中国会对美国发起“珍珠港式的”袭击吗？ [美国媒体]

每人一小段，翻译我也行！
每日新素材，等你来认领！ http://www.ltaaa.com/translation/ 

-------------译者：小花猫兽性大发-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------



If Imperial Japan’s past turns out to be a Rising China’s prologue, Beijing could well order a Pearl Harbor-style attack on America, possibly within a decade.  Potential targets range from American aircraft carriers in the Taiwan Strait and bombers on the runways of Okinawa and Guam to the military satellite network serving as the eyes and ears of the U.S. high command.  Even civilian infrastructure like America’s electricity grid may be at risk.

如果大日本帝国的历史只算是中国崛起的序曲的话，那么北京很可能在十年内也会对美国发动一场珍珠港式的袭击。在台湾海峡附近的美国航空母舰，冲绳、关岛机场跑道上的轰炸机和作为美国最高指挥部耳目的军事卫星网络设施，甚至是民用基础设施比如美国的电网，都可能面临被攻击的危险。


-------------译者：小花猫兽性大发-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

chaostar • 23 minutes ago
America bases around China, not inverse.
America ships cruise around China, not inverse.
America declares to "return Asia"/"Asia rebalance", not China.
America involves wars all over the world, not China.
Now this article is even worrying about China might strike America first.
 
是美国基地群包围着中国，而非反之
是美国军舰巡游包围中国，而非反之
是美国宣布“重返亚洲/亚洲再平衡”战略，而不是中国
是美国在插足全世界所有的战争，而不是中国
而现在这文章居然在担心中国会首先攻击美国~！

The Way • 13 minutes ago
Hmm...Let me see, China invade Perl harbor...

嗯……劳资等着看，中国入侵珍珠港……

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Edward Olson • 17 minutes ago
Was Richard ( I can't use his nickname - I always forget that ) Cheney the ghostwriter for this article? The author paints
pretty much as bleak a picture for the USA vis a vis China as could be
possible.
Maybe the title should be "55 Chinese weapons/circumstances America should fear".

这篇文章是Richard Cheney（注：迪克切尼，美国前副总统） 代笔写的吗？作者对美中对抗描绘出一种令人信服的黯淡前景，不如把文章标题改成“55种美国要担心的中国武器/中国境况”。

If our navy is 10x as powerful as China's is now, maybe a worst case
scenario is for it to be only 3x as powerful 10 years from now.
In the long run, it makes much more sense for Russia to be aligned with us, rather than China.
And would China risk its total nuclear annihilation? MAD has worked for over 60 years.
Almost anything can conceivably happen.

如果我们的海军现在比中国海军强10倍，那么也许这十年内最坏的情况就是缩水为比中国海军强3倍。长久来看，俄国比中国更有可能与我们利益一致。而且要问中国是否会冒着核毁灭的风险冒然行动，考虑到在哪里疯狂的事情持续了超过60年，发生什么事都不会让人太吃惊。

I could be diagnosed with cancer, diabetes, leporsy and ebola tomorrow,
but I think I'll leave worst case scenarios to the editors of "The
National Interest".

我明天可能会被确诊患有癌症、腹泻、麻风或者埃博拉，但是我想最坏的消息还是由《国家利益》的编辑来公布吧。

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Serge Krieger • 24 minutes ago
Frankly, I do believe it might come to this. It is the way Asian powers operate. Japan surprised USA in Pearl Harbor and Russia in Port Arthur. China surprised USSR in 1969.
However, USA must be aware that modern China resources and industry wise is not Japan circa 1940. China also got allies and keeping good relations with Russia would ensure China resources flow would not be disrupted. .

坦白说，我确实相信可能如此。这是亚洲政权运作的方式。日本在珍珠港与亚瑟港让美国与俄国搞了突然袭击。中国也在1969年对苏联来了一手（珍宝岛事件）。
然而，美国必须留心的是，在资源和工业能力方面，现代中国可不是1940年代的日本。中国有着不少盟友的同时也与俄国保持着良好的关系。这使得中国的资源流不被中断得到了保证。

Bankotsu  Serge Krieger • 15 minutes ago
Germany also surprised USSR in 1941.
 
