《前澳大利亚总理陆克文：中美之间注定会发生冲突吗？》youtube视频附评论 [美国媒体]

Are China and the US doomed to conflict? |Kevin Rudd

《前澳大利亚总理陆克文：中美之间注定会发生冲突吗？》youtube视频附评论

 

G'day, my name's Kevin. I'm from Australia.I'm here to help.
Tonight, I want to talk about a tale of twocities. One of those cities is called Washington, and the other is calledBeijing. Because how these two capitals shape their future and the future ofthe United States and the future of China doesn't just affect those twocountries, it affects all of us in ways, perhaps, we've never thought of: theair we breathe, the water we drink, the fish we eat, the quality of our oceans,the languages we speak in the future, the jobs we have, the political systemswe choose, and, of course, the great questions of war and peace.
You see that bloke? He's French. His nameis Napoleon. A couple of hundred years ago, he made this extraordinaryprojection: "China is a sleeping lion, and when she awakes, the world willshake." Napoleon got a few things wrong; he got this one absolutely right.Because China is today not just woken up, China has stood up and China is onthe march, and the question for us all is where will China go and how do we engagethis giant of the 21st century?
You start looking at the numbers, theystart to confront you in a big way. It's projected that China will become, bywhichever measure -- PPP, market exchange rates -- the largest economy in theworld over the course of the decade ahead. They're already the largest tradingnation, already the largest exporting nation, already the largest manufacturingnation, and they're also the biggest emitters of carbon in the world. Americacomes second.
So if China does become the world's largesteconomy, think about this: It'll be the first time since this guy was on thethrone of England -- George III, not a good friend of Napoleon's -- that in theworld we will have as the largest economy a non-English speaking country, anon-Western country, a non-liberal democratic country. And if you don't thinkthat's going to affect the way in which the world happens in the future, thenpersonally, I think you've been smoking something, and it doesn't mean you'refrom Colorado.

陆克文：大家好，我叫凯文，来自澳大利亚，我是来帮忙的。
今晚，我想聊一聊双城记。其中一个城市叫华盛顿，另一个叫北京。因为，这两个首都如何规划他们的未来，以及如何规划美国的未来，中国的未来，影响的不仅仅是这两个国家，而是我们所有人的很多方面。可能我们都没想过：我们呼吸的空气，饮用的水，食用的鱼，海洋的质量，以后使用语言，拥有的工作，选择的政治系统，当然，还有，战争与和平这一重大问题，都要受到这两个国家的影响。

看到那哥儿们了吗？他是法国人，他的名字叫拿破仑，几百年前，他发表了这一非凡的推测“中国是沉睡的雄狮，当她醒来时世界将为之震撼。”拿破仑犯过一些错误，但在这一点上，毫无疑问他是正确的。因为今天的中国不单醒了，而且还站了起来，并大步前行。那么留给我们的问题就是：中国将走向何方？我们如何在21世纪与这个巨人一同前行呢？

你开始看数据，大堆的数据向你涌来。这些数据展现出中国不管是以哪种方式衡量——购买力平价，市场汇率——在接下来十年里都将成为世界上最大的经济体。中国现在已经是世界上最大的贸易国，最大的出口国和最大的生产制造国。同时也是世界上碳排放量最大的国家，美国位居第二。
所以一旦中国成为世界最大的经济体，那么细想一下：这将会是自英国国王乔治三世之后——他可不是拿破仑的好友——这个世界上形成的最大经济体，而且是一个非英语国家。它不是一个西方国家，它不是一个自由的西式民主国家。如果你觉得这不会影响世界未来的发展，那么我个人觉得，你一定是大麻抽嗨了，当然这并不意味你来自科罗拉多（美国的一个州，大麻已经合法化）。

