东南亚哪些国家在未来5年将拥有更大的潜力？ [美国媒体]

What countries in Southeast Asia will have more potential in the next 5 years?

东南亚哪些国家在未来 5 年将拥有更大的潜力？


Oliver Woods, lived in Singapore
All countries in the region will have massive potential in all sorts of ways: from Malaysia’s growth as a leader in Islamic products & services (think halal food, sukuk (Islamic bonds), tourism) to Vietnam’s rapid growth in terms of people moving out of poverty and shift away from a natural resource-oriented economy to one powered by tourism, manufacturing and tech.
But I believe Indonesia, largely because of their patterns of urbanisation, has the most unique potential from a social & economic perspective:
Indonesia’s cities are growing very fast: at a rate of around 4% per year. Rapid urbanisation is creating huge potential in cities for business and technology. A great example of this is Go-JEK, which is a competitor to regional ride-sharing behemoth Grab. However, Go-JEK is uniquely adapted to the daily life of city-dwelling Indonesians: fast, efficient and cheap at getting people around (both motorbikes & cars), buying food/products and getting them delivered to your door by friendly, young bikers. They’ve been able to build a whole eco-system of on-demand/delivery services beyond the typical ride-sharer services, going as far as providing mobile masseuses, beauticians & pharmaceutical delivery. The opportunity to cater to busy, upwardly mobile folks in Jakarta, Medan and other major cities is endless.

该地区的所有国家都将在各种方面拥有巨大的潜力：从马来西亚作为伊斯兰产品和服务(如清真食品、伊斯兰债券、旅游业)的领先者的增长，到越南人民摆脱贫困并从以自然资源为导向的经济转向以旅游、制造业和科技为动力的经济的快速增长。
但我认为，印尼在很大程度上是因为它们的城市化模式，从社会和经济的角度来看，它具有最独特的潜力：

印尼的城市正以每年约4%的速度快速增长。快速的城市化正在为城市的商业和科技创造带来巨大的潜力。这方面的一个很好的例子是Go-JEK，它是是地区共乘租车巨头Grab的竞争对手，但Go-JEK适应了独特地印尼城市居民的日常生活：以快速、高效、便宜吸引人们 ( 包括摩托车和汽车 )，购买食品/产品，并让友好的年轻骑手把它们送到你家门口，他们已经能够建立一个完整的生态系统，除了传统的搭便车服务外，还提供移动按摩师、美容师和药物递送服务，为雅加达、棉兰和其他大城市的繁忙、流动的人们提供服务的机会是无穷无尽的。

Governance has significantly improved in recent years, particularly at the city-level. The country’s reforming president fondly known as Jokowi (his actual name is Joko Widodo) did spectacular work both as Mayor of Surakata and then as Governor of Jakarta. He was a positive populist figure, focusing heavily on helping the poor and dispossessed through educational, health & housing initiatives. He also leveled out the playing field for civil servants, introducing more performance-focused criteria to fight against unfair or crony appointments. His successor Ahok, a Chinese Christian, continued his good work with a strong focus on cleaning up dirty rivers and storm drains, support for the working poor and public transport (unfortunately, Ahok is now in jail for blasphemy charges). Other municipal officials leading really positive changes in their communities include Risma, the (female) Mayor of Surabaya (Tri Rismaharini, Mayor of Surabaya City, Indonesia | GovInsider) - so it’s not just limited to Jakarta.

近年来，印尼治理水平显着提高，尤其是在城市层面，对这个国家进行改革的总统被亲切地称为Jokowi(他的真名是JokoWidodo)，他任素拉卡塔市长和雅加达省长时工作非常出色，他是一个积极的民粹主义人物，并通过教育、医疗和住房计划来改造社会，他非常专注于帮助穷人和被剥夺财产的人，他还为公务员创造了公平的竞争环境，引入了更注重绩效的标准，以打击不公平或任人唯亲的任命。

他的继任者阿霍克(Ahok)是一名华裔基督徒，他继续做着出色的工作，专注于清理肮脏的河流和排水沟，支持贫困劳动者和公共交通(不幸的是，阿霍克现在因亵渎罪而入狱 )，其他领导社会积极变革的官员还包括Surabaya市(女性)市长Risma ，因此这些不仅仅局限于雅加达。

