中印之间会发生冲突吗?（1） [美国媒体]

Will there be a war between India and China?

中印之间会发生冲突吗?（1）





1.SaurabhKandhvey,Indian Enthusiast
AnsweredSep 2, 2015
OriginallyAnswered: Is a war between India and China reallypossible?
Asboth are developing countries so they will avoid the warunless and until somevery serious problem occurs. India is a big market forChinese products so nopoint to destroy the big market but yes they will try tomake India weaker bysupporting Pakistan and other neighbors countries.
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因为中印都是正在快速发展的国家，因此他们会尽量的避免战争，除非有很严重的问题发生。对于中国来说，印度是一个大市场，因此，没有破坏这个市场的动机。但是，中国会通过支持巴基斯坦及印度其它邻国，从而来削弱印度。

SomePoints highlighted by Firstpost:
Itwould also be instructive at this point to figure out whatChina wants and whatit may do to get what it wants.

以下是一些要点：
这些点对于推算“中国想要什么以及为了得到这些东西他们可能会如何去做”这个问题，提供一个有益的框架。

#1:The most likely territorial gain it seeks is probablyTawang in Arunachal,which houses a key Buddhist monastery that threatensChina's completedomination of ideological Tibet and its future. As long asTawang remainsIndian, China fears it could be a staging post for a futureTibetaninsurrection or even in the creation of a Dalai Lama based on Indiansoil. Aswe have noted before, Tawang is psychologically crucial to China’s holdonTibet as it was the birthplace of the 6th Dalai Lama and hosts animportant17th century Tibetan Buddhist monastery. The current Dalai Lama (the14th)spent some time in Tawang after he fled Tibet in 1959 post theChinesetakeover.

中国所寻求的领土收益最可能的是阿鲁恰纳尔邦的达旺，这个地区关乎到中国对于藏传佛教的意识形态的掌控权，并且会影响到西藏的未来。只要达旺还属于印度，它都可能成为未来达赖集团在印度的土地上，发动西藏叛乱的跳板。正如我们之前指出的那样，对于中国来说，达旺对于藏传佛教徒的心理影响是非常大的，因为它是六世达赖的出生地，直到17世纪都保持着重要的影响。现任的第十四世达赖喇嘛在中国掌控西藏之后逃离出来，他在达旺地区待了很长的时间。

#2:China believes that. It made a mistake in 1962 when itheld on to large areasof Aksai Chin in Ladakh to ensure easy access to Tibet,but voluntarilywithdrew from areas seized in the North-East, including Tawang.It wants torectify this by any means possible. This explains why it tried tointrude intoTawang in 2013. Rest assured, the Chinese troops who came by wouldhave takenexcellent pictures of the Indian fortifications and localtopography,especially details that could not have been captured from satellitecameras.

中国认为在1962年的时候，他们犯了一个错误，当他们在拉达克地区持续扩大阿克萨钦控制面积，以便能够保障进藏通道的时候，他们在东北地区主动放弃了已经占领的土地，包括达旺。他们，想要通过一些方式来修补曾经犯下的错误，这解释了为何在2013年的时候他们侵入了达旺地区。那些到达该地区的中国军队一定拍了很多印度的防御工事和地形的清晰照片，尤其是卫星相机没有抓拍到的一些细节。

#3:China's massive investment plan in Pakistan, whichincludes large areas ofPakistan-occupied Kashmir, is less about development andmore about a militarycapability. Chinese investment and construction activitiesin PoK are importantfor they indicate how much it is willing to risk in orderto defend itsinterests in the region. 

