relationship with the United States.

当然，北京真正反对萨德系统是因为其意味着韩美联盟关系的深化。 在萨德系统上提出可疑的技术问题，是为了把水搅浑以便掩饰中国正在玩弄霸权把戏。不过对于那些了解萨德的人来说，北京的反对足以传递其真实的信息：韩国不应该进一步扩大与美国的军事关系。

This sort of decision point, or fork, is almost certain to recur with greater frequency for South Korea. China is growing relative to the United States. As the gap between them diminishes, pressure will rise on China’s neighbors. South Korea’s ability to walk between the raindrops—to find political spaces congenial to both the United States and China—will invariably contract. THAAD and the Moon government’s decision to once again get on the deploy-or-not merry-go-round is only the beginning. Tussles like this will become a defining feature of South Korean foreign policy.

类似这样分歧，几乎肯定会再次并越来越频繁地在韩国出现。 相对于美国，中国的实力正不断增长。 随着差距的缩小，中国邻国的压力也会不断加大。 韩国这种在美中之间寻求可接受的政治空间的雨中漫步而不湿衣的高难度游戏，将会一直持续。 文在寅政府最终决定实施部署萨德或不部署萨德只是一个开始，类似的角力会成为韩国将来外交政策的特征。


Joseph Siew • 9 days ago
In order for China and Russia to accept Thaad in South Korea, the only solution is to involve them in the deployment of Thaad. Could the US consider this?

要让中国和俄罗斯接受韩国部署萨德系统，唯一的办法就是让他们参与进部署中？美国能做到么？

Ronnery Amon • 9 days ago
Considering that the majority of the SKorean people support the installation, I don't think Moonbeam has a choice. Two things are guaranteed. There will be more missile tests by fat boy Kim. There is no doubt about that. Second is the full installation of THAAD that follows.

考虑到大部分韩国民众支持部署萨德系统，我不认为文在寅还有选择。有两件事是肯定会发生的：1、鑫月半肯定会发射更多导弹，这是毫无疑问的。2、与之相对，萨德会顺利地部署下去。