德国也在1941年突然袭击了苏联。
 
Justanotherviewer • 25 minutes ago
Another doomsday article by Navarro, China is not Japan and Russia is not Germany as they are both stronger economically and financially and more importantly are more rational state actors.
This article is just another fear mongering attempt.

又一篇来出自Navarro手笔的末日论文章。中国不是日本，俄罗斯也并非德国。这两个有着强大的经济与财政能力的国家行动会更加趋于理性。
这文章只是再一次地尝试散播恐惧。

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Sinbad2 • 27 minutes ago
Pearl Harbor was a terrible mistake, Japan thought it would scare America off, and the US would remove its blockade on Japan. All it did was make the US angry.
I think most intelligent people would realize that token attacks against the US would not work.
China would obviously throw everything it had at the US in the hope it could kill every American in one blow.

偷袭珍珠港是一个可怕的错误，日本认为这样来一下能够恐吓美国，美国就解除对日本的封锁。它的所作所为只能让美国上火。
我想那些最聪明的人都会意识到对美国发起的象征性攻击是没有作用的。所以中国为了一举将所有美国人消灭，会把自己所有的武器扔向美国。

Bankotsu • 31 minutes ago
I see no need for "pearl harbour" style strike. Maybe China can try "U.S. embassy" style strike or "turkish" style strike.
I think chinese strike with chinese characteristics is the best style.
We all have our own styles, there is no need to blindly copy others.

我看不需要什么偷袭珍珠港式袭击。也许中国可以试试“美国大使馆式”袭击或者“土耳其”式袭击。
我觉得具有中国特色的中国式袭击是最好的方式。
我们都有自己的特有方式，不需要盲目复制别人的。（层主真是萌萌哒。。。）

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Vevoli • 43 minutes ago
Okay, lots of generalizations of little merit.
But Japan of present is regressing to its autarchic past by trading less and less, with its geriatric population unable to compete in the digital age.
China may want to be a hegemon, but it is more likely to lose badly to more determined and focused adversaries.

 好吧，许多都是些没有干货的归纳。
但是，当下由于贸易的萎缩，日本的老龄化人口也无法在数字化时代产生竞争力，日本正在回归成它原来的专制国家模式。
中国可能想成为一个霸主，但是她更可能会被更坚定和专注的对手打败。
 
Bankotsu  Vevoli • 42 minutes ago
Who are the "more determined and focused adversaries"?

  谁是“更坚定和专注的对手”？

Vevoli  Bankotsu • 41 minutes ago
All of China's neighbors.

 中国所有的邻国。
 
Bankotsu  Vevoli • 41 minutes ago
lol.

 呵呵。

Bankotsu • 44 minutes ago
I wonder what North Korea would do.
I don't think they will launch a "pearl harbour" style strike on U.S.
North Korea will launch nuclear first strike.

我想知道朝鲜会怎么做？
我不认为朝鲜人会对美国发动一次“珍珠港”式的袭击。
朝鲜会首先发动核袭击。

-------------译者：魔哥598543214-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

TDog • an hour ago
The major failing of this article: China is not Japan. I suppose it's an easy mistake to make if one is of the mindset that "all Asians look alike", but for those of us with a bit more of a capacity to engage in nuance and discern entirely different cultures from one another, this article is about as academic as a discourse on who would win: Superman or the Hulk?

 本文的不足之处在于：中国不是日本，我想认为所有亚洲人都一样这个思维定式是很明显错误的，我们中若有人对这两个国家的文化的细微之处有所了解的话，这篇文章就像在讨论超人和绿巨人谁会赢？

Furthermore, classifying China as "aggressive" ignores a few things, namely that its neighbors have been no less "aggressive" and that there is a world of difference between being assertive and aggressive. China is being assertive and that we've grown somewhat spoiled and entitled doesn't make their actions wrong or hostile so much as it means we've grown thinner skins and louder mouths.

