特朗普政府对朝言论不断变化 [美国媒体]

The Trump Administration's Evolving Rhetoric on North Korea
From “fire and fury” to “all options are on the table

特朗普政府对朝言论不断变化
”从“强烈愤慨”到“将采取任何措施作为回应”



The White House’s response Tuesday to North Korea’s latest missile test was, in a way, measured.

某种程度上说，白宫对周二朝鲜进行弹道导弹测试的回应很慎重。

“The world has received North Korea’s latest message loud and clear: this regime has signaled its contempt for its neighbors, for all members of the United Nations, and for minimum standards of acceptable international behavior,” President Trump said in a statement.

“全世界都收到了朝鲜的最新信息：这个国家的所作所为表明了对其邻国，以及所有联合国成员国和国际行为准则的蔑视态度。”特朗普在一份声明中表示。

“Threatening and destabilizing actions only increase the North Korean regime’s isolation in the region and among all nations of the world.  All options are on the table.”

“威胁和破坏地区稳定的行为只会使朝鲜在地区和全球更加受到孤立。将保留采取任何措施作为回应的权利。”

That last line—“All options are on the table”—appears ominous with its implied threat of military force, but it actually represents a reiteration of longstanding U.S. policy. For Trump, in fact, it’s a more subdued tone on the crisis in East Asia, and it came via a White House statement rather than the medium Trump often uses for foreign-policy pronouncements:  Twitter.

最后一句——“将采取任何措施作为回应”暗示着将采取军事威胁措施，但其实只是在重复美国的对朝政策。对于特朗普来说，实际上这次事件只是一系列东亚危机上较和缓的一次危机。这次事件的声明也只是通过白宫发布而不是通过特朗普发布外交政策声时常用的媒体：推特。

Trump’s missives about North Korea can be classified into two broad categories: threats against the North for its actions and frustration at what he perceives to be China’s failure to pressure Pyongyang to change its behavior. Some of these are made on Twitter; others in public appearances. He has also specifically discussed Kim Jong Un, referring to the North Korean leader at various points in time as a “wack job” and a “smart cookie” whom he’d be honored to meet.

特朗普对朝鲜的公函可以被分为两大类：当他感觉中国没有成功对朝鲜施压以停止其导弹项目时，就会威胁朝鲜将采取军事手段。这些声明都发布在推特上；另一类发布在公共场合中。他也专门谈到了金正恩，提到朝鲜领导人在不同时间干的“二流工作”，很荣幸能见到这个“精明能干的人”。

Trump’s most recent threats against North Korea came this month after the UN Security Council unanimously voted to tighten international sanctions against Pyongyang. Shortly after that development, news reports said North Korea had succeeded in miniaturizing a nuclear warhead that could be fitted onto an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the U.S. 

当联合国安理会一致投票同意加强对朝鲜导弹项目的国际制裁时，特朗普对朝鲜做出了最新威胁。不久之后，新闻就宣布朝鲜成功将能攻击到美国本土的洲际弹道导弹小型化。

Trump then said “any more threats” by North Korea would be met with “fire and fury,” words he later said weren’t “tough enough,” prompting fears of a military response. He also tweeted the U.S. nuclear arsenal “is now far stronger and more powerful than ever before,” adding he hoped the U.S. would never have to use it. North Korea’s response: a detailed plan to fire an intermediate-range ballistic missile at Guam, the U.S. territory in the Pacific that is home to military bases.

特朗普之后说“朝鲜的任何威胁”都会导致美国的强烈愤慨，而不是他之后说的“够强悍”。他之后又发推特说美国的核武库“正处在有史以来在强大的时期”，他还强调希望美国不会使用核武器。朝鲜的回应是：一份详细的发射中程弹道导弹攻击关岛的计划。关岛是美国在太平洋的领土，且还是美军基地。

When the North did not follow through on that plan, Trump tweeted: “Kim Jong Un of North Korea made a very wise and well reasoned decision. The alternative would have been both catastrophic and unacceptable!”

但朝鲜没有按计划执行时，特朗普发推特：“金正恩做出了明智合理的决定。否则将会是无法接受的灾难性事件。

”Trump was noncommittal Tuesday when asked what he was going to do about the latest North Korean test:  “We'll see. We’ll see,” was all he said before traveling to Texas to inspect the damage caused by Hurricane Harvey. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he spoke to Trump for 40 minutes on the issue, saying the two countries were in “total agreement” that the UN Security Council must increase pressure on North Korea. For her part, Trump’s UN ambassador Nikki Haley declared that “something serious has to happen” following the latest missile test, but did not elaborate.