Indonesians are some of the friendliest people in the region, even when doing business (at least at a large firm private sector level). This one is not data-driven but my own personal experience. Similar to the Philippines, I found business was easy to conduct with both locals and foreigners residing there, problems were relatively easy to solve collectively and there was a genuine openness to working with non-local firms (this is in radical contrast to the resistance you can quietly face in other countries around South-East Asia, though is rarely talked about online or addressed publicly).
The moves being made to strengthen Indonesia’s maritime sovereignty, amidst efforts to fight against illegal fishing, people smuggling, etc. may have major dividends when it comes to the country’s potential as a trans-shipment hub. There is still a long way to go on this front, but if positive progress continues on economic & political reform (and in five years a lot can happen in Indonesia!), the ocean and all of its benefits - from shipping & logistics to tourism & fishing - may see another multiplier effect for the country’s port towns & cities. You can read more about this here: 3 Years Later, Where Is Indonesia's'Global Maritime Fulcrum'?

印尼人是该地区最友好的人之一，即使是在做生意时也是如此(至少在大公司私营部门层面)。这没有数据支持，而是我个人的经验。与菲律宾类似，我发现与当地人和居住在那里的外国人做生意都很容易，问题比较容易集中解决，而且与非本地公司合作有着真正的开放性(  这与东南亚其他国家悄然面对阻力形成鲜明对比，尽管很少在网上谈论或公开谈论 )。

在努力打击非法捕鱼、偷渡等活动的同时，加强印尼海洋主权的举措可能会对该国作为转运中心的潜力产生重大好处。在这方面还有很长的路要走，但如果在经济和政治改革方面继续取得积极进展 ( 五年的事件印度尼西亚会发生很多事情！)，海洋及其所有利益--从航运和物流到旅游和渔业--可能会为该国的港口城镇带来另一个倍增效应，你可以在这里读到更多关于这个问题的文章：《3年后，印度尼西亚的“全球海洋支点”在哪里？》

Roy Yu, Businessman (2008-present)
Answered Mar 25
I would say both Indonesia and Vietnam.
Vietnam
As a sinosphere country, Vietnam seems like a miniature version of China. Huge young population with hard-working no-nonsense attitude and entrepreneurial spirit. Some cons are high corruption and inefficient government.
Indonesia
Indonesia is politically stable and has large natural resources. Arguably one of the best governments in Asia today under Jokowi. Things are improving in many ways and hopefully it will be consistent.
Some cons are lots of idiotic religious rednecks, high corruption although less than Vietnam, uncompetitive workforce, lack of world-class infrastructure outside the capital and weak currency.

我觉得是印度尼西亚和越南。
越南：
作为一个中华文化圈国家，越南似乎是中国的缩影，有着庞大的年轻人口，工作勤奋，态度严肃，有创业精神，其缺点是腐败严重和政府效率低下。

印度尼西亚：
印度尼西亚政治稳定，自然资源丰富。在Jokowi的领导下，其政府可以说是亚洲最好的政府之一，印尼很多方面都在改善，希望能保持下去。
一些保守反对者大多是愚蠢的宗教狂热分子，印尼腐败程度也很高 ( 尽管不如越南) ，劳动力缺乏竞争力，首都以外缺乏世界级的基础设施，以及弱势的货币。

Reza Aditya Pratama
Indonesia i think,
As the largest economy in ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), a member of the G20 and one of the few economies experiencing a growth rate greater than 5%, Indonesia has the potential to play a pivotal role in the regional and global recovery.
While the economic spirit of Indonesia proved resilient during the global financial crisis, More generally, Indonesia has a rich, diverse culture that adds to its vibrancy at the same time it poses additional challenges. The archipelago nation is a mosaic, with more than 700 languages spoken by 254 million people spread out over 17,000 islands, there a a lot of potential for travel and tourism.
One of Indonesia’s biggest strengths is its demographic profile. It’s the fourth-most populous country in the world with an average age of just 29, which translates into a robust labor force.
Maybe, Indos still lack behind Singapore or Malaysia. But in future, i think indonesia could be "China of South East Asia"

