世界经济：中国在世界市场上的竞争何以越来越激烈【经济学人】 [美国媒体]

The global economy: How China is battling ever more intensely in world markets

世界经济：中国在世界市场上的竞争何以越来越激烈

But does it play fair?

但中国公平竞争吗？



IF DONALD TRUMP had slapped punitive tariffs on all Chinese exports to America, as he promised, he would have started a trade war. Fortunately, the president hesitated, partly because he wants China’s help in thwarting North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. But that is not the end of the story. Tensions over China’s industrial might now threaten the architecture of the global economy. America’s trade representative this week called China an “unprecedented” threat that cannot be tamed by existing trade rules. The European Union, worried by a spate of Chinese acquisitions, is drafting stricter rules on foreign investment. And, all the while, China’s strategy for modernising its economy is adding further strain.

如果川普兑现承诺，向中国的所有出口商品施加惩罚性关税，将会引发贸易战争。幸好总统犹豫不决，部分原因是希望中国帮忙遏制朝鲜的核野心。但事情并未了结，中国的工业力量引发的紧张局势可能威胁到全球经济结构。本周美国贸易代表称中国是“前所未有”的威胁，现有的贸易规则无法加以约束。欧盟担心中国进行大量并购，正在拟定更严格的外资管理条例。与此同时，中国的经济现代化战略加剧了紧张局势。

At the heart of these tensions is one simple, overwhelming fact: firms around the world face ever more intense competition from their Chinese rivals. China is not the first country to industrialise, but none has ever made the leap so rapidly and on such a monumental scale. Little more than a decade ago Chinese boom towns churned out zips, socks and cigarette lighters. Today the country is at the global frontier of new technology in everything from mobile payments to driverless cars.

这类矛盾的核心是一个无法阻挡的简单事实：全球企业正面临中国对手愈发激烈的竞争。中国不是第一个工业化国家，却是有史以来发展速度最快、幅度最大的国家。十多年前，中国的繁荣城镇生产拉链、袜子、打火机。如今从手机支付到无人驾驶汽车，中国走在世界新技术的前列。

Even as China’s achievements inspire awe, there is growing concern that the world will be dominated by an economy that does not play fair. Businesses feel threatened. Governments that have seen Brexit and the election of Mr Trump, worry about the effects of job losses and shrinking technological leadership. Yet if the outcome is to be good, they must all think clearly about the real nature of China’s challenge.

即使中国的成就令人敬畏，人们越来越担心世界将被一个不公平竞争的国家所主导，企业感受到威胁。目睹了英国脱欧公投和川普当选总统，各国政府担心失业和技术领先地位下降造成的影响。但要想有好的结果，就要清醒地看待中国挑战的实质。

Go, in three dimensions

三管齐下

Undoubtedly, China has form. It kept its currency cheap for years, boosting exporters; it finances its state-owned giants with cheap credit; and its cyber-spies steal secrets. Yet depictions of corporate China as just an undemocratic, state-run monster, thieving and cheating to get ahead, are crude and out of date. Home-grown innovation is flourishing (see Briefing). The innovators are mainly private, not the many heads of a single creature called China Inc. To separate hype from reality, think of Chinese competition as having three dimensions: illegal, intense and unfair. Each needs a different response.

毫无疑问，中国有独特模式。通过常年维持廉价货币来刺激出口；向国有巨头企业提供低息贷款；网络间谍盗取机密。但如果只将企业中国视为不民主、由国家主导、依靠盗窃和作弊获得成功的怪物，未免显得肤浅、不合时宜。中国的本土创新蓬勃发展，创新主体多为私企，而不是所谓“中国公司”这种单一主体的许多主管。为了区分炒作与现实，可从三个方面看待中国竞争：非法、激烈、不公平，分别需要不同的应对策略。

First, consider illegality. The best example is the blatant theft of intellectual property that makes for the most sensational headlines, such as the charges laid in 2014 against five Chinese military officers for hacking into American nuclear, solar and metals firms. The good news is such crimes are declining. An agreement with America in 2015 seemingly led to a marked drop in Chinese hacks of foreign companies and, as Chinese firms produce more of value, they are themselves demanding better intellectual-property protection at home.

首先来看非法竞争。最好的例子是公然盗取知识产权，成为最轰动的头条新闻。2014年，五名中国军官被指控侵入美国多家核能、太阳能、金属企业。好消息是这种犯罪正在减少，2015年中美签订协议后，中国侵入外国公司的次数似乎明显减少。另外，随着中国企业产品价值的提高，本身就要求国家更好的保护知识产权。

The second dimension—intense but legal competition—is far more important. Chinese firms have proven that they can make good products for less. Consumer prices for televisions, adjusted for quality, fell by more than 90% in the 15 years after China joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO). China’s share of global exports has risen to 14%, the highest any country has reached since America in 1968. That may fall as China loses its grip on low-value industries such as textiles. But it is gaining a new reputation in high tech. If data are the new oil, China’s tech industry has vast reserves in the information generated by the hundreds of millions of its people online—unprotected by privacy rules. Whether you make cars in Germany, semiconductors in America or robots in Japan, the chances are that in future some of your fiercest rivals will be Chinese.

