quora：为什么中国不能攻击印度？ [美国媒体]

-------------译者：龙腾翻译总管-审核者：Sinnreich------------

Why can't China attack India?

为什么中国不能攻击印度？


-------------译者：hht288-审核者：Sinnreich------------

  Shivam Kumar Singh Indian by heart and soul.

印度，Shivam Kumar Singh 以心和灵魂。

upxed Jul 15

7月15日更新

There are many reasons why they can’t. let me tell you some:

他们为什么不能是有很多原因的。我就告诉你一些：

1. They can’t achieve Defence to Attack ratio of 1:3.

一、他们无法达到防御方和进攻方军力对比1：3。

Research says at least 1:3 ratio is needed for offensive side to decisively win a war. Can China achieve that ratio? Let’s check.

在研究称，进攻方要完全赢得一场战争，军力至少要是防御方的三倍。中国能达到这个比例吗？让我们看看。



We can clearly see that China is way behind the 1:3 ratio.

我们可以很清楚地看到中国还远达不到3倍于防御方军力这一比例。

2. They will have to fight a gruesome war far away from their core.

二、他们不得不远离其核心区域来应对一场非常严酷的战争

Distance between Shanghai and Doklam Plateau: 4700 km.

上海与洞朗高原之间距离：4700公里。

Distance between Beijing and Doklam plateau: 4200 km.

北京与洞朗高原之间距离：4200公里。

Distance between Delhi and Doklam plateau: 1600 km.

德里与洞朗高原之间距离：1600公里。

Distance between Gauhati and Doklam plateau: 600 km.

高哈蒂与洞朗高原之间距离：600公里。



Most of the major Chinese habitation is situated on it’s east cost. The point of conflict(Doklam Plateau) is way too far from china’s main cities than from India’s main cities. It will be very hard for China to send supplies and support which will seriously hamper their chances of winning the war.

大部分中国人都居住在中国东海岸。相比于到印度的主要城市的距离，冲突地点（洞朗高原）离中国主要城市真的太远。这将是使中国的物资供应和军力支援非常坚难，这些都是他们趁机赢得战争的严重障碍。

-------------译者：hht288-审核者：珂求一生------------

3. United Nations( Read U.S) will never allow this.

三、联合国（即美国）将绝不允许。

China and India are the engine of world’s economy. They are the shining spot in otherwise stagnant world economy. Global economy is growing at less than 2% while India and China are growing at around 7%. A war between China and India will collapse the world economy sending it to free-fall.

中国和印度都是世界经济的发动机。在暗淡萧条的世界经济中他们就是那闪亮的光芒。当全球经济增长率低于2%，印度和中国的增长却在7%左右。中国和印度之间爆发战争将使世界经济崩溃，跌落万丈深渊。

China and India both are Nuclear powers and even though they both have No first Use Policy(NFU) there is always a chance of war becoming nuclear.

中国和印度都是拥核国家，尽管他们都执行”不首先使用核武器政策“（NFU），但总是存有爆发核战争的可能性。

United Nation(read U.S) will try their best to stop both the countries.

联合国（即美国）将尽一切可能来阻止这两个国家。

4. It can result in a potential world war.

四、这将可能导致世界大战

If this war happens other countries like U.S Russia Pakistan Israel will join in which will result in world war 3. China is wise enough to understand this. They are on their peak on their way to become a superpower. A war can bring a lot of uncertainties China won’t take this risk.

如果二者之间爆发战争，其他国家借美国、俄罗斯、巴基斯坦、以色列都将加入进来，从而导致第三次世界大战。中国是有足够智慧理解到这一点的。他们正在登顶成为超级大国的路上。战争将带来诸多不确定性，中国将不会为此冒险。

These are the reasons why China can’t attack India.

这些就是中国为什么不会攻击印度的原因。

-------------译者：恭-审核者：珂求一生------------

Anonymous
upxed Jul 21
Himalaya is world's highest mountain range and 90% of Chinese arsenal is useless in that theater.

喜马拉雅山脉是世界上最高的山脉，90%的中国军火在那个地方是毫无用武之地的。



It needs 9:1 supremacy to dislodge an enemy in mountainous terrain.

