【美国Quora】史蒂夫班农对中国的评估正确吗？ [美国媒体]

Is Steve Bannon's assessment of China correct?

史蒂夫班农对中国的评估正确吗？


Joseph Wang, studied at Ph.D Astronomy UT Austin, Physics MIT
Yes, but he is an idiot about what to do about it.

是的，但他是个不知道该怎么办的傻瓜。

So people on Quora often ask “Why do Chinese people believe that democracy is a US plot to keep China weak?” Well, when you have people like Steve Bannon publicly talk about how the US is in an economic war with China, it doesn’t take that much of a conspiracy theorist to think that maybe China be worried about this “freedom and democracy” thing.

Quora上经常有人问“为什么中国人相信民主是美国用来削弱中国的阴谋”。 好吧，当你有史蒂夫·班农这样的人公开谈论美国如何与中国开展经济战时，这并不需要耗费太多努力就能让一个阴谋论者相信也许中国应该担心“自由民主”什么的。

OK, if you just run the numbers, it’s going to be obvious that the Chinese economy is going to surpass the US economy. So Bannon believes that the United States should declare economic war against China and keep China poor.

OK，如果你只看数字，很显然中国经济将超越美国。所以班农相信美国应该向中国发动经济战，让中国保持贫困。

The trouble with this is that this involves keeping 1.3 billion people poor, and that’s just not going to work. Also, those 1.3 billion people have a lot of spending power, and if you keep them poor, they won’t be able to do stuff like buy iPhones.

麻烦在于这是涉及13亿人的贫困，这是行不通的。13亿人拥有巨大的消费能力，如果你让他们保持贫困，那么他们将买不起IPHONE之类的东西了。

What Bannon seems to have forgotten is that US power has always been based on providing a vision where everyone benefits. My father was a deeply patriotic Chinese soldier, and he ended up in the US because the US was talking about how freedom and democracy would make China strong.

班农看起来已经忘记了美国的权力一直都建立在提供一个人人受益的愿景之上。我的父亲是一个非常爱国的中国军人，他最后在美国度过了晚年，因为美国一直在谈论自由民主将如何使中国强大。



上图内容： 在10月10日国庆日，我们向中华民国致敬。
中国——我们与日本作战的第一位盟友。
中国——尽管遭受战争，仍然和我们150年前一样，朝民主的方向奋勇前行。
帮助她勇敢战斗！
美国援华联合会，国家战争基金会成员机构

It turned out that there were other people in the family that were equally patriotic but ended talking to Russians rather than Americans.

结果这个家里还有其同样爱国的人，最后选择了苏联而不是美国。

The thing that the US *should* be doing is first of all “balancing.” China is going to be a major economic power, but so is India, Africa, Southeast Asia, and Russia. It’s going to be a multi-polar world, and so the other countries will keep China in line. The trouble is that if your economic strategy involves declaring economic war against China, then you’ll also have to declare economic war against India, Russia, and everyone else in the world.

美国“应该”做的事首先是“平衡”。中国将成为主要的经济力量，但是印度、非洲、东南亚、俄罗斯也同样。这将是一个多极的世界，所以其他国家将让中国保持在线。麻烦在于如果你的经济策略包括对中国发动经济战，那么你也将不得不对印度、俄罗斯和世界上其他国家发动经济战。

The second thing that the US should do is this “soft power” thing. The US *used* to be the ideological leader of the world, but it’s losing that very rapidly. China is going around and telling people “we want to be rich and powerful, but we’ll be rich and powerful by helping you become rich and powerful.”

美国应该做的第二件事是“软实力”。美国“曾经”是世界上的意识形态领袖，但是他正在迅速失去这一地位。中国却正四处奔走，告诉人们“我们想变得富强，但是我们是通过帮助你们富强来使得自己富强。”

I mentioned that over the last three to six months I’ve become wildly pro-CCP, and I’ve totally given up on the Chinese democracy movement. People forget that the purpose of Chinese democracy was to make China a rich and powerful country. But the idea of Chinese democracy making China rich and powerful is dead. People like Bannon have killed that idea.

