如果美国欠债不还，中国能怎么样？ [美国媒体]

If USA refuses to pay its debt to China,then can China make USA pay its debt?

如果美国欠债不还，中国能怎么样？


Dennis J Frailey, Adjunct Professor(1977-present)
Answered Jul 21
Other responses to this question have donea good job of explaining this. Here are some important background facts thatmight help one understand the situation better.
China is not the largest holder of US debt.Well over half of US debt is held by US entities - citizens, corporations,banks, the social security trust fund, the retirement programs of many militaryand government employees, etc. Despite a lot of scare stories about Chinaholding US debt, they really aren’t the biggest player in this game.
Chine is not even the largest non-US holderof US debt - that honor belongs to Japan.
The only way the US could “refuse to payits debt to China” would be to default on its financial obligations - i.e.,refuse to pay interest on the various treasury instruments that China holds.Such a default is, first of all, forbidden by an amendment to the USconstitution. Secondly, it is hard to imagine how the US would get away with itunless it also defaulted on payments to all the other holders of US debt,because China could sell its US treasuries to other countries. So if the USdefaulted on all debt payments, this would have a devastating impact on theretirement programs of US citizens, the financial stability of US banks andcorporations, and, in the end, on the economic viability of the country.
But more importantly, the only way thiswould happen is if the US government were taken over by incompetents. Not justthe president, but the congressional majority and the supreme court majoritywould have to be incompetent.
If the US got into such bad financial shapethat it could not pay the interest on its national debt, it would be morelikely to print the money to do so - i.e., to create massive inflation in UScurrency. This is what has happened in Argentina, Venezuela, and othercountries that tried this technique. Other responses to this question haveexplained what a devastating effect this would have on the world economy.

其他人已经解释了很多了。这里有一些重要的事实背景，可以帮助大家更好的理解这件事。
中国不是美国国债的最大债权人。超过一半的美国国债持有者是美国境内的实体——公民，公司，银行，社会保险信托基金，很多军队和政府雇员的退休金计划等等。尽管有很多关于中国持有美债的恐怖故事，但中国真不是这场游戏里最大的玩家。
中国甚至不是最大的非美国美债持有者——这个荣誉属于日本。
美国可以“拒绝偿还中国债务”的唯一方式就是债务违约——例如，拒不向中国支付国债利息。这种违约，首先就是被美国宪法的某个修正案所禁止的。其次，想不出美国有什么办法能不支付利息给中国，除非对所有持有美国国债的实体全部违约，因为中国可以把美国国债卖给其他国家。然而，如果美国对其所有国债全部违约，将会对美国公民的退休金计划和美国公司与银行的财务稳定产生毁灭性冲击，最后，波及到全美的经济。
但更重要的是，只有一种情况下才会发生这种事，就是美国政府被一帮无能的废物占领了。不止总统要是废物，国会和高级法院里的大多数也都必须是不称职的。
如果美国财政状况沦落到如此境地，无法偿还国债利息，更有可能的情况是印更多的钞票——让美元产生巨大的通货膨胀。
阿根廷，委内瑞拉和其他一些国家都这么干过。
但其他人的解释已经表明了这将会对世界经济产生灾难性的影响。

Nathan Becker, Govt that issue their owncurrency & borrow in the same currency carry no debt.
The real question to ask is, where doeschina get the money to buy US debt? The next thing to remember is that all ofUS Debt is issued in US dollars, which only the US can create. So then, howdoes China acquire US dollars in order to buy US debt that's denominated in USdollars?  
US promptly pays off the debt as theymature and issues new bonds to meet the demand of savers. That's what makes theUS debt the most risk-free dollar-denominated financial asset. It reports thisevery day as part of the Daily Treasury Statement (DTS reports)

你真正该问的是，中国从哪来的钱买美国的国债。下一个要记住的概念是，所有的美国国债都是以发行美元的方式来实现的，而只有美国才可以印美元。所以，中国是如何获得美元来购买以美元结算的美国国债呢？



作为美元的唯一发行者，其国债也是以美元结算，美国政府永远也不会无力偿付债务。从这层意义上来说，美国政府不是靠信用市场保持运作的。此外，在国内美国国债永远都会有市场，因为只有美国政府才能创造无风险的美元资产。



当一批债务到期时，美国会迅速偿清债务，然后发行新的债券来满足投资者的需求。这使得美国国债成为了一种几乎无风险的美元金融资产。



Long Chek Juan
I kept scrolling up and down; I was surethere was more to the answer than that. Now I am more confused than ever.
What on earth can China do with a bunch ofUS Treasury bonds?