它需要9:1的优势才能在山岭地区驱逐敌人。

Far from China having that sort of military supremacy it is practically impotent in mountain warfare with it having 3 acclimatized brigades with two Squadrons of J10/11 deployed in Tibet. One division in the Aksai chin front and one Squadron of J10/11 fighters. That’s it.

中国远没有这样的军事优势，中国在山地作战几乎是无能为力，他们在西藏部署了3个旅和2个中队的j10/11。在阿克赛钦前线有1个师和1个J10/11战斗机中队。就是这样。



India's deployment WRT to China: On the Northeast front India has 4 Corps of Mountain Infantry 8 Air bases 7 Advanced landing grounds mere 20 kms from the LAC. On the northern side one Mountain Corps one Infantry Corps 4 air bases and 5 Advanced landing grounds just for Chinese front.

印度对中国的部署:在东北前线，印度有4支山地步兵，8个空军基地，7个先进的着陆点，距离实际控制线仅20公里。在北侧有1个山地队，1个步兵队，4个空军基地和5个先进的着陆点，而且就在中国前面。

 -------------译者：恭-审核者：珂求一生------------

Mountain warfare is fought and won by infantry and you could not rush soldiers directly from plains as they would die of vomiting their guts if rushed in without acclimatizing. PLA is mostly composed of Hans who have lived in the plains for centuries. Acclimating is one thing to be war fighting fit in those heights genetics and evolution come into play.

山地作战都是用步兵进行战斗的，你不能直接从平原上直接运兵过来，因为如果不适应环境，他们将会死于呕吐。中国人民解放军主要是由几个世纪以来都在平原上生活的汉人组成的。水土不服是影响高海拔战争的因素之一，但是基因和进化也扮演了一定的作用。

We have Dogras Kumaoni Ladakhi Nagas and Gurkhas. Native of the mountains naturally acclimated to heights as a gift of nature.

我们有Kumaoni（？）、多格拉、拉达希、纳格和古尔克这些适应了高海拔的民族，所以高海拔作战不是问题。

The new light tank of China is a desperate measure from their part which is to be used defensively if India break through Himalaya and marches onto Lhasa.

如果印度突破喜马拉雅山并向拉萨行进，中国的新轻型坦克是他们孤注一掷的的手段，因为它们是用来防御的。
-------------译者：cyber power-审核者：珂求一生------------

There is one major Rail lix and 3 major roads from China into Tibet which would be taken out within first few hours of a conflict. It would cut Chinese armies deployed against India off their supplies while Indian Army supply lines are very short and local.
Eastern sector in Arunachal. No country for tanks or mechanized vehicles.

从中国进入西藏，有一条主要的铁路线和三条主要的公路，在冲突发生后的几个小时内这些（交通）就会被破坏。它将切断中国军队抵抗印度的供应链，而印度军队的补给线不仅在本地而且距离短。阿鲁纳恰尔邦是（印度）东部的扇形地区不是适合坦克或机械化车辆的乡村。

A somewhat old and rough map from Jane's. We have 1 brahmos regiment already deployed in Arunachal with 100 missiles targeting mainly supply depots and rail/road lixs into Tibet. Another regiment will be raised with Mountain Strike Corps. 3 more brahmos regiments with ~240-300 missiles target pakistan in our 3 strike corps.

简提供了一张有点过时的地图。我们在阿鲁纳恰尔邦已经部署一个布拉莫斯军团，100枚导弹瞄准了主要的补给点和连接西藏的铁路/公路线。另外一支军团将由山地军组成。，另有3个或更多攻击部队部署了240-300枚布拉莫斯导弹，这些部队瞄准是巴基斯坦。

Our target with Brahmos is simple we destroy the gas pipeline from the mainland that supplies fuel for vehicles/aircraft in tibet and we destroy the 2-3 main road and rail lixs that connect tibet with xinjiang and mainland china. This can be done quickly and easily and repeated several times even if repaired. Once these road/rail lixs are destroyed and fuel is gone it doesn't matter how many soldiers you have in tibet they will starve. No oilno ammono reinforcements. You can see the main road/rail lixs in the above map.

