谁会赢得2020年中印大海战？ [美国媒体]

-------------译者：cyber power-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------



Right now China and India are glaring at each other across Doklam the contested ground along the Sino-Indian frontier high in the Himalayas. It was the Himalayan border that prompted their last serious fight when China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) dealt the Indians a short sharp defeat in 1962. But any future war might not be fought on the high mountains but the high seas.

当前，中印两国在喜马拉雅山边界存在争议的洞朗地区对峙。在1962年的两国间最近的一次激烈战争正是发生在此地，中国人民解放军（PLA）快速猛烈地将印度击败。但是，未来任何的战争不一定会出现在高山上，倒有可能发生在公海上。。

A Sino-Indian naval war seems improbable for sure — but so do most wars before they happen. It’s certainly not unthinkable and so it behooves Asia-watchers to lay out the odds now rather than be guilty of a failure of imagination should the worst transpire.

中印海军之间的较量似乎不大可能发生——但是大多数战争在发生之前往往都是如此。这肯定不是不可想象的，所以亚洲问题观察家理应更新评估机率，而不是在最坏的结果来到时才接受失误的判断。

Bottom line: Don’t be taken in by numbers indicating that China would steamroll India in a sea fight. Martial enterprises are seldom that neat.

重点：不要单看数字就认为中国将在海战中碾压印度。战争这种东西可没有百分百的确定性。

-------------译者：haleyyen-审核者：osmond------------

China has settled its border disputes with most in the region — but it prefers to leave the contest with some of its neighbors simmering especially India. A spokesman for China’s defense ministry Col. Wu Qian warned Indians not to “push your luck” in the Doklam dispute. For good measure Wu added that the Indian Army would find it “easier to shake a mountain than to shake the PLA.” Beyond the present conflict Chinese and Indian media have a long history of competing to see who can shout “By jingo!” in the other’s direction the loudest.

中国与区域内大部分邻国都已经解决了边境问题，但仍然与其中几个留有争议，尤其是印度。中国国防部发言人吴谦上校警告印度不要在洞朗争议问题上得寸进尺。另外，吴补充道，印度军方到最后一定回发现，撼动一座大山也比击退中国人民解放军更容易。除了现有冲突，中国和印度媒体也有很长的斗争史了，互相喊话“我们说的才是真相”。

History shows that rancor on land or in the air can easily sprawl out to sea. Or a saltwater conflict could ensue independently of events ashore. Both contestants take a proprietary view of waters off their coasts. China thinks about the South China Sea as a zone of “indisputable” or “irrefutable” sovereignty where Beijing ought to make the rules and others ought to obey. In a similar vein India models its foreign policy and strategy in part on the Monroe Doctrine and thus regards the Indian Ocean as an Indian preserve.

以史为鉴，陆地或空中的对抗很容易蔓延为海战，即使与岸上事件无关的海上冲突也可能接踵而至。对抗双方都认为远离海岸的水域的所有权属于自己。中国认为南海是中国无可争辩的主权的一部分，在这片区域，中国说了算，其他国应该服从。同样地，印度某种程度上复制中国这种充满门罗主义色彩的对外政策，把印度洋视作印度领海。

-------------译者：haleyyen-审核者：osmond------------

Such claims should have a familiar ring to Americans. During its own rise to regional and world power the United States sought to exclude powerful outsiders from the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico — its outlet to the Pacific Ocean. The Monroe Doctrine started off as a joint defense of the Americas against European imperial powers. It ended up with Washington proclaiming that its “fiat [was] law” throughout these waters and that it could exercise an “international police power” there — meddling in fellow American states’ affairs to preclude European seizures of territory in the Western Hemisphere.

这样的声明对美国人来说应该是有些耳熟的。在美国崛起成为地区霸主和世界霸主的过程中，美国设法将强大的局外国家驱逐出加勒比海和墨西哥湾，打通了它通往太平洋的通道。门罗主义始于美洲针对欧洲帝国主义列强所进行的一次共同防御，美国在这些海域宣布了“政令即法律”声明，并且在那里执行他“国际警察”的职责--- 干预、管辖其他美洲国家事务，阻止欧洲对西半球领土的占有。

The sense that nearby seas constitute a rightful mare nostrum — ancient Romans thought of the Mediterranean as “our sea” — means that Indians and Chinese are predisposed to resent and oppose apparent encroachment by outsiders in these seaways. Fishing disputes or undersea drilling take on particular resonance; natural resources concentrate minds in Asian capitals. Indians look askance at China’s “One Belt One Road” initiative which aims to build infrastructure and aid economic development along Eurasia’s historic silk roads land and sea.

