为什么中国发展得如此快速？ [美国媒体]

Why has China developed so fast?

为什么中国发展得如此快速？



Robert Maxwell
China's growth is not about something as ridiculous as adopting some vague "meritocracy" over "Western Democracy."
Rather, China's growth is basically the classic "export-led industrialization" story. The sheer scale in population makes it an outlier, but its actual growth rates are fairly normal for developing nations in East Asia.
For instance, in the period of South Korea's expansion from 1960-1990, with a GDP of $3.89 billion in 1960 and $263 billion in 1990, South Korea averaged 15% growth per year. China, between the major growth period of 1980 to 2010 - beginning with a GDP of $189 billion in 1980 and ending with a GDP of 5.95 trillion in 2010 - likewise averaged around 15% growth. Japan, starting from 1960 with a GDP of $44 billion and ending in 1990 with a GDP of 3.1 trillion, likewise, a 15% average increase in GDP over that period.
On the other hand, the United States, over the period of 1960-1990 - which includes some of the most prosperous in its history - started in 1960 with a GDP of $520 billion and ended in 1990 with $5.75 trillion - averaging out to only around 8% growth. Great Britain, starting in 1960 with a GDP of $72 billion, ended in 1990 with $1.02 trillion - a 9% average.
Now, of course, this isn't a perfect measure, but it illustrates a number of things: one, China's growth is relatively in line with the performance of other East Asian nations focusing on export-oriented industrialization. Two, nations in the middle of this sort of industrialization tend to have high growth rates. No one would contend that the United States and Great Britain were in some sort economic depression for those whole thirty years - though there were times like Stagflation for the US. So what gives?
Basically, when countries industrialize, it's not uncommon for them to begin a period of rapid growth and economic expansion. Compared with already industrialized countries, this growth seems fast, when it may in fact be rather in line with what we've seen in other nations under similar conditions. Already industrialized, developed nations don't grow as fast not because they're weaker, but because the time for massive growth has already passed. You can see this in businesses, as well - successful startups tend to grow at huge rates, while large, established companies often grow at slower rates. That does not mean that Startup Co. is better run or better administered or develops a better product than Apple, simply that it has room to grow at a faster pace.
So what is China, Japan, Korea, et al. doing?
First, they're benefiting from lower tariffs and trade barriers from developed nations. Simply put, lower trade barriers makes your products cheaper and makes people more likely to buy them. It also means foreign businesses will find it economical to establish plants in your country and so pump your economy with foreign investment. This strategy would not at all work, say, during the Great Depression, when countries increased trade barriers. If the trade barriers are too high, the strategy is dead on arrival. In that sense, these countries have benefited from either, a. preferential access to American (and Western) markets, or b. from low trade barriers in general.
Second, they conduct monetary policy that's amenable to export - generally, the weakening of their currency to further drive down the relative cost of their goods. You can see this with China's past efforts to keep the yuan at a certain depreciated level. The general rule is that the stronger your currency is, the easier it is to import; the weaker your currency is, the easier it is to export.
Third, they all enjoyed huge government support. Japan's cooperation with her large corporations is well known and has been an integral part of her political system (the so-called 'iron triangle' and the Japanese keiretsu). Korea has largely followed the same tack. China's political sector has largely aimed at gradual, conservative liberalization of trade and government support for business including but not limited to making loans available, being willing to inject cash into businesses, and supporting so-called "national champions."
There are many issues with this, though.
First, it can be difficult to make the switch from a mainly export based economy focused on international trade to a modern service economy with a robust domestic market. This is your 'exit strategy' - at some point, the rising standards of living and wages among your workers will mean that it will no longer be sufficiently cheap for foreign businesses to overlook what may be idiosyncrasies in your economy or difficulties in regulation, and so they'll go elsewhere. If you haven't developed that, your economy collapses. China is experiencing this as foreign corporations pull out, foreign direct investment is fleeing China, and countries such as Thailand and Vietnam are becoming more attractive investment targets.
Second, and this is starting to rear its head again, there are issues with credit and real estate. Japanese real estate bubbled in the 80s and combined with credit expansion (and other issues), Japan ended up facing a massive recession and a so-called "Lost Decade" of economic growth. China is facing many of the same issues - people have been commenting on the sheer size of the Chinese real estate bubble and the toxicity of the loans circulating in the economy for quite some time. Korea faced a similar issue, but was able to negotiate that trouble fairly well.
All in all, China's growth is fairly on par with the export-oriented industrialization strategy of other East Asian nations. The important thing is how she's going to handle the extremely difficult bumps ahead. If China can navigate those difficulties well and come out on the other side more robust, her size means that she can truly become a powerhouse. If she can't, she may face a "Lost Decade" - or perhaps something even more severe.

