你相信中国经济是一个定时炸弹吗?当它真的爆炸的时候，是否有市场是安全的呢? [美国媒体]

Do you believe China's economy is a ticking time bomb? And when it does go off, will any market be safe?

你相信中国经济是一个定时炸弹吗?当它真的爆炸的时候，是否有市场是安全的呢?





Robert Free, lived in China
On one side, China has absolutely enormous financial and fiscal problems. Many economists I listen to say that a crash is certain. Also, nobody, not even the government, really knows what is really happening. On the other hand, economists have no way to say what will happen because there's never been an economy like China's in world history.

一方面，中国存在巨大的金融和财政问题。我听很多经济学家说，崩盘是肯定的。而且，没有人，甚至连政府都不知道到底发生了什么。另一方面，经济学家没有办法说会发生什么，因为世界历史上从来没有过像中国这样的一个经济体。

My business relies partly on the Chinese market. I'm factoring in a 50% chance of a major recession within 2 years.
As a long time visitor and a person with some considerable affection for China, I think that this is normal and a good thing in the long term. Recessions happen regularly in developed economies. It's a sign that China is moving to a mature economic state. Also, a lot of garbage companies and people that are successful entirely due to the current bubble will fail and dissappear. It's natural.

我的生意在一定程度上依赖于中国市场。我认为在两年内有50%的可能性会出现大衰退。
作为一名长期的访客和对中国有一定感情的人，我认为这是正常的，长期来看也是一件好事。经济衰退经常发生在发达国家。这标志着中国正走向一个经济成熟的国家。此外，许多垃圾公司和那些完全由于当前的泡沫而成功的人将会失败和消失。这很自然。

One random factor though. China needs to get along with its neighbours and its neighbours need to get along with her. If there's a big flare up, everyone will suffer. What's really happening with Bhutan and Vietnam and Japan and Korea and Pakistan and the Philippines is not shared with people like me, so we can't know what will happen. I'm more worried about a miscalculation by Putin or Trump than Xi, but when your house is on fire, you don't care who lit the match.

还有一个随机因素。中国需要与邻国和睦相处，邻国需要与她和睦相处。如果突然爆发冲突，每个人都会遭殃。不丹、越南、日本、韩国、巴基斯坦和菲律宾的实际情况没有会分享给像我这样的人们，所以我们不知道会发生什么。比起中国我更担心的是普京或特朗普的误判，但当你的房子着火时，你不会在乎谁点燃了火柴。

Rudolf Huber, Founder at Methanist (2011-present)
There are numerous theories on how the China story is going to unfold. I am not an economist so I will give you my two cents from a purely logical standpoint.
China has fallen for the managers disease. When a company (or a country) has been run by a caste of unaccountable managers for a while, mistakes will be patched over in order to hide those same msitakes. Managers dont like to live up to their shortcomings so they are very inventive with this hiding game.

关于中国的故事将如何展开，已经有很多的理论了。我不是经济学家，所以我将从纯逻辑的角度给出发。
中国已经为经理病所折磨到了。当一个公司被一群不负责任的管理者管理一段，为了隐藏那些同样的错误错误将会被修补。管理者们不喜欢和他们的缺点住在一起，所以他们在这个隐藏的游戏中很有创造力。

Everyone makes mistakes but in the normal world they are swiftly corrected as the mistake is flushed out, blame goes where it must go, the siuation gets analyzed and the damage assessed and repaired.

每个人都会犯错误，但在正常的世界里，只要错误一旦暴露出来很快就会被纠正，责任必须由该承担的人承担，情况得到分析，而且损害得到评估和修复

Not so when unaccountable managers run the show. The inevitable mistakes get shoved under the rug where they fester and grow. This accumulates with successive managements as the new management builds on the mistakes of the old one and this goes on for many years. After a while, all the cheating and lying has hollowed out the company but nobody notices as managers need ever growing structures in order to hide their misdeeds.

但当不负责任的管理者操纵局势时，情况并非如此。不可避免的错误被塞在地毯下面溃烂和生长。随着新管理层在旧管理层的错误上建立，错误在连续的管理之下积累，这一过程持续了很多年。在一段时间后，所有的欺骗和谎言都掏空了公司，但由于经理们需要不断的增长结构来掩盖他们的错误行为人们并没有注意到。

China must show the world that it continous growing - at all cost. They cannot start repairing the mistakes of the past as they must continue the Ponzi scheme they have built.
Ponzis look all great up until one second before the fall.
Considering how big our expectations into China are - this will hurt.

中国必须向世界展示它的经济在不断增长——不惜一切代价。他们不能开始修补过去的错误，因为他们必须继续他们所建立的庞氏骗局。
庞氏看起来很不错，直到崩盘前最后一秒。
考虑到我们对中国的期望有多大，最终将会造成伤害。

Aaron Dodo
China have not nearly reached its economical potential yet. It is not the time to worry about “the fall”, because “the rise” hasn’t even finished yet. To be more accurate it’s not even “the rise”, simply “on the way to get back to typical state of wealth”. China today does not abide by the law “what rose must fall”, but rather “what fell must rise back up”.

中国目前还没有发挥出其经济最大潜力。现在还不是担心“下降”的时候，因为“上升”还没有结束。更准确地说，甚至不是“上升”，只是“在回到典型的财富状态的道路上”。今天的中国不遵守“有升必有降”的法则，而是“没落的必须重新崛起”。

Due to the way Chinese economy is regulated and the way that Chinese government works, it is by default one of the least likely economy to crash hard, as heavy powerful laws can be passed very quickly during unforeseen circumstances, preventing snowball effects.
If we need to worry about ticking time bombs, many other large economies are at higher risks and China is in fact one of the safer choices. But if there is indeed a Chinese economical crash, its force will be felt everywhere.

由于中国经济受到管制，以及国家的运作方式，中国经济是最不可能崩溃的经济体之一，因为在意外情况下，强有力的法律可以迅速通过，防止雪球效应。
如果我们需要担心定时炸弹，许多其他大型经济体面临的风险更高，而中国实际上是一个更安全的选择。但如果真的出现了中国经济崩溃的情况，它的力量造成的影响将无处不在。

Michael Kupperberg
Sooner or later the bubble is going to burst in China. The cost of sustaining cities, and buildings with no tenants or people, roads to nowhere, it has been an infrastructure boon, but not an economically sound one. How long China can keep things afloat is anybody’s guess.

泡沫迟早会在中国破灭。维持城市的成本，没有租户或人的建筑，哪都不去的道路，这是基础设施的恩惠，但不是经济上的。中国能维持多久，谁也说不准。

Larry Park
I guess this time bomb has been ticking for more than 20 years but it just doesn’t go off . China’s economy is still growing ang growing at a pace faster than any countries in the world .

我猜这颗定时炸弹已经持续了20多年了，但它还是没有爆炸。中国的经济增长速度仍然比世界上任何国家都快。