我们的布拉莫斯导弹瞄准目标并不复杂，就是摧毁为车辆/飞机提供燃料来自中国内地的天然气管道，加上摧毁连接西藏与新疆和中国内地的2-3条主要公路和铁路线。把这种破坏搞定简直就是快如闪电，小菜一碟，即便（路）被修复了，我们也能重复摧毁几次。一旦这些公路/铁路线路被摧毁了，燃料耗光了，不管你在西藏有多少兵力，没有了油料补充、没有弹药补充　、没有了（部队）增援，他们都将饿死。在上面的地图中你就能看到主要的公路/铁路线。

-------------译者：cyber power-审核者：珂求一生------------

On top of it China has not fought a shooting war since 1979 & best practice its conscxt army has got has been shooting at cardboard targets while thanks to Pakistan army and their jihadis every Indian soldier has battle experience.

此外，自1979年以来，中国还没有打过一场像样的战争，中国军队的最佳操练是把硬纸板靶子当作瞄准射击的目标，而亏得有了巴基斯坦军队和他们的圣战分子，每一个印度士兵才有战斗经验。

China has bad quality knockoff planes of which only few could be deployed on bases in Tibet and Chengdhu from where they could reach India and even they could not take off from Tibet with full load as rarefied air of Tibet reduces thrust of aircrafts. On top of it only J-11D in PLAAF has OBOG system while all frontline Indian planes have OBOG system thus reducing high altitude fighting capability of PLAAF even further.

中国有质量不靠谱的山寨版飞机，只有部署在西藏或者成都的基地才能飞到印度，而能够部署在那里的飞机屈指可数，即便如此，飞机也无法从西藏满载起飞，因为西藏的稀薄空气会减少飞机的推力。此外，在中国人民解放军空军中只有歼11-D才配备了机载供氧系统，而所有印度的前线飞机都有机载供氧系统，可见解放军空军的高海拔作战能力被进一步压低了。

-------------译者：LEEKIMKONG-审核者：hht288------------

An important point to note here is that in mountain warfare defenders have massive advantage. While China does not have military strength to defeat us in mountain warfare we also could not mount deep invasion into Tibet as logistic problem would be turned on its head. Our forces would come in range of PLAAF flying from airfields in mainland China (from where they could fly with full load)

一个很重要的点是，在山地战中，防卫的一方是拥有巨大的优势。尽管中国在山地战上，其军事力量尚不足以击败我们，但同样的，由于物流运输方面的问题难以解决，所以我们的军队也无法深入西藏的腹地。我们的部队将进入中国空军的打击范围，他们从中国内陆机场起飞（从那里他们可以满载起飞）
In Navy Pakistan is a bigger challenger of Indian Navy in Indian ocean than PLAN. IN could block Oil supplies of China from Middle East easily. Indian navy will choke Strait of Malacca China’s lifeline and China has to contend with India’s unsinkable aircraft carrier: the Andaman and Nicobar Islands located close to the choke point of Malacca Strait.

海军方面，相对于中国海军来说，在印度洋区域，巴基斯坦对印度海军来说是个更大的威胁。印度海军可以轻松地阻断中国从中东运输的石油供给。由于安达曼和尼科巴群岛位于靠近马六甲海峡的要塞点，因此印度海军扼杀着中国的重要交通线--马六甲海峡，以致于中国不得不与印度的永不沉没的航空母舰进行抗争。

-------------译者：LEEKIMKONG-审核者：hht288------------

The truth with China is that while it is a decent military power it is not as strong as people make it out to be and it depends on propaganda and intimidation to achieve its obxtive. For Ex: Its DF-21 ASBM which it has tested on an stationary target but never gathered enough courage to test on a moving target. The reason for this is that it knows that an ASBM could not hit a moving target due to some shortcoming that originate from basic Physics. Similarly in mountainous regions it is not strong enough to aggress against India.

就拿中国来说，虽然他的军事力量有一定实力，但也并没有像人们所说的那么强大，而且他们主要是靠宣传和恫吓的手段来实现目的。举个例子：中国的东风-21中程弹道导弹一直只对固定的目标进行实验，却没有足够的胆量对移动中的目标进行试验。其原因就是，中国了解中程弹道导弹受到基本的物理条件限制，无法打击移动目标。同样的道理，中国军力还不足以在山区对印度发起攻击。

This answer is a little reality check for CCP fanboys. The actual situation on the ground rather than paper strength.