我附近海域就是属于我的合法的海域---古罗马认为地中海就是“我们的海”---这种观念意味着印度人和中国人可能在海上航道被所谓外来者侵犯时感到气愤并抵制。渔业争议或者海底钻井激起了特别的共鸣，自然资源是亚洲各国的关注焦点。印度带着怀疑的目光看待中国提出的的“一带一路“政策，尽管”一带一路“旨在加强基础建设，促进欧亚古丝绸之路上的国家的经济发展。

-------------译者：奔走的兔子-审核者：jumpingiruka------------

And Chinese courtship of South Asian coastal states looks suspiciously like an effort to construct a “string of pearls” or network of naval bases in the Indian navy’s traditional operating grounds. Most recently Beijing negotiated a 99-year lease of the Sri Lankan seaport of Hambantota lodging itself firmly in the subcontinent’s environs while Chinese engineers have fortified their naval station in Djibouti in the extreme western reaches of the Indian Ocean.

而且中国跟南亚沿海国家的交往看起来甚为可疑，像是要在印度海军的传统作战区域建设“珍珠链”或海军基地。最近，北京方面议定了位于汉班托特的斯里兰卡港口的99年租约，将自己牢牢安置在印度次大陆的周边地区，同时中国工程师在印度洋最西端的吉布提加强了他们的海军基地。

In short the kindling for marine conflict is increasingly in place while any number of quarrels between New Delhi and Beijing could strike the match. So who would come out on top in an armed conflict? Well the two navies are roughly comparable in aircraft-carrier aviation operating one modest flattop apiece. That parity in numbers appears set to persist for some years but carrier aircraft aren’t the whole of naval striking power.

总之，海上冲突的导火索逐步就位，新德里和北京之间的任何争议都可能将其点燃。那么谁会在武装冲突中占优势？两国海军在航母操作方面实力相当。这一平衡可能会持续数年，但航母并不是全部的海军打击力量。


-------------译者：五味子.-审核者：956245377------------

HanSolo
India has home field advantage Nicobar Island chain will be a major factor for this naval confrontation. The Chinese Economy will collapse if they get blocked at the opening of the Malacca Strait but then this is why they had done everything to have their new base in Djibouti. IMHO in a giving time the Indian will gain Air Superiority over the Indian Ocean and it will be over.

印度有主场优势  尼科巴群岛在这场海战中会起到关键作用 . 如果中国在马六甲海峡被封锁 他们的经济就会崩溃 . 这也是他们竭力在吉布提打造新基地的原因 . 恕我直言 在海战开始一段时间后 印度会在印度洋上取得空中优势 那战争也就到了快要结束的时候了.

George
Copycats are goners - nobody have any sympathy for them!

抄袭者都要死 - 没人会同情他们 !

StevenH
willful thinking just fails every time. India has pushed its "homemade" aircraft carriers three times and still may not even 50% done. China started way later and its second one is ahead of schedule to be handed over to the navy next year. I would rather see the cooperation between the two countries and benefit both. Yet so many Indians treat China as the most arch rival instead of opportunity. Very sad. Regarding the military India has zero chance to win war against China. Just face it

任性的想法只能导致失败 . 印度推动的 "自主建造" 的航母(下水)了三次 完成进度却似乎仍然不足50% .   中国开工建造航母的时间比印度更晚 但是中国的第二艘航母的建造却已经提前完成 并会在明年交付海军 . 我更希望看到的是两国之间的合作共赢 . 然而如此之多的印度人视中国为头号对手而不是机遇 . 真是可悲. 关于军力方面 印度在与中国的战争中取胜的几率是零 . 接受现实吧.

 -------------译者：天羽屠龙舞-审核者：956245377------------

Ritesh
I thought CPEC was Pakistan's self conforting stuff.

我认为CPEC是巴基斯坦的自我安慰的东西。

Marvin
@BearhuggingModi it's a shame China doesn't have anything to comfort itself with. All the odds are stacked against it.

@BearhuggingModi 这简直就是耻辱，中国没有任何可以自我安慰的东西，所有的可能都不利于它。

W
so full of themselves time for them to go take a nap.

所以他们有充足的时间让他们去小睡一会儿

BearhuggingModi
I love to read self comforting stuff from Indians

我很爱看到印度人自我安慰的东西。

Marvin J
I'm going with India in a close one...don't be surprised if China pulls ahead early but India has a better bench...110-107 India...

我将站在印度这边...如果中国前期占据优势不要惊讶，然而印度有更好的后备力量...110-107印度....

