朝鲜不是特朗普在亚洲最大的问题 [美国媒体]

North Korea Is Not Trump's Biggest Problem in Asia

朝鲜不是特朗普在亚洲最大的问题

Richard Javad Heydarian
January 25, 2018

理查德Javad Heydarian
2018年1月25日



The South China Sea is increasingly reflecting new and dangerous power dynamics.

南中国海正日益反映出新的危险的权力转移。

Against the backdrop of strategic fatalism in the South China Sea, with some claimant states openly embracing graceful accommodation with China, the United States has sent an unmistakable message of resolve to preserve freedom of navigation and overflight in international waters. The Scarborough Shoal, a tiny rock formation in the South China Sea, is fast emerging as a major flashpoint between the world’s two greatest powers.

在中国南海战略宿命论的背景下，一些主权国家公然与中国达成和解，美国发出了在国际水域保持航行和飞越自由的明确无误的信息。斯卡伯勒浅滩(Scarborough Shoal，中国称黄岩岛)是南中国海(South China Sea，中国称南海)的一个小礁石，它正迅速成为世界上两个最大强国之间的一个主要危机爆发点。

Earlier this month, the U.S. Navy (USN) deployed guided missile destroyer USSHopper within twelve nautical miles of the contested shoal, which has been under China’s jurisdictional control since 2012. This was arguably the most powerful expression of American commitment against further Chinese revanchism in the world’s most important sea line of communications (SLOCs).

本月早些时候，美国海军(USN)在有争议的黄岩岛的12海里范围内部署了导弹驱逐舰USS Hopper，这个岛自2012年以来一直处于中国管辖范围内。这可以说是美国在世界上最重要的海上通道中进一步对抗中国复仇主义的最有力的表现。

In response, Beijingaccused Washington of violating its supposed “sovereignty” over the shoal. Shortly after, a fiery commentary on Chinese Communist Party’s official newspaper, People’s Daily, tried to cite America’s latest Freedom of Navigation Operation (FONOP) as a pretext for full militarization of Chinese-claimed land features in the area. The FONOPs are specifically measured to challenge Beijing’s unlawful and excessive claims in the South China Sea.

作为回应，北京指责华盛顿违反了其对浅滩的所谓“主权”。不久之后，中国官方报纸《人民日报》发表了一篇激烈的评论文章，试图以美国最新的自由航行行动(FONOP)为借口，以进一步全面军事化中国在这一地区宣称拥有的土地。自由航行行动是专门用来挑战北京在南中国海的非法和过度主张的措施。

“Against this backdrop of peace and cooperation, a U.S. ship wantonly provoking trouble is single-minded to the point of recklessness,”warned thePeople’s Daily commentary. “If the relevant party once more makes trouble out of nothing and causes tensions, then it will only cause China to reach this conclusion: in order to earnestly protect peace in the South China Sea, China must strengthen and speed up the building of its abilities there,” the article continued.

《人民日报》评论说:“在和平与合作的大背景下，一艘美国军舰恣意挑起麻烦，是一意孤行鲁莽行为。”文章继续写道：“如果有关方面一再制造麻烦，无中生有，造成紧张局势，那么这只会导致中国得出这样的结论:为了切实维护南海和平，中国必须加强和加快在南海的能力建设。”

In his first year in office rising tensions in the Korean Peninsula largely consumed President Donald Trump’s bandwidth. In exchange for China’s assistance on North Korea, many regional experts contend, the American president seemingly dialed down criticism of and confrontation with China in the South China Sea. Realities on the ground, however, are catching up with Trump.

在他执政的第一年里，朝鲜半岛的紧张局势在很大程度上消耗了唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)总统的时间。许多地区专家认为，为了换取中国对处理朝鲜问题的协助，这位美国总统似乎已经平息了对中国在南中国海的批评和对抗。然而，现实情况让特朗普发生了改变。

As President Donald Trump enters his second year in office, the South China Seaseems to be returning to the top of his administration’s agenda. This is partly driven by the fact that China has pushed the envelope over the past year,reclaiming an additional 290,000 square meters and deploying increasingly sophisticated military assets to its artificially created land features in the area. As the Korean Peninsula topped Washington’s strategic priorities, China relished its strategic impunity in other crucial theatres.

随着唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)进入总统的第二年任期，南中国海似乎正重新回到他的政府议程的首位。这在一定程度上是由于中国在过去一年中推动了该领域的发展，额外填海造地了29万平方米的面积，并将越来越复杂的军事资产部署到该地区人造土地上。随着朝鲜半岛成为华盛顿的战略重点，中国在一些关键问题上享受了战略空窗期。

On the other hand,an empowered Pentagon seems to be increasingly successful in convincing the Trump administration not to drop the ball in the area. In recent days, Defense Secretary James Mattis also visited key Southeast Asian countries, Vietnam and Indonesia, in hopes of rallying regional states against China's maritime ambitions.

另一方面，获得授权的五角大楼也似乎越来越成功地说服特朗普政府不要在该地区犯错误。最近几天，美国国防部长詹姆斯•马蒂斯(James Mattis)也访问了东南亚国家，越南和印度尼西亚，希望能团结地区国家对抗中国的海上野心。

The Next Flashpoint

下一个危机点

The Scarborough Shoal lies within the 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone of the Philippines,which claims the land feature as part of its national territory. Manila posits that it has exercised continuous and effective sovereignty over the land feature over the past century, first as a Spanish and American colony and later as an independent country.

