中国会在30年内像西方一样享誉全球吗？ [美国媒体]

Will China become as prestigious as the western great powers in the next 30 years?

中国会在30年内像西方一样享誉全球吗？





Paul Denlinger   台湾和香港地区都居住过;擅长中文读写
I am not sure what you exactly mean by “prestigious”.

我不确定你说的“享誉全球”是什么意思。

China is now the world’s No. 2 economy, and is becoming more influential. Under President Trump and his “America First” policy, the US is withdrawing from international agreements, especially climate accords, while China is committed to a green environment.

中国现在已是世界第二大经济体，影响力也越发巨大。在特朗普和他的“美国优先”政策下，美国正在从各大国际条约，尤其气候协议中撤出。而中国正致力于创建一个环境友好型社会。

As the US sinks, China rises, so President Trump is helping China’s ascent, whether he realizes it or not.

美国衰落，中国崛起。无论特朗普有没有意识到他都在帮助中国不断崛起。

Raj Mishra 投资者
There is no doubt that China is a big world power both militarily and economically (both aspects of hard power).

毫无疑问中国在军事和经济（都是硬实力）都是世界强国。

However, whether it would be considered great or prestigious would depend upon soft power more than hard power. Examples —

然而，是否伟大或享誉全球主要由软实力而不是硬实力决定。例如——

Walking the talk : “with great power comes great responsibility”

言出必行：能力越大责任越大

Socio-political openness : Degree of free speech/ media/ internet/ independence of judiciary/ transparency in decision making etc. for citizens as well as immigrants, would effect how China as a big power would be perceived.

社会政治氛围开放：言论自由度、媒体、网络、司法独立、决策透明度以及移民程度都会影响中国的国际社会认同度。

Attractive destination for influx of human capital : when UK became a superpower in 19th century people from all over the world would go to UK to seek higher education. Similarly with US in 20th century. Would China be as attractive destination and open to influx of human capital from all over the world ? Usually low 'socio-political openness' has a limiting impact on influx of human capital.

对人才的吸引力度：英国在19世纪成为世界霸主时，来自世界各国的人都到英国寻求更高水平的教育。20世纪的美国也发生了类似的事情。中国会成为吸引人才的热门国家吗？会向全球人才开放吗？一般情况下，有限的“社会开放度”吸引人力资本的作用很有限。

Technological leadership : usually superpower status goes with leadership in technological advancements. Its usually the influx of high quality human capital which helps achieve this (as was the case for UK, US)

科技领导力：通常超级大国也引领者技术潮流。它往往引进高素质人才实现这一点（英国，美国都是如此）。

Cosmopolitan culture : ability to assimilate cultures of immigrants, while export it's own culture and arts.

时尚文化：拥有消化移民文化同时出口自身文化和艺术的能力。

Income levels : despite GDP at $11 trillion (vs. $18 trillion for US), per capita income in China is around $10,000 (vs. $40000 for US) due to large population in China. It's quite possible that China for a long time remains a middle-income big power. Which would mean the State/Govt would feel the superpower status but not the countrymen.

收入水平：虽然中国GDP达到了11万亿美元（美国GDP为18万亿美元），由于中国人口庞大，人均收入大约只有1万美元（美国人均4万美元）。中国很可能长期保持中等收入大国的地位。这也许会导致国家/政府觉得自己是超级大国但国民却没有这种感觉。

Inclusive growth : whether other countries are able to share the economic prosperity with China, also whether they have peaceful coexistence in its neighborhood.

包容性增长：其他国家是否能够分享中国经济的繁荣仍不确定。中国能否与在邻居和平共处也不确定。

Use of Diplomacy vs. Military : what extent China gets involved in international affairs, and whether it helps resolve international disputes through hard power (military) or soft power (diplomacy)

外交手段和军事手段运用的选择：硬实力（军力）和软实力（外交）哪种手段能更迅速提升中国参与国际事务的程度？哪种能国际社会帮助解决国际争端？

Respect/adherence to international laws & obligations as a mature big power.
All these aspects would influence whether China is considered ‘great/prestigious' big power in future or not.

是否尊重并遵循国际法规条例也是成熟大国的试金石。
所有上述因素都会影响中国将来是否“伟大/声名远扬”。

Currently, it does appear weak on some of these.

当前中国在某些方面还很不足。

Is Ling 仓储运输管理员
If you have understood fully the principles of rise and fall of nations. Well every country would have its peak and trough in its history.