中国的经济的增长与某些可笑而模糊的“西方民主”的“精英政治”没有什么关系。
相反，中国的经济增长基本上是一个典型的“出口导向型工业化”的故事。它人口的绝对规模使得它异于常人，但它的实际增长率在东亚发展中国家中是相当正常的。

比如说，在韩国经济扩张的1960-1990年间，从1960的国内生产总值为38亿9000万美元，到1990的2630亿美元，韩国的年平均增长率为15%。中国在1980-2010这个主要的经济增长时期，国内生产总值从1980年的1890亿美元开始，到2010年5兆9500亿结束，同样，平均增长率为15%左右。日本从1960年国内生产总值为440亿美元开始，到1990年底GDP为3兆1000亿，同样，同期国内生产总值平均增长15%。

另一方面，美国在1960-1990年期间——其中包括了一些国家在历史上最繁荣的时期——1960年初开始，国内生产总值为5200亿美元，到1990年底以5兆7500亿美元结束——平均增长率仅为8%左右。1960年初，大不列颠国内生产总值为720亿美元，1990年底以1兆200亿美元结束，平均增长率为9%。

当然，这不是一个完美的衡量标准，但它说明了一些事情：一，中国的经济增长是与其他以出口导向型工业化的东亚国家增长曲线是相似的。二是这种处于工业化中期的国家的经济增长率都很高。没有人会争辩说，美国和大不列颠在整个三十年里都陷入了某种程度的经济萧条中——比如说美国有一段经济滞胀的时期。所以为什么会这样呢？

基本上，当一个国家（进行）工业化，他们就开始一个快速增长和经济扩张的时期这种事情并不罕见。与已经完成工业化的国家相比，这种增长似乎很快，实际上可能与我们在其他国家在类似情况下看到的情况相当。已经工业化的发达国家增长得不快，并不是因为它们较弱，而是因为它大规模增长的时间已经过去了。你可以在企业中看到这一点——成功的初创公司往往以巨大的速度增长，而大型的老牌公司往往以较低的速度增长。这并不意味着初创公司比苹果有着更好的经营或管理，或者开发了一个比苹果更好的产品，这仅仅是因为它有更快发展的空间罢了。

所以，中国，日本，韩国等国做了什么？

首先，他们受益于发达国家的低关税和贸易壁垒。简单地说，降低贸易壁垒会使你的产品更便宜，更容易让人们喜欢去购买。这也意味着外国企业会发现在你们国家建立工厂是一种很经济实惠的行为，于是用外国投资来刺激你们的经济。在大萧条时期，当各国互相增加贸易壁垒时，这种策略根本不会起作用。如果贸易壁垒太高，这个战略就会完全失效。从这个意义上说，这些国家从两方面收益，a，可以优先进入美国（西方）市场，或者b，面对者普遍较低的贸易壁垒。

第二，他们实行适宜出口的货币政策，一般来说，货币贬值会进一步压低商品的相对成本。你可以从中国过去努力保持人民币处于一定的贬值水平中看到这一点。一般的规则是，你的货币越强，进口就越容易；你的货币越弱，出口就越容易。

第三，他们都得到了政府的大力支持。日本与她的大公司的合作是众所周知的，而且一直是她政治制度的一个组成部分（所谓的“铁三角”和日本企业集团）。韩国大体上也遵循同样的方针。中国的政治部门主要针对贸易进行渐进的、保守的自由化，以及政府对商业的支持，包括但不限于提供贷款，愿意为企业注入现金，并支持所谓的“全国冠军”。

