未来几十年你怎么看美国与更大的国家如中国，印度和欧盟的竞争 [美国媒体]

-------------译者：璐璐爱丽丝-审核者：wxfing------------



How do you see America competing with far larger nations like China India and the EU decades from now

未来几十年你怎么看美国与更大的国家如中国，印度和欧盟的竞争。


-------------译者：卡思-审核者：osmond------------

BoilerButtSlut
Just fine. None of those entities have the geopolitical advantages we enjoy. China will be a superpower in some form in the near future but we are so economically tied to them that any conflict would be disastrous for both.

好吧。 这些国家或联盟都不具有我们所享有的地缘政治优势。 中国会在不久的将来将成为某种形式的超级大国，但我们与它在经济上息息相关，任何冲突对于两个国家来说都将是灾难性的。

paulwhite959
off topic but your user name confuses me. WTF

（回复BoilerButtSlut）偏个题，但是你的名字真的让我很困惑，搞什么呀。（楼上那哥们网名翻译过来有点无法直视）

andrewman447
there is probably a great story behind that.

（回复paulwhite959）也许这名字背后藏着一个故事。

9TimesOutOf10DC
But with China having four times America's population as China continues to develop it will eventually be more disastrous for America to oppose China won't it?

（回复BoilerButtSlut）但是中国的人口是美国人口的四倍，随着中国持续发展，美国一直这样反中国的话，最终会更糟糕不是吗？

-------------译者：卡思-审核者：osmond------------

BoilerButtSlut
Population has little to do with how competitive a country is globally.
The UK a country of a few tens of millions conquered and controlled an empire of more than an order of magnitude larger in population for multiple centuries. Even then they only really abandoned it because it was more trouble than it was worth and it making them look bad internationally.

（回复9TimesOutOf10）人口数量与一个国家的全球竞争力没有多大关系。
英国不过是个数千万人口的国家，但是它征服并控制一个人口是它数量级以上倍数的帝国长达几个世纪。 尽管如此，他们最终还是放弃了这个帝国，因为它所带来的麻烦比它本身的价值还多，而且不利于英国的国际形象。

IsThisAllThatIsLeft
Look even though the EU has about twice the population of the US we have a slightly higher GDP a significantly more powerful military and so on.
China is not a long term concern. They are in an unsustainable state and about to face an economic crash and a socioeconomic disaster thanks to the one child policy- their labor force is going to shrink dramatically and there will be too many young men. India has it's own problems.
In short don't expect the US to be superseded in the next while.

（回复BoilerButtSlut）看，即使欧盟人口是美国人口的两倍，但是我们的GDP还是略高于他们，更明显的（强于欧盟的方面）还有强大的军事等等。
中国长久来看无需担忧。 由于独生子女政策，他们处于不可持续发展的状态，他们即将面临经济崩溃和社会经济灾难，他们的劳动力将急剧萎缩，单身的年轻男性过剩。 印度也有他自己的问题。
总之，不要指望美国在未来短时间内被取代。

-------------译者：璐璐爱丽丝-审核者：卡思------------

TuskenTaliban
I wasn't aware that the EU had formally united into a single nation.

我都不知道欧盟已经正式地统一成一个国家了。

Have_only_my_dreams
There is a relatively sizable federalist movement although they're still a minority.

虽然他们还只是一个少数群体，但还是可以形成一股相对来说颇为壮观的联邦制运动。

22254534
Maybe you could have said that before brexit

也许你就应该在英国退出欧盟之前这么说。

Have_only_my_dreams
European federalism in the UK is virtually non-existent. Of course you do have exceptions (the Lib Dems come to mind) but by and large the UK was/is (for now at least) one of the more 'Eurosceptic' member states as it always has been.

在英国欧洲联邦制几乎就是不存在的。当然了你也可以说有例外（突然想到英国自由民主党）但总的来说英国过去是现在也是（至少当前）诸多一直持有‘欧洲统一怀疑论’的成员国之一。

ProfessorFireHill
Is it likely to gain momentum in the EU countries?

联邦制是否有在欧洲国家崛起的势头呢？

-------------译者：shanfeng-审核者：wxfing------------

Have_only_my_dreams
Difficult to say. There are differing intergovernmental interests when it comes to integrating different social and economic areas.

难说。在不同的社会和经济方面，政府间的利益并不一致。

-ProfessorFireHill-
I see thank you for the information

明白了，谢谢你的回答。

holidayhawk
After the past 10 years or so I find it hard to believe that Germany or France would be eager to get even more tied to the economies of the other nations of the EU.