So in short, the question we have tonightis, how do we understand this mega-change, which I believe to be the biggestchange for the first half of the 21st century? It'll affect so many things. Itwill go to the absolute core. It's happening quietly. It's happeningpersistently. It's happening in some senses under the radar, as we are allpreoccupied with what's going in Ukraine, what's going on in the Middle East,what's going on with ISIS, what's going on with ISIL, what's happening with thefuture of our economies. This is a slow and quiet revolution. And with amega-change comes also a mega-challenge, and the mega-challenge is this: Canthese two great countries, China and the United States -- China, the MiddleKingdom, and the United States, Měiguó -- which in Chinese, by the way, means"the beautiful country." Think about that -- that's the name thatChina has given this country for more than a hundred years. Whether these twogreat civilizations, these two great countries, can in fact carve out a commonfuture for themselves and for the world? In short, can we carve out a futurewhich is peaceful and mutually prosperous, or are we looking at a greatchallenge of war or peace? And I have 15 minutes to work through war or peace,which is a little less time than they gave this guy to write a book called"War and Peace."
People ask me, why is it that a kid growingup in rural Australia got interested in learning Chinese? Well, there are tworeasons for that. Here's the first of them. That's Betsy the cow. Now, Betsythe cow was one of a herd of dairy cattle that I grew up with on a farm inrural Australia. See those hands there? These are not built for farming. Sovery early on, I discovered that in fact, working in a farm was not designedfor me, and China was a very safe remove from any career in Australian farmlife.
Here's the second reason. That's my mom.Anyone here ever listen to what their mom told them to do? Everyone ever dowhat their mom told them to do? I rarely did, but what my mom said to me was,one day, she handed me a newspaper, a headline which said, here we have a hugechange. And that change is China entering the United Nations. 1971, I had justturned 14 years of age, and she handed me this headline. And she said,"Understand this, learn this, because it's going to affect yourfuture."
So being a very good student of history, Idecided that the best thing for me to do was, in fact, to go off and learnChinese. The great thing about learning Chinese is that your Chinese teachergives you a new name. And so they gave me this name: Kè, which means toovercome or to conquer, and Wén, and that's the character for literature or thearts. Kè Wén, Conqueror of the Classics. Any of you guys called"Kevin"? It's a major lift from being called Kevin to be calledConqueror of the Classics. I've been called Kevin all my life. Have you beencalled Kevin all your life? Would you prefer to be called Conqueror of theClassics?

简而言之，今晚我们的问题就是要如何理解这场巨变。我觉得这是21世纪上半叶最大的改变，它的影响范围极广，它会影响到我们最关心的核心问题。它悄然无息的发生，在持续不断的发生。它在以雷达侦测不到的某种方式发生。而此时我们却在关心乌克兰怎么样了，中东怎么样了，ISIS恐怖组织怎么样了，基地组织怎么样了。我们未来的经济会怎样，这是一个缓慢而无声的革命，伴随着这个巨变而来的是巨大的挑战，这个巨大的挑战就是：这两个大国：中国和美国——中国的意思是中央之国，美国 Měiguó——在中文里，意思是“美丽的国家”。想一下，那是中国在一百多年前给美国起的名字。这两种文明，这两个国家能否为他们也为世界勾勒出共同的未来呢？简而言之，我们能否勾画出这样的一个未来，一个和平共处，互惠互利的未来，还是我们要考虑战争与和平这个重大的挑战？我用15分钟的时间来给大家讲一下战争与和平，这和当时他们给这个人写《战争与和平》的时间相比要简短些。

人们问我，为什么一个在澳大利亚乡下长大的小孩会对学习中文感兴趣呢？原因有二，这是第一个，这是一头叫贝琪的奶牛，奶牛贝琪是在澳洲农村和我一起长大的众多奶牛中的一头，看到这双手了吗？它们并不适合耕作，所以很早的时候，我就发现我并不适合在农场做事，而中国对我来说则是从澳洲农业生活中安全解脱的途径。

