日本为什么大举投资印度的基建项目？ [美国媒体]

Why is Japan pumping so much money into India for its infrastructure projects?

日本为什么大举投资印度的基建项目？




1、Balaji Viswanathan，班加罗尔，机器人公司CEO，印度出生印度思想，UpdatedOct 30, 2015
When I went to buy my first car, the dealergave me a 0% loan for 6 years. That ensured that he got my business that day[selling the car] and for a few years to come [maintenance, supplies] and eventhe potential to sell the next car a few years down the road.
​
当初我去买自己第一辆车的时候，经销商给我提供了6年的无息贷款。这就确保了他能在那天（卖车）以及之后一些年（保养、用品）做到我的生意，甚至几年之后卖给我下一辆车的可能性。

Seller financing is a prominent businessstrategy where the seller closes the deal by offering sweet financing. A lot ofmajor businesses do that. And so do many countries. Japan does that, China doesthat and so does India on a smaller scale [prompting questions like why Indiaprovides aid to Nepal etc].

卖方融资是一种重要的商业策略，通过提供带甜头的融资来达成交易。许多重大交易中都会这么做。而许多国家也会这么做。日本这么做，中国这么做，印度也以较小的规模这么做（会引出一些类似为什么印度会给尼泊尔提供援助的问题）。
（译注：卖方融资(Seller financing)也叫推迟支付，是指卖方以取得固定的收购者的未来偿付义务的承诺。）

In India, Japan and China are fighting todominate the world's hottest rail market. China was leading in the game offinishing India's first bullet train that will get a lot of publicity andcopycat projects. However, China didn't finance the deal. Japan entered themarket with a easy financing deal and pocketed the deal. In this, it was notreally different from my car dealer who gave a 0% loan to me to pocket businessfrom a rival.

在印度，日本和中国正为统治世界上最热门的铁路市场而比拼。中国因完工了印度的首列高速列车而取得领先，这将带来大量公众声望和类似的项目。然而，中国没有为这项交易提供融资。日本则以一手简单的融资交易打入市场，并将该交易收入囊中。该案例，和我的汽车经销商给我提供零贷款利率以击败竞争对手做成生意没什么真正的区别。

To build the bullet train, you need a lotof things. Some of them will be made in India and the rest will be made inJapan. In the contract, Japan has said that 30% of the things has to be boughtfrom Japan. There will be a large number of exports from Japan to build thebullet train. That is a lot of jobs. Once the line is built, there will bemaintenance and adding new train carriages. More exports and more jobs.

为了建造高速列车，你需要很多部件。它们中的一部分将由印度制造，其余部分将由日本制造。日本在合约中，要求30%的部件必须从日本购买。为了做成高速列车，日本将会出口大量货物。那意味着（日本得到）很多工作机会。一旦铁路线建成，将会需要维护保养以及添加新的列车车厢。带来更多的出口和更多的工作机会。

The Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train is just astarting point. If this works, India will be building advanced trains all overthe country. And trains are just one among dozens of new things India will make- new homes, new cities, new factories. Trillions of dollars are at stake here.Like a Venture Capitalist, Japan is trying to enter the market early andcapture it before others come in.

孟买到艾哈迈达巴德的高铁只是一个起点。如果这项交易取得成功，印度将在全国范围内建造先进列车。而列车只是印度将要建造的几十种新事物中的一样：新房、新城、新工厂。有数万亿的美元押在这里。如同风险投资家那样，日本正试图尽早打入市场，并在其他人进入之前占领它。
（译注：艾哈迈达巴德（Ahmedabad）为古吉拉特邦最大的城市，即为郑和下西洋时的阿拨巴丹）

At the end of the day, it is business. Justas your shopkeeper provides you cheap loans to buy TV, phones and otherappliances, countries provide you loans to buy their technology and products.Do you think the Audi dealer below is providing you charity by providing a 0%loan? No. Neither does Japan.

