经济学人：悲剧性的分裂 [美国媒体]

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Britain and the EU

英国和欧盟

A tragic split

悲剧性的分裂

How to minimise the damage ofBritain’s senseless, self-inflicted blow

如何将英国这一无意义的自我打击造成的伤害最小化
 

HOW quickly the unthinkable became the irreversible. A year agofew people imagined that the legions of Britons who love to whinge about theEuropean Union—silly regulations, bloated budgets and pompous bureaucrats—wouldactually vote to leave the club of countries that buy nearly half of Britain’sexports. Yet, by the early hours of June 24th, it was clear that votershad ignored the warnings of economists, allies and their own government and,after more than four decades in the EU, were about to step boldly into the unknown.

从难以想象到覆水难收，事情的发展是多么地迅速。一年前几乎没有人能想到，大量喜欢抱怨欧盟规章制度愚蠢、预算庞大、充斥浮华官僚主义等种种问题的英国人，竟然真的会投票退出这个占英国出口近一半的国家俱乐部。然而，在6月24日凌晨，选民们显然已经忽略了来自经济学家、盟国以及本国政府的警告，在加入欧盟四十余年后，即将大胆地踏入未知。

The tumbling of the pound to 30-year lows offered a taste ofwhat is to come. As confidence plunges, Britain may well dip into recession. Apermanently less vibrant economy means fewer jobs, lower tax receipts and,eventually, extra austerity. The result will also shake a fragile worldeconomy. Scots, most of whom voted to Remain, may now be keener to break freeof the United Kingdom, as they nearly did in 2014. Across the Channel,Eurosceptics such as the French National Front will see Britain’s flounce-outas encouragement. The EU, an institution that has helped keep the peace inEurope for half a century, has suffered a grievous blow.

英镑汇率跌至30年来的低点似是山雨来临前的风。随着信心暴跌，英国可能随时陷入经济衰退。经济长期缺乏活力意味着更少的工作岗位、更少的税收以及最终导致经济进一步紧缩。这个后果也将动摇脆弱的世界经济。多数投票支持留欧的苏格兰人现在可能也更热衷于从英国独立出去，就像他们险些在2014年做到的那样。在海峡的另一边，诸如法国民族阵线这种欧洲统一怀疑论者，也将把英国的突然退出视作一种激励。而欧盟这个帮助维持欧洲和睦长达半世纪之久的机构，则遭受了沉重打击。

Managing the aftermath, which saw thecountry split by age, class and geography, will need political dexterity in theshort run; in the long run it may require a redrawing of traditional politicalbattle-lines and even subnational boundaries. There will be a long period ofharmful uncertainty. Nobody knows when Britain will leave the EU or on whatterms. But amid Brexiteers’ jubilation and Remain’s recriminations, twoquestions stand out: what does the vote mean for Britain and Europe? And whatcomes next?

要应对国家从年龄、阶层到地域划分的各类人群的观点分裂，短期内需要灵活的政治手腕；而长期可能就需要对传统政治战线甚至地方政府边界进行重绘。这将会带来一段长期的有害的不确定局面。没人知道英国会何时或以何种条件离开欧盟。但尽管退欧支持者们一片欢腾，留欧支持者们相互指责，有两个问题很显眼：对英国和欧洲来说退欧意味着什么？接下来又会发生什么？

Brexit: the small print 
The vote to Leave amounts to an outpouringof fury against the “establishment”. Everyone from Barack Obama tothe heads of NATO and the IMF urged Britons to embrace the EU. Their entreatieswere spurned by voters who rejected not just their arguments but the value of“experts” in general. Large chunks of the British electorate that have bornethe brunt of public-spending cuts and have failed to share in Britain’sprosperity are now in thrall to an angry populism.

退欧：附加条款

退欧的公投结果可以被视作人们反对“权势集团”而发泄的怒火。每一个人，从奥巴马到北约乃至国际货币基金组织的领导人，都极力主张英国人拥抱欧盟。他们的恳求被选民们断然拒绝，不仅是因为选民们拒绝接受他们的主张，还因为通常意义上的“专家”的价值已被选民所唾弃。首当其冲受到公共开支削减影响并且未能享受英国繁荣果实的大量英国选民，现在已经被愤怒的民粹主义所影响。

Britons offered many reasons for rejecting the EU, from thedemocratic deficit in Brussels to the weakness of the euro-zone economies. Butthe deal-breaking feature of EU membership for Britain seemed to be the freemovement of people. As the number of new arrivals has grown, immigration hasrisen up the list of voters’ concerns.

英国公民们提出了许多拒绝欧盟的理由，从布鲁塞尔的民主赤字（注：民主赤字是指政府的政治治理与民意相差巨大，即高层管理者所构建的上层建筑得不到民主的支持。）到欧元区经济体的疲软。不过导致英国留欧失败的关键原因看起来是欧盟内部人口的自由流动。由于新移民数量的增加，移民问题也成为选民们新的关注点。

Accordingly, the Leave side promised supporters both a thriving economyand control over immigration. But Britons cannot have that outcome just byvoting for it. If they want access to the EU’s single market and to enjoy thewealth it brings, they will have to accept free movement of people. If Britainrejects free movement, it will have to pay the price of being excluded from thesingle market. The country must pick between curbing migration and maximisingwealth.