接来下第二个原因，那是我母亲，在座有人曾听从母亲的建议吗？在座有人曾遵循母亲的建议吗？我几乎没有遵循过，但有一天母亲递给我一张报纸。标题写的是：我们将遭遇巨大改变，而这个改变就是中国进入了联合国。1971年，我刚满14岁，她给我看了这个标题，然后说，“理解并学习这些知识，因为这会影响你的未来。“

所以作为历史学科的好学生，我做了一个最适合我的决定，其实，就是立马去学中文。对于学中文来说，很棒的一件事就是你的中文老师会给你起一个新名字。所以他们给我起了这个名字：克，意思就是去克服，去征服；文，这个汉字代表文学艺术；克文，经典文化的征服者。有人名字是凯文的吗？从“凯文”到“经典文化的征服者”，确实是一大提升啊，我一辈子都被人叫凯文，你们是否被叫了一辈子凯文了？
你是否想要被叫成“经典文化的征服者”？

And so I went off after that and joined theAustralian Foreign Service, but here is where pride -- before pride, therealways comes a fall. So there I am in the embassy in Beijing, off to the GreatHall of the People with our ambassador, who had asked me to interpret for hisfirst meeting in the Great Hall of the People. And so there was I. If you'vebeen to a Chinese meeting, it's a giant horseshoe. At the head of the horsehoeare the really serious pooh-bahs, and down the end of the horseshoe are thenot-so-serious pooh-bahs, the junior woodchucks like me. And so the ambassadorbegan with this inelegant phrase. He said, "China and Australia arecurrently enjoying a relationship of unprecedented closeness." And Ithought to myself, "That sounds clumsy. That sounds odd. I will improveit." Note to file: Never do that. It needed to be a little more elegant, alittle more classical, so I rendered it as follows.
There was a big pause on the other side ofthe room. You could see the giant pooh-bahs at the head of the horseshoe, theblood visibly draining from their faces, and the junior woodchucks at the otherend of the horseshoe engaged in peals of unrestrained laughter. Because when Irendered his sentence, "Australia and China are enjoying a relationship ofunprecedented closeness," in fact, what I said was that Australia andChina were now experiencing fantastic orgasm.
That was the last time I was asked tointerpret. But in that little story, there's a wisdom, which is, as soon as youthink you know something about this extraordinary civilization of 5,000 yearsof continuing history, there's always something new to learn.
History is against us when it comes to theU.S. and China forging a common future together. This guy up here? He's notChinese and he's not American. He's Greek. His name's Thucydides. He wrote thehistory of the Peloponnesian Wars. And he made this extraordinary observationabout Athens and Sparta. "It was the rise of Athens and the fear that thisinspired in Sparta that made war inevitable." And hence, a whole literatureabout something called the Thucydides Trap.
This guy here? He's not American and he'snot Greek. He's Chinese. His name is Sun Tzu. He wrote "The Art ofWar," and if you see his statement underneath, it's along these lines:"Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are notexpected." Not looking good so far for China and the United States.
This guy is an American. His name's GrahamAllison. In fact, he's a teacher at the Kennedy School over there in Boston.He's working on a single project at the moment, which is, does the ThucydidesTrap about the inevitably of war between rising powers and established greatpowers apply to the future of China-U.S. relations? It's a core question. Andwhat Graham has done is explore 15 cases in history since the 1500s toestablish what the precedents are. And in 11 out of 15 of them, let me tellyou, they've ended in catastrophic war.
You may say, "But Kevin -- orConqueror of the Classics -- that was the past. We live now in a world ofinterdependence and globalization. It could never happen again." Guesswhat? The economic historians tell us that in fact, the time which we reachedthe greatest point of economic integration and globalization was in 1914, justbefore that happened, World War I, a sobering reflection from history.
So if we are engaged in this great questionof how China thinks, feels, and positions itself towards the United States, andthe reverse, how do we get to the baseline of how these two countries andcivilizations can possibly work together?

