【 Quora 】：如果没有发生一战和二战，世界会变成什么样子？ [美国媒体]

What would the world be like if WWI and WWII never happened?

如果没有发生一战和二战，世界会变成什么样子？




The world would in a few ways be very similar and in other ways be completely unrecognizable to us. The two global conflicts led to the fall of the mighty European Empire that dominated much of the world starting from the 1500s to the mid 1900s. France, Britain, Germany, Russia, Italy, Portugal, Belgium and the Netherlands all still had significant territorial holdings that made them either major or middle powers before WWI started. Half a century after the First World War broke out, nearly all of these powers would lose all or nearly all their colonies. European Imperialism died not due to external factors but due to the conflicts between militarism, nationalism, liberalism, conservatism, fascism and communism which dominated the entire century.

世界将会在某些方面与现在非常相似，但也会在其他方面变的完全不同。这两个全球性的冲突导致了强大的欧洲帝国的衰落，从16世纪到20世纪中期，这个帝国统治了世界大部分地区。法国、英国、德国、俄罗斯、意大利、葡萄牙、比利时和荷兰在当时拥有大量的领土，这使得他们在一战开始之前要么是一流强国家，要么是中等强国。在第一次世界大战爆发的半个世纪后，几乎所有这些国家都将失去了所有或接近所有的殖民地。欧洲帝国主义的消亡并不是由于外部因素，而是因为自身的军国主义、民族主义、自由主义、保守主义、法西斯主义、共产主义等导致的在那个世纪的冲突。

WWI alone led to the collapse of four mighty empires, some of which had existed for more than half a millennia. The Austro-Hungarian Empire, ruled by the Habsburg Dynasty, and the Ottoman Empire, which once dominated the eastern Mediterranean, completely collapsed and lost all their former territories outside of their heartlands. The Russian Empire and the German Empires lost some significant territory but their successor states still had the potential to regain their prominence.
WWII signaled the end of European military domination of the world; after WWII, Britain and France, too exhausted from the fighting, began losing their key colonies. Meanwhile, Italy and Germany were too destroyed and fragmented to be of any threat to the superpowers, the United States, and the Soviet Union.

仅一战就导致了四个强大帝国的崩溃，其中一些帝国已经存在了超过500年。由哈布斯堡王朝统治的奥匈帝国，曾经统治东地中海的奥斯曼帝国，都彻底崩溃，失去了很多的外围领土。俄罗斯帝国和德国帝国也失去了一些重要的领土，但它们的继承国仍有希望复兴他们的辉煌。
二战标志着欧洲军事统治世界的终结;二战后，英国和法国在战争中精疲力竭，开始失去他们的主要殖民地。与此同时，意大利和德国也被摧毁，四分五裂，无法对超级大国美国和苏联构成威胁。

Before the outbreak of the First World War. With a few exceptions such as Japan and Ethiopia, most nationstates in this period had either been subjugated by the European empires, defeated to an extent or kept around to serve as a buffer state.
Let’s answer WWI first. Had World War One not broken out, or at least not on the four year long, tens of millions dead/crippled version that it did, then we can safely say that most of the European empires will not face exhaustion and will survive. Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire might still collapse in say the 1930s due to their own weaknesses, due I cannot see the Germans or the Russians be destroyed. The colonial situation in Africa and Southeast Asia will remain roughly the same.

在第一次世界大战爆发之前。除了日本和埃塞俄比亚等少数国家例外，这一时期的大多数国家要么被欧洲帝国征服，要么在某种程度上被击败，或者作为一个缓冲国存在。
让我们先回答一战。如果第一次世界大战没有爆发，或者没有四年那么久，没有数以千万计的死亡或残废，那么我们就可以放心地说，大多数欧洲帝国将不会面临死亡，并将继续存在下去。奥匈帝国和奥斯曼帝国可能会在20世纪30年代由于自身的弱点而崩溃，但我们不会看到德国人和俄国人被摧毁。非洲和东南亚的殖民情况也将大致相同。

Does the Great Depression still happen? If WWI doesn’t occur, it might be mothballed due all the various factors. If the Great Depression doesn’t occur, then we have no idea how Europe and the world will turn out. We might see a repeat of the late 1800s for all we know. Even if it does happen, there is no guarantee what might happen. I am convinced Fascism and Communism will grow in power, but I cannot be sure if Nazism could even rise to where it did, given how Germany was either not in a major war to begin with, or worse comes to worse was defeated in a minor war that reaped no major ill will towards the Western Allies.