说到底，这是生意。就如同店主为你提供便宜的贷款来购买电视、电话和其他器具，国家为你提供贷款来购买他们的技术和产品。你觉得下图中的奥迪经销商给你提供无息贷款是在做慈善么？不。日本也不是。


 
2、Sunny Mewati 北大留过学，经济史 UpdatedOct 28, 2015
Japan's investment spree in India should beseen within the broader context of what Japan did and still does for east Asia.

日本投资印度的狂热应当在更大的背景中看待，即日本过去乃至现在对东亚做的事。

Firstly, Japan has always been a resourceand labor starved but capital rich country. For example, Japanese firms alonehave a cash stockpile of over $2 trillion. It has been a long standing Japaneseeconomic policy to invest this capital in emerging economies to generatebusinesses for Japanese firms. Japan is a highly developed (low returns tocapital) but aging country (labor shortage). It's economy has been stagnant forover two decades but if you visit Japan, it does not seem if the country hasbeen in recession for so long. Unemployment is low and living standards arehigh. It is because Japanese capital has one of the best returns of any othercountry through Japan's aggressive investments in high risk but high returnemerging markets. During the 1960's, they invested heavily on Korea and Taiwanand Hong Kong through both direct investment and institutionalized lendingthrough the Asian Development Bank. In the 1980's and 90's, Japan along withTaiwan led foreign investment into China with a lot of resource forinfrastructure deals.

首先，一直以来日本是一个资源和劳动力匮乏但资本丰裕的国家。例如，仅日本企业一项就拥有超过2万亿美元的现金储备。将这些资本投资于新兴经济体以为日本企业创造业务，一直以来都是日本的长期经济政策。日本是一个高度发达（低资本收益率）却走向老龄化的国家（劳动力短缺）。其经济已经停滞不前达二十多年，但如你访问日本就会发现，这个国家看上去不像是已经衰退了这么长的时间。失业率很低而生活水平很高。这都是因为，日本通过对高风险同时高回报的新兴市场的积极投资，使得日资相比其他任何国家拥有最上佳的回报率。在1960年代，他们既通过直接投资又经由亚洲开发银行的制度化贷款，在韩国、台湾和香港大量投资。在1980 和1990年代，日本和台湾一道，引领海外投资进入中国，为基建交易提供了许多财源。

Furthermore, Japan's internationalinfluence has taken a hit especially in Africa and East Asia with the emergenceof China. China executed to perfection, the textbook on gaining economicinfluence written by Japan. It aggressively invested Africa and has largelybeen successful in filling Japan's shoes in east Asia. It established parallelfinancial institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.Chinese firms have regularly outmaneuvered their Japanese counterparts in eastAsia in bagging infrastructure contracts such as building rail projects inThailand and Indonesia. In business jargon, China has disrupted Japan'sotherwise perfect business model of gaining high returns on capital abroad tomaintain the domestic economy.

此外随着中国的冒头，日本的国际影响力受到打击，尤其在非洲和东亚地区。由日本谱写的攫取经济影响力的教科书，是中国将其实践到了完美。中国大举投资非洲，并在东亚地区大体上成功地替代了日本的地位。它建立了类似的金融机构，例如亚投行。在东亚，中国公司经常能在猎取基建合同方面策略性地击败他们的日本同行，例如泰国和印尼的铁路建造项目。用商业术语来说，中国瓦解了日本原本完美的商业模式，即以海外资本获取高回报来维持国内经济。

Against this backdrop, India is the bestdestination. The only country where Japan still has an upper hand and which hasa desire for, but also a near visceral aversion to Chinese investments. Chineseinvestments are viewed with an undercurrent of hostility by India. The Chineseare not very keen on investing in India either. 'Hot money flows' from westernnations that fueled most of India's growth for the past 15 years are slowlydrying up. Multilateral financing has a lot of strings attached. For India, theeasiest source of capital is Japan, a country viewed favorably by most Indians.A large scale investment from China will always raise the banter of'compromising national security', concessions granted to say the United Statesor Europe would likely be dubbed 'exploitation' because of our socialist pastbut Japan is different. Because it is perceived as an old friend and ally, thegovernment faces the least political resistance in granting Japan concessionsin return for capital and expertise.