中国对于巴基斯坦有庞大的投资计划，这里面包含了很大的一片巴控克什米尔，这与其说是一个经济问题，不如说是一个增强巴基斯坦军事能力的问题。中国对于在巴控克什米尔地区进行的投资和建设的积极态度，清楚的表明了他们在该地区维护自身利益的强烈意愿。

PoKand CoK constitute the vortex of central Asia: betweenthem, they abutAfghanistan, Tibet, the Islamic republics of Central Asia andChina’s ownalienated Muslim province of Xinjiang. So China’s massive investmentisintended to maintain a military presence in this area for defensiveandoffensive reasons: it will try to block jihadi influence in Xinjiang, andalsomaintain pressure on the Indian army on the Pakistan border.

巴控克什米尔和中控克什米尔地区构成了控制中亚的枢纽，他们紧邻阿富汗和西藏，中亚的伊斯兰共和国以及中国的有大量穆斯林的省份——新疆。因此，中国的大量投资是试图保持对于该地区的军事存在以便进行攻守。它将会试图去组织伊斯兰的吉哈德在新疆的影响，同时也会对部署在印巴边界的印度军队保持压力。

Nowconsider how China may be weighing the risks and benefitsof a short war overTawang.
One,it will ask its lackey Pakistan to make the entirewestern border hot when itwants to pressure India. Pakistani firing andshelling of Indian positions hasbeen not so much on the Line of Control (LoC)but the settled internationalborder (IB). This has probably been done at theurgings of China. It means,when China winks, Pakistan can make the entireKashmir LoC and IB a livebattleground.
Two,insurgency in the North-East will keep the army busy inNagaland and Manipur,while distracting us from Arunachal.

现在，我们可以设想一下中国会如何评估在达旺地区发动一场小规模战争的风险和收益。第一，当他想要去给印度施加压力的时候，他将会让他的朋友巴基斯坦在印度的西部边境保持紧张的状态。巴基斯坦会在印巴的边界与印度交火,这些行为极有可能会在中国的力促之下发生。这也意味着，当中国示意一下，巴基斯坦能让整个克什米尔地区成为一个战场。第二，在东北部的曼尼普尔和那加兰邦的叛乱将会使印度军队疲于奔命，从而使得印度在阿鲁恰纳尔邦的注意力被分散掉。

China'scalculations could revolve around a quick surgicalstrike to capture Tawang -despite adverse terrain - or a bigger grab in Kashmirto use as a bargainingchip to gain Tawang. It may also be betting that Indiawill not fight too hardfor Tawang or threaten nuclear mayhem in retaliation.India has made themistake of not developing tactical nuclear weapons unlikePakistan, which willhave no qualms about using them if we make territorialgains on the westernfront.

中国的算计可能是发动一场外科手术式的袭击来占领达旺，不考虑地形因素，可能会在克什米尔地区占领一些地区以便于用来作为与印度进行谈判的筹码。我们也可以大胆假设印度绝对不会为了达旺而拼命或者是为了报复而威胁使用核武器。印度犯了一个错误就是没有像巴基斯坦一样发展战术核武器，这个东西在面临西部领土争端的时候，如果被使用的话，我们良心上面不会受到谴责的。

Inessence, China is developing a two-front war capabilityvis-à-vis India andhobble it with various insurgencies – a Pakistan-propped onein the west, and amore covert one in the north-east. The aim may be to get usto part withTawang, with or without a short war. With Tawang won, China willput up a showof "magnanimity" and offer to settle the borderelsewhere.
Thepoint is simple: China will not see a "short"border war asnecessarily a bad thing. India should be more than ready for it,and must loseno time preparing for it.