大学毕业后我为澳大利亚外交部服务，但是这个地方让我在得到荣誉之前先跌了一个跟头。那时我在澳大利亚驻北京大使馆，准备和我们大使去人民大会堂。他让我在人民大会堂为他的第一次会议做翻译，我就去了。如果你参加过中国的会议，你就会发现会场是个马蹄铁形，马蹄的顶端坐着非常严肃的大人物。沿着马蹄下来是一些不怎么严肃的大人物，以及一些像我这样的小兵小卒。然后大使就开始用他那不怎么文雅的措辞开始演讲，他说，“目前澳中关系空前亲密。”我就对自己说“这听起来很笨拙，很奇怪啊，我要改改。”——友情提醒：千万不用这么做！——这句话要稍微优雅些，稍微经典些。所以经过我的渲染后这句话变成了如下这样：“澳中关系最近处于高潮。”

在房间的另一边，是久久的沉默。你可以看到马蹄顶端的那些大人物，他们脸蹭地一下就充血了，然后马蹄另一端的那些年轻的小兵小将们爆发出一阵阵大笑。因为当我重新渲染这句话“目前澳中关系空前亲密”的时候。实际上，我说的是“澳大利亚和中国正在享受绝美的性高潮。”
这也是我最后一次被叫去做翻译。这虽然是个小故事，其中却蕴含着很深的道理，那就是，哪怕你觉得自己已经了解了这个有5000年历史大国博大精深的文明，也总有新的知识值得你去学。

当谈到美国与中国共筑未来时，历史总是与我们背道而驰。上面的这个人，他不是中国人也不是美国人，他是希腊人，名字叫修昔底德。他写了《伯罗奔尼撒战争史》，对雅典和斯巴达有着卓越的观察研究。“正是雅典的崛起，以及由此引发的斯巴达的恐惧，导致战争不可避免。”所以，有了所谓的“修昔底德陷阱。”
这个人，他不是美国人也不是希腊人，他是中国人，他的名字叫孙子，他写了《孙子兵法》。如果你读过他的话，也就是下面这行字：“攻其无备, 出其不意。”你就知道，中美关系目前看起来不太乐观。

这个人是美国人，名字叫格拉阿姆埃里森。他是波士顿肯尼迪学校的一名老师，目前在忙一个项目，就是关于两股崛起力量引发的不可避免的战争的修昔底德陷阱是否会应验于中美未来的关系。这是个核心问题。格拉阿姆研究了自公元1500年以来历史上的15个案例，看看前例都是怎样的。让我告诉你们，15个案案例中的11个都以灾难性的战争结束。

你可能会说，“但是，凯文——或称你为经典文化的征服者——那是过去了，我们现在生活在一个相互依靠的全球化世界里，这种事情不可能再发生了。”你猜怎么着？经济历史学家告诉我们，事实上经济一体化和全球化的鼎盛时期是在1914年，就在第一次世界大战之前，这可是发人深省的历史之鉴。