 更进一步，说中国具有侵略性大概忽略了一些事，中国的邻国也没少有侵略性，并且有侵略性和自信是完全两码事。或许是我们强权久了，中国是在变的自信，但这并不意味着他们做的就是错误或有敌意的，这就像我们肤色浅，说话大声一样，这很正常。

To answer the question "will China launch a Pearl Harbor style attack", the answer is likely not. China has been very clear about its intentions and has thus far not launched a single campaign without ample warning - that most people ignore these warnings is once again no fault of China's. The US was warned in 1950, India was warned in 1962, and Vietnam was given warning in 1979. There is no tradition of sneak attacks and given what China knows about World War II, the chances that they would imitate Japan are remote. Pearl Harbor got Japan two nukes and decades of occupation... China's not going to risk that.

“中国会对美国发起‘珍珠港式的’袭击吗？”，这问题的答案是不大可能。中国意图明确，动手前会提醒勿谓言之不预，不能把人们忽略这些警告也算到中国头上。美国在1950年被提醒过，印度在1962年被提醒过，越南在1979年也被提醒过。中国没有偷袭的传统，对二战也很清楚，他们可不会步日本后尘，偷袭珍珠港使日本吃了两颗蛋蛋，并且现在还被占领着。中国可不会冒这个险。

-------------译者：清源magitkk-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Bankotsu • an hour ago
'Would China Launch a "Pearl Harbor-Style" Strike on America?'
How about a "U.S. style" embassy strike? I don't see why not? Or maybe a "turkish" style strike on U.S. jets?
Fresh evidence that NATO's bombing of Chinese embassy in Belgrade was deliberate
https://www.wsws.org/en/articl...

”中国会对美国进行珍珠港式的偷袭吗？“
那为什么不问中国会来一个美国式的使馆袭击？莫名其妙啊？为什么不说中国对美国飞机来个土耳其式的击落呢？
对了，有最新证据表明，中国作为中立国其驻南斯拉夫的使馆是北约故意轰炸的。
https://www.wsws.org/en/articl...

 -------------译者：小花猫兽性大发-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Spectator of Geopolitics • an hour ago
Wrong comparison / analogy by the author.

 这是作者错误的比较/类比

During WW II, although Japan's Navy was quite sizeable, surpassed the British Royal Navy by far, quite a match to the USN in the beginning, Japan could not inflict serious damage to the continental US.

二战期间，尽管日本海军的规模超过了英国皇家海军，与战争初期的美国海军不相上下，日本依然没有能力对美国本土造成严重伤害。

For Japan, it launched tens of thousands of balloons, some landed on the continental US, with only a single fatal incident, killing about half a dozen people of one family.

尽管日本对美国施放了成千上万的气球炸弹，有一些落在美国大陆，但只造成一次伤亡事件，有一个家庭的6名成员遇难。 

If a nuclear power with ICBMs and SLBMs attacks only the outposts such as Guam, or Hawaii, it is significant warning sign, in the meantime, such destruction could prevent the US from using those bases as launch pads. The war is still limited phase with room for further negotiation.

 而如果携带核弹头的洲际弹道导弹和潜射弹道导弹只是攻击了像关岛、夏威夷这样的前哨站点，那这是严重的警告信号，这样的攻击会使美国在此期间无法使用那些设施作为发射基地。战争依然处于有限制的阶段仍留有谈判的余地。

Also from this website: http://nationalinterest.org/fe...
Failing to embrace the new realities leads to far more dangerous alternatives. The worst outcome would be a new bipolarity: the emergence of a grouping around China and Russia against the United States, with its European and Asian allies. In such a world, U.S. capacity would be stretched to the breaking point. Washington couldn’t manage an escalation of tensions with Russia and China at a time of increased conflict in the Middle East.