大萧条还会发生吗?如果因为各种因素而被封存了，导致二战没有发生。那么如果大萧条也没有发生，我们可能就不知道欧洲和世界将如何发展了。我们可能会看到19世纪末的重演。即使大萧条真的发生了，也不能保证会发生什么。我相信法西斯和共产主义还是会增长,但我不能确定纳粹主义可以上升到当年的那样子，毕竟在假设中德国没有在一战中失败，也就没有对西方国家的恶意产生更糟糕的二战。

So, in addition to European Imperialism still having strength, we also get no Nazis in this alternate universe.
A somewhat feasible scenario is that after the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Ottoman Empires collapse in say the late 1920s/early 1930s due to an economic collapse, we get a different version of WWI break out, except it might not be even labeled the “Great War”. Russia might try to expand its sphere of influence in the Balkans and the Black Sea, which makes France, Britain and Germany all balk. Russia tries to support Serbia, Bulgaria and the Greeks create Balkan Empires on the corpses of the Austrian and Turkish Empires in the mid 1930s. With no Austria left (the German Empire annexes it) and with the French and British fervently opposed to Russia dominating the Black Sea. The Germans however, while displeased by Russia, cannot tolerate any further French strength. This eventually snowballs into a German-Russian alliance.

所以，除了欧洲帝国主义还是有力量的，在这个平行世界中可能没有纳粹。
一个可能的方案是，奥匈帝国和奥斯曼帝国在20世纪20年代末30年代初因经济崩溃而帝国崩塌后，我们会得到一个不同版本的一战，但它可能不会被称为世界“大战”。俄罗斯可能会试图扩大其在巴尔干和黑海的势力范围，这使得法国、英国和德国都陷入了困境。在20世纪30年代中期，俄罗斯会试图支持塞尔维亚、保加利亚和希腊人在奥地利和土耳其帝国的尸体上建立巴尔干帝国。由于没有奥地利(德意志帝国吞并了它)，法国和英国会强烈反对俄罗斯统治黑海。然而，德国人虽然对俄罗斯不满，但它不能容忍法国力量的进一步增强。最终，雪球变成了德俄同盟。

The German and Russian Empires’ allies include the Kingdom of Greece (which dominates Western Turkey as well due to Russian support), the Kingdom of Armenia (an excuse to take over Northeastern Turkey), the Kingdom of Bulgaria, the Kingdom of Yugoslavia and the Arabs living in the Arabian Peninsula, Iraq and the Levant.
Opposing Russia are the British Empire, the French Republic, the Kingdom of Italy, the Kingdom of Romania, the Kingdom of Hungary and the remnants of the Turkish independence movement led by Ataturk.

德国和俄罗斯帝国的盟友包括希腊王国(因为俄罗斯支持其占据西部土耳其),亚美尼亚王国(接管了土耳其东北部),保加利亚王国,南斯拉夫王国和生活在阿拉伯半岛,伊拉克和黎凡特的阿拉伯人。（译者加：黎凡特是一个不精确的历史上的地理名称，它指的是中东托罗斯山脉以南、地中海东岸、阿拉伯沙漠以北和上美索不达米亚以西的一大片地区。）
反对俄罗斯联盟的是大英帝国、法兰西共和国、意大利王国、罗马尼亚王国、匈牙利王国，以及由阿塔图尔克领导的土耳其独立运动的残余势力。

A long and brutal war occurs. It lasts three years and to an extent weakens Europe. France and Britain go toe to toe in the Western Front, but elsewhere the results are a rout for the French and the British. The Russians overwhelm Romania and Turkey through sheer brute strength and numbers. The Arab rebels overthrow the British and French sent to pacify the reason, while the Bulgarians, Greeks and Serbians defeat the Hungarians and Italians. By the conclusion of the conflict, the French and British agree to peace terms, which solidify the German claim on Alsace-Lorraine while also dismantling whatever ambitions they had for the Middle East and the Balkans.