我有提到，在过去3-6个月间，我变得很亲共，并且完全放弃了中国的民主运动。人们已经忘记了中国民主的目的是使中国成为一个富强的国家。但是中国的民主让中国富强的想法已经不复存在。像班农这样的人已经扼杀了这一想法。

You may have noticed that I’ve been missing from Quora, and you might suspect that I’ve been in some Communist reeducation camp. Well….
The reason I’ve been missing is that right now Beijing is in this big “green energy” kick. Beijing has concluded that we have to do something about global warming, and the solution is to move away from coal and spend money on solar. The other thing that they’ve decided is that China has to embrace some of the new financial technologies, like bitcoin, blockchain, and coin offerings. So I’ve been really business doing deals involving solar energy and bitcoin, and that’s keeping me really busy. The thought has occurred to be that by making me work on solar energy deals, that it’s part of some evil plot to make sure that I have less time to argue politics, but hey…..

你也许已经注意到，我已经从Quora上消失了一段时间，你也许会猜想，我是不是被抓进了某个中国再教育集中营。嗯……我消失的原因是，现在北京进行的让人激动的“绿色能源”革命。北京已经决定我们必须要对全球变暖采取行动，解决方式是远离煤炭，而把资金投入太阳能。另外一件他们已经决定的事是，中国必须接受一些新的金融技术，比如比特币、区块链和代币发行。所以我一直在做关于比特币和太阳能的交易，这让我变得很忙。我有时候会想，也许让我忙于太阳能交易是某个邪恶阴谋的一部分，以确保让我没时间去争论政治话题，但是，喂，别逗了……

But the fact that the Chinese government is talking about green energy and saving the planet, and by the way making tons of money doing it, at the same time Trump has pulled out of the Paris Accord, is pretty depressing.

中国政府正在讨论绿色能源，拯救地球，并顺便赚了很多钱，然后与此同时特朗普却退出了《巴黎协定》，这真是让人沮丧。

One other thing that I’ve found is that I’ve been trying to use bitcoin to move money out of China. You have a lot of Chinese people that want EB-5 visas, and they can get it by investing in real estate deals. It turns out that a lot of these real estate deals involve funding Trump’s company to build Las Vegas casinos. The reason that you haven’t heard any of that, is that it’s completely legal, and once you track the money it makes Trump look like a great businessman.The Chinese investors get US citizenship, and once they get US citizenship all of their money is subject to US tax so the US gets money. Most of the money ends up building projects in Las Vegas, which means that you end up hiring a lot of construction workers, and once the casinos are built, you end up getting lots of Chinese tourists to spend money. The New York Times did a story on this a few months back, but I think they stopped it once they realized that it made Trump look good. The big complaint that i’ve heard is that Trump’s company is really slow at paying back the EB-5 loans to the investors.

另一件我发现的事是，我一直在设法使用比特币把钱从中国转移出去。有大量中国人想通过投资房地产交易来获得美国的EB-5签证。而很多这些房地产投资交易都是为特朗普的公司修建拉斯维加斯赌场提供资金。你从来没有听说过这个的原因，是因为这个完全是合法的，一旦你追踪到这些（从中国的流入的)钱，这会让特朗普看起来是一位伟大的商人。中国的投资者获得美国公民身份，而一旦他们获得美国公民身份，他们所有的钱就要向美国缴税，这样美国政府就能得到钱。大部分的钱最终用于建设拉斯维加斯的项目，这意味着你最终要雇佣大量的建筑工人，而一旦这些赌场建起来，又会有大量的中国游客来消费。《纽约时报》在几个月前曾经对此事做了报道，但是我认为他们一意识到这会让特朗普看起来更好，就停止了这个报道。我听说过的最大抱怨是特朗普的公司在想投资者偿还EB-5贷款的时候真的很慢。

But the fact of the matter is that Trump is making tons of money from China, so I doubt he is too interested in this “economic war” since if there was an economic war with China, he’d lose.