不过，这方面有很多问题。

第一，很难从以国际贸易出口为主的经济转变为拥有强大国内市场的现代服务经济。这是你的“退出策略”——在某种程度上，工人的生活水平和工资水平的提高意味着它对那些忽视你在经济上的特质或监管上有困难的外国企业来说不再足够便宜，所以他们会去别的地方。如果你的发展还不够完善，那么你的经济就会崩溃。中国正在经历这样的外国企业撤出，外国直接投资正在逃离中国，如泰国和越南等国家成为了更具吸引力的投资目的地。

第二，信贷和房地产的问题再次开始抬头。日本80年代的房地产泡沫结合信贷扩张（和其他问题）使日本最终面临大规模经济衰退和一个经济中所谓的“失去的十年”。中国面临着许多和日本相同的问题——人们一直在评论中国房地产泡沫的巨大规模和在经济中长期存在的贷款的毒性。韩国也曾面临类似的问题，但它能够很好地解决了这个问题。

总之，中国的经济增长相当于其他东亚国家的出口导向型工业化战略。重要的是她将如何应对前方的艰难坎坷。如果中国能驾驭这些困难并且变得更加强大，以她的体型意味着她能成为真正的强者。如果她不能，那么她可能会面临“失去的十年”——或者更严重的事情。

Sree Venkateswarlu Vemulapati
It was a well planned & well executed exercise , unleashed by Deng Xiaoping in late 70s . Being a single party Govt , did help the country
Massive increase in agricultural productivity
Restrictions on Population growth ( one child policy)
Export led Growth
High rate of savings funding massive infrastructure development
Free Market - By showcasing the massive market , Chinese could get best Technologies , high level of FDI
Massive Modernisation of Industrial sector to meet Export competitiveness
Special Economic Zones to ensure that Export led industries get the cluster advantage of shared skill pool , best infrastructure , financial incentives like duty waiver etc
Big role for Local Provinces /Municipalities to develop infrastructure around their area
Massive Institutions , with expertise in wide range of areas to help the country to absorb the technologies imported , better them and initiate long term measures for self sufficiency
Competitive Inflation management
Competitive Exchange rate management
Ensuring skill development of its work force
Govt protecting the interests of the industries to ensure that their capacities are fully utilised and their export competitiveness maintained
Banks providing timely and low cost capital , even providing low cost long term loans to maintain Exports
Attracting the best talent educated/trained in Europe/ US back to China to participate in Nation’s development
In summary , a near perfect Eco-system was developed for which the credit goes to all sections - Govt , Entrepreneurs , Banks , Public etc . It is also a fact that personal as well as process efficiency is perhaps the best in China ( partly due to cultural factors ???? )

这是一次由邓小平在70年代后期推出的精心策划运动。作为一个单一政党政府，确实有助于这个国家。
1.农业生产力大幅度提高
2.对人口增长的限制（计划生育政策）
3.出口带动增长
4.高储蓄率资助大规模基础设施发展
5.自由市场-通过展示庞大的市场，中国可以获得技术最好的、高水平的外国直接投资。

6.工业部门的大规模现代化以满足出口竞争力
7.经济特区确保出口导向型产业获得共享技能库、最佳基础设施、如关税减免等财务奖励的集群优势。
8.地方省/市在其周边地区发展基础设施的巨大作用
9.拥有领域广泛的专门知识的庞大的机构，帮助国家吸收和改善进口的技术，并采取长期的自给自足措施。
10.竞争性通胀管理

11.竞争性汇率管理
12.确保工作人员技能的发展
13.政府保护各行业的利益，确保其能力得到充分利用，并保持其出口竞争力。
14.银行提供及时和低成本的资本，甚至提供低成本的长期贷款来维持出口。
15.吸引在欧洲/美国受到教育/培训的最好的人才的回到中国参加国家的发展。

总之，他们开发了一个将信贷用于所有部门——政府、企业家、银行、公众等的近乎完美的生态系统。事实上，个人认为中国的过程的效率也许最好的。（部分原因是文化因素造成的？？？？）

Ajay Verma
Only 2 reasons:
Government policies
Determination of people
The progress made by China in following areas is mesmerizing:
1.Successful adoption of Economic liberalization in 1990s from being a Pure Communist Country. USSR faced too many challenges in the process.
2.Sports & Games: Results in International Competitions e.g. Olympics tell this.
3.Technological Progress in
Infrastructure
Warfare Equipments
Fighter Planes
Passenger Planes
Bullet Trains
Mass manufacturing of Consumer Products
Very High Productivity in Manufacturing
But then China must also restrain itself in its expansion/ bullying techniques.