这个回复是让中国共产党的小粉丝们认清现实，战争是讲求地上的真实实力，而不是纸上谈兵，

Terrain issue was there even in 1962. How did China win ?

1962年时也存在着这样的地形问题，中国是怎么赢的？

-------------译者：LEEKIMKONG-审核者：hht288------------

Nehru was at helm. We would have lost J&K to Pakistan had Pakistan attacked India when he was PM. Had we not lost to China in 1962 we would have lost to Pakistan in 1965.

尼赫鲁掌权，他当总统时如果巴基斯坦进攻印度，我们就会输给巴基斯坦而失去查谟克什米尔。要是我们在1962年没有输给中国，也会在1965年输给巴基斯坦。

Nehru was follower of school of thought which believed that armies are not good for anything except march pasts and had disbanded major portions of WWII army and had retooled armament factories to produce coffee percolators.

尼赫鲁是学派思想的追随者，认为军队除了用来检阅也没有其他的好处。于是解散了二战时军队中的大部分，重组了军工厂去生产咖啡滤壶。
 
Krishna Menon had politicized army and army leadership in 1962 was comparable to that of state police. Menon was a communist and like his idol Stalin fascinated with purges and interfering in promotions. It was 1962 defeat which stopped Indian Armed forces slide to mediocrity.

克里希南·梅农掌握了政治化军队，其在1962年对军队的领导相比起来就像是国家警察。梅农是一个共党分子，像他的偶像斯大林一样，沉迷于搞清洗和推行干涉主义。这就是1962失败的原因，并使印度武装力量滑向平庸。

 -------------译者：lanrlt-审核者：珂求一生------------

When Nehru decided to send army to front after getting humiliated in parliament for Chinese incursions it was done in form of establishing small outposts separated from each other in name of "forward policy". China outnumbered IA 8:1 in Himalayan theater and had much better weapons and experience. 
There is Henderson-Brooks report on this issue. Only one volume is public. Henderson Brooks report lists the guilty men of 1962

中国入侵后，尼赫鲁在议会受到侮辱，决定派遣部队前往前线，但是只是建造了小型哨所，这和"前进政策"的名称相违背，在喜马拉雅山战线中国在数量上拥有8：1的优势，武器更优良，作战经验更丰富
亨德森布鲁克报告提及了这个问题，只公开了一卷，亨德森布鲁克报告列举了1962年战争的罪人。

 -------------译者：lanrlt-审核者：珂求一生------------

Mostaque Ahmed Student at Alpha Beta Science College Nagaon (2015-present)
upxed Aug 6
China can attack India and take some of its major land probably by cutting chicken's neck to take NorthEast but why it is not doing so?

中国不但能够进攻印度，而且还有通过切断鸡脖子占领东北而获得大量土地的可能性，但为什么不这样做呢?

Lets analyse the scenarios

让我们来分析一下

Attacking India would mean MAD (mutually assured destruction) for both countries.There are many reason which is preventing China from direct military invasion these are

攻击印度对两个国家意味着相互毁灭，中国不直接军事入侵印度有很多原因

Strategy of India isn't what it had been during 1962.
The diplomatic relationship of India with other countries isn't what it had been during 1962.
China can't afford a war with a country which has so much of man power reserved troops advanced missiles interceptors and in a bold word a Nuclear State with second strike capability.

印度现在的战略已经和1962年不一样了。

中国承受不起和一个在人口，内陆部队，先进导弹，战机上数量庞大，拥有二次核打击能力的国家开战

-------------译者：LEEKIMKONG-审核者：hht288------------

China knows that a war with India would collapse its economy and business monopoly might once again go to US .It can't see its destruction of its cities too.

中国知道，与印度的战争将会令其经济崩溃，垄断跨国公司又将跑回美国。他们也不愿看到其大城市遭受破坏。

China has many rivalry countries. JapanVietnamTaiwan(ROC)South KoreaTibet all has been a strong enemy of China and will openly support India apart from it there will be no Allies of China (except Pakistan North korea) in case of war with India.

