为什么东盟国家不合并为一个国家以在战争中抗衡中国 [美国媒体]

Why can't just ASEAN nations merge into one country and fight China and plus if they won the war, the South China Sea oil reserve could be distributed with the members states?

为什么东盟国家不合并为一个国家以在一场战争中抗衡中国。如果他们赢得了战争，那么这些成员国们就可以共享南海的石油储备了。





Rinat Abdekadir, I'm a Kazakh-Chinese who was born in Xinjiang.
Answered Nov 26
A lot of people tend to have a lot of misconceptions about the whole South China Sea disputes and China’s relations with ASEAN in the first place. Most Westerners I know tend to have this incredibly naive view that “all Southeast Asians hate China and love US cuz China big evil commie empire” and all that jazz. The truth is inter-ASEAN relations are not actually that good.

很多人都对南中国海的争端以及中国与东盟之间的关系有着很多的误解。我认识的大多数西方人都有着这样一种非常天真的观点：“所有的东南亚人都恨中国，爱着美国，因为中国是个邪恶的gczy帝国。”实际上，东盟国家之间的关系并没有那么的密切。

For example, Vietnam and the Philippines seem to be united against China. But how united are they actually? Both the Vietnamese and the Filipino’s have conflicting claims amongst themselves. Vietnam and the Philippines claims the entirety of the Spratly islands, the dispute just doesn’t get as much coverage in the west because of the whole image of “China big evil commie empire”.

举个例子吧，越南和菲律宾似乎正联合起来对抗中国。但是他们之间真的如此团结吗？其实越南人和菲律宾两国之间的领土声张也是互相矛盾的。他们两国都宣称自己对南沙群岛拥有全部主权，然而他们之间的这一争端却没有在西方得到太多的报道，因为西方人对中国就是一个“庞大的邪恶gczy帝国”的那种刻板印象。

In fact, the Philippines actually once protested against the Vietnamese with China when they claimed the Vietnamese violated an earlier agreement to not disrupt the status quo in May 2009. This sort of under the rug competition between the Vietnamese and the Filipinos is swept under the rug precisely because China is so much more powerful than the two.

事实上，越南曾和中国一同抗议，他们指责越南违反了2009年5月诸国签订的一份不破坏现状的协议。然而随着事态的发展，越南和菲律宾之间的竞争已经被完全地掩盖了，因为中国比起这两个国家强大得太多。

Then there is Cambodia and Vietnam, oh boy.Cambodians absolutely despise Vietnam, during the 17th and 18th centuries the Vietnamese progressively marched Southward from the North and colonized huge swathes of Cambodian territory in the Mekong delta. This was also combined with the fact that today Cambodians within Vietnam are also discriminated and marginalized, many Cambodians still feel a great deal of resentment towards Vietnam because of this. Cambodia as a result is the most pro-China country in ASEAN, Vietnam and Cambodia also have some minor border disputes that would never really be a big deal if it weren’t for the bad history these two have had.

然后还有柬埔寨和越南之间的关系。噢，我的天啊。柬埔寨人完全鄙视越南，在17和18世纪，越南人逐渐地向南方扩张，并在湄公河三角洲地区殖民了大片的柬埔寨领土。并且考虑到如今越南境内的柬埔寨人依然被越南人歧视和边缘化的事实，许多柬埔寨人仍然因为这段历史对越南人有着强烈的不满。实际上，柬埔寨是东盟内最亲中国的国家。柬埔寨和越南之间有着一些并不严重的边境争端，但考虑到这两国之间的糟糕历史，这很可能会衍变成为一个两国间重大的问题。

Then there is Laos and Vietnam.Laotians also hold a grudge against Vietnam, during the Vietnam war the Vietnamese helped overthrow the non-communist government of Laos, leading to Laos becoming a satellite state of Vietnam for a long time. Vietnam also unilaterally occupied huge swathes of Laotian territory in order to transport soldiers to the south during the Vietnam war, this led to the US bombing and mining these areas heavily which causes death even today. Suffice to say, Laotians don’t have a good opinion of Vietnam. Laos is also a pro-China state in ASEAN.

再然后就是老挝和越南之间的关系。老挝人也同样对越南心存怨恨，在越南战争期间，越南帮助老挝推翻了其非共产主义政府，这也导致了老挝在很长的时间里都充当着越南卫星国的角色。越共为了在战争期间迅速地将自己的士兵派遣到南方还曾单方面地占领了大量的老挝领土，这也导致了美国对于该地区的轰炸以及地雷埋放。甚至到了今天，仍然有了为此失去生命。可以这么说吧，老挝人对越南没有什么好感。而老挝也是东盟中的亲中国家之一。

The truth is, it’s not China vs ASEAN, it’s everyone vs. everyone.
The Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, China, ROC all dispute the Spratly’s, the only reason why ASEAN seems “united” against China is because China is just so much
larger than all others. If China just suddenly decided to leave the Spratly’s all of these countries would begin fighting amongst each other, it’s a simple principle of economics called the “Tragedy of the commons”.
Also there is the issue with ASEAN countries which are not party to the SCS disputes, but I will assume you didn’t actually mean to ask about them.
Basically, ASEAN is too fragmented with differing interests, territorial disputes amongst themselves and different histories to ever unite against China.

