美国寻求全球霸权的自我挫败 [美国媒体]

America’s self-defeating quest for global supremacy

美国寻求全球霸权的自我挫败

By KEN MOAK JULY 10, 2018 9:20 PM (UTC+8)
作者：KEN MOAK ，2018年7月10日



US President Donald Trump’s trade war against China (and the world) might not be his decision alone. Previous administrations, the US Congress and neoconservatives have made preventing any nation from challenging US supremacy their business. In this regard, this author was wrong in predicting that Trump would not follow through with the trade war threat because it would cause unthinkable damage to the economies of the US, China and the world.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对中国(乃至世界)发动的贸易战可能并不仅仅是他的决定。
历届美国政府、美国国会和新保守主义者都将阻止任何国家挑战美国霸权视为己任，在这方面，作者本人曾错误地预测特朗普不会继续实施贸易战威胁，因为这将对美国、中国和世界的经济造成不可想象的损害。

However, concern over China’s rise, particularly on the technological front, has unnerved not only the US president but members of Congress, the neoconservatives and the majority of the public. China’s industrial blueprint, “Made in China 2025,” is fast narrowing the technological gap and indeed the Asian giant might surpass America in some areas: fast computing, high-speed railway, artificial intelligence and driverless cars.

然而，对中国崛起的担忧，尤其是在科技领域的担忧，不仅让美国总统感到不安，也让国会议员、新保守主义者和大多数公众感到不安。中国的工业蓝图“中国制造2025”正在迅速缩小技术差距，事实上，这个亚洲巨人可能在一些领域超过美国：超级计算、高速铁路、人工智能和无人驾驶汽车。

China might be nearing “peer level” in military technology. Though still behind the US in terms of firepower, China has the weapons systems needed to kill Americans and destroy property on a large scale. Contrary to US Republican Lindsay Graham’s claim that the war will be fought “over there” in a June 8  Fox News Face the Nation interview, a US-China military conflict will be fought on American as well as Chinese soil.

中国在军事技术方面可能已经接近“同行水平 ”，尽管在火力方面仍落后于美国，但中国拥有大规模杀伤美国人和摧毁美国军事设施所需的武器系统，与美国共和党人林赛·格雷厄姆在6月8日在福克斯新闻面向全国的采访中声称的“在战线之外”作战的说法相反，美中军事冲突将不仅在中国的土地上进行，也会在美国进行。

On the financial front, the Chinese currency is becoming increasingly internationalized. It was included in the IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket, effectively making the yuan a world reserve currency. China has also established the “petro-yuan,” allowing other countries to trade oil in yuan, undermining the power and influence of the greenback.

在金融方面，人民币正日益国际化。它被纳入国际货币基金组织特别提款权( SDR) 一篮子计划，有效地使人民币成为世界储备货币，中国还设立了“ 石油人民币”，允许其他国家以人民币交易石油，削弱了美元的力量和影响力。

For these reasons, the “Chinese threat” rhetoric has turned  into a reality, prompting Trump to label China as the country’s long-term “imminent threat.” That is why the US is not only mounting a trade war against China but playing the Taiwan card and challenging the Asian power in the South China Sea.

基于这些原因，“中国威胁论”已经成为现实，这促使特朗普将中国视为该国“迫在眉睫的威胁”，这就是为什么美国不仅在对中国发动贸易战，而且还在打台湾牌，在南中国海挑战中国这个亚洲大国。

Trump is not alone in itching for a war, either a trade or a military one, against China, which explains why he followed through with his trade war threat against the country. Democrat Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Republican Senators Lindsay Graham, Marco Rubio and others might be even more hawkish than Trump regarding China, judging from these lawmakers’ relentless China-bashing rants printed in the media.

无论是贸易战争还是军事战争，特朗普并不是唯一渴望对中国发动战争的人，这解释了他为何坚持对中国进行贸易战威胁的原因，民主党参议院少数党领袖查克 · 舒默，共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆、马尔科·卢比奥等人对中国的态度可能比特朗普更强硬，从这些议员在媒体上大肆抨击中国的言论中就可以看出这一点。

Trump’s support base, farmers and laid-off factory workers and miners in the “rust belt” states elected him in part for his anti-China rhetoric, despite the fact that the trade war might hurt them more than other Americans. Rightly or wrongly, Trump supporters genuinely believe that China is responsible for their economic and financial woes.