但事实是特朗普从中国赚了很多钱，所以我怀疑他是否会对经济战真的感兴趣，因为即便有中美经济战的话，他也将输掉。

But the silver lining is that Bannon is out. He is not only an idiot, he is a dangerous idiot. Does he really believe that you can have “economic war” without turning into a situation where you won’t have war with bullets and nukes? If the national goal of the United States is to keep China weak and poor, does he really think this can be done without shedding blood at some point or risking mushroom clouds?

万幸的是，班农出局了。他不仅是个傻瓜，还是个危险的傻瓜。他真以为你能够发动一场没有硝烟的“经济战”吗？如果美国的目的是让中国贫弱，他真以为可以在不流血或者不冒着核战争危险的情况下，实现这一目的吗？

Robin Daverman, World traveler
LOL. This current Administration is lacking a lot of things. It’s lacking a credible team, expertise in many areas, policy clarity, consistency, leadership, viable plans, self-control, etc. But there’s one thing it’s not lacking----Morons.

哈哈，本届政府缺乏很多东西。缺乏一个可靠的团队，各领域专家，政策的清晰和一致性，缺乏领导力，切实可行的计划，自我控制力等等。但是有一样东西是它不缺乏的——蠢货！

Could somebody please inform the late lamented White House strategist that if you want to make a bonsai, you gotta start from a seedling, specific kind of seedling, and you have to maintain complete control of its environment forever?

有谁能拜托告诉这位已经离去的白宫策略师，如果你想要制作一个盆景，那么你要从幼苗开始，特殊品种的幼苗，并且你要一直保持对它生长环境的完全控制。



By the time something has become a full-grown giant fruit tree, you are kinda too late??

一旦它长成一株巨型果树，已经为时太晚。



And you see all that fruit up there? So you’ve been occasionally watering that tree, protected that tree from other grasping hands, and now it’s grown to be -

你看到了上面这些果实了吗？你偶尔给树浇浇水，保护它不被其他人摘取，现在它成长为了——

the biggest market for cars; 

最大的汽车市场

the biggest market for smart phones; 

最大的智能手机市场

the second biggest movie market for Hollywood movies;

好莱坞电影第二大市场

the third biggest pharmaceutical market in the world, and the fastest growing; 

世界上第三大制药市场，并且是增长最快的市场

Home of the top four biggest banks in the world with dollops of money; 

拥有大量现金的全球排名前四的银行都在中国

…
Just when every other country is picking at the fruit, Mr. Bannon suggests that the US should disengage. Excellent timing, isn’t it? Just so that the German cars can dominate the Chinese market, the Chinese domestic smart phones will totally own the market, the Koreans have a bigger say in the Chinese entertainment market, and the Europeans and India grab that giant Chinese pharmaceutical market, and all that money will flow to Africa, to central Asia, to Europe, to be used to build up the local economy and infrastructure…

正当其他国家正在摘取这些果实时，班农先生建议美国应该退出。真棒的时机，不是吗？这样的话，德国汽车就会主导中国市场，中国国产智能手机会一统江山，韩国人会在中国娱乐产业拥有更多话语权，而且欧洲人和印度人将夺取中国巨大的制药市场，所有这些钱将流入非洲、中亚、欧洲，用于当地的经济和基础建设。

I don’t know… did the US government secretly “rendition” Mr. Bannon’s parents to Guantanamo to be waterboarded or something, that he should hate the Americans so much? -/s

我不知道，难道美国政府秘密“引渡”了班农先生的父母到关塔那摩去接受水刑吗？以至于他这样恨美国？

Alex Jouravlev, works at Business Abstraction
Not entirely. Yet again, Bannon is a politician and a media executive, not a humble Quoran with pathological dislike of BS who writes his posts for a couple of followers who still read them. So he has to keep it simple, to accommodate the public’s desire to hear who are the heroes and who are the villains.

