中国会在2020年前面临经济崩溃吗？ [美国媒体]

Will China experience economic collapse by the 2020s?

中国会在2020年前面临经济崩溃吗？



Joseph Holleman
CEO2011-present
Studied at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Lives in San Diego, CA
Answered Jul 17
The greatest risk that China faces is not what it is doing internally but what is happening externally in the rest of the world.
Yes there are internal problems with China’s economy that have led to serious speculative bubbles, but based on what I have heard and read, the CCP is aware of this and is trying to take precautions for when these bubbles burst. And as Robin Daverman has very succinctly pointed out in past answers, there is a big difference when financial and economic bubbles are based on leverage provided internally as opposed to externally.
In my opinion, the biggest risk that China faces is its dependence on foreign trade to maintain the economic growth rate that keeps its populace happy and hopeful for the future. If a serious financial crash/depression should occur in the West it would likely seriously curtail the amount of international trade that China would do and severely reduce its current rate of growth.
Now the CCP does seem to be taking appropriate steps to try and transform its massive population into more of a consumer society, which would ameliorate the affects of a reduction in trade with the West. It is also making a strong effort to get Chinese businesses strongly involved with the next major consumer growth markets which are in Africa, Southeast Asia, India, and South America. And this will also serve to cushion the blow of a reduction in trade with the West.
But will that be enough soon enough? I doubt it. So yes there will likely be some severe economic blows taken by China when the worst of the next financial crisis strikes the West that could result in internal turmoil.
But I also doubt that any internal turmoil that China sees during such an event will be as deep and disruptive as it will likely be in the West.

Joseph Holleman（约瑟夫，CEO，曾就读北卡大学，住在美国加州圣地亚戈）
中国面临的最大风险不是它内部正在干的事情，而是外部世界在发生的事情。

是的，中国经济有导致了严重投机泡沫的内部问题，但是根据我听到的和读到的，中国政府意识到了这个问题并试图采取预防措施以防这些泡沫破裂。罗宾在以前的回答中已经非常简洁地指出了，如果经融和经济泡沫是基于与外部资金截然相反的内部提供的资金杠杆，情况就是截然不同的。

在我看来，中国面临最大的问题是它依赖对外贸易来保持经济增长率，这种增长率让它的人民快乐并对未来充满希望。如果西方发生一次严重的经融振荡或萧条，它们就有可能大大缩减与中国的国际贸易量，这样的话，中国当前的经济增长率就会大幅降低。

现在中国政府好像正在采取合适的步骤试着让它的庞大人口转型成为更依赖消费的社会，这将减轻与西方的贸易减少时所受到的影响。中国政府也在非常努力地让中国的公司热烈地参与到下一批主要消费增长市场，这些市场是非洲、东南亚、印度、和南美。这将为与西方贸易减少时所带来的冲击提供缓冲。

但是这样就足够了，一下就好了吗？我表示怀疑。所以，是的，当下一次足以引起中国内部经济混乱的最糟糕的经融危机打击到西方时，中国可能会遭受一些严重的经济振荡。

但是我也怀疑在这样的金融危机中，西方和中国遭受任何内部混乱的深度和破坏程度上是一样的。

Larry Park
Lived in Southern California
Answered Sat
2020 ? why not just next year ? I know you ( and your friends ) can’t wait any longer to see China to collapse, you guys started posting same question since 20 years ago in hopes that China will collapse but the reality is China every since 1987 is getting better/stronger/wealthier year by year . Suggest you change question subject next time : Dad, are we there yet ? are we there yet ? are we there yet ? Hope you can see that day before you are gone 

Larry Park（拉里，住在美国加州南部）
2020？为什么不是明年？我知道你（和你的朋友）等不及要看中国崩溃，你们从20年前就开始问同样的问题，希望中国崩溃，但是现实是，从1987年开始，中国每年都变得越来越好/强大/富有。建议你们下次把问题改成：爸爸，我们到了没？我们到了没？我们到了没？希望在你死之前能看到那一天。