特朗普的支持者，农民、失业的工厂工人和“铁锈地带（指从前工业繁盛今已衰落的发达国家一些地区）”州的矿工们，部分是因为他的反华言论而选他的，尽管贸易战对他们的伤害可能比其他美国人更大，不管是对是错，特朗普的支持者们发自内心地认为，中国应该为他们的经济和财务困境负责。

Indeed, given his personal relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping and concessions (i.e. allowing ZTE to operate), Trump might not have followed through with his trade war threat without Congressional and popular support.

事实上，鉴于特朗普与中国国家主席**的个人关系以及他的让步( 即允许中兴运作 )，如果没有国会和民众的支持，特朗普可能不会兑现他的贸易战威胁。

However, blaming a trade war with China would not solve America’s problems. In any case, the approach in “dealing” with China is on the “wrong side of history”.

然而，指责与中国的贸易战并不能解决美国的问题，无论如何，这种与中国“打交道”的做法是“历史错误的一面”。

History is not on Trump’s side

历史不在特朗普一边

History shows that trade protectionism, political populism and misinformation largely caused the Great Depression, Vietnam and the Iraq wars for which America paid very dearly.

历史表明，贸易保护主义、政治民粹主义和错误失真信息在很大程度上导致了大萧条、越南战争和伊拉克战争，而美国为此付出了高昂的代价。

Instead of protecting American manufacturing and jobs, the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Act, in fact, destroyed them, leading to the Depression on both sides of the Atlantic. This was because other countries retaliated with their own protectionist policies, shutting out external markets. With insufficient aggregate demand at home, US unemployment rose dramatically, culminating in “breadlines.”

事实上，1930年代的霍利法案并没有保护美国的制造业和就业机会，反而摧毁了它们，导致了大西洋两岸的大萧条。
这是因为其他国家采取了自己的保护主义政策进行报复，将外部市场拒之门外，在国内总需求不足的情况下，美国失业率大幅上升，最终形成了“ 等待分配救济食物的队伍”。

Falsely accusing North Vietnam of firing on a US warship in the Gulf of Tonkin generated support for the Vietnam War, which resulted in America losing over 50,000 young men and women, according to an April 28, 2015, HuffPost report written by John Tirman. The Iraq War, which was based on the unsubstantiated claim that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction, killed up to a million Iraqis and over 5,000 Americans, and turned the country into a dysfunctional state wrought with sectarian conflicts. According to a March 14, 2013, Reuters report, “The Iraq war costs US more than $2 trillion: study,” written by Daniel Trotta, the conflict could cost over $6 trillion over the next four decades, counting interest incurred from the trillions spent.

据“赫芬顿邮报”2015年4月28日撰写的一篇报道，错误地指责北越向美国在东京湾（注：越南的东京湾，也即北部湾）的一艘军舰开火，引发了对越南战争的支持，越南战争导致美国失去了5万多名青年男女。
伊拉克战争是建立在萨达姆·侯赛因拥有大规模杀伤性武器这一毫无根据的指控基础上的，这场战争杀死了多达100万伊拉克人和5000多名美国人，并使伊拉克变成了一个因宗派冲突而运转不良的国家。
据路透社2013年3月14日报道，丹尼尔·特罗塔撰写的“ 伊拉克战争造成的损失超过2万亿美元的研究报告”显示，未来40年，这场冲突的成本可能超过6万亿美元，招致数万亿美元的损失。

Blaming China

指责中国

Blaming China for America’s manufacturing and job losses are equally faulty. Trump’s alma mater, the University of Pennsylvania, for example, attributed the losses to automation and businesses’ decision to discard manufacturing in favor of services as America’s growth engine. Thus, Trump’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro, accusing China of “hollowing out” manufacturing and stealing 25 million jobs is grossly misleading.