并不完全对。再说一次，班农是一位政客和一位媒体执行主席，而非某个不起眼的为了几个粉丝写帖子的Quora用户。所以他必须简单直白，以迎合公众想听到谁是英雄谁是恶棍的欲望。

Yes, the curves do show that China will overtake US in 30 years. However, to follow Hegel, the quantity of growth and other processes will transition into the quality of significant changes. Or, to flip it around, both countries need to successfully enact qualitative changes, to become quite different countries, in order to continue the exponential quantitative growth. And in both cases, their ability to enact such changes is far from certain.

是的，一些数据曲线确实表明中国将在30年内超越美国。然而，就像黑格尔说的，量变引起质变。或者，为了扭转这一局面，两个国家都需要成功实现质变，成为两个相当不同的国家，以便继续指数级的数量增长。以上两种情况中，它们进行这种质变的能力都远未确定。

We all know that predicting something for 30 years ahead is rather ridiculous. Say, take 20th Century, from 1915 to 1945. Smooth growth, nothing to write home about????

我们都知道预测未来30年的事情是相当荒谬的。就说20世纪吧，从1915年到1945年，（谁能预料到会有两次世界大战呢？难道说）是平稳增长，波澜不惊吗？

Even the last 30 years, from 1987 to 2017, although not as dramatic, seen some fundamental shifts that resulted in the economy. USSR collapsed, turned into fully submissive disarming Russia then into Putin’s Russia, Sunni Islamic Extremism turned from a supported and nurtured ally to a major enemy, US political defence of the Gulf monarchies evolved into full-scale very expensive wars. And China added infrastructure and debt economy to manufacturing. And killed significant share of her arable land. And EU has the refugee crisis.

即便是最近的30年，从1987到2017，虽然没有（1915到1945年）那样戏剧性，但在经济领域中还是发生了一些根本性的转变。苏联解体，变成了俯首帖耳的俄罗斯，之后又进入了普京的俄罗斯时代。逊尼派伊斯兰极端主义从一个我们支持培养的盟友变成了主要敌人。美国对海湾君主制国家的政治防御转变为耗资巨大的全面战争。而中国在制造业之外，又增加了基础建设和债务经济，并大规模削减耕地。欧洲正面临难民危机。

In the next 30 years we will have robotic manufacture, transportation and warfare. We can also have the disenfranchised class in US growing past 50% of the electorate. We can have collapse of debt economy in China. We can have major wars in the Gulf - Saudi’s US$450 billion worth of weaponry purchase is not for parades. We can have US$ losing its world currency status - or not. We can have the relationships between European Union and China everywhere from hot warfare in 3rd countries to full symbiosis and fast train link delivering goods in 48 hours. And a lot of other changes.

在未来30年，我们将看到，机器人会被用于制造、运输和战争。被剥夺选举权的阶级将占全体选民的50%以上。中国的债务经济将奔溃。海湾地区将发生几场主要战争——沙特阿拉伯4500亿美元的军购可不是拿来检阅的。美元将会失去其世界货币的地位——也许不会。欧盟和中国的关系将转变成全面共生关系，快速列车将在48小时内运输货物。还有其他大量的改变。

It is the ability to enact positive changes and prevent negative that will define the future US-China standing, not the growth curves.

恰恰是这种趋利避害的能力，而不是那些增长曲线，将定义未来的中美关系。

Daniel Ptashny, Has "a very good brain"

China will, most likely, surpass the the United States as the world’s largest economy in raw GDP (GDP MER)[1][2] . However, this doesn't tell the whole story. China is already ahead of the the US in another common economic yardstick, GDP PPP (GDP adjusted for the amount of goods and services that can be purchased for the same amount of money in different countries)[3] .

单从原始的GDP数据来看，中国极有可能超过美国成为世界上最大的经济体。然而，这不是全部的故事。从另一个经济标准来衡量，中国已经超过了美国，这一衡量标准是购买力平价算法的GDP（将国内生产总值调整为同一种货币条件下在各国所能购买到的商品和服务的总和。）



（上图显示在2014年，中国按照购买力平价算法的GDP已经超过了美国）

Steve Bannon is also correct that China’s media and other various publications have been discussing China overtaking the US economically for years. In particular, the Global Times, a nationalistic (and often bombastic) Chinese media outlet, often touts China’s coming rise as inevitable.