如果你完全了解国家兴衰的原由，就知道每个国家的历史都有高峰和低谷。

The world is always looking a beacon for it to rely upon and look forward to for directions. With Trump, US will no longer be the beacon the world is looking for as Light source and relied upon for directions. Trump failure in US ratification of TPP has demonstrated that US can no longer be relied upon for major global decisions. His inability to bring forward another alternate healthcare policy to replace Obama-care has showed in his domestic failing as well.

世界各国总在寻找一个灯塔供其依靠并引领其发展。特朗普成为美国总统后，美国不再是世界渴求的光源和指引方向的灯塔。特朗普不批准TPP的失败表明美国不再是全球决策的可靠来源。特朗普无法推动能取代奥巴马医改的医保法案通过国会审批，这也显示了他在内政方面的失败。

With Europe having its own internal problems with Euro and Greek, Spain, Italy having problems with its debt crisis and Britain Brexit debacle and Japan Abenomics failings. Who would be in better position to lead the world than China.

欧洲的欧元存在内部问题，希腊，西班牙和意大利也面临着债务危机。英国脱欧将给英国带来毁灭，日本的安倍经济学也无力回天。除了中国，谁更适合带领世界走出危机走向发展？

With the global leadership vacuum left open by US. The world is looking for an alternate leadership ‘beacon of light’. China has just took the bulls by the horn by taking initiative to fill the leadership vacuum left open by the former. The willingness to help invest in country infrastructure building including the OBOR and various global initiative such as “Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)” has make China looks like a creditable alternative to the US role previously.

随着美国退出国际社会留下了全球领导力真空。世界正在寻找一个替代“灯塔”。中国已经接过权力的号角，正在积极采取措施填补前任留下的权力真空。一系列帮助他国投资基础设施的协议，包括一路一带和各种包括“亚投行”在内的全球投资倡议已经使中国成为了看似可信的美国替代者。

With China political and economical might, it is just a matter of time for China to fill in to be the great power once held by United States. The question is just ‘When’, ‘Does it need 30 years to reach this status of power?”

随着中国政治与经济不断发展，中国超越美国成为世界霸主指日可待。问题只是“这一切何时会发生？”，“还需要30年才能获得这种地位吗？”

Ryan Wells,  zhongwencentral.com的创立者
This is relative to what you mean by prestigious, as has already been remarked about by my prestigious peers below.

这取决于你如何定义名望，以下是一些我尊敬的同行说的话。

I am assuming you are referring to prestigious as in the type of world power that the U.S. is in the sense that everyone knows about her, respects her (for better or worse) wants to visit her and feeds off her guidance, this one for better or worse as well.

我估计你把名望想成了美国那样的世界强权。每个人都要了解他，尊重他（不论对错），访问他，也不论对错都要遵循他的指导。

Essentially, let’s assume you are asking if China will become the world’s leader, both morally and economically. I believe so, and I believe we are seeing the beginning of it.

让我从根本上做个假设，你想问的是中国是否会成为世界思想和经济领袖。我相信这一幕会实现，我也相信我们正在见证这一幕的实现。

All civilizations reach a peak, after which they have a gradual decline as the politics at the top become too complicated and dumber yet more aggressive people vie for power. You see the same pattern in publicly held companies where the founder’s family is no longer involved.

所有文明都会在达到顶峰后由于政治过度复杂和争权夺利渐渐走向衰落。你也可以在不再受创始家族掌握的家族公司中看到这一幕。

Positions of power like this tend to attract the Anti-Asberger syndrome (i.e. overly aggressive, not very smart and extremely reaction-oriented) personality. This is because this personality is a reactionist and cannot actually create anything of their own, rather manipulate already existing systems to find their way to the top. It’s a vicious and bloody battle full of corruption and incompetence at the highest level. For proof, please just go look at the U.S. government right now.

处于衰落期的大国往往具有反埃斯博格综合征（换言之，拥有过度进攻性，迟钝，易过激）的人格。这种人格往往很保守，无法创造新的价值，更倾向于依靠现有制度保持自己地位。这是一场最高层次的血腥堕落战争，充满腐败与无能。要证据？看看现在的美国政府就行了。

The people of these nations/organizations remain fixed to the idea that they are still the best, and will resort to extreme and indeed extremely stupid measures to maintain their superiority. This is futile, because the problem is that the organization is too divided by politics and power struggles, which is the real problem here.

这些国家或组织的人民仍坚信他们是最好的，会采取极端甚至非常愚蠢的手段维持其优越感。一切都是徒劳的，问题就在于过度的政治分裂和权利斗争。

Anyways, I digressed a little bit. What I’m getting to is: yes, absolutely. Human behavior is very easy to predict, and we have thousands of years of recorded history to show us what rises and falls of civilizations look like. China is on the rise.

