中国为何不控制朝鲜 [美国媒体]

Why doesn't China control Kim Jong-un?

中国为何不控制朝鲜




Joseph Williams, 就读于New Castle Chrysler High School (2016)
I remember reading a few posts on Quora that I think really made good sense of this situation.

我记得在quora上读到过几篇相关的很有道理的帖子。

One of these posts (I forgot who said it) made the implication that people are overestimating China’s ability to control North Korea, and underestimating Kim’s, shall we say, “ability to hold China hostage.”

其中一篇（忘了谁说的了）暗示人们高估了中国控制朝鲜的能力，而低估了金正恩“绑架”中国的能力。

Look, if you listened to China’s dialogue about North Korea in recent years, it’s about done with North Korea. Since the DPRK is one of China’s allies (rather, “trade buddies”) it does put China on edge that this ally acts like a crazy fool. I'm sure China could put strain on DPRK, but it doesn't want to destabilize the country.

如果你听了近些年中国有关北韩的陈述，你会觉得他们的关系差不多玩完了。由于北韩是中国盟友之一（其实更像是贸易伙伴），它疯狂愚蠢的行为的确让中国大为光火。我肯定中国能对北韩施加压力，但中国又不想破坏北韩的稳定。

Thing is, people seem underestimate just how dangerous North Korea really is.

问题在于，人们低估了北韩真实的危险程度。

First, if North Korea fell, China’s fear would be that American soldiers would be planted at the Yalu River border. That puts China at a disadvantage.

第一，如果北韩垮了，中国害怕美国军队会直接驻扎鸭绿江边。那将使中国陷入被动。

Second, people seem to underestimate the fact that if North Korea fell, we'd have one of the worst economic and social disasters in history. A “Korean War 2.0” would create a refugee crisis that blows the Syrian crisis out of the water. And China, Russia, and South Korea would have to deal with these survivors. Worse, we'd have to clean up the mess, and that could cost trillions of USD, i.e. it’d have the potential to affect even China’s economy. And that's ignoring the millions of casualties, many of whom would be dead or suffering mental problems, like PTSD.

第二，人们似乎低估了北韩垮台会导致的史无前例的经济和社会灾难。一场2.0的韩战会制造出比叙利亚危机多得多的难民。而中国，俄罗斯和南韩将不得不解决这个问题。更坏的是，解决战争的遗留问题将花费数以万亿的美元，那甚至有可能会影响到中国的经济。这还没有说战争中的死伤，很多人将患上精神疾病，如PTSD。

Third, part of the reason that such a war would be devastating is that North Korea’s military, while obsolete, is large. It has millions of soldiers, of which at least 200,000 are special forces. While the technology is obsolete, it's numerous, and as Joseph Stalin once said, “Quantity has a quality of its own.” So, even if China worked with the US, and decided to fight DPRK, it'd be in a bind itself.

第三，北韩军队虽弱但数量庞大，这将使战争极其惨烈。北韩有数百万军队，其中二十万是特种部队。军事科技虽落后，但就像斯大林说的“数量本身也有其质量”。所以，就算中国和美国合作，决定一起攻击北韩，也将损失惨重。

For what it's worth, China likely fears that it would be forced to confront the US in a war, potentially escalating into WWIII.

无论如何，中国有可能害怕被迫在战争中与美国正面冲突，那将有可能导致三战。

Simply put, China might have a lot of power over Kim, but it just might be enough.

简单地说，中国或许有很多招对付金正恩，但可能还不太够。

Now, I could be wrong, and that China really could do it but doesn't want to, since it believes that the DPRK has a right to exist.

我可能错了，中国没准有办法只是不愿意做，它可能觉得北韩有存在的权利。

But I think that the posters who said that we’re underestimating North Korea are right.

但我觉得一些帖子里说的我们低估了北韩是正确的。

Steven Wu, 就读于Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1993)
North Korea has withstood decades of wars, hardships and sanctions. It is prepared to let it's people starve to death on a massive scale as happened in the past.

北韩已经经受了几十年的战争，困难和制裁。就像过去发生的那样，它接受自己的人民大规模的死亡。北韩是一个邪教控制的流氓国家。

NK is a cult-driven rogue nation. The entire population is coerced or brainwashed into worshipping Fatty Kim. What kind of economic, political or diplomatic pressure would be effective in the face of insane obstinacy and utter disregard for human suffering?

全体人民都被胁迫或洗脑来信仰金小胖。面对这样的疯狂的顽固，对人民疾苦视若无睹，什么样的经济，政治或外交压力能产生效果呢？

Zachary Huang
China as a sovereign state has long upheld the foreign policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries.As strong economic ties as it has with North Korean,China doesn't control any government of that state,much less its almighty leader.

中国作为一个主权独立国家，一直奉行不干涉其他国家内部事务的外交政策。虽然中国与北韩经济关系密切，但中国并不能控制北韩政府，更别提金小胖。

Jonathan Buttall, 退休专家
Why should China control the leader of another country? They’re a superpower, they don’t work for the West.

为什么中国应该控制另一个国家的领导人。中国是超级大国，中国不为西方国家工作。

Why doesn’t the USA control Netanyahu? Same kind of situation. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.

为什么美国不控制一下内塔尼亚胡呢？一个道理么。毕竟唇亡齿寒。

Otto Willum Nielsen, 航班机长(1977至今)
Control him for what? The only think Kim want is a peace treaty between the two Countries as they are still at war since 1953, but the US will only go to the negotiating table if there is a regime change, and that would be on the US terms, so a US poppet and that China also don’t want.

为啥要控制他？金小胖只想要一个两国间的和平协议，1953年以来两国还处于战争状态。而美国只愿意在北韩政权更迭的情况下才愿意上谈判桌。美国想要一个听它话的政权，中国可不愿意。