中国背后”捅刀”高通：提出购买更多半导体 [美国媒体]

China offers to buy more U.S. semiconductors as it mulls stabbing Qualcomm in the back

中国背后”捅刀”高通：提出购买更多半导体
【日期】2018年3月26日



In the deepening trade negotiations between China and the U.S., the bargaining chips are quite literally chips.

在中美贸易谈判不断深化的过程中，讨价还价的筹码毫无疑问是芯片。

According to multiplereports, China has offered to increase the percentage of semiconductor chips it buys from American sources, replacing offerings from South Korea and Taiwan, if the two countries can come to an economic agreement on moving their trade relationship forward. The hope is that the redirected purchases could lower the trade deficit between China and the U.S., which hit an all-time high last year of $375 billion. China is the largest consumer of semiconductors in the world, so its trade decisions have an outsized impact on the industry and its players.

据多方报道，中国表示，若推动两国贸易关系能达成经济协议，中国将提高从美国进口的比例，以取代自韩国和台湾采购的半导体芯片。希望定向购买能降低中美之间的贸易逆差，去年中美贸易逆差达到了历史最高水平，3750亿美元。中国是世界上最大的半导体消费国，其贸易决策对半导体行业及其参与者有巨大的影响。

These negotiations are a response to the Trump administration’s announcement last Thursday that it would place a tariff on roughly $60 billion worth of Chinese goods, with a presumed focus on high-tech goods. China, still playing catch up from an earlier declared tariff on steel and aluminum, announced on Friday tariffs on $3 billion worth of goods, which covered goods like pork, apples, and steel pipe.

这些谈判是对特朗普政府上周四宣布对价值约600亿美元的中国商品征收关税的回应，据推测，该关税的重点是高科技产品。对早先（美国）提高（进口自中国的）钢铁和铝的关税，中国也给予的回应，上周五宣布对价值30亿美元的（来自美国的）商品征收关税，包括猪肉、苹果和钢管等商品。

The tariff on steel pipes is a reciprocal response to the original steel tariffs, but why would China choose pork and apples? Well, the states that produce those two goods also happen to be high-priority states in the U.S. presidential election system. The largest pork producing state by a long shot is Iowa, which happens to be the first nominating contest for the presidency. The same is true of apples: among the top 10 states are Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Ohio, all of which are critically important for Trump’s reelection campaign.

钢管征收关税显然是回应钢铁加税，但中国为什么要选择下手猪肉和苹果呢？因为，这两种商品产地所在的州恰好也是美国总统选举制度中的高度优先州。从长远来看，最大的猪肉生产州是爱荷华州，这恰好是第一总统候选人提名州。苹果所在州也是如此：密歇根州、宾夕法尼亚州、弗吉尼亚州和俄亥俄州都是排前十名的州，这些州对特朗普的连任至关重要。

Clever, but obvious. But there is another interesting card for China to play in these complex negotiations, and that is Qualcomm’s purchase of NXP Semiconductors.

显然这招很高明。但在这些复杂的谈判中，中国还有一张有趣的牌，那就是高通预备收购的NXP半导体。

I have talked a lot about Qualcomm and the complicated strategic position it finds itself in. Qualcomm’s corporate strategy has been to invest in growing markets outside smartphones, since the smartphone market has saturated and future growth is believed to be more limited. NXP is a market leader in hot areas like automative, growth that could be quite accretive to its acquirer. The leadership of Qualcomm has made the purchase of NXP an absolute must win for the future of the company, particularly after it fended off Broadcom’s hostile takeover.

我已经谈了很多关于高通和它身处的复杂战略位置。高通的企业战略一直是投资于除智能手机以外的增长型市场，因为智能手机市场被认为已经饱和，且未来的增长前景有限。而NXP在自动化、增长等热门领域是市场领先者，这对其收购方来说可能会带来相当大的增长前景。高通的领导者将收购NXP之举定位为该公司未来的必胜法宝，尤其是在它抵御了Broadcom的敌意收购之后。

There’s just one problem. The NXP transaction has received regulatory approval in all jurisdictions except one: China.

只有一个问题。NXP交易在所有司法管辖区都得到了监管机构的批准，除中国外。

According to Bloomberg, China’s Ministry of Commerce, which has jurisdiction over the Qualcomm-NXP decision, is under heavy pressure to increase protections for local semiconductor players, or even more aggressively, outright block the deal. A decision from China has been expected for some time now, and Qualcomm was forced to extend its tender offer to April 2nd to accommodate China’s widening timeline.

