如果印度停止与中国的贸易，它将如何影响中国和印度经济？ [美国媒体]

If India stops trading with China, how will it effect the Chinese and Indian economies?

如果印度停止与中国的贸易，它将如何影响中国和印度经济？
  



Kingshuk Bandyopadhyay, MSc Economics
Very little. India buys just 2.2% of Chinese exports.

很少。印度买的东西只占中国出口的2.2%

For Indian consumers, it will be quite hard to find alternate sources of these goods. Chinese firms are the dominant producers of a lot of goods that India buys from them, like computers, phones, integrated circuits, factory machines, networking equipment etc.Some of these are not even manufactured anywhere else anymore (at that scale), so the options will be some combination of - (a) pay higher price, (b) buy inferior products , (c) stop using them altogether.

对印度的消费者来说，将很难找到这些商品的替代来源。印度买的中国商品中，很多都占有主导地位，如电脑，手机，智能 集成电路，工厂的机器、网络设备等，有些甚至在其他任何地方都不生产（以那样的规模），所以我们可以有这样的几组选择（a）支付更高的价格，（b）购买劣质产品，（c）停止使用它们。

Presumably there will be reciprocation from China too? (you can’t have it both ways!)

或者我们会和中国两败俱伤？（你做不到两者兼得！）

If Chinese consumers boycott Indian products, India will lose 4.8% of its exports.[3]Proportionally, it will hurt the Indian economy bit more than it will hurt Chinese economy. Moreover, Indian exports to China are mainly commodities like cotton, copper, iron ore, granite, petroleum etc.[4] It is easier to find alternate sources of these.

如果中国消费者抵制印度产品，印度将失去它出口的4.8%，这会损害印度经济，而且受到的伤害比中国经济更严重。此外，印度出口到中国的主要大宗商品如棉花、铜、铁矿石、花岗岩、石油等很容易就能找到替代品。

India will lose more than China economically. Politically of course it is terrible optics and childish, à la Donald Trump.

印度将比中国经济失去的更多。从政治上讲。这件事天真幼稚的可怕，就像唐纳德·特朗普一样。

Thankfully none of the above will happen. This sort of nationalism is popular on the internet, not in real life. In real life, people will still need their smart phones and computers to post nationalistic slogans on Facebook. And without those cheap Huawei routers fewer people will be online.

值得庆幸的是，上面所说的都不会发生。这种民族主义在互联网上流行，现实生活中却不是。现实生活中，人们还是会需要他们的智能手机和电脑去在脸谱网上喊口号。若没有那些便宜的华为路由器，上网的人就更少了。
  
B Jai Veer, Helping Import/Export Startups at portlogy.com in India
China shall suffer a minor loss, India is buyer of a small percentage of China’s Export.

中国将遭受的损失要小的多，印度只占中国出口的一个很小比例。

However India will suffer more in following ways.

印度将在以下几个方面遭受更多损失。

As India don't manufacture electronics items (and manufacturing is not going to start in near future) these items will be imported from other countries. In most cases Chinese goods will land India via other roots, for example Thai traders will mark Chinese goods as made in Thailand sell to Indian trader (This is a common practice and there is no practical way to ban it). In effect India still shall be importing goods from China at higher prices.

印度不生产电子产品（制造业在短时间内不会崛起）这些商品通过其他国家进口。 -在大多数情况下，中国商品将通过泰国等地登录印度，他们会将中国制造的标签换成泰国制造然后卖给印度贸易商。（这是一种常见的做法，没有人去实际禁止它）。实际上，印度将以更高的价格从中国进口。

As it will violates various bilateral and international treaties, China will have diplomatic advantages over India in various issues. So India may suffer in a big way.

由于这种行为违反各种双边和国际条约，中国将在各种问题上对印度有外交优势。所以印度可能遇到不小的麻烦。

Lots of Indian goods are exported to China, like ayurvedic medicines, Machineries and many natural products, So these traders will suffer in big way. India export to China is significant of overall Indian export.