史蒂夫班农也正确指出了中国的媒体和其他各类出版物多年来一直在讨论中国在经济上超越美国。尤其是，《环球时报》，一家民族主义的（经常夸夸其谈的）中国媒体，四处吹嘘中国崛起是不可避免的。

However, there are a number of obstacles in the way of China’s rise. For one, China has a severe problem with water shortages and desertification[4] . In general, a lack of enough natural resources could hamper the country's fast-paced growth[5] . More importantly, China’s aging population threatens to slash the country’s advantage in productivity[6] .

然而，在中国崛起的道路上还有很多障碍，中国有严重的水资源短缺和沙漠化问题。总体而言，缺乏足够的自然资源将妨碍这个国家的快速发展。更为严重的是，中国的老龄化问题威胁着中国在生产力方面的优势。

“Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it."

“凡是不注重前车之鉴的人，必将重蹈覆辙。”

With this quote in mind , let me show you this picture.

“请记住上面这句话，和我一起来看看下面这张图片。”



“British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, landing at Heston aerodrome on 30 September 1938 after his meeting with Hitler at Munich. In his hand he holds the peace agreement between Britain and Germany”

“1938年9月30日，英国首相张伯伦与希特勒在慕尼黑会面后，降落在赫斯顿机场，他手中拿着英德和平协议。”

The entire world knew at this time what Hitler’s intensions were. It was wishful thinking from PM of Britain that Hitler would not try to take over the world.
The biggest point here is at this time of the “peace” , Britain had the ability to crush Germany with low costs to Britain. But Britain choose the path of peace. Britain let Germany grow to fulfill her hostile intensions.

整个世界都知道那时希特勒的意图是什么。英国首相却一厢情愿地认为希特勒不会试图接管世界。最大的问题在于，在这个“和平”时期，英国本来有能力以最小的代价击垮德国。但是英国人却选择了和平道路。英国让德国的野心得以成长实现。

Prewar. Beautiful London

战前，美丽的伦敦



London being pounded by “peaceful” Hitler Germany Blitz.

“爱好和平”的希特勒发动闪电战后，遭受重创的伦敦





If PM Mr Chamberlain had attacked Germany with allies before they became powerful, that kid on the above picture would be sipping his milk in a school.

如果张伯伦先生能够连同盟友对德国先发制人，那么上图中那个孩子就会在学校里喝着牛奶。

Coming to China!

现在来说说中国！

China has a history of giving deceptive signals. They seem to be saying something but their actions suggest otherwise.

中国一向表里不一。说一套，做一套。

China mentioned that they are making sure Korea does not get armed with Nukes but

中国说他们正在确保朝鲜不会装备核武器，但是

Pakistan’s sale of nuclear materials to N Korea hushed up by China

中国掩盖了巴基斯坦向北朝鲜出售核原料的事实。

North Korea appeared to use China truck in its first claimed ICBM test

北朝鲜似乎在第一次洲际弹道导弹实验中使用了中国卡车。

Is China actually making sure they want to maintain peace in the region as they claim.

中国是否真的像它宣称的那样想要维持该地区的和平呢？

Is China selective in their policy on following international rule of law ?

中国在做政策决策时有遵守国际法规定吗？

Beijing rejects tribunal's ruling in South China Sea case   

北京拒绝接受南海仲裁案的裁决。

How is China faring with her neighbours?  