当特朗普周二被问道他会对朝鲜试射导弹作出什么回应，他态度不明。特朗普在赶往德克萨斯视察哈维飓风造成的损失时只说了“再说吧”，“再说吧”。日本首相安倍晋三就此事与特朗普会谈了40分钟，表示双方都同意联合国安理会必须提高对朝施压力度。特朗普政府的联合国代表Nikki Haley在导弹发射后声称“发生了很严重事情”，但没有详细说明。

“President Trump and Prime Minister Abe committed to increasing pressure on North Korea, and doing their utmost to convince the international community to do the same,” the White House said in a readout of the call between Trump and Abe, suggesting the U.S. was planning coordinated diplomatic action. But any such action against Pyongyang must include China, a permanent veto-wielding member of the Security Council, which is also North Korea’s main benefactor. Trump has during his presidency said Beijing is doing “nothing” on North Korea, cited increased trade between North Korea and China, and said China’s attempt to persuade Kim to change his behavior “has not worked out.” (China says its influence over Kim is limited, and points to reduced trade between the two countries.)

“特朗普总统和首相安倍都同意提高对朝施压力度，正竭尽全力说服国际社会采取相同的措施，”白宫在特朗普和安倍会谈后表示。白宫也声称将利用外交手段应对此事。但是任何制裁大浦洞导弹项目的方案都必须得到作为拥有否决权的联合国常任理事国中国的支持，但中国同时也是朝鲜的捐助者。特朗普在其任职期间表示，随着中朝贸易额不断增长，中国没有采取任何措施制裁朝鲜。中国试图劝说金正恩放弃导弹研制项目的尝试没有任何成果。（中国表示其对朝鲜的影响力有限，正在削减中朝贸易额）

Nor is Trump the only person in his administration whose rhetoric on North Korea has fluctuated. On July 5, Haley urged Russia and China to vote for tougher sanctions on North Korea, warning: “If you choose not to, we will go our own path.” On July 30, she said there was no point to an emergency Security Council session “if it produces nothing of consequence.” 

特朗普不是唯一一个在其任期期间对朝言论不断改变的总统。7月5日，哈雷呼吁俄罗斯和中国投票支持对朝鲜实施更严厉的制裁，警告道：“如果你不选择这么做，我们会自己制裁朝鲜。”7月30日，她又表示“如果没有达成任何成果”，召开安理会紧急会议也毫无意义。

The U.S. ultimately succeeded in persuading China and Russia to sign on to the sanctions—though it’s unclear what impact those sanctions will actually have on Pyongyang, which has found multiple ways to evade sanctions in the past, as I’ve reported here.) Rex Tillerson, Trump’s secretary of state, had declared the Obama-era policy of “strategic patience” with North Korea over, though the Trump administration’s stated policy of ‘maximum pressure and engagement’ resembles the Obama-era approach.

美国最终会成功劝说俄罗斯和中国同意签署制裁议案——尽管也不确定这些议案是否能影响大浦洞导弹项目。因为过去就已经发现有很多种方法可以逃避制裁。雷克斯 蒂勒森，特朗普的国务卿，已经公开宣布奥巴马时期对朝鲜的“战略忍耐”政策过时了。虽然特朗普政府的“施加最大压力和干涉”政策与奥巴马时代的政策很相似。

Tillerson, who has spent much of the past month dialing down Trump’s North Korea-related rhetoric, has also said the U.S. is willing to talk to North Korea and is not interested in regime change. On the other hand, in April when Pyongyang tested a medium-range ballistic missile, he said: “The United States has spoken enough about North Korea. We have no further comment.”

蒂勒森在过去一个月的大部分时间里都在淡化特朗普的对朝言论。他还表示美国愿意与朝鲜对话，对政权更迭不感兴趣。另一方面，今年4月，平壤试射中程弹道导弹时，他说:“美国已经对朝鲜说得够多了。”我们不会进一步做出评论。”

By Tuesday, that rhetoric, too, had shifted. In the morning, Tillerson said: “We’ll have more to say about it later.”

但周二，对朝言论又改变了。在早晨，蒂勒森说：“我们之后还会作出更多回应。”