不能及时应对新情况将导致更危险的局面。最坏的结果是变成又一个两极世界：出现一个以中、俄为核心的集团对抗美欧及其亚洲盟友。在这样一个世界里，美国的能力将被拉扯至濒临崩溃的极限。在中东冲突不断加剧的情况下，华府甚至无法应对与中俄紧张关系的升级。

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Bankotsu • an hour ago
"While Imperial Japan and Hitler Germany entered into an uneasy but expedient alliance, there is today a far more comfortable authoritarian bond growing between Xi Jinping’s China and Putin’s Russia."
U.S.-Japan axis to destroy China's rise and secure U.S. hegemony sounds more likely to me.

既然天皇的日本和希特勒的德国能有一个不稳定的临时结盟，今天在习近平的中国和普京的德国之间也能结成一个比前者更如意的独裁联盟。

在我看来美日形成轴心破坏中国的崛起并维持美国霸主地位更有可能。
Bankotsu • an hour ago
"The Coming War Between America and China will tell the unreported story of a new US strategic policy known as 'the pivot to Asia'.
The US is preparing for a new provocative cold war that has every chance of becoming a hot war.
Washington has begun to move its main missile and naval forces into the Asia-Pacific in order to surround and 'confront' China, whose extraordinary economic rise in recent years is regarded in Washington as a threat to American dominance..."

即将到来的美中之战将揭露这个不能曝光的称为＂重返亚太”的美国新策略政策的故事。
美国正准备发起一场新的挑衅性的冷战，而这场冷战非常有可能变成一场热战
华盛顿开始往太平洋调整它主要的导弹和海军力量，为了包围和对抗近年来因为非同寻常的经济发展而被视为对美国霸权威胁的中国。
http://thecomingwarmovie.com/

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Dodo • an hour ago
Way too much imagination. Perhaps we need some jokes to keep us relax.

真是想太多了。也许我们需要来点玩笑放松一下。
 
Chinese leaders have not ready to commit suicide. Neither China nor US leaders want nuclear wars for some people's ideology.

 中国领导人还没准备自杀呢。中国和美国的领导人都不会为了某些人的意识形态就开打核战。

Real push from China is RMB internationalization. Its successful would take away US' mean of support its huge military structure by taking Fed's printing press away. Military strength is only used to deter US thus US has no way to ask for a Plaza Accord like it did to Japan.

 中国真心想推进的是人民币国际化。一旦这个计划成功了，这样美联储可以失去了肆意印钞权利，而由这种特权所支撑的大规模美国军事力量的体系就结束了。而中国的军事力量只用来制止美国，这样美国就没有办法像要求日本那样要求中国签订广场协议了。

Bankotsu  Dodo • an hour ago
If U.S. asks for Plaza accord to destroy chinese economy, then China should try a "pearl harbour" style strike.

如果美国想要用广场协议摧毁中国经济的话，中国应该试试“偷袭珍珠港”方式的袭击。

-------------译者：围观已一年-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Bankotsu • an hour ago
If U.S. blockades China or tries hardcore containment to cripple China's rise, then yes, I think China would strike to destroy all U.S. bases and assets in the region.

如果美国封锁中国，或者试着通过包围的办法来阻碍中国的崛起的话我想中国会袭击破坏区域内所有的美国基地和资产。
 
It would be foolish not to do so. U.S. also struck the chinese embassy in Yugoslavia in a " pearl harbour" style strike.

傻瓜才不做呢。美国也曾以“偷袭珍珠港”的方式炸掉中国在南斯拉夫的大使馆。

FedUpWithWelfareStates • 2 hours ago
China would be considered a Rank Amateur if they did not, which means that America had better start forward-thinking & re-organize NOT just OUR military, but our base & deployed forces footprint...

如果中国不这么做的话真是地道的门外汉，也就是说美国最好具有长远眼光，不仅要重组我们军队，还要重组基地和部署地面部队。