斯卡伯勒浅滩（黄岩岛）位于菲律宾的200海里专属经济区范围内，菲律宾声称这块土地是其国家领土的一部分。之前作为西班牙和美国的殖民地，后来又成为一个独立的国家。马尼拉指出，在过去的一个世纪里，它对这块土地行使了持续和有效的主权。

Throughout the Cold War years, the Philippines gave Americans permission to conduct naval drills near the shoal. China coercively occupied the land feature after a months-long naval standoff with the Philippines in 2012.

在整个冷战时期，菲律宾允许美国人在浅滩附近进行海军演习。2012年，中国与菲律宾进行了长达数月的海军对峙后，中国强行占领了这片土地。

In 2016, an arbitration body at The Hague, constituted under the aegis of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS),ruled the shoal as a “common fishing ground” for adjacent states. It censured China for forcibly preventing Filipino fishermen from accessing the rich marine resources in the area.

2016年，位于海牙的仲裁机构基于《联合国海洋法公约》(UNCLOS)，将浅滩判决为毗邻国家的“共同渔场”。它指责中国强行阻止菲律宾渔民获取该地区丰富的海洋资源。

The United States has long maintained official neutrality on sovereignty disputes in the area, and has repeatedly refused to clarify whether it would come to the Philippines’ (a treaty ally) assistance in an event of conflict with China over disputed land features. Under President Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippines has also tried to distance itself from Washington amid an ongoing rapprochement with China.

长期以来，美国一直保持着对该地区主权争议的官方中立态度，并一再拒绝澄清是否会在与中国就有争议的土地问题发生冲突时向菲律宾（条约盟友）提供援助。在菲律宾总统罗德里戈•杜特尔特(Rodrigo Duterte)的领导下，菲律宾还试图在与中国的友好关系中与华盛顿保持距离。

In fact, in response to America’s FONOP in the Scarborough Shoal, Duterte’s left-leaning presidential spokesman Harry Roquedismissively said, "We do not wish to be part of a US-China intramural…The United States can take care of its own interest."

事实上,杜特尔特的左翼总统发言人哈里·罗克在回应美国在浅滩的自由航行时轻蔑地说,“我们不希望作为美中势力的一部分…美国可以保护它自己的利益。”

Generals Step In

将军们插手干预

Nonetheless, the Pentagon is deeply worried about the prospect of Chinese reclamation on and militarization of the disputed land feature.

尽管如此，五角大楼还是对中国对这片有争议的土地的开垦和军事化的前景深感担忧。

The Scarborough Shoal lies just above 100 nautical miles from Subic and Clark bases, which have served as crucial nodes in America’s project of naval prowess in Western Pacific and East Asia. The shoal is last missing piece in the planned strategic triangle (aside from the Spratlys and Paracels) of a Chinese sprawling network of airbases and military facilities in the South China Sea.

斯卡伯勒浅滩距美国在西太平洋和东亚的海军实力项目的关键节点苏比克和克拉克基地仅100海里。这个浅滩是计划中的中国在南海的空军基地和军事设施网络战略三角(除了南沙群岛和西沙群岛)的最后一部分。

The Philippines’ defense establishment has also made it clear that China’s full occupation of the shoal, and installation of weapons systems there, is “unacceptable.” Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana, who has openly expressed skepticism towards China,defended America’s FONOPs as exercise in “innocent passage” by the USN.

菲律宾的国防部门也明确表示，中国完全占领这个浅滩，并在那里安装武器系统是“不可接受的”。美国国防部长洛伦扎纳(Delfin Lorenzana)曾公开表示对中国持怀疑态度，并为美国的航行自由行动中美国海军的“无害通过”辩护。

The Pentagon clearly views China’s maritime assertiveness as the most important challenge to American primacy in Asia. In its newly released National Defense Strategy (NDS), the Pentagon openly described Beijing as a “strategic competitor”, which is “using predatory economics to intimidate its neighbors while militarizing features in the South China Sea.”

五角大楼清醒的认识到中国的海上自信是对美国在亚洲主导地位的最重要挑战。在最新发布的《国防战略》(NDS)中，五角大楼公开将北京描述为“战略竞争对手”，称北京“利用掠夺性的经济手段来威胁邻国，同时将南中国海军事化”。

The document accuses Beijing of “seek[ing] Indo-Pacific regional hegemony in the near-term and displacement of the United States to achieve global preeminence in the future.” Under the Trump administration, great power rivalry is fastbecoming a national security priority. The South China Sea will increasingly reflect this new and dangerous dynamic.

该文件指责北京“在近期内寻求印度-太平洋地区的霸权，并在未来取代美国实现全球领先地位”。在特朗普政府的领导下，大国竞争正迅速成为国家安全的优先事项。南海将越来越多地反映这种新的、危险的动态。

And many smaller Southeast Asian countries, which fear China, are more than glad to quietly welcome an invigorated America that pursues peace through strength in the South China Sea.

许多较小的东南亚国家害怕中国，他们非常高兴静静地欢迎一个强大的，增强在南中国的海力量来寻求和平的美国。