为扭转这种不利形势，印度是最好的出路。这是唯一一个日本仍占上风的国家，而且这个国家对来自中国的投资虽然渴望，却也有着一种近乎发自内心的憎恶。印度在看待中国投资的时候，带着一种潜藏的敌意。而中国对于投资印度也不太热衷。过去15年中推动印度大部分经济增长的西方“热钱”正在慢慢枯竭。多边融资带有许多附加条件。对印度来说，最便捷的资本来源便是日本，该国为大部分印度人赞许。来自中国数额巨大的投资总是会引发“危害国家安全”的奚落，而同意给予譬如说美国或欧洲特许权，又可能会因为我们社会主义的过去而被授予“剥削”的大帽子，但日本是不同的。由于它被看作一个老朋友乃至盟国，政府在对日本让步以换取资金和专业技术时，面临的政治阻力会最小。   

Last, interest on Japanese soft loans isvery low, in the range of 0.25% that even 30% offset for Japanese firms doesnot equal the return of simple American T-bills. There is a clear geopoliticaldimension to Japan's investment as well but unlike most commentators, I don'tthink it has anything to do with the 'dominant narrative' of containing China.Japan and India are natural allies in that India's need for militarymodernization is aligned with Shinzo Abe's plan to revive Japanese economy witharms exports. Even with Narendra Modi's defense indegenization push, India willremain a major importer of weapons for a long time and hence a largeprospective market for Japanese defense exports.

最后，日本的软性贷款利率非常低，在0.25%的范围内，就算给日本公司30%的补偿也比不上美国国库券的收益。日本的投资也带着很明显的地缘政治考量，但和大多数答主不同，我认为这和遏制中国的“主旋律”扯不上任何关系。由于印度需要军事现代化与安倍用武器出口复兴日本经济的计划匹配，日本和印度是天然的盟友。就算莫迪在推进国防本土化，印度在相当长的时间内仍会是一个主要的武器进口国，因此对日本国防出口来说，是一个大有前景的市场。

In conclusion, Japan's investment in Indiais a function of push and pull. Japan is facing stiff competition from Chinesecapital in East Asia and Africa but not in India enhancing India'sattractiveness. For India, conventional sources of capital are slowly dryingup.

总之，日本对印投资可以说是你情我愿。日本在东亚和非洲面临着中国资本的激烈竞争，但在印度不是如此，这就加大了印度的吸引力。对印度来说，传统的资本来源正慢慢枯竭。

3、Rajeev Ranjan，企业家，新德里，化妆品出口Answered Sep 1, 2014
Japan has a natural ally in India. Bothshare a shared history owing to Buddhism. Apart from that, India is known to beone nation devoid of hegemonic attitude. Japan has a huge ageing population,while India has a huge young population. In last two decades Indian economy hasgrown by over 200%, while Japan has grown by a little over 50%.

日本是印度的天然盟友。归功于佛教，两国有一段共同历史。除此以外，印度这个国家以没有霸权姿态而闻名。日本有大量老龄化的人口，而印度有大量年轻人。在过去的二十年中，印度经济已经成长了超过200%，而日本只成长了50%多一点。

Japan always has a tiff with China over land issues and other issues, and sohas India. It makes them a natural ally to contain China. 

日本在岛屿和其他议题上一直与中国有争端，而印度也是如此。这使他们成为遏制中国的天然盟友。

Moreover Japan needs rare earth for defence production, for which it depends onunreliable China which had stopped export to Japan a few years ago. India caneasily supply to them. 

此外，日本的国防生产需要稀土，为此它依赖于靠不住的中国，中国已经在几年前停止向日本出口稀土。而印度能很容易地为他们提供。

Japan has a lot of technological developments and innovations which it can sellto India, a huge market. For e.g. Bullet trains, Nuclear technologies. Hugeeconomies like China, US already have it. So it makes sense for Japan to investin India.

