对于中国关税伊利诺斯州的农民表示：“噩梦成真” [美国媒体]

rian Duncan, an Illinois hog farmer, had hoped the tough trade talk in recent weeks between President Donald Trump and China amounted to saber-rattling.

伊利诺斯州的猪农安•邓肯曾希望，唐纳德•特朗普总统和中国之间最近几周的激烈贸易谈判只是互相威胁而已。

On Monday, he discovered otherwise, when the Chinese government imposed tariffs on 128 U.S. products, including pork and various fruits, in retaliation for Trump’s previously announced tariffs on steel and aluminum.

但在周一，他发现，中国开始对包括猪肉和各种水果在内的128种美国产品征收关税，为了报复特朗普此前宣布对钢铁和铝征收的关税。

“We were hoping it was just brinkmanship and cooler heads would prevail. But instead, some of our worst fears seem to be coming true,” said Duncan, who’s also vice president of the Illinois Farm Bureau. “This is significant, real and serious for rural America.”

​“我们希望这只是边缘政策，冷静的头脑会占领高地。但是，我们担心的一些最坏情况似乎正在成为现实。“邓肯-伊利诺斯州农业局副局长这样说道“这对美国农村来说意义重大、真实且严肃。”



The tariffs could test Trump’s popularity among farmers, many of whom voted for him and have since cheered his rolling back of environmental regulations. Tax reform was also well-received by many farmers, Duncan said, but the mounting trade war with China has them “darned worried.”

这些关税可能考验特朗普在农民中的支持率，许多农民投票支持他，并为他废除环保法而欢呼。邓肯说，税收改革也受到许多农民的欢迎，但与中国的贸易战让他们“感到忧愁”。

In Illinois, pork producers that have increasingly come to depend on the Chinese export market, particularly for cuts of pork less desirable to American consumers, will be hit hard by the Chinese tariff of 25 percent on pork. Buyers in China could turn to other countries as a result. The trade restrictions also could have a ripple effect on corn and soybeans, the two largest crops in the state, as both are used in pork production, according to the farm bureau.

在伊利诺斯州，越来越依赖中国出口市场的猪肉生产商，尤其是对美国消费者不太满意的猪肉，将受到中国25%关税的沉重打击。因此，中国的买家可能会转向其他国家。根据农业局的数据，贸易限制还可能对玉米和大豆产生连锁反应，因为这两种作物都被用作于养猪。

And there’s also the looming fear that China eventually could impose a tariff on soybeans.

还有一种隐约的担心，即中国最终可能会对大豆征收关税。

“We’re definitely concerned. … In the long run, we want to see the free movement of goods,” said Austin Rincker, a fourth-generation farmer of corn and soybeans in Moweaqua, a central Illinois village just south of Decatur.

“我们对此肯定关心...从长远来看，我们希望看到商品自由流动”奥斯丁·林克说，他是位于迪阿图尔南部的伊利诺斯州中部村庄莫维奎的第四代玉米和大豆农民。

One out of every 3 soybeans grown in the U.S. is exported to China, largely to feed a rapidly growing hog industry for a booming middle class in China, said Rincker, who’s also a board member of the Illinois Soybean Association.

林克说，在美国种植的每3颗大豆中就有一颗出口到中国，这主要是为了满足中国快速增长的中产阶级的需求。

That amounted to more than $14 billion in soybean exports to China in 2016, according to the American Soybean Association.

根据美国大豆协会的数据，2016年大豆对中国的出口总额超过140亿美元。

Illinois was the top soybean-producing state in 2017, with about $3 billion in exports, according to estimates from the Illinois Soybean Association. China is the largest export market for whole soybeans.

伊利诺斯州是2017年大豆产量最高的州，据伊利诺伊州大豆协会估计，其出口额约为30亿美元。中国是全大豆最大的出口市场。

Pork exports to China are smaller, but growing. Nationally, more than $660 million in pork — including “variety meats” like ears, hooves and organ meat — was exported to China last year, according to Tamara Nelsen, senior commodities director for the state farm bureau. Because those products are sold to smaller-budget, price-sensitive Chinese consumers, the tariffs could hurt demand and therefore pricing, Nelsen said.

对中国的猪肉出口规模较小，但正在增长。国家农业局高级大宗商品主管塔玛拉•尼尔森表示，从全国范围来看，去年中国出口到中国的猪肉超过6.6亿美元，其中包括“各种肉类”，如耳朵、蹄和各类器官。尼尔森说，由于这些产品被卖给了预算更少，对价格敏感的中国消费者，关税导致的定价提高对需求的影响可能更加严重。

“It’s a bit like taxing rice in Indonesia,” Nelsen said.

“这有点像在印尼对大米征税，”尼尔森说。

This trade war comes at a tough time for U.S. farmers, who have seen net farm income decline by 50 percent since 2013.

这场贸易战对美国农民来说是一个艰难的时刻。自2013年以来，美国农民的净农业收入下降了有一半。

In the past few weeks, the value of hogs has declined by about $20 a head on the commodities market, said Duncan, who also grows corn and soybeans on about 4,000 acres in Polo, Ill., about 115 miles west of Chicago.

