中国对反对派在缅甸的胜利采取务实对策 [美国媒体]

China Takes Pragmatic Approach To NLD Victory In Myanmar

中国对反对派在缅甸的胜利采取务实对策



图：中国政府称希望昂山素季政党不破坏中缅经济纽带。

SHANGHAI -- China has praised the smooth running of Myanmar’s elections, and said before the National League for Democracy’s (NLD) victory was confirmed Friday that it was willing to work with whichever party won, to continue to develop bilateral ties. Given that China has been Myanmar’s biggest trade and investment partner for many years that would seem only natural.

上海报道——中国对缅甸选举的顺利进行表示赞赏，并在周五全国民主联盟（NLD）的胜利得到确认之前就表示，无论哪一个政党最终胜利，中国都将很高兴与其合作，继续发展中缅双边关系。作为多年以来缅甸最大的贸易与投资伙伴，中国采取这种态度是非常自然的。



But in practice the NLD’s victory raises some awkward issues for Beijing, not least Aung San Suu Kyi’s long-time advocacy of democracy, which China says is not appropriate for its own people.  And there are also questions over Myanmar’s increasingly close relations with the U.S.

但实际上，NLD的胜利给中国政府带来了一些麻烦，这些麻烦并不止限于昂山素季一直支持的，但被中国政府认为并不适合中国人民的民主，还包括缅甸不断加强与美国关系的举动。

Beijing has a long history of good relations with Myanmar’s military regime: China was one of the few countries that backed the regime during its most repressive period, when Suu Kyi was held under house arrest. Yet, in the past four years, even former general President Thein Sein has turned away from China. As relations with the West improved, Myanmar suspended a major Chinese-built hydro-electric dam project at Myitsone on the Irawaddy river, and a Chinese-backed copper mine project -- to Beijing’s irritation.

中国政府长久以来与缅甸军政府维持着良好的关系，是少数几个即使在昂山素季被捕的黑暗镇压时期仍支持缅甸军队政权的国家之一。甚至在过去的四年中，缅甸前总统吴登盛也对中国表示了厌恶。令中国政府恼火不已的是，为表示向西方国家靠拢，缅甸暂停了由中国在伊洛瓦底江主建的密松水电站工程，以及一个有中国背景的铜矿工程。

Part of the motivation for these moves was public dissatisfaction at China's exploitation of natural resources in areas of Myanmar close to the Chinese border. Beijing has also alienated some in the country by its support for two ethnic rebel groups, the Kachin Independence Organization and the United Wa State Army, which recently refused to sign a ceasefire with the government.

缅甸政府采取这些举动的部分动机是公开反对中国对靠近中缅边境的自然资源的开发行为。中国政府也以支持反政府的克钦独立组织和佤邦联军来表示对缅甸政府的部分疏远。这两个武装势力最近拒绝与政府签订停火协议。

For Beijing even some aspects of the election itself have been sensitive: Sun Liping, a famous sociologist who supervised Chinese President Xi Jinping’s doctoral thesis, hailed Myanmar's democratic process on Chinese social media -- but his post was reportedly later blocked.

对于中国政府来说，缅甸选举活动的一些相关方面也很敏感：孙立平，着名社会学家，中国主席习近平的博士论文导师，在中国社交媒体上致敬了缅甸的民主进程，但是他的致敬文章贴出不久就被屏蔽了。

Yet if Beijing sees the election as sensitive, it’s certainly doing its best not to say so in public. Aside from Foreign Minister Wang Yi welcoming the smooth elections, official media have also taken a pragmatic approach. One commentator in the official Global Times acknowledged that “Voters are fed up with the junta,” while Ding Gang, an editor from China's party mouthpiece the People’s Daily, wrote that, “In a long term perspective the military’s overall control over politics and economy does no good to Myanmar’s development over time.”

确实，如果中国政府认为缅甸选举是敏感的，那么最好的做法就是不公开谈论。除外交部长王毅表示祝愿选举顺利之外，官方媒体也都表现出了一种务实的态度。《环球时报》的一位官方评论员承认“选民已经受够了军政府”。同时，中共舌喉《人民日报》的编辑丁刚撰文称“经过长时间的观察发现，军队对政治和经济的过分控制无益于缅甸的发展。”

Bi Shihong, an international relations specialist at Yunnan University, wrote in the Global Times: “Beijing is aware that Suu Kyi’s appeal far exceeds that of other political leaders in Myanmar,” and friendly ties with her will have a “positive effect” on the two countries’ relationship.

云南大学国家关系专家毕世鸿在《环球时报》撰文称：“中国政府意识到昂山素季的诉求原超过缅甸其他政治领袖，”与她建立友好关系会对中缅两国关系起有“正面影响”。

This even-handed approach may be due in part to the fact that Suu Kyi made a visit to Beijing in June, in which she met President Xi and stressed that “neighbors cannot be selected" and that “a friendly bilateral relationship [with China] is of utmost importance,” Bi noted. And he predicted that an NLD-led government would “establish closer ties with the West and avoid distancing itself from China.”