一场漫长而残酷的战争发生了。它将持续三年，在一定程度上削弱了欧洲。英法在西方战线上和德俄对峙，但在其他地方的结果却是法国和英国的溃败。俄国人用蛮力和数量征服了罗马尼亚和土耳其。阿拉伯叛军推翻了英国和法国的殖民政府，而保加利亚人、希腊人和塞尔维亚人击败了匈牙利人和意大利人。在冲突结束后，法国和英国同意了和平条款，这巩固了德国对阿尔萨斯-洛林的主张，同时也摧毁了英法对中东和巴尔干半岛的任何野心。

Regardless, Japan continues to rise in the East. However, if we prevent WWII in terms of a Sino-Japanese War as well, then Chiang’s Nationalists will eventually crush the Communist and modernize China enough so that the Japanese will be forced to adopt a defensive posture. This will probably be possibly by the late 1940s. With no outbreak of WWII, whatever major wars happen might not have immediate aftereffects.
The European colonies on Africa last until say the mid 1980s to late 1990s. Germany is given a few colonies back for winning the “Black Sea War/Third Balkan War”, specifically German East Africa and Cameroon. France and Britain, angry for vengeance but not seeking it, try to hold onto their national pride by suppressing independence movements across the world.

无论如何，日本都将在东方崛起。然而，如果只有中日战争而没有二战，那么蒋介石的民族主义最终会粉碎共产主义，使得中国现代化，并使日本人被迫采取防守的姿态。这可能已经到了20世纪40年代末。我们假设的是二战没有爆发，或者无论发生什么重大战争，都不会有什么大的后果。
欧洲在非洲的殖民地将持续到20世纪80年代中期到90年代末。德国通过赢得“黑海战争或第三次巴尔干战争”(德国在东非和喀麦隆)赢得了一些殖民地。法国和英国为了复仇而愤怒，但不敢寻求报复，只是试图通过压制世界各地的独立运动来维持民族自豪感。

Eventually, things turn really ugly in the late 1950s, early 1960s, when the Indian people finally try to seek independence through violence after the British refused to grant them the right to self-determination. British Raj becomes a bloodbath, as the Indian Revolution causes tens of millions of deaths due to widespread famine, massacres and overall violence between the British occupation force supported by Dominion and colonial troops against the Indian rebels covertly backed by the Russian Empire, the Japanese Empire and the Republic of China, all of which seek to weaken Britain.

最后，在20世纪50年代末，60年代初，当印度人民最终试图通过暴力寻求独立的时候，事情变得非常糟糕，因为英国会拒绝给予他们自决的权利。英国的印度统治时期变成了大屠杀,随着印度革命导致数千万人死亡,大面积的饥荒,大屠杀，和暴力统治。由英国支持的殖民军队与印度反对派对战，而印度反对派是由俄罗斯帝国,日本帝国和中华民国秘密支持的，这些国家都想要借此削弱英国。

The ten year long war, unofficially called the Bloody Decade, leads to the destruction of major cities such as Delhi, Hyderabad and Kolkata and concludes with British expulsion when the besieged armies in Bombay/Mumbai and the battered million men armies in Southern India and Bengal agree to withdraw. However, immediately after the British withdrew, Muslims and Hindus began fighting, which led to even more violence as the radicals spread more terror and chaos for another decade.
The Bloody Decade would be a horrifying example of the lengths Europeans would have gone to defend their empires had they still possessed the industrial, financial and military power capable of doing so. It was only the devastating nature of WWII and the horrors of warfare that convinced Europeans that they were in no way better than the “savages” they had been trying to civilize. Without WWI and WWII, expect the decolonization process to be far more bloody.