只有2个原因：
政府的政策
意志坚定的人民

中国在以下方面取得的进步是迷人的：
1.在20世纪末从一个纯粹的gczy国家成功地实施了经济的自由化。苏联在这个过程中面临着太多的挑战。
2.运动与比赛：在国际比赛中取得的成绩，例如奥运会。
3.在以下方面的技术进步：
基础设施
战争装备
战斗机
客机
子弹列车
消费品的大规模制造
制造业的高生产率

但是中国也必须限制自己的扩张/欺凌方面的手段。

Kev Pugh
Hard working people, productive population (which makes labor cost affordable and allows local businesses to grow fast), government willing to invest on infrastructures (such as the shipping port), open minded towards absorbing foreign cultures, banning foreign websites to let local websites grow, weak copyright for foreign products (fake products also contribute to China’s economy).

努力工作的人民，大量的人口（这使得他们负担得起劳动力成本，并允许当地企业快速增长），政府愿意投资于基础设施（如海运港口），开放的胸襟对吸收外来文化，禁止外国网站让当地的网站成长，国外产品的弱版权（山寨产品也有助于中国经济）。

Pritesh Sonune
If we compare CHINESE AND INDIAN ECONOMY, we will come to know the answer to this question.
1)CHINA is a communist country with no concept of private property. 
This means that the GDP in china is distributed more equally than INDIA, which also means that if CHINA grows more people in the country would be benefited or it would be more effective. 
2)On the other hand large inequality exists in INDIA as almost 90%  of wealth is owned by 2-3% of population which means if INDIA grows less people (particularly the poor) will be benefited or we can say growth is not equitable among all sections of society. 
3)Also China has a very large section of manufacturing  sector contributing and engaging in GDP contribution as compared to INDIA which has large population dependent on risky agriculture.

如果我们比较中印经济，我们就会知道这个问题的答案。
1.中国是一个没有私有观念的gczy国家。这意味着，中国的GDP比印度更加公平地分配，这也意味着，随着中国的增长在全国将会有更多的人受益，也会更有效。
2.另一方面，印度存在着巨大的不平等现象，因为将近90%的财富是由2%至3%的人口所拥有的，这意味着随着印度经济的增长，只有很少的人（特别是穷人）受益，或者我们可以说，社会各阶层之间的增长是不公平的。

