观点：默克尔必须下台 [美国媒体]

2018年7月6日 
4:47 

Opinion 
Why Merkel Must Go 
By Bret Stephens 
Opinion Columnist 
July 5, 2018 

观点：默克尔必须下台



Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany speaking in Brussels last week.CreditGeert Vanden Wijngaert/Associated Press 
HAMBURG, Germany — For many years, those of us who are critical admirers of the European Union have warned that it was on a bad path. 

前言：多年以来，我们这些欧盟的极端拥护者一直被警告——欧盟已经误上歧途了 

Europe’s immigration and refugee policies could be astonishingly generous, but its integration and assimilation efforts were generally desultory or reactive. European leaders have long talked a good game about the importance of “sustainable development,” but what they mainly sustained were decades of low growth and high unemployment. Grandiose declarations of Europe’s independence on the world stage corresponded with growing strategic vulnerability to Russia and the Middle East and deepening military dependence on Washington. The European Commission, conceived as an agent of economic liberalization, became a byword for regulatory overreach and technocratic micromanagement. 

欧洲的移民和难民政策的慷慨令人惊讶，但其融合和努力同化的结果却是跑了鸭子摔破盘； 
欧洲领导人长期以来一直在侃侃而谈“ 可持续发展 ” 的重要性，但他们主要能保证的是几十年的低增长和高失业率； 
在世界舞台上关于欧洲独立自主的宏伟宣言，对俄罗斯和中东日益增长的战略脆弱性，以及加深对华盛顿（美国首都）的军事依赖相对应； 
欧洲委员会本是经济自由化的代理人，最后却成为监管过度，官僚技术微观调控（打官腔玩官印）的代名词； 

And there was persistent disdain for democracy. In 2005 voters in France and the Netherlands decisively rejected a proposed Constitution for Europe. Undeterred, European leaders repackaged the Constitution in the form of the Lisbon Treaty. In 2008, Irish voters rejected the treaty. Still undeterred, European leaders finagled a revote. The Irish agreed the following year. 

民主建设持续被不屑一顾——2005年，法国和荷兰的选民果断地拒绝了拟定的欧洲宪法，欧洲领导人没有被吓倒，他们以里斯本条约的形式重新包装了宪法。到了2008年，爱尔兰选民拒绝了该条约。欧洲领导人仍然没有受到影响，他们重申了一项改革，爱尔兰人在第二年同意了。 

All of this stirred popular resentments to which mandarins in Brussels and the political class in Berlin, Paris, London and other capitals were either blind or dismissive. Someday, a historian may take a close look at their complacency. With a nod to a previous era of blindness, the book could be titled “The Sleepwalkers.” 

所有这些都引起了人们的普遍反感，布鲁塞尔（比利时首都，欧盟总部）的满大人官僚，和柏林，巴黎，伦敦和其他首都的政治阶层要么是瞎的，要么弃之如敝屣。终有一天，历史学家可能会仔细研究他们的自满情绪。为了对前一个失明的时代致敬，而这本书的标题可能叫做“梦游者”。 

Then came the debt crunch. And the refugee crisis. And the terrorist massacre at the Bataclan theater. And Brexit. 

然后是债务危机、难民危机，在Bataclan剧院的恐怖主义大屠杀，退欧风波。 

Now Europe’s crisis has finally reached Germany, even as the objective state of affairs remains remarkably placid. Growth is sluggish, but unemployment is at a record low. Refugees are no longer arriving in droves, and the ones who are here are finding jobs. In May, Interior Minister Horst Seehofer — the same Seehofer who lately threatened to bring down the government — presented the latest crime statistics. Among the highlights: “Steepest decline in crime in 25 years”; “20 percent fewer burglaries in Germany”; “dramatic decrease in youth-related violence.” 

而现在欧洲的危机终于到达了德国，尽管客观上仍然非常平静——增长缓慢，但失业率创历史新低。 
难民不再成群结队，而在这里的人正在寻找工作。今年5月，内政部长霍斯特·西霍弗（Horst Seehofer） - 最近威胁要推翻政府的Seehofer--介绍了最新的犯罪统计数据，其中的亮点是：“25年来犯罪率下降幅度最大”; “德国盗窃案减少了20％”; “与青年有关的暴力事件急剧减少。” 

But Germany has been infected with the temper of the times. The proximate cause is a bitter dispute over asylum laws between Seehofer, who leads Bavaria’s conservative Christian Social Union, and Chancellor Angela Merkel of the Christian Democratic Union, which is the C.S.U.’s more centrist sister party outside Bavaria 

但德国已经感染了时代的脾气——最直接的原因是，在领导巴伐利亚州保守派基督教社会联盟的Seehofer和基督教民主联盟的总理默克尔之间就庇护法发生了激烈争论，这可是科罗拉多州立大学在巴伐利亚州以外的更为中立的姊妹派。 

That dispute was at least temporarily resolved this week when Merkel agreed to establish “transit centers” along Germany’s borders for so-called secondary migrants, who have already received asylum elsewhere in the E.U. but are seeking to enter Germany. That will most likely require setting up border controls and checkpoints, meaning an end to the borderless Continent that is the most visible expression of European unity. 