其次是激烈的合法竞争，这点更加重要。中国企业证明其产品可以物美价廉。中国加入世贸组织15年来，随质量调整的电视机消费价格下降了90%以上。中国占全球出口的份额已达14%，是1968年美国以来份额最高的国家。随着中国对纺织等低价值产业失去主导地位，这一比例可能会下降。但中国在高科技领域正赢得了新的声誉。如果将数据比作新石油，中国科技产业拥有数亿网民提供的海量数据储备，他们得不到隐私法规的保护。无论你在德国制造汽车，在美国制造半导体，还是在日本制造机器人，未来某些最激烈的竞争对手可能是中国企业。

Last, and hardest to deal with, is unfair competition: sharp practice that breaks no global rules. The government demands that firms give away technology as the cost of admission to China’s vast market (see article). Foreign firms have been targeted in the biggest of China’s anti-monopoly cases. The government restricts access to lucrative sectors, while financing assaults on those same industries abroad. Such behaviour is dangerous precisely because today’s rules offer no redress.

最后，不公平竞争最为棘手：不违反国际规则的不正当手段。政府要求企业交出技术，作为进入中国庞大市场的代价。外企已成为中国最大规模反垄断案的目标，政府限制外企进入高利润行业，却资助中国企业进军国外的相同行业。这种行为是危险的，正是因为现有法规不加以纠正。

Don’t get angry. Get even

莫要动怒，讨回公道

Sorting Chinese competition into these categories helps calibrate the response. Blatant illegality is the most straightforward. Governments must prosecute and seek redress, whether through the courts or the WTO. Firms can better protect themselves against cyber-thieves—from China and elsewhere.

将中国的竞争划分为三类有助于调整应对策略。公然非法竞争是最明显的，政府必须通过法庭或世贸组织进行起诉或纠正，企业可以更好的防范来自中国和其他国家的网络盗窃。

Though it is politically hard, the best response to intense competition is to welcome it. Consumers will gain from lower costs and faster innovation. Misguided attempts to hold back the tide would not only lose those potential gains but might also blow up the world trading system, with catastrophic results. Rather than try to stop the loss of jobs, governments should provide retraining and a decent safety net. Both companies and governments need to spend more on education and research. Six years ago Barack Obama said America faced a new “Sputnik moment” in China’s rise. Since then not much extra has been devoted to research, training and infrastructure.

虽然激烈竞争带来政治困境，但最佳策略是欣然接受。成本下降和创新加速会使消费者受益，逆流而动的错误做法不仅会失去潜在利益，也可能破坏世界贸易体系，造成灾难性后果。政府要做的不是避免失业，而是提供再培训和良好的安全网，企业和政府需要对教育和科研加大投入。六年前，奥巴马说中国的崛起使美国面临新的“卫星时刻”，此后美国在科研、培训、基建方面并未增加太多投入。

The hardest category is competition that is unfair, but not illegal. One approach is to coax China into behaving better by acting collectively. America, Europe and big Asian countries could jointly publish information about economic harm from China’s policies—as they did by sharing details about overcapacity in the steel industry, nudging China into cutting its excesses. They should demand reciprocity, requiring China to give foreign companies the same access that its own firms enjoy in their markets. Governments need to review their policies for screening investments from China so that they can block genuine threats to national security (though only those). And they should also require that investors with state backing report this in full, and punish those hiding their true identity.

合法的不公平竞争最为棘手。一种策略是采取集体行动促使中国更守规矩。美国、欧洲、亚洲大国可共同发布信息，表明中国政策损害经济结构，正如之前各国分享中国钢铁产能过剩的细节信息，促使中国削减产能。各国应提出互惠要求，给予外企与本土企业相同的市场准入待遇。各国需要重新审视针对中国投资的审查政策，避免国家安全遭受真正的威胁。各国还应要求受国家支持的投资方知无不言，对隐瞒真实身份的加以处罚。

Much of the responsibility for putting this right falls on China. It may ask why it should hold itself back. After all, 19th-century Germany and America grew rich behind subsidies and tariff walls; Britain and Japan were bullies. Yet, having done so well out of the global commercial ecosystem, China should recognise that it has become one of its custodians. Abuse it—illegally or by overburdening it—and it will break.

中国在纠正行为方面负有很大责任，它可能会问凭什么克制自己，毕竟19世纪德国、美国靠补贴和关税壁垒致富；英国、日本靠的是横行霸道。但中国受益于全球商业生态系统，应认识到本身是监管者的一员。胡作非为或负担过重都将使系统遭受破坏。