把美国的制造业和失业归咎于中国也同样是错误的。
例如，特朗普的母校宾夕法尼亚大学将损失归因于自动化和企业决定放弃制造业，转而将服务业作为美国的增长引擎。因此，特朗普的贸易顾问彼得 · 纳瓦罗( Peter Navarro ) 指责中国“掏空”制造业，窃取2500万个就业岗位，这完全是误导。

Further, accusing China and other countries of “eating America’s lunch” does incur economic, geopolitical and political costs. Some of its businesses will close, consumers will pay higher prices and unemployment will rise. Trump may not be able to secure China’s or other countries’ help in addressing global issues such as the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

此外，指责中国和其他国家“吃美国的午餐”确实要付出经济、地缘政治和政治代价，一些业务将被关闭，消费者将支付更高的价格，失业率将上升，特朗普可能无法获得中国或其他国家在解决全球问题( 如朝鲜半岛无核化 ) 方面的帮助。

Manufacturing may not return to the US, at least not to the extent he promised, because of higher wages and more stringent environmental and labor laws, which means Trump’s supporters could turn against him, denying him a second term.

由于更高的工资和更严格的环境和劳动法，制造业可能不会回到美国，至少不会达到他承诺的程度，这意味着特朗普的支持者可能会反对他，拒绝让他连任。

Furthermore, Trump’s tariffs already caused some US manufacturing companies to relocate abroad. In a June 25, 2018, Vox report, “Harley-Davidson is loser in Trump’s trade war,” written by Emily Stewart, the company is relocating production abroad.

此外，特朗普的关税已经导致一些美国制造企业迁往海外。沃克斯在2018年6月25日的一份报告中写道，“ 哈雷戴维森在特朗普的贸易战中是输家”，该公司正在将生产转移到海外。

Past “containment” policies

过时的“遏制”政策

Past “containment” policies toward China had the opposite effect.  “Freedom of navigation operations” in the South China Sea prompted China to build islands and install weapons systems on them, making it increasingly difficult, if not more dangerous, for the US and its allies to sail their warships through the waterway. Blocking China from accessing US technology has enhanced its technological prowess. Trying to dampen China’s exports resulted in its establishment of the the Belt and Road Initiative and hurt America’s economy.

过时的中国“遏制”政策产生了相反的效果。在南中国海的“航行自由行动”促使中国建造岛屿，并在这些岛屿上安装武器系统，这使得美国及其盟国越来越难以( 如果不是更危险的话 ) 派遣军舰通过南中国海，阻止中国获得美国的技术反而提高了它的技术实力，试图抑制中国的出口导致了一带一路计划的建立，并损害了美国的经济。

In that light, there is no reason to believe that a trade war against China (and other countries) would “Make America Great Again.” Destroying China’s economy would harm that of the world because it has contributed over 30% of global economic growth since 2009, according to the World Bank and other reputable organizations.

有鉴于此，没有理由相信对中国( 和其他国家 ) 的贸易战会“让美国再次伟大”。据世界银行和其他权威组织的说法，摧毁中国的经济将损害世界经济，因为自2009年以来，中国已经贡献了全球经济增长的30%以上。

Moreover, the American and Chinese economies are increasingly intertwined, each needing the other to grow and prosper. For example, US chip makers need Chinese technology firms to survive and the latter (i.e. ZTE) to stay in business.

此外，中美两国经济越来越紧密地交织在一起，彼此都需要对方才能增长和繁荣。例如，美国芯片制造商需要中国的技术公司才能生存，而且需要后者( 比如中兴通讯 ) 才能继续经营下去。

Too late to contain China

遏制中国为时已晚

In any event, it is too late to contain China; forty years of economic reform has transformed the country from an impoverished backwater into the world’s largest economy in purchasing power parity terms and second biggest in nominal exchange measurements. The quick accumulation of massive wealth and power allow it to push back the “American threat” or economic/military adventurism.