所以如果我们要思考这个问题，即中国是怎么想的，在美国面前是怎样定位自己的。然后想下美国，我们怎样才能认识到这两个国家两种文明协同发展的底线。

Let me first go to, in fact, China's viewsof the U.S. and the rest of the West. Number one: China feels as if it's beenhumiliated at the hands of the West through a hundred years of history,beginning with the Opium Wars. When after that, the Western powers carved Chinaup into little pieces, so that by the time it got to the '20s and '30s, signslike this one appeared on the streets of Shanghai. ["No dogs and Chineseallowed"] How would you feel if you were Chinese, in your own country, ifyou saw that sign appear? China also believes and feels as if, in the events of1919, at the Peace Conference in Paris, when Germany's colonies were given backto all sorts of countries around in the world, what about German colonies inChina? They were, in fact, given to Japan. When Japan then invaded China in the1930s the world looked away and was indifferent to what would happen to China.And then, on top of that, the Chinese to this day believe that the UnitedStates and the West do not accept the legitimacy of their political systembecause it's so radically different from those of us who come from liberaldemocracies, and believe that the United States to this day is seeking toundermine their political system. China also believes that it is beingcontained by U.S. allies and by those with strategic partnerships with the U.S.right around its periphery. And beyond all that, the Chinese have this feelingin their heart of hearts and in their gut of guts that those of us in thecollective West are just too damned arrogant. That is, we don't recognize theproblems in our own system, in our politics and our economics, and are veryquick to point the finger elsewhere, and believe that, in fact, we in thecollective West are guilty of a great bunch of hypocrisy.
Of course, in international relations, it'snot just the sound of one hand clapping. There's another country too, andthat's called the U.S. So how does the U.S. respond to all of the above? TheU.S. has a response to each of those. On the question of is the U.S. containingChina, they say, "No, look at the history of the Soviet Union. That wascontainment." Instead, what we have done in the U.S. and the West is welcomeChina into the global economy, and on top of that, welcome them into the WorldTrade Organization. The U.S. and the West say China cheats on the question ofintellectual property rights, and through cyberattacks on U.S. and globalfirms. Furthermore, the United States says that the Chinese political system isfundamentally wrong because it's at such fundamental variance to the humanrights, democracy, and rule of law that we enjoy in the U.S. and the collectiveWest. And on top of all the above, what does the United States say? That theyfear that China will, when it has sufficient power, establish a sphere ofinfluence in Southeast Asia and wider East Asia, boot the United States out,and in time, when it's powerful enough, unilaterally seek to change the rules ofthe global order.
So apart from all of that, it's just fineand dandy, the U.S.-China relationship. No real problems there. The challenge,though, is given those deep-rooted feelings, those deep-rooted emotions andthought patterns, what the Chinese call "Sīwéi," ways of thinking,how can we craft a basis for a common future between these two?

我先来说说中国对美国以及西方国家的看法。第一：中国感到在过去的一百年历史里，从鸦片战争开始，备受西方列强的欺辱。之后，西方列强瓜分了中国。所以在20年代30年代时，像这样的告示牌【译者注：狗与华人不得入内】出现在上海的大街上。如果你是中国人，在你的国家看到这样的牌子，你会有何感受？中国还认为在1919年的巴黎和会上，当德国殖民地被归还给世界各国时，德国在中国的殖民地怎么样了呢？这些殖民地全给了日本。当日本在30年代入侵中国时，全世界都袖手旁观。另外，今天的中国人也相信，美国和西方国家并不接受中国政治体系的合法性，因为它和我们这些自由民主国家有着根本区别。中国也相信，今天的美国在伺机破坏他们的政治体系。中国也相信，他们被美国和美国的战略伙伴给包围了。除此之外，中国人打心底里深信，我们西方各国太过高傲了。就是我们没办法意识到自己政治体制和经济体制方面的问题，却忙着上别人那里指手画脚。他们也相信，我们西方国家应为自己的伪善感到羞愧。

当然，在国际关系中一个巴掌是拍不响的，还有另外一个国家呢，那就是美国。那么美国是如何回应以上这些问题的呢？美国对此一一做出了回应。就美国遏制中国问题，他们说，“不，看看苏联的历史，那才是遏制。”相反，我们美国和西方国家欢迎中国来到世界经济体系当中，另外，我们欢迎中国加入世界贸易组织。美国和西方国家说中国在知识产权这问题上作假，对美国和跨国公司进行网络攻击。还有，美国说中国的政治体系的基础是错的，因为中国在人权，民主，法律上和美国以及西方国家有着根本差别。除此之外，美国说了什么？他们害怕中国，害怕当中国国力达到一定程度时，会对东南亚和东亚其它地区产生大规模影响，把美国踢出局。害怕当中国国力强盛时，会单方面寻机改变世界秩序。