日本有大量的技术进步和技术创新可以卖给印度，印度可是一个大市场。比如说高铁和核能技术。像中美那样的巨型经济体，已经拥有这些技术了。所以日本对印度投资是很合乎情理的。

4、Aditya Iyer，内容开发人员，古吉拉特邦 Answered Aug 23, 2017
India is at a very critical juncture rightnow. From the view point of our economy we are moving at real pace when wecompare ourselves to China Or Japan or infact any other country in the world.

印度正处在一个非常关键的节骨眼上。从我们经济的角度看来，当和中国、日本以及世界上其他国家相比时，我们正以真正的高速前进着。

But wait a minute lets take a halt at thispoint. Now let me tell you India is a very large country. We have millions ofpeople who are poor or probably dont have jobs. Apart from this we don’t have agreat literacy rate.

但等一下。现在让我告诉你印度是一个非常大的国家。我们有数百万的穷人或是可能的失业者。除此以外，我们的识字率也不怎么样。

Our Honorable Prime Minister Mr NarendraModi is trying to pull in huge MNC’s to come in and produce products here inIndia at subsidized rates. Now just imagine these companis coming to ourcountry.

我们那可怕的莫迪总理正设法引进那些大型跨国公司，并能在印度制造产品时获得补贴。现在只须想象下这些进到我们国家的公司们。

All these big companies have already madethemselves huge manufacturing plants all around the world but here in India,the rates at which they will get labour and other support is way more cheaperas compared to other countries.

所有这些大公司已经在世界各地建了巨型制造厂，但在印度这里，他们获得劳动力和其他保障的价格和其他国家相比要低得多。

Infrastructure wise i wont say we lack behind,but probably we don’t have the capability to build all these things at our own.

造东西的智慧我们并不落后，但很可能我们没有能力仅靠我们自己造出所有这些东西。

India has a very bright future, when welook at our population we can see that we have the largest youth brigade in theword which is capable of taking this country to great heights.

印度有着非常光明的未来，如果看看人口结构就能发现，我们国家拥有世界上最大的青年梯队，这一点能把这个国家推向伟大的高度。

Japan wants to invest in our country todraw the attention of each and every person residing in our country to theirthinking and their methodologies. The technologies which they posses can begreat help to our country as well.

日本想要投资我国，是为了把我国土地上每一个居民的注意力吸引到他们的思想和方法论那里，他们掌握的技术也能对我们国家产生巨大的帮助。

They are sensing an opportunity whichprobably USA and Russia aren’t realizing. Various billionaire firms from Japanand China are betting big on India Companies.

他们察觉到一个美俄可能没有意识到的好机会。各式各样来自日本和中国的亿万富翁公司正把赌注押在印度公司身上。

The demand as far our market is concernedis very huge and if a company is successful in our country then there is nolooking back.

我们的市场需求是巨大的，如果一家公司在我国取得了成功，那么它是不会回头的。

Thus to capitalize on this fact Japan ispumping in so much money into the Indian Economy.

因此为了利用这个现实，日本才如此大规模地为印度经济注资。

5、Viraj Tiwari, 孟买，印度戈德瑞集团职员AnsweredNov 2, 2015
1. Japan is pumping money in India bczIndia is a shining star in the world economy at this point of time . a boomingeconomy means good returns on invested capital.

日本会大举投资印度，是因为此时此刻的印度是世界经济中闪亮的明星。一个繁荣发展的经济体意味着上佳的投资回报率。

2.There are a few more reasons to it like japan is seeing negative inflation (I.efall in prices due to low demand) that means if japaness invest in their owncountry they will end up with a reduced capital or very low returns .

对此还有更多的理由，比如日本面临通货紧缩（由于需求低迷导致价格指数下降），那意味着如果日本在他们本国投资，会导致资本缩水或是极低的回报率。

3.Being a developed country there are notmuch opportunity to invest while is India scope of investment is far fromimaginable.