Greg Blandino, works at Beijing, China
Answered Sep 27
I don’t think any of the major economies are going to suffer an actual economic collapse ala the Soviet unx unless we get major climate change related water rise and desertification, which isn’t likely in a 10 year time frx. The main hurdles China will face over the next 10 years will be the real estate situation and zombie SOEs (State Operated Enterprises: Gubmint companies), with a possible tech bubble burst, stock market crash, and rising medical costs being smaller possible problems they will likely face.
Real estate prices have skyrocketed much faster and higher than average wages in Chinese cities. According to Property Prices Index 2017 Mid-Year, Chinese cities like Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Beijing, and Shanghai have the worst price to income ration in the world: residents of these cities don’t make enough money to buy a house. Due to the 2015 Shanghai stock market crash, there is no dependable investment option for normal Chinese people outside of real estate. At the same time, rental values are relatively low compared to the real estate price. I’m not an economist and I don’t play one on TV, but these factors seem to point to a real estate bubble where rising prices don’t reflect people’s incomes and actual rental value, but are still attracting capital due to a lack of other good options.
This creates a conflict of interests: older middle-class property owners and real estate SOEs want the prices to continue rising. Young professionals and poor people want the prices to drop. Navigating these conflicting interests will cause someone to lose, and if the prices drop this will affect the Chinese economy negatively despite having a positive social effect of making housing affordable.
The other problem that will likely arise in the next ten years is the continued ineffiency of the state owned sector. According to Greg Blandino's answer to What percentage of the Chinese economy is state-owned? two-thirds of the Chinese economy is state-owned, and these SOEs are huge but not very profitable or efficient (finance/banking SOEs aside). A lot of the unprofitable SOEs employ lots of people, especially the coal mining, petroleum, and steel producing ones.
They also create a lot of pollution and other externalized costs that make them a huge obstacle to stated goals of lowering coal usage and carbon emissions. Basically these companies are going to get squeezed if the stated plans to go green are actually implemented in real life and not just on paper, as are the communities and people reliant on them for jobs. These compnaies also suck up a lot of capital from the state-run banks, and load down their balance sheets with bad investments they have to make for political reasons.
I would say the start-up tech industries will have a 2001-like dot com bubble burst in the next decade as well, but this will strengthen the industry in my opinion by gutting the huge number of Pets.Com wannabes sucking up the good capital. If anything the danger is a repeat of the 2015 stock market crash where the government froze everything for stability’s sake. Let the pretenders die, it frees up capital for the real players. Anyways, this won’t cause an “economic collapse” (we did not revert to a hunter-gatherer existence using flint tools when HotJobs.com went belly-up, neither will China) but it will cause some pain.
Depending on if they try to open up the stock market again without proper regulation, there might be another stock market crash. Currently it is locked down pretty tight, but they seem determined to give it another go sooner or later. I can’t see them not trying this again in the next decade, but we’ll see if they fumble it like they did last time.
Medical costs will rise and take up a larger slice of the government budget as the population ages and gets fatter, but the demographic pyramid is not going to squeeze until after this period is over, so this problem won’t come to a head in a decade long time frx. We’ll see an increase in medical costs associated with various pollution related illnesses, obesity/diabetes as KFC and company continue to make inroads into the Chinese diet, and various old-age related diseases as China continues to get older, but it’s not going to be catastrophic.

Greg Blandino（格雷格，在北京工作）
我不认为任何主要经济体会遭受一次实际的经济崩溃，即像苏联那样的经济崩溃，除非我们经历严重的气候变化导致的海平面上升和荒漠化，这在10年的时间范围内不可能发生。下一个十年，中国将面临的主要障碍会是房地产问题和僵尸式的国营企业，他们还有可能面临一些较小的问题如技术泡沫破裂、股市崩盘、和医疗费用上涨。

房地产价格飙升，其升速和价格比中国城市平均工资快且高得多。根据《2017年年中房地产价格指数》显示，像深圳、香港、北京和上海这些中国城市的价格和收入分配比例是世界上最差的：这些城市的居民们赚不到足够的钱买房子。由于2015年上海股市崩盘，普通中国人没有房地产之外的可靠投资途径。同时，相对于房地产售价，租房价格比较低。我不是经济学家，我也没有在电视上扮演经济学家，但是这些因素好像说明了一点，房价不断上涨导致的房地产泡沫不会影响人们的收入和实际租房价格，但是由于缺乏其它好的投资途径，房地产市场仍然在吸引资本。