长达十年的战争，非正式地被称为“血腥的十年”，导致德里、海德拉巴和加尔各答等大城市的毁灭，并以英国的撤退告终。当时，在孟买被包围的英军以及印度南部和孟加拉的百万英军都同意撤军。然而，在英国撤退后，穆斯林和印度教徒立即开始战斗，这导致了更多的暴力，因为激进分子在接下来的十年里制造了更多的恐怖和混乱。
血腥的十年将是一个可怕的例子，说明欧洲人仍然愿意去保卫他们的帝国，他们仍然拥有着恐怖的工业、金融和军事力量。也正因为二战的毁灭性的本质和战争的恐怖，才让欧洲人相信他们没有比教化野蛮人更好的办法了。如果没有一战和二战，预计殖民地独立进程将会更加血腥恐怖。

As for Communism and Fascism? I expect Communism will be the rallying cry of the decolonization movements. Yes, it was to an extent, but the United States was always around to try to counteract some of it.Sometimes sponsor capitalist freedom fighters and pressuring the British and French to cave in sometimes to the independence activists demands. With the U.S. likely not playing a role like the one it did, Communist will probably dominate the post-colonial African and Southeast Asian nations. Europe, North America and East Asia though will remain largely capitalist. Fascism will not be discredited as it was in our modern day era and might be going toe to toe with Democracies in say the South American region for all we know. I think it also might become prent in Southern Europe, but thats just a guess.

至于共产主义和法西斯主义?我认为共产主义将成为殖民地独立运动的战斗口号。是的，这在一定程度上，美国会抵制其中一些，也会赞助其中一些资本主义自由斗士，并迫使英国和法国屈服于这些独立活动人士的要求。由于美国可能不会像它原来那样发挥作用，共产主义可能会主导后殖民时代的非洲和东南亚国家。欧洲、北美和东亚仍将是资本主义国家。法西斯主义不会像在我们现代的时代那样受到怀疑，可能会在南美地区存活下来，并和民主国家对峙。我认为法西斯主义也可能在南欧流行，但这只是猜测。

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What would the world be like if WWI and WWII never happened?::
The history of economic booms and busts of the XX century, long recessions and the Great Depression, would never have happened. There would be crisis, but national/regional, not global.
The US was the main industrial power already in 1914, but it wouldn’t have grown to become the world’s largest financial power; and Europe as a whole would have been much richer, with Franco-British capitals. Also, migration from Europe would be smaller, having demographic consequences for South Africa, Argentina, Australia, New Zealand and Canada.

如果第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战从未发生过，世界会变成什么样子?
上个世纪的经济繁荣和萧条的历史，长期的衰退和大萧条，都不会发生。会有危机，但只限于某个国家和地区，而不是全球。
美国是1914年的主要工业强国，但它不可能成长为世界上最大的金融强国;而欧洲将成为一个整体，将会更加富有，由由英法主导的首都。此外，来自欧洲的移民将会减少，这会对南非、阿根廷、澳大利亚、新西兰和加拿大的人口造成影响。

Also, a more stable world would have meant that the industrial shift from Western Europe and the US towards East Asia would have happened earlier: for example, large textile concerns still existed in the US and Western Europe, together with coal & steel, up until the 1960s and early 1970s. This shift would have happened as early as the 1940s in a world without the Great Wars.
Societal & technological progress would have been much slower: it’s perfectly factible that decolonization and national liberation movements would have started decades later, with Imperial Europe and Monroe US still going strong and imposing their rule over vast regions of Asia & Africa, and all Latin America. Oil, coal & steel still are very large industries; and local newspapers, radio & local broadband TV is still the norm: satellite telecommunications are still more sci-fi than reality.