实际上，中国正在发展两线作战能力——西部的巴基斯坦支撑的一条战线，以及东北部更隐蔽的战线。其目标是为了将达旺从印度分离出去，借助于战争或者非战争的手段。当达旺被控制以后，中国将会展示他的“宽宏大量”，开始提议去在别处设定边界。这是很明确的，中国不会把一个短期的边界战争视为一件坏事。印度对待这件事情要提早认真进行准备，否则事到临头就没时间了。

Thekey elements of our strategy should be the following:strengthen the army'spreparedness to defend Tawang and Ladakh at all costs andmake this obvious toChina; create the new mountain corps quickly, and speed upinvestment in borderinfrastructure; create a crash pan to develop and deploytactical nuclearweapons and make it clear that these will be used only on theChina border.
Theparadox of Narendra Modi successful Asian diplomacyinvolving China's rivals(Japan and Vietnam specifically) is that China may wantto strike before Modimanages to strengthen India's economy, defences andalliances. This calculationmay have the adverse consequence of making Chinarush into a short war beforeIndia improves his fighting capabilities.
Theonly way to prevent Chinese adventurism of the 1962 kindis to prepare for one.

我们的战略安排应该遵循如下的原则：
不惜一切代价积极的对达旺和拉达克进行防卫备战，我们要向中国明确的展示这一点;建立新的山地部队；在边界地区积极的建设基础设施；建立特别预算去发展战术核武器并向中国表明这些核武器只会在中印边界地区被使用。印度总理莫迪可以施展他的外交手腕，联合中国的对手——尤其是日本和越南，麻烦的问题是中国可能会在印度加强它的经济防卫和联盟之前提前的对印度发动攻击。这种做法可能会使得中国快速的发动一场战争，从而使得印度提高军队能力的愿望产生相反的结果。制止中国像1962年那样发动一场军事冒险的做法就是为这种状况提前的做准备。

2.NakulKaushal
NakulKaushal, Associate Head of Promotion and Publicity atEntrepreneurship Cell,GLAU (2015-present)
AnsweredJul 19
Actuallythe war is not gonna happen for sure or if ithappens, it'll not take place allof a sudden.
Youmight have heard the media and peopleeverywhere that theywant war but they don't even know the consequences of it!

事实上，战争不会发生，或者说如果发生的话，绝对不会是突然发生。你可能听说过媒体或者群众期待一场战争，但是，他们并不是真的清楚战争的后果。

Onewar with any country means spending thousands of crorerupees in a quick spanof time and the risk that include of getting killed ofun-countable CIVILIANS of both the countries!
Chinais behaving like it shouldn't. We aren't the biggestmarketfor Chinese goods but we are and in globalized economy, it's almostimpossibleto boycott Chinese products but can mollify its usage !

对于任何国家的战争都会在短期内花费大量的金钱并使得双方都会产生巨大的人员伤亡。中国并没有表现出这样的意图，我们并非中国商品的最大市场，但是我们是处在全球化的经济体系里面，我们几乎没法去抵制中国的产品，仅仅是能减少对它的依赖。
 
3.AadityaVadnere
AadityaVadnere, Indian
AnsweredJun 30, 2012
OriginallyAnswered: Will India ever go to war with China?
Oftenthe impracticality of a third world war is pointed outby the fact that therival countries are major trading partners of each other.However, this has notstopped countries from going to war in the previous worldwar. Britain was infact a major trading hub for a number of nations till thewar broke out.Nuclear weapons in fact provide a clear deterrence for war.Nuclear weaponsassure mutual self destruction. Hence, no country can afford togo to warwithout preparing to sacrifice a few million of its citizens.

通常，第三次世界大战被认为是不切实际的，因为互为对手的国家之间都是主要的贸易伙伴。然而，这些经济联系并没有能够阻止之前的世界大战的发生。直到战争爆发的时候，英国对于很多国家来说都是主要的贸易伙伴。核武器成了一个威慑战争的工具，核武器使得双方可以互相毁灭。如果一个国家没有打算牺牲数百万人的话，他就不要妄想去发动战争。

Despitethis the threat of war from China still looms. This isbecause of the existenceof a totalitarian regime in China. It can happen thatto downplay a civil war,China can attack India. In the event of war, citizensof a country forget theirinternal differences and unite against the commonenemy. Thus, China candeclare war on India, to divert its citizen attention fromthe totalitarianregime and thwart any internal dissatisfaction. 