这样就形成了一种利益冲突：拥有房产的老中产阶级和国营房地产公司希望价格继续上涨。年轻专业人士和穷人希望价格下降。调控这些利益冲突会导致一些人遭受损失，而如果价格下降，尽管亲民的房价会让政府收获积极的社会效应，但是这会消极地影响中国经济。

另一个在十年内可能会出现的问题是国有领域的持续低效。根据格雷格对“国有企业在中国经济中的占比是多少？”的回答，三分之二的中国经济是国有的，这些国营企业庞大但不是很盈利和高效（金融或银行国企除外）。大量不盈利的国企雇佣着大量的人，特别是煤矿、石油、和钢铁生产企业。

它们还制造了大量污染和其它具体化的成本，这让它们成为了达成用煤量和碳排放既定目标的巨大障碍。基本上，如果既定的环保计划要在现实生活中切实执行，而不只是在纸上，这些企业都会被淘汰，那些依赖这些企业的社区和人们也是如此。这些企业也从国营银行中吸取了大量资金，并且因为一些政治原因而不得不做的亏本投资导致它们负债累累。

我想说，当前处于初始阶段的中国技术产业在未来十年也会有一次跟2001年互联网泡沫一样的破裂，但是在我看来这会强化产业，因为泡沫会清除掉投机者。如果有任何危险的事情发生的话，那就会跟2015年股市崩盘一样，政府为了市场稳定而冻结了一切。让投机者去死，这会让资本向真正的创业者敞开。不管怎样，这都不会导致“金融危机”（Hotjobs.com垮台时，我们没有回到使用打火石等工具的狩猎时代生活，中国也不会），但是会引起一些疼痛。

取决于他们是否会在没有合适规章制度的情况下试图放松股票市场，这样的话，可能会有另一次股市崩盘。目前股市收得非常紧，但是他们好像决心迟早要再松开一次。我想不出他们在十年内不再松一次的理由，但是我们会看到他们会不会像上次一样笨拙。

因为人口老龄化和越来越肥胖，医疗费用会上涨，这会占用政府更多的预算，但是在这个过程完成之前，人口金字塔是不会构成问题的，所以这个问题不会在10年的时间范围内成为突出的问题。由于污染引起的各种疾病、肯德基等企业不断渗透中国人的饮食而引起的肥胖/糖尿病、以及伴随中国不断老龄化的各种老年疾病，我们将看到中国的医疗费用上升，但是这不会成为灾难性的经济问题。

Brian Chi Zhang, Engineer at Atom Tickets
Engineer at Atom Tickets
Studied at Knox College
Lives in Los Angeles
Answered Aug 23
Answer is, to some degree, quite possibly.
But the really scary part is Chinese government has shown amazing ability to weather economic storms in recent years. The top officials for specialized government branches are often high profile industry leaders with very strong education and industry background. If any government can navigate through the unexpected, I’d put my money on the Chinese government.
When it comes to making key decisions for your country in midst of a crisis, it's really not the degree of your loyalty to the government, nor your love for your people that limits the effectiveness of your decisions, which in turn becomes policies. It's often as simple as , “doing the best I can but maybe that's still not enough”. The moment you admit this gives you a better shot at placing the most capable people you know at these key positions. It's like running a Fortune 100 company and hiring a CTO or CFO based on how your employees feel about the person, or how you feel about the person. Sure that's a factor but shouldn't you be hiring the best person you know that can get the job done well?
Meritocracy doesn't seem so bad when it comes to specialized government branches any more, does it? And no, no need to give that credit to the Comminist Party. Chinese meritocracy goes way back before that:
Modern China actually has one of the closest systems to a Meritocracy, especially when it comes to specialized government branches.
Guess my answer really was, should China stay her course, she should be able to avoid economic collapses. Those democratically elected officials that got their power by appealing to the feelings of the masses? I'm sure they mean very very well, the situation however could be described as this:
鞭长莫及