许多印度商品被出口到中国，如阿育吠陀医药、机械和许多天然产品，这些商品的贸易商会大受损失。把商品出口到中国对印度有重大意义。
All in all we should not fall pray to gimmicks of political parties, If we want to reduce import from China we should strengthen our manufacturing by promoting manufacturing and supporting entrepreneurs. Another way is, which India is doing now, is to restrict entry of finished products and promote component level import, thus reducing overall import cost and supporting local manufacturing.

总之，我们不应该祈求那些政党的政治噱头，如果想要减少来自中国的进口，我们该通过提振制造业支持创业企业家来加强自己的工业。 另一方面，也是印度正在做的，是限制成品的进口，提升进口结构水平。从而减少整体进口消费，支持当地制造业。
  
C Karunendra Mishra, love to follow Indian Economy
Trade between China and India is about USD 70 billion. Trade deficit about USD 44 billion in favour of China. Both countries targeted to increase the trade to USD 100 billion by 2020.

中国和印度之间的贸易额大约是700亿美元。我们对中国有440亿美元的贸易逆差。两国共同决定，到2020年把双边贸易额提高到1000亿美元。

Now, why India can not stop import of Chinese products? First reason is that India and China are WTO members. They are bound by WTO rules. Each member have to grant MFN status to other member country. Due to this, India can not discriminate against China. 

当前，印度为什么不能停止进口中国货呢？第一个原因是，印度和中国都是WTO成员。它们受世贸组织规则的约束。每个成员国都必须向其他成员国提供最惠国待遇。因此，印度不能对中国执行歧视性的贸易政策。

Second, India too exports about USD 16 billion products- iron ore, textile, auto components, fruits, vegetables etc. Move to close imports will attract the same treatment from China. This will also hurt the Indian economy. 

其次，印度对外出口约160亿美元的产品，包括铁矿石、纺织品、汽车零部件、水果、蔬菜等。关闭进口将引来中国的报复。也将伤害印度经济。

Third, Large trade is one of prominent factor which normalised the relations between the two countries. Thus, this may also have negative implications on peace and security at Indo-China border. 

第三、大宗贸易的一个重要因素在于两国间邦交的正常化。因此，这可能对中印边境的和平与安全带来负面影响。

Fourth, China is capital surplus nation and India is capital deficit nation with heavy need of investment. In this China can play a complementary role. It has already establised Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB) and New Development Bank(NDB) to finance the infrastructure projects in Asia.

第四、中国是资本过剩的国家，印度资本短缺，他国投资十分重要。中国可以发挥辅助作用。它已经建立亚洲基础设施投资开发银行（AIIB）和金砖银行（NDB）资助在亚洲的基础设施项目。

Most importantly, we are living in time of globalisation. Every country is interdependent on economies of other countries. We can not risk to deteriorate the trade relations with second largest economy of the world. Rather we should use this platform to resolve the border disputes with China.

最重要的是，我们生活在全球化的时代。每个国家都和其他国家的经济相互依存。我们不能冒恶化与世界第二大经济体关系的风险。相反，我们该合理利用这个平台来帮助解决与中国的边界争端。

DAnupam Arya, Lazy Bum
Hypothetically, if trade comes to a standstill, I feel that India will be hurt more than China

可以想像，如果贸易停滞不前，我觉得印度受到的伤害超过中国

Imports from China reached $48 Billion compared to exports of $18 Billion in 2012. India's exports are mostly commodities which can be substituted fairly easily while imports are machinery, telecom equipment, chemical intermediates etc. 

2012年来自中国的进口达到480亿美元，相比之下我们的住口只有180亿美元。印度的出口主要是相当容易取代的产品，而进口主要是机械产品，电信设备、中级化工设备等。

A lot of Indian goods (eg. chemicals) would become unreasonably expensive and nonviable to produce in short term if Chinese intermediates are not available. That would in turn lead to production and sales being hampered in the industries dependent on the particular industry.

许多印度产品（如化工产品）会变得不合常理的昂贵，短期内离开中国我们无法自行生产。这反过来又会导致依赖特定行业的生产和销售受到阻碍。

In the medium term, India should be able to increase production capacity of machinery as well as intermediates to mitigate the harm up to a certain level.

中期来看，印度应能够提高机械和中间产品的生产能力，一定程度上减轻损害。