除了这些以外，中美关系还是挺融洽的，没什么大问题。而问题在于那些根深蒂固的感觉，那些根深蒂固的情绪以及思考模式，中国人称之为“思维”，思考方式。我们如何才能为两国共同未来打造一个基础呢？

I argue simply this: We can do it on thebasis on a framework of constructive realism for a common purpose. What do Imean by that? Be realistic about the things that we disagree on, and amanagement approach that doesn't enable any one of those differences to breakinto war or conflict until we've acquired the diplomatic skills to solve them. Beconstructive in areas of the bilateral, regional and global engagement betweenthe two, which will make a difference for all of humankind. Build a regionalinstitution capable of cooperation in Asia, an Asia-Pacific community. Andworldwide, act further, like you've begun to do at the end of last year bystriking out against climate change with hands joined together rather than fistsapart.
Of course, all that happens if you've got acommon mechanism and political will to achieve the above. These things aredeliverable. But the question is, are they deliverable alone? This is what ourhead tells us we need to do, but what about our heart?
I have a little experience in the questionback home of how you try to bring together two peoples who, frankly, haven't hada whole lot in common in the past. And that's when I apologized to Australia'sindigenous peoples. This was a day of reckoning in the Australian government,the Australian parliament, and for the Australian people. After 200 years ofunbridled abuse towards the first Australians, it was high time that we whitefolks said we were sorry.
The important thing --
The important thing that I remember isstaring in the faces of all those from Aboriginal Australia as they came tolisten to this apology. It was extraordinary to see, for example, old womentelling me the stories of when they were five years old and literally rippedaway from their parents, like this lady here. It was extraordinary for me tothen be able to embrace and to kiss Aboriginal elders as they came into theparliament building, and one woman said to me, it's the first time a whitefella had ever kissed her in her life, and she was over 70. That's a terriblestory.
And then I remember this family saying tome, "You know, we drove all the way from the far North down to Canberra tocome to this thing, drove our way through redneck country. On the way back,stopped at a cafe after the apology for a milkshake." And they walked intothis cafe quietly, tentatively, gingerly, a little anxious. I think you knowwhat I'm talking about. But the day after the apology, what happened? Everyonein that cafe, every one of the white folks, stood up and applauded. Somethinghad happened in the hearts of these people in Australia. The white folks, ourAboriginal brothers and sisters, and we haven't solved all these problemstogether, but let me tell you, there was a new beginning because we had gonenot just to the head, we'd gone also to the heart.
So where does that conclude in terms of thegreat question that we've been asked to address this evening, which is thefuture of U.S.-China relations? The head says there's a way forward. The headsays there is a policy framework, there's a common narrative, there's amechanism through regular summitry to do these things and to make them better.But the heart must also find a way to reimagine the possibilities of theAmerica-China relationship, and the possibilities of China's future engagementin the world. Sometimes, folks, we just need to take a leap of faith not quiteknowing where we might land.
In China, they now talk about the ChineseDream. In America, we're all familiar with the term "the AmericanDream." I think it's time, across the world, that we're able to think alsoof something we might also call a dream for all humankind. Because if we dothat, we might just change the way that we think about each other.
That's my challenge to America. That's mychallenge to China. That's my challenge to all of us, but I think where there'sa will and where there is imagination we can turn this into a future driven bypeace and prosperity and not once again repeat the tragedies of war.
I thank you.
Chris Anderson: Thanks so much for that.Thanks so much for that. It feels like you yourself have a role to play in thisbridging. You, in a way, are uniquely placed to speak to both sides.
Kevin Rudd: Well, what we Australians dobest is organize the drinks, so you get them together in one room, and wesuggest this and suggest that, then we go and get the drinks. But no, look, forall of us who are friends of these two great countries, America and China, youcan do something. You can make a practical contribution, and for all you goodfolks here, next time you meet someone from China, sit down and have aconversation. See what you can find out about where they come from and whatthey think, and my challenge for all the Chinese folks who are going to watchthis TED Talk at some time is do the same. Two of us seeking to change theworld can actually make a huge difference. Those of us up the middle, we canmake a small contribution.
CA: Kevin, all power to you, my friend.Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you, folks.