Brian Chi Zhang（张，曾就读于诺克斯大学，住在美国洛杉矶，工程师）
我的回答是，在一定程度上相当有可能。

但是真正让人害怕的地方是，最近几年中国政府在应对经济风暴的问题上展现了令人吃惊的能力。行业相关政府部门的高层官员通常是立场鲜明的行业领袖，他们有着非常出色的教育和行业背景。如果要我赌哪个政府能度过不可预知的风险，我的钱会押中国政府赢。

在危机中为你的国家做出关键性决策真的跟你对政府的忠诚度没有关系，跟你对你的人民的爱也没有关系——虽然你爱的人民会限制你决策的有效性，而你的决策转而会变成政策。决策简单得就像“我尽可能做到最好，但这可能还不够”。你承认这一点的那一瞬间就有了一个更好的机会，你会把你认识的最有能力的人放到这些关系位置。就好像管理一家《财富》100强公司，在招聘首席技术官和首席财务官的时候，你根据你员工或你对应聘者的感觉决定是否雇佣。这肯定是一个要考虑的因素，但是你难道到不应该雇佣你认识的最有能力做好这份工作的人吗？

就专门的政府部门而言，精英政治看起来不再那么糟糕了，是吧？但是不需要把这项殊荣给中国政府。中国的精英政治自古就有：



* 孔子相信精英政治的概念，概括起来就是“进步依赖个人能力或成就的体制”
* 孔子的其中一句论语是“获取知识、学习、成为一个更好的人”
* 在儒学的影响下，中国开始了实行科举考试。

现代中国实际上有着一个最接近精英政治的体制，特别是就专门行业的政府部门而言。

我想我真正的回答是，如果中国沿着她的路线发展，她应该有能力避免经济崩溃。那些因为赢得了大众的好感而获得权力的西式民主选举出来的官员呢？我肯定他们的本意是非常非常好的，但是他们的情况可能要用"鞭长莫及"来形容。

Joseph Wang, studied at Ph.D Astronomy UT Austin, Physics MIT
Studied at Ph.D Astronomy UT Austin, Physics MIT
Lives in Hong Kong
Published WriterForbes
Answered Aug 17 
If you look at politics in Hong Kong or Taiwan or for that matter all over Southeast Asia, people aren’t worried because they think China is going to collapse. On the contrary, people are scared out of their minds because they are worried that China will continue to grow and get more powerful. People are getting used to the possibility that maybe China *won’t* collapse and will continue to grow at current rates for the next several decades, and that scares the living daylights out of a lot of people.
Every day that passes, you feel China getting just a little bit stronger, and the United States getting a little bit weaker, frankly, I’m far more worried about the long term future of the US economy than I am worried about the Chinese economy.
Like everywhere else in the world, China has economic problems (i.e. you have a huge amount of debt in state owned enterprises), but every single problem that you can mention is something that the government is looking at and trying to fix, and none of the problems of the Chinese economy are things that are unfixable or particularly hard to fix.
The reason I’m less worried about the Chinese economy than the US economy is that the Chinese government has a sensible vision for the future of the Chinese economy. They are putting tons of money into solar energy, robots, AI, high speed rail, drones, big data. The universities are churning out scientists and everyone is talking about “green energy.” Also, the Chinese government is moving out the cheap labour jobs to other countries, and trying to boost incomes in Central Asia and Africa so that they can buy high tech Chinese goods.
People have been talking about a Chinese economic crisis and collapse since the 1980’s, but in turned out that it was the US and European economics that hit a crisis. The Chinese economy has weathered crisis after crisis, and there is just absolutely amazing stuff going on here. People are making money, and they are putting this money into tech in order to make more money.
It’s really, really hard for me to believe that the Chinese economy is going to collapse, when the President of China is talking about green energy and how China needs to move away from coal to solar and nuclear, and when there has been a lot of talk about “gray rhinos” as the Chinese government has been looking very careful at things that could derail Chinese growth *and doing things about them*, while in the US you have a President that doesn’t believe in global warming and is cutting back in science and technology.
People talk about CCP propaganda but when I read the propaganda, it’s all about science, technology. It’s all about working together to create a better future. It involves people working with each other to fix the problems that exist. Somewhere allow the way the pro-democracy people just lost it, and if you read that propaganda it’s all doom and gloom, let’s overthrow the CCP and replace it with …. what exactly?