我想是印度尼西亚，
作为东南亚国家联盟( 东盟 )最大的经济体、20国集团成员和少数几个增长率超过5%的经济体之一，印度尼西亚有潜力在区域和全球复苏中发挥关键作用。
印尼的经济精神在全球金融危机期间表现得很有韧性，总的来说，印度尼西亚有着丰富、多样的文化，这在增加其活力的同时，也带来了更多的挑战。这个群岛国家是一个马赛克拼图式的国家，有超过700种语言，被2.54亿人使用，分布在17000多个岛屿上，旅游业非常有潜力。

印尼最大的优势之一就是它的人口结构，它是世界上人口第四多的国家，平均年龄只有29岁，这意味着它拥有很强的劳动力优势。
也许，印尼仍然落后于新加坡或马来西亚，但在未来，我认为印尼可以成为“ 东南亚的中国 ”。


Amoy Young
Answered Sat
My vote goes to Viet Nam, which I've visited twice, regarding her ECONOMIC potential that's to be unleashed on basis of her major STRENGTHS as follows ~
Her economic dynamism as one of main beneficiaries of tranfer of labor intensive manufacturings amid rising costs in China the world powerhouse.
Her young, well-educated n level-headed human resources of over 90 million ~ Vietnamese look unusually "sharp" among their SE Asian peers which are often stereotyped as "lethargic" or "laid-back".
Additionally the upcoming CPTPP would be quite an impetus to VN economy.
According to a recent study by the World Bank about the economic impacts of CPTPP on Vietnam, the country’s GDP can grow by 3.5 percent by 2030, assuming there is an increase in production.
Under CPTPP, imports and exports are predicted to grow by 5.3 and 4.2 percent respectively. If productivity increases, the gain could be much higher at 7.6 and 6.9 percent for imports and exports respectively.

我投越南，我已经去过越南两次了，她的经济潜力是基于她的主要优势而得以释放的，具体如下~
她的经济活力源于在中国这个世界强国的成本不断上升的情况下，越南是劳动力密集型制造业转移的主要受益者之一。
这个国家很年轻，拥有9千多万受过良好教育的越南人，他们在通常被刻板地认为是“毫无生气”或“懒散的”的东南亚同龄人中显得异常“机灵”。

此外，即将到来的CPTPP将对越南经济起到相当大的推动作用。
根据世界银行最近关于跨太平洋伙伴关系协定对越南经济影响的一项研究，假定生产有所增加，该国国内生产总值到2030年会增长3.5%。
根据CPTPP的预测，进出口将分别增长5.3%和4.2%。如果生产率提高，进出口的增幅可能会更高，分别为7.6%和6.9%。

译注：全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（简称 CPTPP，Comprehensive Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership），是美国退出跨太平洋伙伴关系协定后的新名字，签署 CPTPP 的国家有日本、加拿大、澳大利亚、智利、新西兰、新加坡、文莱、马来西亚、越南、墨西哥和秘鲁。

Wirawan Winarto, Indonesian. Engineer at Microsoft, Samsung, & Intel
Vietnam.
The rise of Vietnam is not just admirable, but also scary. When I see Vietnamese cities today, it reminds me of Chinese cities ten to fifteen years ago. Compared to Indonesia and the Philippines, Vietnam seems to be better prepared and they are just getting started. Their current condition I think it is because they were quite unlucky that they experienced so many wars in the past.
Watch out for Vietnam, says Indonesian ambassador
Vietnam economy grows at best rate in a decade



I think Indonesia and the Philippines will be the next after Vietnam.

越南。
越南的崛起不但令人钦佩，而且令人生畏。当我看到今天的越南城市，它让我想起了十到十五年前的中国城市，与印尼和菲律宾相比，越南似乎准备得更充分，而且他们才刚刚起步。他们之所以处于现在的状况，我想是因为他们很不走运，他们在过去经历了这么多战争。
链接：《 印尼大使说，要警惕越南 》
链接：《越南经济以十年来最快的速度增长》
另外，我认为印尼和菲律宾将是继越南之后的下一个。

Anonymous
Answered 23h ago
This region will be an important growth contributor to world economy along with China, South Asia and Africa. Why?
1 a large and generally young population
2 several countries still have a long way to go before they become mature economies
3 improving political situations and embracing new economic policy e.g. from communism to more market-oriented
Having said that I don’t expect any country being head and shoulders above the rest although smaller countries like Laos, Cambodia and East Timor may be disadvantaged compared with larger peers.