中国有太多敌对国家了。日本、越南、台湾（中华民国）、韩国、西藏，所有都是中国的强大敌人，一旦与印度发生战争，他们将公开支持印度，对中国而言就没有盟友了（除了巴基斯坦、朝鲜）

US will jump into the war due to its own interests to gain reginal dominancewhich might be a blow for China.

基于自身利益考虑，为获取地区统治优势，美国将介入战争，这对中国将是个重大打击。

Russia will remain silent and will avoid any involvement I amn't sure when India helped Russiaso Russia might support China but will never do openly. Basically it will sell weapons to both the countries.

俄罗斯将保持沉默，并将避免卷入其中，我不能确信印度什么时候帮过俄罗斯，所以俄罗斯可能会支持中国，但不会公开地做。总的来说，它将向两个国家都出售武器。

 -------------译者：恭-审核者：珂求一生------------

China will forever loose its control over south China seaDo you think it can stand still after direct confronting with Indian nuclear submarines and Aircraft carrier that are just made to create hell on earth?well I didn't mention about Japan's helicopter carrier and US's aircraft carriers.

中国将永远失去对南中国海的控制，你认为在与印度的核潜艇和航空母舰直接对峙之后，中国还能坚持下去吗？我还没有提日本的直升机航母和美国的航空母舰。

So I think India may loose more in war with Pakistan than with China because there will be more Allies ready to help India in a war with china to smash it.

所以，我认为印度在与巴基斯坦的战争中可能会比与中国的战争中失去更多，因为与中国的战争中，我们会有更多的盟友准备帮助印度粉碎中国。

Please note- I amn't related to any war analysis department.I am just a boy who is going to appear my 12th finalso don't down vote my answer if you don't like or any inaccuracies.Instead comment if you feel something is missing so that other readers could enjoy readings

请注意，我和战争分析部门都没有任何关系。我只是一个将要考第12次期末考试的男生，所以如果你不喜欢或者你认为不准确的话，就不要给我的答案投票。相反，如果你觉得有什么东西遗漏了的话，你可以随意评论，这样可以让其他的读者可以享受这次阅读

-------------译者：恭-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Hari Haran
If this is the critical observation of a 12 th STD boyI hesitate to call you a boymanyou deser...
Zhang Cheng
Zhang Cheng studied at China
Answered Jul 11
No that’s ridiculous. Even Beijing elite is not so stupid like that

不那太荒唐了。就连北京的精英也不会这么蠢。

Rather India should be treated as an important and respected partner between two countries. China receives a lot from India such as Buddhism its spreading system of governance tolerance and the rich of cultural exchanges; and now also we get their technologies. On the other side India also gets benefited: they get Chinese investments their economy grows thanked for China’s supports and the benefits of being invested from China such as Huawei to metro system; or in the past we helped enrich the relationship of two ancient civilizations

相反，印度是值得中国尊敬的重要伙伴。中国曾从印度得到过很多东西，比如佛教、统治体系、宽容和丰富的文化交流;现在，我们也得到了他们的技术。从另一方面来说，印度也会从中受益的:他们得到了中国的投资，他们的经济增长得到了中国的支持，比如华为的投资以及地铁系统建设等等;或者在过去我们帮助过增强了两种古代文明之间的关系。

A war between India and China will benefit none. Why should it be? Can Pakistan really help China? I don’t think so. Can Nepal? They will rather stand neutrality. Myanmar? They have been at odd recently with both China and India over military conducts and rebels in Shan and Kachin regions. Sri Lanka is too far too remote maybe useless.

印度和中国之间的战争是不会带来任何好处的。为什么呢?巴基斯坦真的能帮中国吗?我可不这么认为。尼泊尔可以吗?他们宁愿保持中立。缅甸可以吗?最近，他们与中国和印度在掸邦和克钦地区的军事行动和反政府武装发生了奇怪的争执。斯里兰卡太遥远，太偏远，可能没用处。

Rather a good cooperation between China and India is far more than a planned war for nothing

中国和印度之间的良好合作比得上一场有计划但没好处的战争。