Quorai Sajoke
Traditional values and Communist government.
Traditional part:
1.The Chinese is a people who value education extremely high. Young generations’ education is the top family concern. Parents would sacrifice their own free time to activities that help improve their children’s school performance. When Chinese parents have school children, they basically have lost most of their free time.
2.Family-oriented collective mindset. When Chinese workers get their salary, they would try to save as much money as possible for the family use, rather than buy what they long for. Personal desire is second to the family demands, to children’s future, at least before they can support themselves. So China has a high saving rate, and as a result, an astronomically big deposit bonanza. All this play an essential part in economy growth, when it turns into loans.
3.Chinese indifference to political activities. The Chinese have far stronger interest in making money than participating in political campaigns. This phenomenon and attitude can be seen in any Chinese community, at home and abroad. Even if there is oppression targeting Chinese group, as long as it is not too suffocating to make a living, they would work hard with their hands and brains, rather than go to street.
Communist part:
1.Communist theory is so far the most advanced theory in explaining human society, compared to any religion based beliefs. Do you believe that all men are created equal? No. This is only a religious narcotic. From the day we were born, we have to adapt to the ubiquitous inequality. Communists only believe we should strive to create a more egalitarian society by our hands, but not wait for some god to give the equal rights. From when society was divided into classes? It is when inequality became reality. People with more possessions created some imagined gods(they had time to meditate, while the poor had to work like dogs to feed themselves.), and in god’s name, to tell the poor people they were not blessed and favoured by those gods, and then maintain that inequal social status. CCP know land is the key to the inequality, so they reshuffled Chinese society by implementing a thorough land reform. Every individual in countryside now has their own land, but only nominally, because all land belongs to the country. However, peasants still can rent it in a way like owning it. It is complicated. As for not owning the land, for example, no land can be sold to others; you can only rent it to others. The benifits of this policy are multiple. Land will not be accumulated by small number of people. And the government can rent the land or take back the land by giving a large lump of compensation money and usually at the same time, offering those countrymen township Hukou. After that all infrastructure can be carried out smoothly, while people can also get long term economic benefits.
2.CCP are all strict atheists and think science is the first productivity of a society. But how to achieve it? Through education. When China was dirty poor, the government encouraged elite education, and for the majority poor illiterate adults, there were free classes to attend, and the policy for eliminating illiteracy was sort of forceful in some regions. After those adults had worked for a whole day, they were required to attend some evening school. A university student, till 1980s, could get a monthly allowance, which was higher than a peasant could earn through hard work. As China now is not that poor, people still only need to pay several thousand RMB a semester, and all young people are encouraged to have a higher academic pursuit. Education is heavily funded by the government, so Chinese young people can enjoy a cheap university Education, but of an increasing quality. This education system has provide huge talents to the economic development. In my opinion, education should be a nonprofit cause, but not a business. It is a shame to a country if its young people can't afford a high education for financial reasons.
3.Liberation of women. When CCP army was a weak localized power, they spread the ideas that women and men should be equally treated. At that time, in the richest US, women were striving for women’s suffrage. So in China, women enjoy more rights than in the west; forget those strange westerner-made rankings. Thanks to the liberation of women, China now has a huge women work force, with a proportion higher than most countries. Their participation in work, with their creativity and power, is another significant reason why China is developing so fast. By working with men equally, they have developed an independent mentality and self-reliant mindset. However, after the reform and opening-up policy was implemented, many women began unconsciously to obxtify themselves in following west trend. They prefer to stay at home, get money from husbands and enjoy being a housewife, rather than go on their career. Fortunately, they are only a small group of people and this is not like to be a mainstream trend. Also, some may say Chinese women have less political rights than their counterparts in other countries, because less women in China are involved in politics than the west, which is true, but they may have neglected an interesting fact that China, in the last 30 odd years, has developed a largest group of self-made female billionaires. This number in China is higher than the rest of the world combined. Chinese women seemingly have less interest in politics but more motivation in business, and China provides a great environment for them.
4.Another cliche reason is that the CCP government organically integrates macroeconomic plans with free market economy. China looks not like typical socialist society, with capitalistic features than most capitalist countries. China encourages entrepreneurship, competition and indeed provides all sorts of preferential policies to help incubate startups. But in social welfare, medical care, education, financial and other important sectors, such as railway system, governments and state-owned companies play the essential role to guarantee a more equal society. Also there are reasons like hardworking and highly disciplined work forces, stable and safe social environments, etc., but all of them more or less related to traditions or CCP governance.

因为传统价值观与gczy政府。

传统的一部分：
1.中国的人都非常重视教育。年轻一代的教育是家庭最关心的问题。父母会把自己的闲暇时间用于帮助孩子提高学业成绩。当中国父母有孩子的时候，他们基本上已经失去了大部分的空闲时间。
2.顾家的观念。当中国工人拿到工资时，他们会尽量节省给家里用，而不是买他们想要的东西。个人欲望排在家庭和孩子的未来之后，至少在他们能够自立之前。所以中国有很高的储蓄率，并因此有了一个天文数字般的富矿。当它变成贷款时，所有这些都在经济增长中起着至关重要的作用。
3.中国对政治活动的漠视。中国人对赚钱的兴趣远比参加政治运动强得多。这种现象和态度在国内外任何一个中国社区都能看到。即使有针对中国群体的压迫，只要还能谋生，他们就会用自己的双手和大脑努力工作，而不是去街头抗议。