所以说事实的真相并非中国VS东盟，而是每个国家都各自为战。菲律宾，马来西亚，越南，中国以及台湾（省）都声称自己对南沙群岛拥有主权，而东盟国家“联合”起来反对
中国的唯一原因就是中国比其他所有国家都要大太多了。如果中国突然决定远离南沙群岛，那么这些国家将会开始互相争斗，这其实是一个叫做“公地悲剧”的简单的经济学原理。
从根本上来说，东盟并不团结，他们各自有着不同的利益主张，领土争端，以及不同的历史，这都些因素都让他们无法联合起来与中国抗衡。

Chen Xu，Answered Nov 26
The fact is, before the disputes, ASEAN countries were building oil drilling platforms in SEA, even more than China’s, and this was part of the agreement they made with China.
The problem is, when Obama decided to “pivot to Asia”, they think they can get more because they had a big stick in their master’s hand, they refused to let China to get the fair share.
Now it seems that Trump doesn’t have too much interest to continue Obama’s policy, ASEAN countries realized that the big stick is no more, so they came around to support the status quo.What a farce.

事实上在南海争端发生之前，东盟国家们也在南海建造了石油钻井平台，甚至比中国建得还多，这也是他们与中国之间达成的协议的一部分。然而问题是，当奥巴马决定推行他的“转向亚洲”的政策时，这些国家开始觉得自己可以获取更多的利益了，因此他们狗仗人势拒绝让中国得到自己顺理成章的份额。而事到如今，特朗普对于继续推行奥巴马的政策没有太多的兴趣，东盟国家已经意识到了已经没有人会帮他们出头了，于是他们又开始支持维持南海的现状。完全就是一场滑稽剧。

Shen Hui, lived in China
Answered Nov 28
As a Chinese, I welcome such an idea. I think it’s a faster way to solve the South China Sea dispute without us bearing any moral burden.
China is, without doubt, the single most underestimated country militarily. Even without using nuclear weapons, China can easily defeat the ASEAN countries, Japan and Korea combined.
ASEAN countries should be glad that Mr. Duterte, rather than Aquino III is president of the Philippines, and that Vietnam also has a more pro-China government now. Trust me when I say that they are doing all they can to protect your national interests.

作为一个中国人，我对这个主意表示欢迎。我认为，这是解决南海争议的一个更加快捷的方式，而且不需要我们承担任何道义上的负担。中国毫无疑问，是世界上在军事方面最被低估的国家。杜尔特成为菲律宾的总统，而不是阿基诺三世；越南如今也有了一个更亲中国的政府，这一切都是值得东盟国家高兴的事情，因为请相信我吧，这些事情的发生正说明着你们正在尽一切的努力保护着自己的国家利益。

Erri Wibowo, worked at Banks，Answered Nov 25
They tried once. Against Kubilai Khan. The kings family married each other.
New military alliance in ASEAN will be much harder to be formed. No single religion, no single lnguage, competing each other in terms of economy.

他们已经尝试过一次了，在反抗忽必烈的时候，各国的王储之间进行了通婚。而在如今的东盟建立一个新的军事联盟将会困难很多。这些国家没有统一的宗教，没有单一的种族，而他们在经济方面也互相竞争。

C. Michel de Wilde, Know general history of China. I am an overseas Chinese after all.
Answered Nov 25
It’s a false assumption that every ASEAN members want to fight with china. not really, China has been a benevolent economic hegemon in the south east asia and unlike united states, it has not bombed other nations.Yes, south china sea is a big security issue here, but China will always look for a win-win solution ASEAN countries don’t wish any war in south eas asia since we are prospering economically. sure there have been diplomatic hiccups here and there, there are geopolitics of pro vs anti china in ASEAN countries, but we do much better than countries in middle east (where the individual country must choose between Saudi or Iran instead of co-existing together through trade)

每个东盟国家都想与中国开战，这其实是一个错误的假设。事实上，中国在东南亚地区一直都是一个仁慈的经济霸主，与美国不同，中国没有对其他国家进行轰炸。是的，南海是一个很大的安全隐患，但是中国一直在追求着一种双赢的解决方案。而东盟国家也不希望东南亚引来任何的战争，因为我们目前正在经济方面取得繁荣的进步。当然了，东盟国家和中国之间的确存在着一些外交问题，而且我们也和中国在地缘政治方面有些一些对抗，但是我们处理得比中东国家要好很多。（在那里，每个国家都必须在沙特或者伊朗之间做出选择，而不是通过贸易来共存。）

Daniel Chew，Answered Nov 25
And if we lose the war?I agree with the merger. Good idea. Let’s do it.
Fighting China though, is a dumb idea. If the Americans wants to fight China, they can do it themselves. Nobody else is going to be doing the fighting and dying for them. Does OP even have any idea how much trade is going on between the countries here with China? America is not the only country that China trades with.

那如果我们输掉这场战争的话会如何？我同意合并，这是个好主意。但是，向中国发起战争则完全是一个愚蠢的想法。如果美国想要发起对中国的战争，那么他们可以自己去做。没有人会为他们战斗，为他们去死。而且题主你知道东盟国家和中国之间的贸易往来有多大吗？美国并不是中国唯一的贸易对象。

Gregg Gray, former MSgt at U.S. Air Force，Answered Nov 25
Because they have neither the manpower, money, or equipment to fight China. The disadvantages they would be at cannot be overcome.

因为他们没有人力，也没有资金和装备来对抗中国。东盟国家所面临的劣势是无法被克服的。