无论如何，遏制中国为时已晚；40年的经济改革已使中国从一个贫穷的落后国家，转变为按购买力平价计算的全球第一大经济体和按名义GDP衡量的第二大经济体，大量财富和权力的迅速积累使它能够击退“美国威胁”或美国的经济/军事冒险主义。

Indeed, China is even more determined to forge ahead with its Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) and “Made in China 2025” industrial policy. Its leaders, from Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Premier Li Keqiang, have been traveling the world to promote the BRI. According to China’s State Council, the country’s cabinet, the government will spend over $1.5 billion on the industrial policy, directly challenging US technological dominance.

事实上，中国更加坚定地推进其一带一路计划和“中国制造2025年”的产业政策，从外交部长王毅到总理李克强，中国领导人一直在世界各地宣传一带一路，据中国国务院称，政府将在产业政策上投入超过15亿美元（注：？原文如此），直接挑战美国的技术主导地位。

In short, containing China requires a military option, a prospect the US appears willing to risk to “keep China in its place.”

简言之，遏制中国需要一种军事选择，而美国似乎愿意冒这样的风险来“ 让中国待在原地，不要动”。

eter Seo
That time has passed. Year 2004 was the year where the US was at the pinnacle of its power, military, economic and influence. Its has since being dwindling away with the passing of time as it misuse those powers. Now it is making an enemy of all nations on earth.
Like · Reply · 5h

时间已经过来，机会已经错失。
2004年是美国在实力、军事、经济和影响力上达到顶峰的一年，自那以后，随着时间的推移，它在滥用这些权力的同时也在逐渐萎缩，现在它正在成为地球上所有国家的敌人。

Monkeyking 
Whatever Nixon signed with Deng has or is about to expired. If it's 50yrs/49 it would be 2022/21. It seems USA can't wait for that day to come.
Like · Reply · 3h

尼克松与邓小平签署的任何协议已经或即将成为过去式，如果不是2050/2049年，那就是2022/21年，看来美国等不及那一天的到来。

Monkeyking Monkeyking
Ken Moak To understand America/British/Western thinking and decisions, U have to understand the culture of pirates and predators in Western countries while most East Asian countries except Japan are agricultural or herbivore herds. Go watch a youtube how a lion/eagle hunts its prey.
Like · Reply · 3h

Ken Moak （文章作者），为了理解美国/英国/西方的思维和决策，你必须了解西方国家海盗和掠夺文化，而除日本以外的大多数东亚国家都是农业或食草动物文化，去看YouTube吧，看狮子/鹰是如何捕猎猎物的。

Yuri Ariefiadhi
america has been too arrogant since the world wars. Upcoming reality will humble america whether it likes it or not. History will be the witness and I'm personally greatly looking forward to see it.
Like · Reply · 3h

自从世界大战以来，美国就太自大了，无论美国愿意与否，即将到来的现实都会使它变得卑微。历史将是见证，我个人非常期待看到它。

Flora de la Sinensis
*** America’s self-defeating quest for global supremacy ***
Well... Fair is fair: aren’t we all protectionists when it comes to the safeguarding of our own interests? I.e., as to how Chinese Empires past and present will defend itself to the teeth and expand their Empires? Therefore America’s position is understanding by my term. One thing is for sure however: the grand old Chinese saying “一山不能容二虎” applies in these matters and this [Chinese thereom I call it], ultimately, will play itself out. There’s just no escaping. Thing us: hiw serious will this ”一山不能容二虎” tuck of war be. For instance: will it go WW3? 
Who knows what the future holds...

恩哼。。老天是公平的：当涉及到维护我们自己的利益时，我们不都是保护主义者吗？比如，中华帝国过去和现在是如何捍卫自己的牙齿和扩大他们的帝国的？因此，根据我的想法，美国的立场是理解的。
然而，有一件事是可以肯定的：中国古语“ 一山不能容二虎”很适用现在的情况，而这个 ( 我称之为“中国理念”)最终会发挥重要作用，这是逃不掉的，我们要思考的是：这场“一山不能容二虎”的斗争会有多激烈？例如：它会走向第三次世界大战吗？
未来会怎样谁知道呢。。。