Joseph Wang, （王，住在香港，曾在德州大学奥斯汀分校念天文学博士，麻省理工学院念物理学博士）
如果你看看香港或台湾的政治，或就此而言的整个东南亚，人们担心不是因为他们觉得中国要崩溃。正相反，他们害怕得要死是因为担心中国会继续增长并且变得更加强大。人们正在习惯这种可能性——即也许中国“不会”崩溃并将继续以现在的速度增长个几十年，这吓得大部分人都奄奄一息。

说实话，过去的每一天，你都会感觉到中国正变得更强大，而美国正变得更虚弱，美国经济长远的未来比中国经济更让人担心得多。

就像世界上的每个地方，中国也有经济问题（即国有企业有大量的债务），但是你能提出来的所有问题都是政府正在着手试图解决的，中国没有一个无法解决或特别难解决的经济问题。

我不太担心中国经济而更担心美国经济的理由是中国政府对未来有着更合乎情理的图景。他们对太阳能、机器人、人工智能、高铁、无人机、大数据投入了海量资金。各所大学培养出大量科学家，所有人都在谈论“绿色能源”。还有，中国政府正在把廉价劳动的工作迁移到其他国家，正试图提高中亚和非洲的收入，这样他们就能够购买中国的高科技产品了。

人们从1980年代开始就一直在谈关于中国的经济危机和崩溃，但是碰到经济危机反而是美国和欧洲。中国经济见证了一个又一个危机，而这里发生的事情绝对是叹为观止的。人们在赚钱，而为了赚更多的钱，他们把赚到的钱投入到科技领域。我真的很难很难相信中国经济会崩溃，中国政府正在谈论的是绿色能源以及为什么中国需要从煤碳能源转向太阳能和核能，也有过大量关于“灰犀牛”的讨论，因为中国政府一直在非常小心地观察那些能够使中国增长脱离轨道的事情，并会对其采取措施。而在美国，你们有了一个不相信全球变暖的总统，而且还在削减科学和技术的预算。（译注：“灰犀牛”是指平常不怎么在意的事情，因为忽略最后演变成严重的问题）

人们谈论关于中国政府的政治宣传，但是当我读到这种政治宣传时，上面讲的都是关于科学、技术。上面讲的都是合作共创美好生活。讲得是人与人之间相互合作一起解决存在的问题。在有些国家支持西式民主的人不会知道这一点，如果你看他们的政治宣传，上面讲的都是中国的前景悲催又惨淡。

Robin Daverman, World traveler
Answered Sep 27
I don’t think there will be a significant “economic collapse” in China in the next 30 years. Unless there’s a WW III or a major US economic collapse that’s going to drag down everybody.
Here is the basic difference between the US and China’s economic structure: while the US economy is mostly a Wild West of individuals and private corporations, the Chinese one is mostly a giant man-made construction project. So when you try to predict an “economic collapse”, it is like predicting an earthquake or hurricane in the US, versus predicting an industrial accident in China. This is the most fundamental difference.
Let me ask you, who else runs their cities, provinces, countries, on performance plans with GDP targets? Nobody except the Chinese? Well, there you are. Almost all other governments are largely passengers on the ship of their economy. They didn’t build the boat, and they mostly can’t steer the boat effectively. They are just floating on it. (Well if you want a government to be incapable of interfere in the economy, it’s going to be equally incapable when the tsunami hits as well. Duh!)
If you don’t run the economy, how can you set GDP as your performance target, right? That’s like someone saying “vote for me because of good weather”. That’s why no US Presidents has ever run his campaign on “GDP growth x%” platform, because it’s out of their control, but Mr. Xi, all his provincial governors, and all his city mayors do. Not only that the Chinese run with it, but they’ve been hitting their Five-year plans of China targets every time in the last 70 years, except once (the Plan covering 1938 - 1962). It’s not just putting up a number in a speech. It’s two generations of technocrats, millions of them, who are ruthlessly effective in actually making it happen.
OK. Now that you see who drives the economic ship and who are just passengers, you see the difference when people talk about Economic Collapse of different countries. You are talking about a hurricane hitting Florida in the US-case, vs. a collapse of the construction project in the Chinese case. In the Chinese case, you need to talk with the team of the architect, the structural engineer, and the construction team, i.e., uate the effectiveness of the Chinese government. So essentially, all these talk in the Media about “China Collapse” is somewhat helpful to the Chinese government, because you are alxing the construction team of the potential danger here, and they’ll take a look and take corrective action on it, if they agree with you. Thus if you see a “collapse” of the Chinese economy, it’ll most likely be something that nobody foresees, and it’s beyond the ability of the Chinese government to take effective actions to mitigate it.
Given that the Chinese government has effective control over the pillars of the economy, i.e., the banks, transportation, energy and power infrastructure, etc., I don’t see how they can’t fix something internal. That’s why it’s most likely something external, beyond their control, that’ll cause them headaches in a distant future.