邓肯说，过去几周，猪肉价格在大宗商品市场上下跌了约20美元。而他在伊利诺斯州马球市（芝加哥以西约115公里处）种植了约4000英亩土地的玉米和大豆。

Illinois pork producers have worked hard to build the export market for pork, Duncan said. The industry now supports about 10,000 jobs in the state.

伊利诺斯州的猪肉生产商一直在努力建设猪肉出口市场。该行业目前在该州支持约1万个工作岗位。

Beyond the Chinese tariffs, Duncan said he’s concerned about the fate of the North American Free Trade Agreement, which Trump has vowed to renegotiate. He said he would rather see the Trump administration try to improve trade with China and other countries with more dialogue and working through the World Trade Organization.

除了中国的关税，邓肯表示他对《北美自由贸易协定》的命运感到担忧，特朗普誓言要重新谈判。他说，他宁愿看到特朗普政府努力改善与中国和其他国家的贸易，并通过世界贸易组织进行更多对话和工作。


[–]steelhips 388 指标 20小时前 
The biggest issue over Trump's trade war will be the ramifications long after his administration.
China still needs all these commodities and everyone, Australia, Canada and the EU will take this opportunity. If they are happy with those alternatives they won't switch back to US farmers after Trump goes.

川普贸易战最大的问题是对下届政府的后续影响。
中国仍需要那些商品，所以他们会找澳大利亚、加拿大和欧盟购买。如果他们合作愉快的话，就算川普下台了他们也不愿回头去买美国商品了。

[–]BertNewtonsFury 258 指标 20小时前* 
And then repubs will constantly blame the next administration (probably democrats) .. and we will never finish hearing how Dems are terrible for the economy...

而大众们则会责怪下届政府（很可能是民主党）..而那时喷民主党经济不作为的声音就会不绝于耳...

[–]_NamelessOne_ 173 指标 20小时前* 
I actually think that won't work millennials are now the largest voter base. We aren't easily fooled by political bs. We also typically don't vote against our own interests. I mean what you predict could realistically happen, I just think my generation is going to change that mold.....if we continue to be not lazy and be active like in the special elections since Alabama

我认为那实际上不会发生因为那时选民的年龄层主要是千禧一代。我们没那么容易被那些政治鬼话所蒙骗，也不会违背我们的利益去投票。我想说的是虽然你的预测可能会真实发生，但我认为我们新一代的选民正在改变现状....从阿拉巴马州参议员特别选举结果可以看出他们对待选举更积极更有力。

[–]butrektblue 125 指标 20小时前 
You have hope, and that is admirable!

你的期待不错，使人钦佩！

[–]NeonHowler 34 指标 19小时前 
I wish I was half that hopeful.

作为一名00后要是能达到你一半的期待就好了。

[–]Aeon2303 39 指标 19小时前 
What is it about the millennial generation that makes us "not easily fooled by political bs" more than a previous generation? All I see is new means (the internet) for distributing the same misinformation.

什么叫千禧一代不会被政治鬼话所蒙骗？我看这些（网上的）00后只会散布虚假谣言而已。

[–]BubblesForBrains 24 指标 17小时前 
Your the first generation to have a harder time financially than previous. Harder time purchasing homes, paying off debt etc. Wages haven't kept up with the cost of living. But you aren't the largest voting block. In fact younger voters stay home from local elections. You gotta vote even in smaller elections to keep your.

千禧一代是经济大不如前的一代。买日用品、偿还债务等变得更加困难，工资并没有随着生活成本而提高。而且也不会是选民最多的一代，事实上他们大多数都宅家里而不会出去投票，更别说那种参议员小投票了。

[–]WildGooseCarolinian 18 指标 14小时前 
Millennials are the largest voting bloc, we just aren’t actually showing up. If millennial voting rates matched that of boomers, the size of that cohort would swamp the trumpites.

千禧一代是最大的选民群体只是现在还不到时间而已，如果他们的投票率和当时的生育潮匹配，所形成的选民潮完全可以淹没现在的川普支持者。

[–]Griff2wenty3 4 指标 9小时前* 
I’m a millennial and yes it’s definitely true we are more aware and fed up. However gen Z below us is even more tuned in and informed on political issues and they are PISSED. This midterm election coming up will be the first time I think millennials really go out and vote in huge numbers and change will happen but even more change is going to occur when gen z is able to vote in the next 5-10 years

我是一名00后，是的我们越来越认识到参选的重要性并投身其中。然而老一辈90后们比我们更加成熟也更加了解如今的政治问题，并且对此大为不满。此次的中期选举我认为是我们千禧一代崭露头角的机会，但是现在能带来更多改变的是90后们，在未来的五到十年里都会是这样。

[–]schnoodly 7 指标 19小时前 
Moreso, at an exhausting rate. The whole thing about subconscious effects of TV commercials years ago is at least tenfold now. It's quite terrifying, and there's not much that an individual can do about it- we're humans, easily influenced by design. The only thing that can stop one think-tank of groupthink is another, which is susceptible to it's own subliminal manipulations.

更可怕的是，如今电视里潜移默化的洗脑比十年前多了十倍不止，这是真的恐怖，而且个人对此毫无办法还更容易被影响。这种洗脑的唯一解决方法就是让另一个更厉害的洗脑团体和它对着洗。

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