我鼠标上下翻飞的看，总觉得还应该有更多的解释。现在我比以前更糊涂了。
中国拿一大堆美国债券到底有什么用？

Nathan Becker
Good question - what can anyone do with abunch of US Treasuries? Remember US treasuries are interest bearing financialasset; while US dollars are non-interest bearing financial asset.
So China prefers to accumulate these“paper” asset in exchange for real goods and services. US gets to enjoy thesereal assets while China gets to “enjoy” their paper assets. But being the mostliquid financial asset, China could acquire real assets from others wheneverthey want, which they do. Then someone else ends up holding those paper assets.

问的好——拿着一堆美国债券有什么用？记住，美国国债是一种可衍生利息的金融资产，而美元本身则没有任何利息。
所以，比起换成实体货物或服务，中国更愿意囤积这种“纸质”资产。美国享受着实体资产，而中国也享受着他们的纸质资产。但是国债作为最具流动性的金融资产，只要中国想，可以随时换成实体资产，他们也确实是这么做的。然后买了中国抛售债券的其他人就会持有那些纸质资产。

Long Chek Juan
No idea, bro, honestly. Care to enlightenme?
I’m honestly not a financially savvyperson, so I suppose I’d have to google this further, and see what real worldbenefits China gets from holding US Treasury bonds.

说真的，还是不明白。介意再教教我吗？
说实话我对金融知识不是很懂，我觉得我得先上网搜一下，看看中国持有美国债券到底能得到什么利益。

Nathan Becker
The benefit China gets by holding UStreasuries is that it can convert them into US dollars anytime and buy realgoods from other nations including the US. US dollars are acceptedeverywhere(being the reserve currency of the world), whereas the Chinese currencyis not. Look at China’s investments in Australia and Africa to understand thebenefit of them accumulating US treasuries.

中国持有美国债券的好处就是，中国可以随时把它换成美元，从其他国家包括美国购买实体货物。哪里都会接受美元（美元现在是世界储备货币），而人民币则不会。看看中国在澳大利亚和非洲的投资，你就会明白中国囤积美国债券的好处了。

Long Chek Juan
I see.
Many people seem to be terrified that Chinais holding so much of it. Is there anything else that a country holding a lotof US currencies can do?
Can China cause a financial crisis in theUS, for example (not that it would want to)?

我懂了。
很多人看来都挺害怕中国有这么多美国债券。持有大量美国货币的国家还能做什么其他事吗？

Nathan Becker
20+ years ago the same fear was aboutJapan's holding of US treasuries. People were worried that Japan would buy upAmerica!
Why would China want to intentionallydestroy its financial holdings? Would you destroy your financial assets or makeevery attempt to ensure it is protected and holds value?
But you never know, the current USadministration under Trump is so clueless about US monetary system that intheir misguided attempt to Make America Great Again, may actually end updestroying the full faith and credit of the US government, which will cause theUS dollars to lose its value rather quickly, because no one outside the US wantto hold on to dollars anymore or sell goods and services in exchange for USdollars.

20年前日本持有美国国债的时候，人们也有这种恐惧，担心日本会买下美国。
为什么中国要故意摧毁自己的金融资产呢？你是摧毁自己的金融资产，还是会尽一切努力确保其安全保值？
但是你不知道的是，现在的川普政府对美国的金融系统一无所知，在“让国再次伟大”的错误引导下，可能真的会最终毁掉美国政府的所有信心和信用，这将使美元急速贬值，因为美国之外的国家不再想持有美元，不再想把货物和服务换成美元。

John Rand
look at it this way, what we owe china isequal to 20% of their GDP…… not something that would encourge china to go towar with us

你这么想，我们欠中国的钱相当于她GDP 的20%……中国不至于为这么点事跟我们打仗。

John Carter
Why American People always think about war

为什么美国人老想着打仗。