过去的十多年来，我发现很难说德国和法国更愿意和欧盟里其他的经济体联系得更紧密。

Trevor1680
I see it doing alright if we keep advancing into new fields. If I was in China and India I would be worried about automation with all that cheap labor and exports they rely on.

如果我们保持在新领域的领先态势，我觉得还行。如果我是中国或者印度人，我可能会担心工业自动化的发展会影响廉价劳动力和出口的竞争优势。

Eudaimonics
Large populations can be a liability. China and India are doing great right now because they have lot of young people.
As these nation's age they need to find a way to support their elderly. Otherwise you just need to look at Japan and some European nations to see economic stagnation.
This is a worry for the US too which is why controlled immigration can be a good thing.

大量的人口也可能成为负担。现在的中国和印度发展的好，因为他们有很多年轻人。
当这些年轻人老去的时候，中国和印度政府需要找个一个能够支持他们养老的办法。否则的话，你只需要看看日本和某些欧洲国家的经济停滞情况就知道后果了。
这也是美国需要考虑的问题，这也是为什么控制移民是件好事。

-------------译者：hht288-审核者：osmond------------

130alexandert 
Couldn't care less China is to backwards and corrupt to go any farther we can wait it out and they will implode themselves.

不必在乎，中国如此落后和腐败，我们等着就是，他们自己会崩溃的。

AiskhulosAmerican
Do people really believe this?
China certainly has its problems but it absolutely will be the world's preeminent superpower at some point in the future even if that point is 50 years in the future.
China was the largest economy in thee world for thousands of years. In the larger scheme of things it's only recently that it was dethroned by some European countries and the US. And that was only because of the industrial revolution. As China continues to catch up and industrialize there is no way it won't again become the world's largest economy.
The only way I can see that not happening is if India manages to overtake it which seems unlikely.

别人真会相信这些吗？
中国确实有它的问题，但在未来的某个时刻，它绝对会成为世界最强的超级大国，哪怕这个时间是在未来的50年。
过去几千年中国都是世界最大经济体。从更大的跨度范围来看，它只是最近才被美国和一些欧洲国家所超越。而其中原因也只是在于它没发生工业革命。随着中国继续追赶和进一步工业化，就没有什么能阻止它再次成为世界最大经济体。
除非印度超越中国，但这是不可能的。

[dexed]
I see fragmentation in the future. Not for us but for them. We will get blamed for it whether we have anything to do with it or not. If I was a secret policy maker in Washington... hmmmmm. Conspiracy....

我相信未来会有分裂。不是我们而是他们。对此，无论我们做或不做什么，我们都将受到谴责。要是我是华盛顿的秘密政策制定者......哼哼哼......搞阴谋......

-------------译者：hht288-审核者：osmond------------

pickleops
India doesn't even have plumbing. There is no real competition from them.
EU isn't a country. so lol.
China is big but it's a single-party dictatorship. That has advantages of expediency but long-term political disadvantages aka revolution.
We'll be fine.

印度甚至都没有自来水管，更不用说来自他们的真正竞争。
欧盟就不是一个国家。哈哈哈。
中国是大，但它是一党独裁。暂时来说是有优势，但是长远的政治劣势就是会导致革命。
我们会没事的。

TaylorS1986Fargo
If China and India want to compete with us they're gonna have to stop thinking blatant plagiarism by college students and faked research results is OK.

如果中国和印度要想与我们竞争，他们的大学生就必须停止赤裸裸的剽窃，伪造研究结果就好了。

LibraryLass
India's got a way to go before they catch up. Not a threat to us.
I don't think the EU is likely to unify into a single nation anytime in the foreseeable future and we have long-standing cultural and military ties to many of its member countries. They'll continue to be our allies for a long time yet.
China is the only one that might become a threat but we have quite a bit of economic leverage over them still and I think unless we make some huge blunders we'll continue to be more valuable to them as a trade partner than an enemy.

印度想要追赶我们还有很长的路要走。印度对我们不是威胁。
在未来可见的任何时间内，我不认为欧盟会统一成一个单一国家，他们的许多成员国都与我们有着长期的文化和军事联系。所以他们仍将会是我们长期的盟友。
中国唯一一个可能的威胁，但是我们对他们仍然有相当的经济杠杆优势，我想除非我们犯下巨大的错误，否则我们与中国继续做贸易伙伴比做敌人更有价值。

ArgussArkansas
I think China and India have a real shot at becoming world superpowers if they can reform their systems of government towards efficient democracies.

In such a situation I could easily see China becoming #1 in the world with India and US combining to counter their influence.
我想，如果中国和印度有效改革其政府体制以实现民主的话，他们确实有机会成为超级大国。在这种情况下，中国成为世界第一是显而易见的，而印度和美国将联合起来对抗中国的影响。