中国的经济实力实际上比你想像的要小得多 [美国媒体]

China’s economic power is actually a lot smaller than you think

中国的经济实力实际上比你想像的要小得多

China’s true economic strength could be overstated as statistics suggest that the US are still top dog. AAP Image/ Lukas Coch

中国真正的经济实力可能被高估了，数据表明美国依然是最大的经济体。

China’s economic presence on world markets is actually much smaller than that of the United States of America and smaller than our key three asia-pacific allies combined.

中国经济在国际市场里的存在实际上比美国要小的多，也比我们三个关键的亚洲太平洋盟友联合起来要小的多。

In recent years, reports by financial institutions like the World Bank have claimed China is the world’s largest economy. China’s annual gross domestic product (GDP), when converted to United States dollars using purchasing power parity exchange rates is estimated to be worth around US$19 trillion, surpassing the USA’s GDP of US$17 trillion.

近年来，像世界银行之类的金融机构的报道已经宣布中国是世界上最大的经济体。中国的年GDP以转换成美元的购买力平价计，估计大约值19万亿美元，超过美国17万亿美元的GDP

China’s size is a good indicator of potential economic opportunities for Australia. But China’s rise is also creating a growing discomfort in how China will use its economic power. In both Washington and Canberra questions are being asked about how to our balance economic interests with these growing political and security concerns.

中国的规模对于澳大利亚来说是一个不错的潜在经济机会的风向标。但是中国的崛起也不断引起对中国如何运用其经济实力的不安。



As a large country China may insist on a greater acceptance of its own ideals and priorities as a condition of economic engagement. As a dictatorship, however, its ambitions are unclear and may not align well with Australia and other democratic countries in the region.

作为一个大国，中国可能坚持要求对中国自身的理念和权威有更高的接受度作为经济贸易的条件。然而，作为一个专制政权，中国的野心是不明确的而且可能与澳大利亚及区域内其他民主国家站不到一条线上。

Likewise China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea has rekindled interest in security cooperation between the region’s largest democracies, Japan, India and Australia, as well as the United States through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.

中国在南中国海的自信也重新引起了区域最大的民主国家-日本、印度、澳大利亚以及美国通过四边合作对话来进行安全合作的兴趣。

The concerns raised are real, but are in some ways exaggerated. Specifically, the figure of US$19 trillion is an estimate based on a purchasing power parity exchange rate, which overstates China’s impact on world markets.

这份引起的关注是真实存在的，但是在某方面来说是夸大了。特别是，19万亿美元仅是基于购买力平价汇率的估计数据，而这份数据高估了中国在世界市场上的影响。

This is because the purchasing power parity exchange rate tells us how much money you need in China to be as well off as you are in the US. It is a measure of how big China’s GDP would be if costs of living were the same as the US.

这是因为购买力平价汇率告诉我们，你在中国需要多少钱才能达到你在美国一样的水准。如果生活的花销与美国相同，这确实是一个表明中国GDP有多大的计量方法。



This can be useful, but it is not an indicator of China’s footprint in the world economy.

这可能很有用，但购买力平价不是一个中国在世界经济中影响力的指标。

A reasonable measure of a country’s economic footprint on the world economy is how much it could potentially change demand or supply on world markets.

对于一个国家在世界经济中经济影响力的一个合理的估量是其可能多大程度地改变世界市场的需求与供给。

When countries export they have to accept payment based on market exchange rates. Likewise when countries import they must pay in foreign currency based on market exchange rates. This means that to compare China’s market size with the US, we need to convert China’s GDP, measured through China’s currency renminbi, to US dollars, using market exchange rates.

当一个国家出口时，它们就必须接受基于市场汇率的付款。而当国家进口时，它们必须支付基于市场汇率的外国货币。这意味着要比较中国与美国的市场规模，我们必须将中国的GDP进行转换，将其从以中国的人民币计用市场汇率兑换成美元来计量。

China’s GDP measured at market exchange rates, however, is only US$9 trillion - almost half that of the US.

然而，中国的GDP以市场汇率计只有9万亿美元，仅仅为美国的一半。

This means that the impact China’s economy can potentially have on the world economy is really only about half as much as the US.

这意味着中国的经济在世界上的潜在影响实际上仅有美国的一半。

The difference in values arises for the same reason that tourists find that their money often goes much further in developing countries. That is if you convert your US dollars to renminbi, you will find that you can purchase a lot more in China than the US, especially in non traded goods and services such as haircuts or street food.

这点体现在价值上的不同与游客发现他们的钱在发展中国家里更值钱具有相同的原因。那就是如果你把你的美元兑换成人民币，你将会发现你能在中国购买比美国更多的东西，尤其是那些非贸易产品和服务，像是剪头发和街头小吃。

The purchasing power parity exchange rate is the rate that tells you how much you need in China to be just as well off- for example to buy the same basket of goods. It’s very useful rate for tourists and is great way to compare standards of living across countries.

购买力平价汇率是这样的一种汇率，例如它会告诉你当购买一篮子相同的商品时，你在中国需要花费多少钱。这是种对于游客来说非常有用的费率，而且也是种比较不同国家生活标准的有效方法。

But it’s not a measure of how much you can actually buy. In order to measure the potential influence of China’s economy, it is buying and selling power that matters.

但是它并不是一个你能实际上购买多少东西的计量方法。想要估计中国经济的潜在影响，这取决于购买力与销售力。

The same line of reasoning also effects how we should think about the asia-pacific partnership of regional democracies. The combined GDP of India, Japan and Australia, measured at purchasing power parity rates is smaller than China.

同样的推理也影响到我们应该如何看待亚太区域民主国家伙伴关系。印度、日本和澳大利亚的GDP的总和以购买力平价率计小于中国。



But at market exchange rates their combined market size exceeds that of China. This is because just as purchasing power parity exchange rates make China seem too big, they make Japan seem small relative to its real buying and selling power on world markets.

但在以市场汇率计他们联合起来的市场规模要超过中国。这是因为购买力平价汇率使中国看起来变得很大，使日本看上去相对其在世界市场上的实际购买力和销售力要小。

The collective GDP of Japan, Australia, India and the United States represents a market that is around three times larger than China.

日本，澳大利亚，印度和美国的GDP的总和代表了一个大约比中国大三倍的市场。



These differences are quite significant and they are important because they affect the way we think about the value of economic opportunities and our security alliances. When interpreted appropriately China is a large country. But it still has a long way to go before it can match the sheer economic weight of the US.

这些不同非常重要，因为他们影响了我们看待经济机会及我们的安全联盟的价值。合理的解释是，中国是一个大国。但其还有很长的一段路才能完全达到美国的经济体量。

So while China is very important, the market size of regional democracies should not be underestimated.

所以即使中国非常重要，民主国家的市场规模也不应该被低估。