后来：菲律宾针对中国仲裁案件所产生的后果 [美国媒体]

The Day After: The Fallout From thePhilippines Arbitration Case Against China

后来：菲律宾针对中国仲裁案件所产生的后果



What compels compliance with rulings basedon international law? There are two camps that hold distinctly divergent viewson the issue. Rationalists believe that nations choose to comply ornot based on fear of punishment in the form of sanctions, internationalenforcement, or other material costs. Constructionists, on the other hand,believe that nations choose to comply with international law becausethey want to follow norms and existing rules of behavior, or fear thereputational costs of non-compliance.

什么东西可以强迫一个国家遵守基于国际法所作出的裁决？在这个问题上，有两种完全不同的看法。理性主义者认为一个国家选择是否遵守要看是否害怕因此而遭受的制裁，国际执法或者其他方面的代价。而法令解释者认为国家之所以遵守国际法是因为他们想遵守规范或现行的行为准则，或者是因为害怕不遵守所可能产生的名誉损害。

The impending Permanent Court ofArbitration (PCA) ruling at the Hague in a dispute between the Philippines andChina over maritime features in the South China Sea will either be one of themost consequential decisions ever meted out by the PCA or one of the mostinconsequential. The ruling is expected to be released July 12.How China and other countries respond in the aftermath of the decision,expected in the coming days, will also to a large extent determine whichtheoretical camp of international law is proven correct regarding compliancewith and the value of international maritime law treaties, in this case theUnited Nations Law of the Sea Convention (LOSC).

海牙仲裁常设法庭即将对中菲之间的南海争议进行裁决，这将是该法庭所作出的最重要或者最不重要的裁决之一。预计将于7月12号作出裁决。中国和其他国家在裁决后将有何反应，这将在很大程度上决定着哪个阵营（理性主义者还是法令解释者）在有关国际海洋法条约的遵守和价值的看法上是正确的。


TDog • 2 days ago
The worst possible outcome for Washingtonwould be if Duterte engaged in bilateral talks with Beijing. Washington hasalways complained about "free riders", but the core of US foreignpolicy is to have "allies" who are really in effect nothing more thansubordinates lacking all but the niceties of sovereignty.

对于美国来说最糟糕的情况是菲律宾新总统和北京进行双边会谈。华盛顿一直以来都在抱怨“搭便车者”，但是美国外交政策的核心是拥有下属一样的任美国摆布的“盟友”。

thesurvivor TDog • 21 hours ago
Philippines asked the PCA to rule that theScarborough Shoal is only entitled to a 12 NM territorial sea and not EEZ. Evenif the Philippines win the case I don't see how Philippines benefit from theruling. China has never claim 200 NM EEZ around Scarborough Shoal. This is justa smoke screen for propaganda war to claim victory over nothing. US also claimto defending freedom of navigation but who is against freedom of navigation.Again US claim victory!
Most people don't understand the issue.

菲律宾要求海牙法庭裁决黄岩岛只拥有12海里的领海而不是专属经济区。即使菲律宾赢了，我也不觉得菲律宾能从中获得什么好处。中国从来没有在黄岩岛声称200海里的专属经济区。所以这是一种障眼法，目的是政治宣传。美国也声称要保护航行自由，但是谁阻碍航行自由了吗？所以美国也是无中生有，好让世人觉得美国赢了。
很多人对这些议题根本就不了解。

3xposed thesurvivor • 11 hours ago
No different than the Philippines askingonly 12 NM around Johnson Reef, Cuarteron Reef, and Fiery Cross Reef but notasking in it's Relief Sought anything about Itu Aba. If the court operatesstrictly only on the points brought to it, it means the court should have nojudgement of Itu Aba in this proceeding which means the Philippines trying tolimit China to 12 NM around the aforementioned features and the remaining beinglow tide elevations is moot because they all fall within 200 NM of Itu Aba.

这与菲律宾要求赤瓜礁，华阳礁，永暑礁只有12海里领海无异，但没有对太平岛提出任何要求。如果法庭根据具体的上诉作出裁决，这意味着法庭将不会对太平岛作出任何评判，这意味着菲律宾要求中国对上诉岛礁及其其他海面下的礁石只拥有12海里的请求是无效的，因为它们都在太平岛200海里专属经济区内。

China Cowboys  TDog • a day ago
He already did, he have sent 5 Philippineofficers in China last week.

菲律宾新总统已经这么做了，上周他派了5名官员前往中国。

Dragon's Nightmare  China Cowboys • a day ago
Lies... he just sworn in today June 30,2016 as the President of the Philippines.

撒谎吧你，他6月30号刚上任。

Ferdy Marcos  China Cowboys • a day ago
Show the link of your statement, or foreverbe viewed as a good LIAR.

给出链接，要不然你就是撒谎。

China Cowboys  Ferdy Marcos • a day ago
I watched the show call Taiwan Today lastweek, the guess have said that, Philippines want China build 4 railroad forthem.

我上周看了《今日台湾》节目，里面的嘉宾这么说的，菲律宾想让中国给他们建造四条铁路。

herecomesrusty  TDog • a day ago
Some ASEAN leaders has a differentperspective and says that this is really between two superpowers and the ASEANsare just caught in the middle.

某些东盟领导人持有不同观点，他们认为这是两个超级强国之间的较量，东盟只不过被夹在中间罢了。

TDog herecomesrusty • 12 hours ago
There's a great deal of truth to that.

楼上说得没错。

Dragon's Nightmare  herecomesrusty • a day ago
That is the typical pronouncements of thetwo traditional lap dogs of China in ASEAN namely Cambodia and Laos. These twoirrelevant countries must leave ASEAN.

那是东盟中两只传统的中国哈巴狗的看法，即柬埔寨和老挝。这两个不相关的国家必须被提出东盟。

herecomesrusty  Dragon's Nightmare • a day ago
Its not just Cambodia and Laos who defendsChina. Even some politicians in Malaysia and Philippines favors bilateralsettlement with China. Philippines was once the only country to favor bilateralnegotiations with China under Arroyo.

不仅仅柬埔寨和老挝在维护中国。甚至马来西亚和菲律宾的一些政治家也想和中国进行双边会谈。而在阿罗约统治时期，菲律宾是唯一一个想和中国进行双边协商的国家。

Dragon's Nightmare  TDog • a day ago
If Duterte forged an agreement with Chinafor any Joint Development inside the 200NM EEZ of the Philippines. He can kissgoodbye to his political career... as per the constitution of the Philippinesthe President cannot share the territory of the Philippines to any othercountries... its an IMPEACHABLE OFFENCE.

如果新总统和中国签署条约在菲律宾200海里专属经济区之内进行联合开发，那么他的政治生涯就结束了。。。菲律宾宪法规定总统不能和其他国家分享菲律宾领土。。。这可是会被弹劾的罪名。

Thomas Fung • a day ago
It seems unnecessary to speculate onChina's post ruling response, when it has already responded in advance of theruling.

没必要猜测中国在裁决之后的反应，中国已经表态了。

MahmudH Sane traditional Nuclear power • 18 hours ago
If you have a look though wikis list ofterritorial disputes, you'll see a number of them relate to islands, reefs, andarchipelagos.
What makes the China dispute different isthat they are the only ones to have the resources to build artificial islands tobeef up their claim.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wik...

如果你去维基百科上看看领土争议的名单，你会发现很多都是关于岛屿，礁石和群岛的。
而让中国的争议变得与众不同的是他们建造人工岛来强化自己的主权声明。
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wik...