Rane
Obviously the US will win the China -India war

很明显，美国将会赢得中印战争。

Dawgzilla
The U.S. essentially has India's "back" so India here!

美国基本上是在给印度撑腰，所以印度赢！

-------------译者：Ness-审核者：956245377------------
Dawgzilla
@Highest Rated Highest: No not really if at all! Touche'! How 'bout yourself?!

@Highest Rated Highest: 就算真的有这样的说法也不是真的！讲得好！你自己怎么样？！

Highest Rated
Lol. India buys it's weapons from Russia. Always has. Delusional much?

哈哈，印度购买的武器来自俄罗斯。总是购买。这是想太多了？

Marvin
This analysis is at best half-baked. China needs at least three decades of naval experience and shipbuilding before it could think of posing a credible challenge to India in the Indian Ocean. But India will also be moving ahead during that time so the gap in capabilities will only widen. The Indian Navy has also proved its mettle during the Indo Pak war of 1971 and though it was only puny Pakistan that it brushed over the engagement happened on both sides of the subcontinent 1000's of miles apart and therefore was no ordinary feat. Indian navies have been strutting around the Indian Ocean for at least a 1000 years before China even ventured anywhere near the Indian Ocean. China should not be counted in the same class as India. I sincerely believe Indonesia has better naval 'pedigree' than China. .

这个分析是分析了最理想的情况，这是一个不成熟的分析。中国至少需要三十年的海军经验和造船，才会在印度洋对印度构成有力的挑战。但印度也将在这段时间内提升军队实力，因此能力差距只会扩大。印度海军在1971年的印巴战争中也证明了自己的勇气，尽管它的对手是微不足道的巴基斯坦，它掠过了1000英里以外的次大陆进行交战，并不是什么寻常的壮举。印度海军已在印度洋昂首阔步至少1000年，中国却很少进入这片海域。中国对该地区的影响力不如印度。我真诚地相信印度尼西亚的海军在印度洋这片海域里比中国海军更具传统影响力。

-------------译者：半开天窗-审核者：956245377------------

tangible
Volume production capability in China for over 2 decades. They can stand the fight. But it won't happen; neither side needs the embarrassment.

中国拥有大量的制造能力已经二十多年了。他们经得起战争。但战争并不会发生；两边都不想丢脸。

StevenH
LOL once again India has pushed its "homemade" aircraft carrier three times into the ocean. Still hangs out next to the dock. Indian industrial capacity is like in the elementary school. You can not brag a thing that we are so not capable of. Joke stock!

哈哈，印度已经三次下水国产航母了。还是都停在码头旁边。印度的工业能力简直就是小学水平。你并不能吹嘘一个我们不擅长的东西。都是笑话！

old guy
India will win because most of them get reincarnated.

印度会赢，因为他们大都会转世。

Kutha
They're not gonna go to war. This is just a marketing scheme by both countries to sell Indo-Sino War Part 2 shirts and hats. Don't fall for it guys.

不会有战争的。这只是中印两国制定的营销计划，以此来销售中印第二次战争的T恤和帽子。别上当呀，同志们。

DM
The sharks will win. Lots of dead bodies in the water.

鲨鱼会赢。因为水里面都是死尸。

-------------译者：天羽屠龙舞-审核者：956245377------------

Ryan
Sharks have been winning since like 127000000 B.C.

鲨鱼自公元前127000000年就赢了。

Marvin
the sharks always win.

赢家永远是鲨鱼。

George C
Probably India

可能是印度。

Ritesh
The Soviets were thousand times stronger then the Afghans same thing with Americans in Vietnam Korea Afghanistan and Iraq. Look at the outcomes of those war. Having a stronger military dont mean nothing its all about strategy. China will need a massive supply chain to fight and now India owns it's own tactical satellites where each and every Chinese position can be photographed and bombed. China know it thats why they haven't attacked yet.

苏联当时比阿富汗强大千倍，美国也比越南，朝鲜，阿富汗和伊拉克强大千倍，看看这些战争的结果。拥有更强大的军事实力不意味着什么，（结果）取决于战略。中国将需要庞大的供应链支持作战，现在印度有自己的战术卫星来监视和轰炸中国的任何地点。中国知道这一点，这就是中国还没有发动攻击的原因。

francois1502
China is not attacking anyone..not in their country's nature..tell when was the last time China went to war...war doesn't benefit anyone...especially China...and they knows this...

中国现在没有在攻击任何人..不符合他们的国家性质..看看中国最近一次进行战争是什么时候...战争不会是任何人受益...特别是中国...并且他们知道这些...