我似乎有点离题了。我的意思是：没错，中国当然会声名远播。人类行为很容易预测，我们也有数千年的历史记录，记载着文明的兴衰沉浮。中国正在崛起。

The question remains though: will China learn from their predecessors and remain united? Or will they fall by the wayside to another rising star when their time has come?

但仍有问题：中国能吸取前辈的经验教训并一直保持统一吗？或者在他们的时代将要来临时，会不会又有另一颗冉冉升起的新星？

Bevin Chu  中美关系资深评论员
Will China become as prestigious as the western great powers in the next 30 years? No. China will definitely not become prestigious in the same sense that the “western great powers” became prestigious.

中国会在30年内像西方一样享誉全球吗？不，中国绝对不会成为“西方大国”意义上声名鹊起的国家。

Former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright summed up the US view of “great power prestige”:
“It is the threat of the use of force… that is… behind [our] diplomacy. But if we have to use force, it is because we are America; we are the indispensable nation. We stand tall and we see further than other countries into the future, and we see the danger here to all of us.”

前美国国务卿马德琳.阿尔布赖特总结了美国“大国权威”的观点：
“使用武力会威胁到我们的外交战略。但如果我们不得不使用武力，只因为我们是美国人；我们是不可或缺的国家。我们高高在上，能看到比其他国家更远的未来，也能看清前方的威胁。”

The US considers itself justified in imposing its will on other nations by force because it “stands tall and sees further into the future”, and is therefore “indispensable”, while other nations are “dispensable”.

美国认为将自己的意愿强加于他国是正当的，因为美国“站得高看得远”，因此“不可或缺”，而其他国家“可有可无”。

The US view is “My way, or the highway”, as in “Highway of Death”.
China holds a dramatically different view of the world, and of China’s place in it. During PRC President Xi Jinping’s first address to the UN General Assembly, he said:
‘As an ancient Chinese adage goes, “The greatest ideal is to create a world truly shared by all.”

美国的观点是“追随我否则分道扬镳”，就像“不归之路”。
中国拥有完全不同的世界观，并自我践行。中国主席第一次在联合国大会上发言时，他说：“正如中国一句古话所说的那样，’我们最大的理想是创建一个真正共享的世界’。”

All countries are equals... all countries’ right to independently choose social systems and development paths should be upheld… all countries’ endeavors to promote economic and social development and improve their people’s lives should be respected.

所有国家都是平等的，所有国家‘都有权力独立选择社会制度并坚持自己发展道路。所有国家都应努力促进经济与社会发展，提高人民生活水平。这一切都应受到尊重。‘

We should be committed to multilateralism and reject unilateralism. We should adopt a new vision of seeking win-win outcomes for all, and reject the outdated mindset that one’s gain means the other’s loss or that the winner shall take all.’

我们应该致力于发展多边主义，反对单边主义。我们应该树立一种合作共赢的新视角，摒弃那种胜者拥有一切的过时观点。

The Chinese view of the world is embodied in very different kind of highway, the Belt and Road Initiative, a new “Silk Road” linking anyone who wishes to join in a mutually beneficial, continent-wide economic belt.

中国对世界的看法体现在各种高速公路和一路一带倡议中。这项倡议是条新的“丝绸之路”，将所有希望互利互惠的沿大陆经济带人民都连接了起来。

The Chinese approach is to build roads, not bomb them.
So the answer to the question is a definite no. China will not become “prestigious” in the same sense that “western great powers” such as the US became “prestigious”. Not in 30 years. Not ever.

中国达成这一切的手段是靠修路而不是轰炸。
所以我的回答是中国绝对不会·成为像美国那样“声名鹊起”的国家。30内不会，甚至永远不会。

Joseph Boyle
China will have achieved comparable income per person and continued to progress rapidly in cultural maturity, though some things take longer than 30 years.

中国已经实现了可观的人均收入增长，文化产业也在迅速成熟，虽然有些东西发展所需时间远超过30年。

The earlier-developed East Asian countries are still the closest model for what China will be like after more experience with modernization. Chinese will not replace English as world lingua Franca.

亚洲先发国家依旧是预测中国现代化发展成果的最好模板。中国也不会用世界语取代英语。
​
Bandera Benawara 在拉拉古纳大学学习法律
China is today the regional power in Asia. China can become more prestigious globally than the West because they have not committed the crimes the West has committed. For example, soon there won’t be a country USA hasnot invaded or attacked as the list is getting long. The West way of doing business has been traditionally with gunboat “diplomacy” and the Chinese way of doing business is different. That’s why China is very popular in Africa. Needless to say that China has been investing billions in assisting African countries with infrastructure, education, etc.