我的提议很简单：我们可以在建设性现实主义框架上，为了共同目标来建造这个基础。什么意思呢？就是对我们有分歧的事物，要面对现实，以一种合适可控的方法，不让任何差异导致战争或冲突，直到我们找到外交手段去解决。两国在双边，区域，以及全球对话上要有建设性，这对全人类都会有好处。建立促进亚洲合作的区域机构，一个亚太共同体。在全球范围内开始更广泛的合作，像两国去年年末那样，携手合力共同对付全球气候变化问题，而不是对着干。

当然，只有在你们有了共同机制以及共同政治意图时才能达到以上目标。这些都是可以做到的，但问题是，这些能单独实现吗？这是我们大脑告诉我们要去做的，但我们的内心呢？

谈到如何将两个历史差异巨大的民族捏到一起，我在澳洲时有一点小经验。也就是我向澳大利亚土着们道歉的时候。这是澳洲政府，澳洲国会，也是为澳洲人民清算的一天，在对澳洲原住民无情虐待200年后，是我们白种人为此道歉的时候了。

重要的是，我记得当他们来听道歉的时候，我看着那些澳洲本土人民的脸，这是一种很特别的经历。例如，老妇人们对我述说他们五岁时，被人从父母身边夺走的故事，像这边这位女士；当原住民老人们进入国会大厦时，我能够去拥抱他们并亲吻他们。对我来说是很特别的事，有一位老妇人对我说，她这辈子第一次被白人亲吻，她当时已经年过70了，这是个悲伤的故事。

我记得这个家庭跟我说“你知道吗，我们从北边一路开车来到堪培拉，来到了这里，一路开过乡村。他们在道歉会后的回家路上，在一家咖啡馆停下来要了杯奶昔，他们安静地，试探性地，小心翼翼地，走进这家咖啡馆，有点不安。我想你们知道我在说什么，但在道歉会那天之后，发生了什么呢？咖啡馆里的每个人，每个白种人，都站起来鼓掌，澳洲人民心里有了变化。白人和我们的土着兄弟姐妹，尽管我们还没有一起把所有问题都解决掉，但我告诉你们，我们有了一个新的开始，因为我们不但用脑去思考，我们更用心去感受。

所以就我们今晚所提出的那个大问题，就是中美关系的未来这一问题，我讲的这个故事的启发在哪呢？大脑告诉我们前方有路，大脑告诉我们有一个政策框架，有共同的语言，我们可以通过常规峰会这样的途径去做这些事情，改善这些事情。但我们的心也必须寻找途径去实现中美关系的这些可能性，去实现未来中国与世界交流的可能性。各位，有时候即使我们不知道下一步会落在哪里，也要满怀信心迈出这一步。

在中国，人们在谈论中国梦，而在美国，我们已经对“美国梦”很熟悉了。我觉得是时候全世界思考一下我们可以称之为“人类梦”的东西了。因为如果我们这么做了，我们就有可能会改变对对方的想法。

这是我给美国的挑战，也是我给中国的挑战，这是我给我们所有人的挑战。我觉得只要我们有愿望，有想象力，我们就能通过和平繁荣的方式将之实现，而不是再重蹈战争悲剧的覆辙。