本周，当默克尔同意在德国境内为所谓的二等移民（难民）建立“转运中心”时，这一争议至少暂时得到解决，这些难民本已经在欧盟其他地方获得庇护，但他们正在寻求进入德国。这很可能需要建立边境控制和检查站，这意味着原本无边界大陆的终结的最明显表现 

The deeper cause of the crisis, however, is that the C.S.U., which has dominated Bavarian politics for decades, is threatened by the growing popularity of Alternative for Germany, or AfD, the bigoted nativist party that is now the country’s third largest. That’s in part because the C.D.U. has dragged its Bavarian sister too far to the left, creating an opportunity for the AfD among traditional conservative voters. 

然而，这场危机的深层原因在于，几十年来一直主导巴伐利亚政策的科罗拉多州立大学受到德国替代品（或称自贸区）的日益普及的威胁，后者现在是该国第三大的本土主义政党。 
这部分是因为基民盟将巴伐利亚姐妹拖到了左派，为传统保守派选民中的AfD创造了机会。 

But mostly it’s because Merkel created the conditions that gave the enemies of the European ideal their opening. She refused to cap the number of asylum seekers Germany would take and then pleaded with other European countries to take them. That almost certainly gave Brexiteers the political imagery they needed to carry the vote a year later. The AfD was a minor Euroskeptic party before the refugee crisis gave it a rallying cry. The xenophobes of Austria’s Freedom Party, Italy’s Northern League and Sweden’s Democrats have all profited politically from Merkel’s decision. 

但主要是因为默克尔创造了条件，让以欧洲为目标的敌人成为他们的决口。 
她拒绝限制采取的寻求庇护者（难民）人数，或请求其他欧洲国家接受他们，脱欧者一年后进行投票所需的政治形象暴露无遗（英国见到这副丑态会觉得脱欧是正确的） 
在难民危机发出口号之前，AfD是一个小型的欧洲怀疑派对。奥地利的自由党，意大利北方联盟和瑞典的民主党人的仇外心理都从默克尔的决定中获得了政治利益。 

Generosity is a virtue, but unlimited generosity is a fast route to bankruptcy. Humanitarianism is commendable, but not when you’re demanding that others share the burdens and expense. A very liberal immigration policy is wise, but helter-skelter migration isn’t. Knowing how to set broad but clear limits is one of the essentials of conservative governance. Merkel’s failure is that she ceased to be conservative. 

慷慨是一种美德，但无限的慷慨是破产的快速途径。人道主义是值得称赞的，但是当你要求其他人分担负担和费用时，这种做法并非如此。一个非常自由的移民政策是合理的，但匆匆移民不是。 
了解如何设定广泛但明确的限制是保守治理的基本要素之一，默克尔的失败是她不再懂保守。 

Admirers still speak of Merkel as if she is Europe’s last lion, the only leader with the vision and capacity to save the E.U. There is much that is admirable about the chancellor, but as things now stand she is likelier to be remembered as the E.U.’s unwitting destroyer. The longer she’s in office, the more the forces of reaction will gain strength. And isn’t 13 years in office more than enough? 

仰慕者谈到默克尔，好像她仍然是欧洲最后一位狮子，是唯一一位有远见和能力拯救欧盟的领导人。对于财政大臣来说，她有很多令人钦佩的事情，但现在看来，她更容易被人们记住，只因为她是欧盟里的无心搞破坏者。她任职的时间越长，这样的反响就越强。难道13年的任期还不够吗？ 

There is still time for the E.U. to be saved. Europe needs a real security policy, backed by credible military power and less dependence on Russian energy. It needs to regulate migration strictly outside its borders so that it can remain open within them. It needs robust economic growth and much lower rates of unemployment, not paeans to the virtues of sustainability and work-life balance. And it needs institutions in Brussels that aren’t mere regulatory busybodies trying to punish member states for being economically competitive. 

欧盟仍有时间得救，欧洲需要一个真正的安全政策，以可靠的军事力量为后盾，减少对俄罗斯能源的依赖。它需要严格规范移民境外的迁移，以便在其内部保持开放。它需要强劲的经济增长和低得多的失业率，而不是可持续性和工作与生活平衡的优点。 
欧盟需要布鲁塞尔的机构，这些机构不仅仅是只会埋头监管的机构，更要学会为了经济竞争力而去惩罚成员国。 

What’s the alternative? A passage from Norman Davies’s magisterial history of Europe suggests the darker possibilities: 
“Inter-war politics were dominated by the recurrent spectacle of democracies falling prey to dictatorship.” He continued: “It cannot be attributed to any simple cause, save the inability of Western Powers to defend the regimes which they had inspired. The dictators came in all shapes and sizes — communists, fascists, radicals and reactionaries, left-wing authoritarians (like Pilsudski), right-wing militarists (like Franco), monarchs, anti-monarchists, even a cleric like Father Tiso in Slovakia. The only thing they shared was the conviction that Western democracy was not for them.” 
The stakes are too high for a muddler like Merkel to stick around. 

我们有什么选择？诺曼戴维斯的欧洲权威历史中的一段话暗示了更黑暗的可能性： 
“反对派政治主导着民主国家反复出现的独裁统治。除非西方国家无法捍卫他们所激发的政权，否则这不能归咎于任何简单的原因。独裁者有各种形状和大小 - 共产主义者，法西斯主义者，激进派和反动派，左翼专制主义者（如Pilsudski），右翼军国主义者（如佛朗哥），君主，反君主主义者，甚至像斯洛伐克的父亲Tiso这样的神职人员。他们唯一分享的是——西方民主不适合他们的信念。” 
这对于像默克尔这样的搞屎棍来说，赌注太高了。