这种中立的态度可能与7月昂山素季访华有关。毕世鸿指出，在与习主席会面时，昂山素季强调“缅中两国是邻居，而邻居是不可选择的“以及”致力于两国友好关系发展至关重要”。他预测一个由NDL执政的政府会“与西方国家建立更紧密的关系，同时避免与中国走得太远。”

The Global Times agreed, saying that the “west is eager to set up Myanmar as role model for the vitality of western democracy,” but adding that the NLD appeared to be taking a pragmatic approach. The paper said in its editorial that no one expected Myanmar to tilt completely to the U.S., as this would be “a witless move,” which would undermine what it said were the benefits of China’s “amicable policies” to Myanmar.

《环球时报》赞同称“西方国家热衷于将缅甸塑造成一个榜样以体现西式民主的生命力”，并补充说NLD正在采取务实的政策。在该报的社论版中谈到，没有人希望缅甸完全向美国倾斜，这将会是“一个不智之举”，将破坏该报所谓的中国“友好睦邻政策”给缅甸带来的好处。

One reason for China’s enthusiasm may be the hope that a new government might be willing to allow a greater Chinese economic role. China is already the largest investor in Myanmar, and its largest trading partner -- with two-way trade worth $25 billion a year. But Chinese investment in Myanmar has slowed because of “the unstable policies of [Myanmarese] authorities,” according to Ding Gang. An increasing number of Chinese enterprises have "realized that an economy controlled by a military government bears high risks for investment,” he added.

中国如此热情的原因之一或许是希望一个新的政府，能够乐于给中国更为重要的经济地位。中国现在已经是缅甸最大的投资者和最大的贸易伙伴——每年双方的贸易额为250万美元。但是丁刚指出，中国在缅甸的投资已经由于“缅甸政局不稳”而放慢。他还指出越来越多的中国企业已经“认识到一个由军政府控制的经济体会带来很高的投资风险”。

The Global Times even suggested there might now be a chance of a resumption of major projects such as the Myitsone dam, saying there could be a “backswing” in relations. It said the NLD was more likely to be able to persuade the public to accept such projects than the current regime -- and it stressed that Suu Kyi “has never publicly spoken ill of these large projects.”

《环球时报》甚至建议说目前或许是重开一些重要项目的好时机，例如密松水电站，以此为两国关系背书。该报称NLD比之前的军政府更有能力说服公众接受这些项目，它还强调说，昂山素季“从未公开谈论这些大项目的弊端”。

China is also keen to encourage Myanmar to open its borders and become more involved with China’s New Silk Road Economic Belt development plan, which seeks greater investment in neighboring countries. One benefit for Beijing would be a new route to the Indian Ocean for its exports via the Irawaddy. So far the authorities have been reluctant to grant such access.

中国还热切鼓励缅甸开放边境，参与谋求更多邻国投资的中国新丝路经济带计划。中国从该计划中能够获得的好处之一是获得经由伊洛瓦底江通往印度洋的新出海路径。而目前的当权者并不情愿给中国这条出海路径。

However China is also clearly worried about the new government potentially being weak, and about divisions between the NLD and the military, which under the current constitution will still have significant influence in Myanmar. There are also concerns about the ongoing conflict between the government and a number of minority ethnic groups.

另一方面，中国已经开始担心新政府会由于NLD和军队的对立而趋于式微，因为在目前的宪法下，军队对缅甸仍将具有决定性的影响。而缅甸政府与一些少数民族团体的不断冲突也是中国关注的问题。

Fallout from these problems was highlighted by the arrival in southwest China’s Yunnan province of refugees from border areas of Myanmar earlier this year, following fighting in the region. Cross-border tension was also heightened after a Myanmar military bomb fell on the Chinese side. Some analysts have also suggested that it was China’s influence that prevented the Wa and Karen ethnic rebel groups from signing the ceasefire accord brokered by the Myanmar government last month.

这些问题带来的后果就是今年早些时候，由于地方战事而导致缅甸难民聚集在中国云南省与缅甸交界的地区建立难民营。边境局势由于之后缅甸军队的一枚炸弹落入中国境内而变得更为严峻。一些分析员认为是中国的影响阻止了上个月佤族和克伦族反抗团体签署由缅甸政府牵头的停火协议。

The New York Times reported that such a move might have been designed to give Beijing leverage over the new government. The Chinese foreign ministry has denied this. However, one Wa rebel officialrecently called for Beijing to play a part in peace negotiations with the Myanmar government -- in a reminder that the potential for tensions between the two sides remains.

《纽约时报》报道称这种举动是中国政府设计用来加强其对新政府的影响力而采取的。而中国外交部否认了此说法。但是最近一名佤族反抗势力官员呼吁中国政府介入其与缅甸政府的和平谈判，这一举动提示了双方潜在的紧张局势仍然存在。