此外，一个更稳定的世界意味着，西欧和美国向东亚的工业转移将会发生得更早:例如，美国和西欧的大规模纺织，煤炭和钢铁产业，一直持续到20世纪60年代和70年代初。但这种转变在一个没有大战争的世界里，可以早在20世纪40年代就会发生，。
社会和技术进步的速度将会慢得多:在几十年后，殖民地独立和民族解放运动将会开始，这是完全可以实现的。当时，欧洲帝国和美国仍会很强大，并将他们的统治强加于亚洲和非洲的广大地区，以及整个拉丁美洲。石油、煤炭和钢铁仍然是非常大的产业;地方性报纸、广播和宽带电视仍然是常态:卫星通信对于他们还是很科幻的。

Without the negative example of the Nazis, eugenics are a thing: most countries have mass programs of forced sterilization of people ‘who were born to be a burden on the rest’, and institutionalized racism would be still the rule.
A very different world.

没有纳粹的反面例子，“优生学”会存在:大多数国家都会有大规模的强制绝育计划，这些人的出生是对其他人的负担，而制度化的种族主义仍然存在。
一个非常不同的世界。

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Technologically, psychologically, medically, nationally, economically, and other factors towards the wars and to address the question boldly would affect a lot of things that we have today.
Inventions of WWI: 
* Gas Masks were invented during WWI. 
* Traffic Lights. 
* Twinkies 
* Vegetarian Sausages
* Facial Reconstruction in the medical fields. 
* Tampons. 

从技术上、心理学上、医学上、国家层面、经济上以及其他因素上，这些都将影响到我们今天所拥有的许多东西。
第一次世界大战中的发明:
*防毒面具是在一战期间发明的。
*红绿灯。
*夹馅面包
*素食香肠
*在医学领域进行面部复原。
*卫生巾。

To name a few inventions that we currently use that were from WWI.
WWI pioneered the notion of using Airplanes during wartime. The usage of chemical weapons. The development of Satellite communication. Machine guns were designed during this time. U-boats was another weaponized adapt towards the years throughout the war. The X-Ray was made during the war. Tanks were broadly used by a lot of countries during this time due to pushing the tide against entrenched enemies. WWI revolutionized medicine as a whole throughout the world (How World War I Advanced Medicine).

列举一些我们目前使用的来自一战的发明。
一战期间，率先提出了使用飞机的概念。化学武器的使用。卫星通信的发展。在此期间设计了机关枪。u型潜艇也是在战争中使用的武器。x射线是在战争期间制造的。在这段时间里，许多国家都广泛使用坦克，因为这可以有力对抗顽固敌人。一战在全世界掀起了一场医学革命(第一次世界大战的医学)。

After WWII, German scientists were employed into American owned scientific branches for research and scientific discoveries regarding rocket technology, space science, genetics, and other fields of science. Without WWII, programs like United Nations wouldn’t be created under President Roosevelt which further followed under President Harry S. Truman. NASA wouldn’t be created, it was started when the National Socialist German Workers' Party (German: Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei) were working on rocket technology to have an edge of the Allied powers. And the adoption of Wernher von Braun, which is known as the father of rocket technology and space science in the United States in helping to the formation of NASA in the first place.
The Cold War wouldn’t happen. The tensions that lead to the Cold War started in the mist of WWII. The bombing of Japan or Pearl Harbor wouldn’t happen. The reelection of President Roosevelt wouldn’t happen. 

二战后，许多德国科学家受雇于美国的科学分支机构，从事火箭技术、太空科学、遗传学和其他科学领域的研究和科学发现。没有第二次世界大战，像联合国这样的项目就不会在罗斯福总统的领导下建立起来。美国国家航空航天局(NASA)也不会成立，因为它最初是纳粹党建立的，目的是通过火箭技术拥有对同盟国的优势。以及韦纳·冯·布劳恩，他被称为美国火箭技术和太空科学之父，帮助了美国宇航局的成立。
冷战也不会发生。导致冷战的紧张局势始于二战的迷雾。轰炸日本或珍珠港不会发生。罗斯福总统的连任不会发生。