作为一个发达国家，是没有太多的投资机会的，而印度可以投资的范围是无法想象的。

We can call it a win win situation as theywill be getting returns and benefits in terms of exports , jobs etc and we aregetting the much needed capital to revolutionize infra of India to propelgrowth.

我们可以认为这是一个双赢的局，因为他们能通过出口和工作机会得到回报和利润，而我们能得到急需的资金来革新印度的基础设施建设以推动经济增长。

6、Tony Lee 国人AnsweredOct 27, 2015
I looked at every answer, and most of them(if not every) mentioned China, and most of them interpret it as a leverage toagainst China. Hmm...is rise of China that fearful, that almost every one isworried about it?

每个答案我都看了，大部分（如果不是每个）都提及了中国，而且大部分将其解读为一种对抗中国的手段。嗯，，，中国崛起就那么让每个人害怕么？以至于几乎每个人都在担忧这件事。

Investing a developing country with hugemarket and great potential in economy is always a wise decision for investors.Not only Japan, but also Europe and US, and even China, the de facto enemy ofIndia, all invest on India. This is like what happened in 1980s and 1990s inChina. I'd rather see this as a business phenomena than interpreting it fromgeopolitical point of view. Another example is that, since Philippines does nothave good relation with China either, Japan should take advantage of that. Butthe investment from Japan in Philippines is not that much compared with India.Philippines is less worthwhile for investing compared with India.

在一个有着巨大的市场和经济发展潜力的发展中国家投资，对投资者来说通常都是一个明智的选择。不只是日本，欧美甚至中国也是如此，印度所有真正的敌人都在印度投资。这就类似1980和1990年代在中国发生的那样。我更愿意将其看成一种商业现象而不会用地缘政治视角去解读。另一个例子是，鉴于菲律宾和中国的关系闹僵，日本本应从中渔利。但和印度相比，来自日本的对菲投资并没有很多。相比印度，投资菲律宾不太合算。

7、Zoya Goldman,美国人，犹太复国主义者 AnsweredSep 4, 2014
What every investor wants is money, andthat is what Japan is hoping to get in return for investing in India. I thinkit is a very sensible bet.

每个投资者想要的都是钱，这便是日本希望从投资印度中得来的回报。我认为如此押宝是合乎情理的。

Being one of the BRIC countries, India is avery hot investment target with an amazing development potential. Japan, on theother hand, has a very limited growth rate (placing it in the bottom 30%)Market Potential Index (MPI) - 2014

作为金砖国家之一，印度是一个炙手可热的投资对象，蕴含着惊人的发展潜力。而另一方面，根据2014年的市场潜力指数（MPI），日本的经济增长率太低了（位居后30%）。

8、Probaha Roy 加尔各答，MBA（HR）Answered Sep6, 2014
Japan investing money in India is not likethat they are doing it out of any courtesy.If there had not been any profit tothem they would not have done that

日本在印度投钱可不是出于什么对印度的恩惠。如果没有油水他们是不会那么干的。

India is a country of the second highestpopulation in the world.Which means this is potentially a huge market for anycompany from any nation.Japanese companies can earn a huge profit here whichwill eventually increase the income of the Japanese Govt by the means of tax.
India is the home of millions of people whoare technically skilled and possess brilliant analytical minds and who can comecheap to the companies.
By maintaining good relations withIndia,Japan tries to keep China under pressure with whom they are not havingthe best of relations now a days.

印度是世界人口第二多的国家。这就意味着对于来自任何国家的任何公司，这都是一个潜在的巨大市场。日本公司在这里会获利颇丰，这终将通过税收增加日本政府的收入。
印度是数百万技术人才和拥有优秀分析头脑人才的家园，而且他们对这些公司来说是很便宜的。
通过和印度搞好关系，日本设法用这个如今与中国不存在良好关系的国家来向中国施加压力。