Robin Daverman（罗宾，旅行家）
我不认为中国在接下来30年会有任何重大“经济崩溃”。除非有第三次世界大战，或者美国经济崩溃把大家全部拖下水。

美国和中国经济结构的根本不同之处在于：美国经济主要是野蛮生长的个人和私营公司，而中国经济主要是巨型人造建筑工程。所以当你试图预测一次“经济崩溃”时，就好像是预测在美国发生的一次地震或飓风 VS 预测在中国发生一次工业事故。这是最根本的不同。

让我问一问你，在GDP目标绩效计划方面，还有谁会管理他们的城市、省、国家？除了中国政府就没有其他人了是吧？好，你这就明白了。在很大程度上，几乎所有其他国家的政府都是他们那艘经济大船的乘客。他们没有建造那艘船，他们几乎无法有效地驾驶那艘船。他们只是在船上随波逐流（好吧，如果你想要一个不能干预经济的政府，当经融海啸来临时，它也同样会是一个无能的政府。哒！）。如果你不管理经济，你又怎么能设定你的GDP绩效目标呢，对吧？这就像是有人在说“给我投票吧，因为天气不错”。那就是为什么从来没有一个美国总统竞选时在讲台上说“GDP增长xx%”，因为那超出了他们的控制，但是中国中央政府，中国所有的省级高官以及所有的市长都敢这样说。中国不仅会这样说，而且在过去70年，他们每次都达成了他们的五年计划目标，除了有一次没有达成（1958－1962）。中国不仅是拿几个数字在嘴上说说，而是两代技术专家，数百万人，坚忍又高效地真正实现了这些目标。

好了，现在你明白谁是开船的，谁只是乘客了，当人们谈论不同国家的经济崩溃时，你会看到其中的区别。你在谈论的是：美国佛罗里达被飓风袭击 VS 中国的建筑工程倒蹋。关于中国的情况，你需要和建筑师、结构工程师团队以及建筑团队沟通，相当于是在评估中国政府的效力。所以本质上，媒体上所有关于“中国崩溃”的讨论对中国政府来说是有点帮助的，因为你在警示建筑团队这里有潜在的危险，如果他们觉得你说的对，他们会检查一下，然后采取一些纠正措施。因此如果你看到中国经济的“崩溃”，那很可能是所有人都没预见到的事情，是超出中国政府能力之外而无法采取有效行动缓解的事情。

考虑到中国政府能有效控制经济支柱，即银行、运输、能源和电力设施，等等，我想他们不可能解决不了内部问题。这就是为什么在遥远的未来会让他们头痛的事情最有可能是超出他们控制之外的外部问题。

Eric G
Lived in California
upxed Aug 7
If you are smart, you shouldn’t have such a wish.
If China collapses economically, no country on Earth can survive such a disaster. China is one of the most important players in the global economy, and is the heart of global manufacturing

Eric G（埃里克，住在美国加州）
如果你聪明的话，你不会有这样一个愿望。
如果中国经济崩溃，地球上没有一个国家能在这样一次灾难中幸免于难。在全球经济领域，中国是世界上最重要的角色之一，是世界制造业的心脏。