布隆伯格表示，对高通-NXP收购案拥有管辖权的中国商务部正面临巨大压力，其被要求加大对本土半导体企业的保护力度，甚至更积极地彻底阻止这笔交易。中国的该项决定了已经持续一段时间了，高通被迫将收购要约推迟至4月2日，以适应中国不断延长的时间表。

Such a move wouldn’t be unprecedented given that China has taken Qualcomm to task before. In early 2015, Qualcomm signed an agreement with Chinese antitrust regulators to pay a $975 million fine and also to lower royalty rates for local manufacturers. Royalties are a uniquely critical part of Qualcomm’s revenue mix, and given that China is the world’s largest semiconductor market, the deal foreshadowed the challenges Qualcomm was going to face from a government determined to stand up its own semiconductor industry.

鉴于中国此前曾对高通提出过批评，这样的举动不会是史无前例的。2015年初，高通与中国反垄断监管机构签署了一项协议，将支付9.75亿美元的罚款，并降低当地制造商的专利使用费。特许使用费是高通收购组合中独一无二的关键部分，鉴于中国是全球最大的半导体市场，这笔交易预示着高通将面临一个决心维护自己的半导体产业政府的巨大挑战。

China’s government has made building a world-class semiconductor industry a major national priority, investing billions of dollars and using a variety of industrial policy tools like competition policy to protect, nurture, and develop its indigenous chip industry.

中国政府已将建设世界一流的半导体产业作为国家的首要任务，投资数十亿美元，并利用竞争政策等多种产业政策工具来保护、培育和发展本土芯片产业。

The collapse of the NXP deal could be a remarkably strong blow to Qualcomm. It would represent the collapse of almost two years of work to prepare for the transaction, forcing the company to deeply consider its future. It would also raise questions about what exactly it can do to grow, given that NXP is one of a vanishing few number of companies that could drive major value for Qualcomm shareholders. Even if it found other potential transactions, China could theoretically intervene in those deals as well.

NXP交易的失败对高通来说可能是一个巨大的打击。这将意味着为了这笔交易做准备花费的近两年工作全部白费，同时迫使公司得重新深入规划自己的未来。考虑到NXP是极少数几家能够为高通股东带来主要价值的公司之一，这也会让人质疑高通究竟还能做些什么来实现增长。即使发现有了其他潜在交易，理论上中国也还是可以干预这些交易。

That’s a terrible negotiation position to be in with China. Little wonder then that last week’s shareholder meeting led to remarkably low support for the election of its board members. The current CEO of Qualcomm, Steve Mollenkopf, failed to get a majority of support from shareholders, a highly unusual situation given that board members of publicly-traded U.S. companies are often reelected with vote totals exceeding dictators in third-world countries. Many shareholders voted against the slate — which ran unopposed — as a protest over Qualcomm’s handling of the Broadcom takeover among many other grievances.

和中国的谈判处于这种地位是很可怕的。难怪上周的股东大会导致其董事会成员的选举支持率极低。高通现任首席执行官史蒂夫·莫连科夫未能获得多数股东的支持，这是一种极不寻常的情况，因为美国上市公司的董事会成员再次当选票往往超过第三世界国家独裁者的总票数。许多股东投票反对候选人名单一一没有竞争对手（哈哈哈），以抗议高通对博通收购的处理以及其他许多不满。

Buying more U.S. semiconductors then, while simultaneously knocking Qualcomm, looks like an amazing win-win for China right now. China’s import of semiconductors stays the same, since it is merely replacing U.S. parts for other Asian suppliers, while at the same time, its decision with Qualcomm could hurt America’s sole company fighting Huawei for dominance in 5G wireless technologies.

在购买更多美国半导体的同时，高通也被敲打，这对中国来说似乎是一场完美的双赢。中国的半导体进口保持不变，因为它只是用其他亚洲供应商替换美国零部件，同时，它与高通的决定可能会损害美国唯一一家能与华为争夺5G无线技术霸主地位的公司。

Ultimately, I predict the NXP transaction to be approved. For all of the trade negotiations and complex strategies going on here, China needs to be seen as a place open to doing business, now more than ever as its trade practices are placed in the spotlight. However, that doesn’t mean it won’t exact serious concessions from Qualcomm, which could further erode the company’s revenues and standing in China.

我预测NXP公司的交易最终会获得批准。就在这里进行的所有贸易谈判和复杂的战略而言，中国需要被视为一个贸易地，现在比以往任何时候都更加开放，因为它的贸易惯例被置于聚光灯下。然而，这并不意味着高通会做出认真的让步，（让步）可能会进一步影响该公司的收入和在中国的地位。

For a president who came to power arguing that America needed to get smart about negotiations, maybe it is time to look at how the Chinese government is playing its hand. They are not just playing their cards well, but also securing better cards all the time from other players around the table. Little wonder then that the chips in the center increasingly seem to be heading in its direction.

对于一个当权的总统来说，美国需要在谈判上变得聪明起来，也许现在是时候看看中国政府是如何发挥作用的。他们不仅仅是打好自己的牌，而且还能从同桌的其他成员那里得到更好的牌。筹码的重心越来越朝向它也就不足为奇了。