中国已经是亚洲地区强权，也因为他们没有重复西方犯过的错误而声名远播。例如，将来美国仍会入侵越来越多国家，这一名单会越来越长。西方的贸易模式一直是“舰炮外交”，而中国的贸易模式完全不同。这就是中国为什么能席卷非洲而美国做不到。更不用说中国正在非洲国家投资数十亿美元帮助其修建基础设施，发展教育。

The West has had plenty of time to invest billions to help the African countries but their policy has been to have African colonies and to steal their raw materials (including sending millions of Africans to work in their colonial plantations in the Americas for free). Thanks to Africa’s wealth and free African manpower in their colonies in the Americas, the West become very wealthy as they had total control of most of the world to do as they pleased (stealing).

西方一直有充足时间投资并帮助非洲国家走出贫穷，但他们的政策一直是殖民非洲并偷走非洲原材料（包括贩卖数百万的非洲人到美国种植园里做奴隶）。由于有了非洲丰富的自然资源和美国种植园里的免费黑奴劳动力，西方变得非常富有以至于能随心所欲地控制大多数国家（偷东西）。

Today the world has changed and the people of the West don’t only have to compete against powerful countries like China but their quality of life is going to the dogs. That’s why life expectancy in the West is actually going down. If USA is “prestigious” today (?), it is because of the number of clever foreigners working in America helping USA from sinking . If you walk through some parts of USA these days you will think that you are in a third world country. China’s infrastructure is light years ahead of USA’s. The idea that USA is going to contain the Chinese makes me laugh. In short, in 30 years time China will be stronger than USA because USA has been in decline now for sometime. If you want to know what dynamism is, go and live in a Chinese city (not USA). In short, start learning Chinese Mandarin (language) now.

现在世界格局变了，西方人不仅需要与像中国那样的强国竞争，他们的生活水平还在持续下降。这就是为什么西方的人均预期寿命在缩短。为什么美国“声名远扬”？因为有很多聪明的外国人在美工作，帮助美国免于衰落。如果你现在去美国一些地方走走，会觉得似乎走在第三世界国家。中国基础设施水平正以飞速赶超美国。美国能控制中国的想法让我发笑。简短来说，30年后中国将远比美国强大，因为美国早就处在衰退中了。如果你想知道什么是活力，就去中国城市（而不是美国）里居住吧。是时候学中文了。

Haiyan Chen, Beijing
No, because China is fundamentally different from the western powers.
We will not interfere in other countries, nor will we actively interfere in international affairs outside East Asia, which means that it is difficult for you to see China's influence in foreign countries as strong as that of the United states.
What's more, China has far more poverty than other countries, which have led China to focus mainly on its own economic development over the next thirty years, not on international influence.

不，因为中国与西方大国存在根本不同。
我们不干涉其他国家，也不远干涉东亚外的国际事务。这意味着你很难看到中国在海外国家有像美国那样的影响力。
此外，过去30年中国远比他国贫穷，使得中国一直专注于自身经济发展而不是国际事务。

Gabriel Chan, 海外华侨
The rise of the West was a story of colonial empires and exploitation of the rest of the world. Hopefully, China in the next 30 years will lead the colonization of space and exploitation of space resources.

西方的崛起建立在殖民扩张和对世界的残酷剥削之上。希望中国能在未来30年内引领太空资源的开发利用。

Anonymous
China has been a great power at the time european nations were mere city-states or tribes. It is now the second largest economy, the worlds largest army and quickly catching up with the west. Its assuming international roles as of now while the leading power is neglecting its roles.
As China was able to achieve that status in 40 years, just imagine how it could be in the next 30 years.

当欧洲国家仍处于城邦或部落时代时，中国早已是世界大国。现在中国已经成为了第二大经济体，拥有规模最庞大的军队并在各方面飞速追赶西方。中国一直在努力扮演自身应承担的国际角色，其他大国却忽视了这一点。
中国将在未来40年内再次恢复世界领导地位，让我们肆意畅想未来30年会发生什么大事吧。

Ronald Marks, 中国的治理很多方面成本高昂，西方也是如此。
China today is an over-stressed, artificial, contorted and disfigured society that understands the price of everything and the value of nothing. Prestige will come when China authentically accepts universal values, including the need to make contribution to the world, instead of just shoplifting crude materialism from the West.

现在的中国是一个压力巨大、虚伪、扭曲、丑陋的社会，以金钱衡量一切。只有中国接受普世价值，对世界做出真正贡献而不是从西方偷走粗糙的唯物主义才会获得声望。