gczy的一部分：
1.与任何以宗教为基础的信仰相比，gczy理论是迄今为止最先进的解释人类社会的理论。你相信人人生而平等吗？不。这只是一种宗教麻醉剂。从出生的那一天起，我们就必须适应普遍存在的不平等。gcd人只相信我们应该努力用自己的双手创造一个更平等的社会，而不是等待上帝给予你平等的权利。从什么时候社会被划分为各个阶级？当不平等变成现实时。拥有更多财产的人创造了一些想象中的神（他们有时间冥想，而穷人不得不像狗一样工作来养活自己），然后以上帝的名义告诉穷人他们并没有受到上帝的祝福和宠爱，然后继续保持这样的不平等的社会地位。gcd知道土地是不平等的关键，所以他们实行彻底的土地改革改组中国社会。现在每个农村人都有自己的土地，但只是名义上的，因为所有的土地都属于这个国家。然而，农民仍然可以像拥有它一样出租它。这很复杂。例如，对于没有土地的人来说，没有土地可以卖给别人；你只能把它租给别人。这一政策的好处很多。土地不会由少数人囤积起来。政府可以通过提供大量的补偿资金，租用土地或收回土地，在此基础上，所有的基础设施都可以顺利进行，人们也可以获得长期的经济效益。

2.中国gcd都是严格的无神论者，认为科学是社会的第一生产力。但是如何实现呢？通过教育。当中国非常穷的时候，政府鼓励精英教育，而且对于大多数贫困的文盲成年人，可以参加免费的教育，在一些地区，扫除文盲的政策有点强硬。在那些成年人工作了一整天之后，他们被要求去上夜校。到了80年代，一个大学生每月可以拿到的津贴比农民靠辛勤劳动挣来的还要高。虽然中国现在不再贫穷，人们一学期也只需支付几千元人民币的学费，而且所有的年轻人都被鼓励有更高的学术追求。教育是由政府资助的，所以中国年轻人可以享受廉价但质量越来越高的大学教育。这种教育体制为经济发展提供了很多的人才。在我看来，教育应该是一个非营利事业，而不是一个企业。如果一个国家的年轻人因经济原因而负担不起高等教育，那是可耻的。

3.对妇女的解放。当中国gcd军队还是一个弱势的地方力量时，他们就传播了男女平等对待的观念。那时，在最富有的美国，妇女们正在争取妇女的选举权。所以在中国，妇女享有比西方国家更多的权利；忘了那些奇怪的西方人的排名吧。由于妇女的解放，中国现在有一个巨大的女性工作人员高于大多数国家的比例。她们用她们的创造力和能力参与工作，是中国发展如此之快的另一个重要的原因。通过平等地与男人合作，她们形成了独立的人格和自立的心态。然而，在改革开放政策实施后，有着一种许多女性在不知不觉中将自己西方化的趋势。她们宁愿呆在家里，从丈夫那里得到钱，更喜欢做家庭主妇，而不愿从事自己的事业。幸运的是，她们只是一小群人，这没有成为主流趋势。另外一些人可能会说，中国妇女的政治权利相比其他国家的同行没有那么多，这是真的，因为与西方相比中国女性较少参与政治，但他们可能忽视了中国的一个有趣的事实是：在过去30年的时间里，那里白手起家的女亿万富翁是最多的。这个数字中国是世界上其他国家的总和。中国妇女似乎对政治不感兴趣，对商业更感兴趣，而且中国也为她们提供了良好的环境。

4.另一个老生常谈的原因是，中国gcd政府把宏观经济计划与自由市场经济有机地结合起来。中国具有大多数资本主义国家的资本主义特征，看起来不像典型的社会主义社会。中国鼓励创业、竞争并且的确为帮助孵化初创公司提供了各种优惠政策。但在社会福利、医疗保健、教育、金融等重要行业，比如铁路系统，政府和国有企业在保证社会公平中发挥着至关重要的作用。还有勤劳、纪律严明、稳定、安全的社会环境等原因，但它们或多或少都与中国的传统或中共的治理有关。

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