The Russian Revolution wouldn’t fall to the Bolsheviks and the Czar of Russia would still be alive and not executed with his family. The Korean War (1950–53) wouldn’t happen, due to the war was during the Cold War Era. The factors of the Korean War was based on the adoption of the United States trying to keep Communistic ideology from spreading throughout Asia and the world. And Russia’s (Soviet Union at the time) influence with China and North Korea. It would prevent the overall tensions that we have in the Middle East currently. The Russian government invading into the Middle East and the turmoil that was caused and the bad-blood that was caused that we still see today. China wouldn’t be Communist as it is right now. Russia would still be under a monarchy. Joseph Stalin’s reign would be not enforced if the Russian Revolution of 1917 was enacted, without Germany’s influence with Vladimir Lenin on April 16, 1917.
So, to summarizes the numerous points that I landed out. Without WWI and WWII, the world would still have tensions between nations and hatred. And equally it would subtract a lot of things that were invented or developed that we still use today as a whole. There is both positive and negative factors that would happen without both of the World Wars. And countless lives would be saved.

俄国的革命也不会落到布尔什维克的手里，俄国沙皇仍然活着，不会和他的家人一起被处死。朝鲜战争(1950-53)不会发生，因为这战争是在冷战时期。朝鲜战争的原因是因为美国是为了试图阻止共产主义意识形态在亚洲和世界上的传播。因为当时的俄罗斯(苏联)对中国和朝鲜有影响。这也阻止我们目前在中东地区的紧张局势。因为俄罗斯政府入侵了中东地区，造成了动乱，造成了我们今天仍然看到的不良流血事件。中国不会像现在这样是共产主义国家。俄罗斯仍将处于君主制之下。1917年4月16日，如果没有德国对列宁的影响，斯大林的统治也不会发生。
所以，总结一下我的很多观点。没有一战和二战，世界仍然会有国家之间仍然会有仇恨和紧张关系。同样地，它会减去许多我们今天仍在使用的很多的发明和发现的东西。没有两次世界大战，都有积极和消极的因素。无数人的生命将会被拯救。

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Empires and Kingdoms still exist and are the primary form of government for most nations of the world.
Colonialism still exists, although it isn’t as brutal as it was before, as the concept of human rights and civil rights create more equal empires where native Europeans and Colonial subjects have mostly similar rights.
The British Empire holds the title of “The Greatest Empire Of The World” as it is the largest and strongest of the European powers, The Empire weakened and lost much of its colonies and wealth due to the world wars, so without the wars it is likely that the Empire would remain as the “sole superpower” of the world, like America is today.

帝国和王国仍然存在，将是世界上大多数国家政府的主要形式。
殖民主义仍然存在，尽管它并不会像原来那样残忍，因为人权和公民权利的概念创造了更平等的帝国，在那里，土着欧洲人和殖民地人民享有基本相同的权利。
大英帝国将拥有称号“世界最伟大的帝国”,因为它是世界上最大和最强的欧洲列强,没有世界大战导致的帝国的削弱,以及失去的殖民地和财富。英国应该很可能仍将是世界上的“唯一超级大国”,就像今天的美国。

America never experiences a boom which leads to the USA becoming a great superpower, the US wold mostly remain isolationist and would stay out of most world affairs, it would still however, hold a strong relationship with the Empire
Christianity becomes a much more prominent religion as the European colonists spread it even further in Asia and Africa.
The people of the world would be more collectivist rather than being more individualist.
Technology isn’t as advanced as it is today, things like the Nuclear bomb wouldn’t exist.
Warfare would be more old-styled, instead of the modern-day gritty urban warfare, war would be more “Gentlemanly”.

美国将不会经历繁荣，也不会成为一个超级大国，美国将更多的保持孤立主义，并置身于大多数世界事务之外，但它仍将与其它帝国保持着牢固的关系。
随着欧洲殖民者在亚洲和非洲进一步传播宗教，基督教成为一种更为突出的宗教。
世界上的人会更注重集体主义，而不是更加个人主义。
技术并不像今天这样先进，像核弹这样的东西根本不存在。
战争将更加老派，而不是像现代的城市战争，战争将会更加“绅士”。