尽管有这些因素，威慑中国发动战争的理由依然很脆弱，这是因为在中国存在着极权主义。如果面临这内在的危机，中国可能会去攻击印度。在战争过程中，国家公民忘记了他们的内在冲突，从而能够团结一致的去对付敌人。中国可能会对印度宣战，以便于去转移对于极权主义的注意力或者是一些其它的不满。

CanIndia willfully declare war on any other nation? By itsprevious track record,we can safely say, NO. In most of the wars fought byIndia, it was clearlydragged in the wars. It has always tried to follow thephilosophy of nonviolence. Even when Indian citizens were being oppressed inother nations( IdiAmin forced many Indians out of Yuganda, Forceful removal ofa democraticallyelected Indian leader in Fiji etc.), India has resisted thetemptation of war.

印度有意愿去对于其它的国家宣战吗？根据以往的表现，我们可以确定的说——不会！在印度参与的各个战争中，印度都是被动卷入战争的。印度总是持有着非暴力的思想，即使当印度的国民在其它的国家被压迫的时候，印度都抵抗住了战争的诱惑。

Withits current military capabilities, there is a strongprobability that Chinawould win in a Sino-Indian conflict. China has alreadyhumiliated India in 1962war. However, as one Indian general recently pointedout, that the currentIndian military is not the under-prepared military of1962. China might win butit would not be without some serious losses.

以现在的军事实力来看，中国有极大的可能性赢得战争。中国已经在1962年让印度颜面尽失，正如一位印度的将军所指出的那样，今日的印度军队已经不像1962年那样没有准备，如果中国想要赢的话，那么它一定会付出重大的代价。

Some analysts may assume that U.S. would sideto India in aSino-Indian conflict. However, historically U.S. has eitherremained aloof fromIndian military conflicts or on the wrong side of it. U.S.didn't participate inthe second world war till the Pearl Harbor attack byJapan. With both India andChina as its trading partners, it may just remainneutral or become a negotiatorbetween them.

一些分析家声称美国在中印的冲突中将会站在印度一边。然而，历史告诉我们美国总是会选择袖手旁观。美国一直都不参与第二次世界大战直到珍珠港被日本人袭击以后。中印都是美国的贸易伙伴，美国只会保持中立或者是以一个调停者的面目出现。

4.AmeyaChavan
AmeyaChavan, Enthusiast
AnsweredJul 11
OriginallyAnswered: Will the war between China and Indiahappen again?
Nooffense but the way China is threatening India with usingmilitary might is nothappening. I hate to blow the bubble I have been reading alot on quoraregarding war between India and China, let's get few factsstraight, theproblem is between China and Bhutan, India knows this , but let megive you ashort idea the way China thinks about Tibet issue same is the Kashmirissue forIndia and more over in general India has entered Bhutan on request ofBhutaneserequest, plus Indian army had entered to calm the situation. 

中国使用军事手段威胁印度的事情并没有发生。在quora，我很讨厌那些鼓吹中国和印度之间发生战争的论调，让我们直面现实吧，问题是中国和不丹之间，印度知道这一点，让我来告诉你中国考虑西藏问题和考虑克什米尔问题是一样的，更何况，在不丹的要求之下，印度的军队已经进入不丹来给局势降温了。

Butif the Chinese are taking it other way around then it'sfine. Because India hasneither replied to any of the provocative statementsfrom Chinese government ormedia. For my Chinese friends , If you want to actlike a big brother startacting like one and act with some level of maturity.The officials in Chinaknow this very well that there are a lot of things atstake than just fightingfor a price of land. 

如果中国有其它的想法的话，也是极好的。因为印度绝没有对任何中国的政府和媒体的挑衅性的声明做出回应。对于中国朋友来说，如果你想表现的像个大哥，那你必须要表象的像个成年人。中国的官员对此是很清楚的，同争夺土地而大打出手比起来，有更多的重要的事情要做。