这一地区将与中国、南亚和非洲一道，成为世界经济增长的重要贡献者，为什么呢？
1、人口众多，总体上年轻。
2、几个国家要成为成熟的经济体还有很长的路要走。
3、改善政治形势，实行新的经济政策，例如从共产主义到更面向市场的政策。
虽然老挝、柬埔寨和东帝汶等较小的国家与较大的国家相比可能处于不利地位，我不认为任何一个国家会比其他国家更重要。

Raymond Greiner, lived in Vietnam
Answered Thu
Vietnam because of the attitude toward education and the resulting quality of education. Vietnamese students work as hard as Chinese students and have parents who are as concerned about their children’s education as any Chinese parents. Unfortunately Vietnam is being weighed down by an inefficient and corrupt government. Eventually education will force beneficial changes on the government but five years from now I see that continuing to be a problem.

越南。
因为对教育的态度和由此产生的高质量教育。越南学生和中国学生一样努力学习，他们的父母也像中国父母一样关心孩子的教育，不幸的是，越南正被一个低效和腐败的政府所压垮，最终，教育将迫使政府进行有益的改革，但五年后，我认为仍然是一个问题。

C. Michel de Wilde, a multiracial Indonesian citizen: Chinese, Dutch, Srilankan, Indonesian
Answered Thu
Vietnam. they are the hardest working people in southeast asia. indonesia has a potential, but it is grossly inefficient, and burdened with bureaucratic inefficiency, and the people are very laid back compared to the vietnamese.

越南。他们是东南亚最勤劳的人。印尼有潜力，但效率非常低下，官僚主义无能，与越南人相比，印尼人民的生活非常闲散。

Alan Cheung, a suit that doesn't like to wear suit
In my experience so far, it's about the population.
thus, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.  While many would argue that the political environment is ill suited, but if you have a long term, it would be fine as the population would generate demand and demand would need be satifisied.

根据我目前的经验，这与人口相关。
因此，潜力大的会是印度尼西亚、马来西亚和泰国，虽然许多人会认为政治环境不匹配，但如果你有长期的政策，那将会很好，因为人口会产生需求，而需求需要得到满足。

Ngoc Diep Hoang, former Worked and Lived in Vietnam for More Than 20 Years
Answered Sat
Potentials are only potentials, they could only be any value to these countries when they are realised.
While Indonesia and Vietnam seem to be the top two, unfortunately, to realise the key potentials they must break out from the current deadlocks that have wasted these countries (and most of SEA countries) for many decades.
Let's point out a few fundamental deadlocks.
Democracy is not existed in these countries, especially with Vietnam. HR potentials would continue to be a waste. Equal opportunity for potential success would also continue to be a struggle and waste.
Corruptions and people's submissions to the corrupted rulers will continue, especially in Vietnam.
Beside, these potentials are facing the worse obstructions from the Chinese Communist Party's oppressions in different aspects.
Therefore, the matter of which countries in SEA have more POTENTIAL is not that important.

潜力只是潜力，只有当这些国家认识到潜力时，它们才能成为这些国家的价值所在。
不幸的是，尽管印尼和越南似乎是实现其重要潜力的前两名，但它们必须打破几十年来浪费这些国家(以及大多数东南亚国家) 潜力的死锁。
让我们指出一些基本的死锁。
这些国家不存在民主，特别是越南。人力资源潜力将继续是一种浪费，获得潜在成功的平等机会也将继续是一种斗争和浪费。
腐败和人民对腐败统治者的顺从将继续下去，特别是在越南。
此外，这些潜力还面临着来自中国共产党不同方面的压制，这是更大的障碍。
因此，哪个东南亚国家更有潜力的问题并不那么重要。