因此，退欧的一方承诺支持者既保持经济繁荣又控制移民。但英国人不可能仅仅通过投票就实现这样的结果。如果他们想进入欧盟的单一市场并享受它带来的财富，他们就必须接受人口自由流动。如果英国拒绝人口自由流动，那么它就将付出被欧盟单一市场排除在外的代价。英国必须在限制移民和最大化财富这两者之中择其一。

David Cameron is not the man to make that choice. Havingrecklessly called the referendum and led a failed campaign, he has showncatastrophic misjudgment and cannot credibly negotiate Britain’s departure.That should now fall to a new prime minister.

戴维·卡梅伦不是能做出这个选择的人。在鲁莽地举行了全民公投并领导了一场失败活动之后，他已经展现出了灾难性的误判并且不能令人信服地为英国的离开进行后续磋商。这个任务现在将落到新的首相身上。

We believe that he or she should opt for a Norwegian-style dealthat gives full access to the world’s biggest single market, but maintains theprinciple of the free movement of people. The reason is that this wouldmaximise prosperity. And the supposed cost—migration—is actually beneficial, asLeave campaigners themselves have said. European migrants are net contributorsto public finances, so they more than pay their way for their use of health andeducation services. Without migrants from the EU, schools, hospitals andindustries such as farming and the building trade would be short of labour.

我们相信他或她应该选择一个挪威式的交易，这将给予英国进入世界最大单一市场的完全自由，但同时维持人口自由流动的规定。原因是这样做将会使繁荣最大化。而且所谓的成本——人口迁移——实际上是有好处的，那些退欧领导者自己也这样说。欧州人移民对公共财政是净贡献者，如果没有来自欧盟的移民，那么学校、医院和农业、建筑业这类行业就将出现劳工短缺。

Preventing Frexit
The hard task will be telling Britons who voted to Leave that the free havingand eating of cake is not an option. The new prime minister will faceaccusations of selling out—for the simple reason that he or she will indeedhave to break a promise, whether over migration or the economy. That is whyvoters must confirm any deal, preferably in a general election rather thananother referendum. This may be easier to win than seems possible today. Whilea deal is being done, the economy will suffer and immigration will fall of itsown accord.

防止法国退欧
支持退欧的英国人将会面临的艰巨任务是天上掉馅饼并不现实。新首相将会面临违反诺言的指控——原因很简单，他或她必将违背一个承诺，无论是在移民或是经济方面，难以两全。这就是为什么选民们必须确认所有交易，最好是在大选而不是其他全民公投。这个交易获得成功可能比今天的公投还容易。当交易完成时，经济将会遭到冲击，移民也将自行减少。

Brexit is also a grave blow for the EU. The high-priesthood inBrussels has lost touch with ordinary citizens—and not just in Britain. Arecent survey for Pew Research found that in France, a founder member and longa strong supporter, only 38% of people still hold a favourable view of the EU,six points lower than in Britain. In none of the countries the survey looked atwas there much support for transferring powers to Brussels.

英国退欧对欧盟也是一个沉重的打击。布鲁塞尔的最高决策者已经脱离了人民群众——不仅仅是在英国。皮尤研究最近的一项调查显示，在法国这个欧盟创始国和长期强力支持欧盟的国家，只有38%的民众仍然对欧盟持积极看法，比英国低了6个百分点。调查覆盖的国家没有一国多数支持转移权力到布鲁塞尔。

Each country feels resentment in its own way. In Italy andGreece, where the economies are weak, they fume over German-imposed austerity.In France the EU is accused of being “ultra-liberal” (even as Britons condemnit for tying them up in red tape). In eastern Europe traditional nationalistsblame the EU for imposing cosmopolitan values like gay marriage.

每个国家都从自己的角度感到不满。在意大利和希腊这两个经济堪忧的国家，他们为德国强加的紧缩政策而愤怒。在法国，欧盟因为“超自由”而被指责（正当英国人指责欧盟的繁文缛节把他们绑的太紧的时候）。在东欧，传统民族主义者责备欧盟强行推进譬如同性婚姻之类的普世价值观。

Although the EU needs to deal with popular anger, the remedylies in boosting growth. Completing the single market in, say, digital servicesand capital markets would create jobs and prosperity. The euro zone needsstronger underpinnings, starting with a proper banking union. Acting on age-oldtalk of returning powers, including labour-market regulation, to nationalgovernments would show that the EU is not bent on acquiring power no matterwhat.

虽然欧盟需要应对公愤，解决方法就在于促进经济增长。完善单一市场进入，数字化服务和资本市场将创造就业和经济繁荣。欧元区需要更强的基础，从一个正式的银行业联盟开始。但具体到老生常谈的权力上交，包括从劳动力市场监管到联合政府，却都显露出欧盟没有无论如何都要获取权力的决心。

This newspaper sees much to lament in this vote—and a dangerthat Britain will become more closed, more isolated and less dynamic. It wouldbe bad for everyone if Great Britain shrivelled into Little England and beworse still if this led to Little Europe. The leaders of Leave counter with thepromise to unleash a vibrant, outward-looking 21st-century economy. We doubtthat Brexit will achieve this, but nothing would make us happier than to beproved wrong.

本报对这一公投感到痛惜——而且还有英国将变得更封闭，更孤立，更缺乏活力的危险。如果大不列颠萎缩成了小英格兰，对每个人都是坏事，如果这件事导致欧盟分裂那就更糟了。退欧派领导人们承诺要释放出一个富有活力，外向经济的21世纪经济体。我们十分怀疑退欧能否实现上述愿景，不过若事实证明我们是错的，那我们就再开心不过了。