中国和邻国关系如何？

Duterte says China's Xi threatened war if Philippines drills for oil   

杜尔特说中国的习近平威胁如果菲律宾钻探（南海）石油，将引发战争。

Australia to boost military spending by $21 billion as China ramps up aggression

随着中国加大侵略力度，澳大利亚将增加210亿美元的军费开支

'Get used to it' China says as it flies bombers near Japan  

中国称，中国轰炸机出岛链将常态化，日本应“习惯它”

China reportedly threatens Vietnam into ending energy exploration in South China Sea  

据报道，中国威胁越南结束在南海的能源勘探

China says hopes Mongolia learned lesson after Dalai Lama visit

中国称希望蒙古在达赖喇嘛访问后汲取教训

New worry for Modi as China takes deep root in Nepal, a place where anti-India fire is so easy to fan

莫迪的新担忧——中国扎根于尼泊尔，这是个反印之火极容易被点燃的地方

China behind Pak’s growing confidence, supplies 63% of Islamabad’s arms need

巴基斯坦信心增长的背后——中国供应了伊斯兰堡63%的武器

San Bernardino shooter was a Pakistani who became known as a 'Saudi girl'

圣贝纳迪诺枪击案凶手是一位巴基斯坦人，被称为“沙特女孩”

Communist China has a distinct ways of identifying their potential foes. They simply use their state media to plant hostile ideas towards nations they want to fight with into their citizens.

中国有一种独特方式来识别他们潜在的敌人。如果他们想要和某国斗争，他们只要简单地利用官方媒体将敌对思想植入民众之中。

Chinese state media often refers to any nations that has good relations with US as “Pawns”.

中国官方媒体经常将亲美国家称为“棋子”

Chinese folks here in Quora have answers that show the result of the China’s attitude toward the west.

中国民众在Quora上的回答，显示了中国对西方的态度

One would say Chinese folks are radicalized against Japan .

中国民众激进反对日本。

China has border disputes with nearly all her neighbours clearly showing Expantionist attitudes.

中国和几乎所有邻国都有边境争端，表明了其领土扩张的态度。

China’s territorial dispute

经济学人：中国的领土争端

Chinese actions don't seem to match their voice that seems to empathize peace.

中国嘴上强调和平，实际行动却相反。

I would like to finish my answer with

我想以下面这张图来结束我的回答：



“hide your strength, bide your time.” - Deng Xiaoping

“韬光养晦”（直译：隐藏实力，等待良机）——邓小平

China has hidden their strength and bid her time. The sad part of the equation is US is still funding China with a trade surplus of around 350 Billion USD.

中国在韬光养晦，而可悲的是，美国却仍然在给中国提供3500亿美元的贸易顺差。



I think it is extremely stupid if you fund your own enemy to your demise.

我认为美国以身饲虎是极其愚蠢的。（译者：你这“爱好和平”的印度人就这么希望中美打起来？）

As much as I despise the racist attitude from the likes of Bannon. Unfortunately Bannon is right on the money on China.

虽说我也同样鄙视班农的种族主义态度，但不幸的是，班农对中国的评估是正确的。

Jerry Mc Kenna, Avid birder and amateur astronomer
A lot of the information is correct, but we aren’t in an economic war with China, at least not in the way Bannon means. The US economy grew in the 19th century and even if it surpassed that of the UK and other European countries, it wasn’t a zero sum game. In the same way China’s rise isn’t a disaster for the US. In many ways it was a boon. A wealthy China is a peaceful China.

他说的大部分信息是正确的，但是我们并没和中国进行经济战，至少不是以班农的方式。美国经济在19世纪成长起来，即使它超越了英国和其他欧洲国家，这也不是一个零和游戏。同样，中国的崛起对美国来说并不是灾难。在很多方面来说，反而是种馈赠。一个富有的中国会是一个和平的中国。

There is lots of room for improvement, Chinese often have a very loose way of handling intellectual property, but that doesn’t negate what is good. Is France a disaster because it isn’t the leading country the way it was in the 18th century? Of course not. Bannon is paranoid.

中国确实有很多改进的余地，比如中国通常用一种很宽松的方式处理知识产权，但是这并不能抵消中国的优点。难道说因为法国在18世纪不是一个领先的国家，因此法国就是个灾难吗？当然不。班农过于偏执了。

The US can happily live in a world in which China is the wealthiest nation. Only crybabies like Trump and Bannon are bothered.

即便中国成为了最富有的国家，美国也能快乐地与之共存于这个世界。只有像特朗普和班农这样的爱哭鬼才会为之烦恼。