谢谢大家。

主持人：非常感谢，非常感谢，看来你在连接双方上扮演者重要的角色，因为你的位置比较特别，可以与双方沟通。

陆克文：嗯，我们澳洲人们最擅长的就是组织活动和喝酒。所以如果你把他们召集到一个房间来，然后我们提议这提议那，提议之后就去喝酒。但其实没这么简单，我们都是中美两国的朋友，是可以为此做点什么事的，是可以做出实际贡献的。在座的所有朋友们，当你下一次见到中国人的时候，坐下来，聊聊天，看你能不能发现他们是来自哪里的，他们有什么样的想法。我对所有准备看这个视频的中国朋友们也提出同样的挑战。只要我们双方一起来寻找改变世界的方法，我们就一定能做出巨大的改变。而我们这些处在中间的人也可以做出些小贡献。

主持人：凯文，加油，我的朋友，谢谢你。

陆克文：谢谢你，谢谢大家。



TheAlphadog
I liked Kevin when he was Prime Minister,far better than our current PM.

我喜欢陆克文当总理的时候，比现在的总理强多了。

JustAUsername13
ALMOST ANYBODY, could do a better job thanAbbott. Unfortunately, none of these people are currently in the Liberal Party.

任何人都比艾伯特强，不幸的是，自由党里再也没有这种人了。

JustAUsername13
+Bob Turnbull might have been a good PM inthe past but sometime after he stopped leading the Liberals, he became a yesmanto the Institute of Public Affairs just like Abbott. I'd prefer Abbott as PM,at least he stupidity makes his corruption more apparent.

他过去可能是个好总理，但是不再领导自由党之后，他有时候在公共事务上的表态也像艾伯特一样和稀泥了。我更喜欢艾伯特当总理，至少他很愚蠢，所以腐败起来会更明显。

Dico
I think Kevin is one of the very fewWestern politicians who had a very good understanding of the Chinese mentality.He is also one of the very few who honestly believe in making a better andpeaceful world in working with Asians. He got my utmost respect.

我认为陆克文是少有的十分了解中国人思维的西方政客之一。他也是少有的真心想和亚洲一起共建和平世界的人。我对他致以最高的致敬。

gnarkillkicksass
As an Aussie who grew up and worked there -no he does not. He comes across as a Canberrasuit without an angle but with good pronunciation.He single handily destroyed any chance for Aussie businesses to grow in China.Gillard put the final nails in the coffin and hence we're all back here afterdecades there. Rudd was a great little political toy for the unions - wellarticulated, spoke Mandarin (albeit with many, many mistakes) and prounion to the point Chinawanted expansion over his pro CFMEU,AWUetc stance which means nothing, and meant nothing to investors on both sides.

“我是土生土长在澳工作的澳洲人”——不，他不是。他举止得体口音纯正，一手摧毁了澳洲对华贸易增长的机会。吉拉德钉上了棺材上的最后一个钉子，从此我们就在几十年后又回到了原点。陆克文就是工会的一个巨大小玩具——能言善辩，会说中文（尽管错误百出），支持工会，支持能源联盟，支持澳洲工人联盟等等。而他的这些立场毫无意义，对两国的投资者来说也是毫无意义。

ex0duzz
As an Australian born chinese(ABC), i agreewith your sentiments and couldn't disagree more with gnark. Sounds like a Laborhater. He made us look good, and chinese liked him. Abbott on the other hand..fucking embarrassment to the world and to Australia.

作为一名澳大利亚出生的华人，我感同身受，但我非常反对gnark的说法，听起来你好像很憎恨共党。陆克文让我们华人看起来很好，我们都喜欢他。而另一方面，艾伯特就是全世界和澳洲的耻辱。

Jonathan Popham
It's pretty adorable and sweet to me thatthey call us the beautiful country. They used to call us "GoldMountain" whenever they first started coming during the gold rush. Ourhistory of how we treated China is shameful, I hope that we can work togetherin the future.

他们管我们叫“美丽的国家”，真是太可爱太甜蜜了。第一次淘金热的时候他们还管我们叫“金山”。历史上我们对中国人的所作所为真是可耻，我希望未来我们能携手合作。

杨辉
We call USA as 美利坚合众国，or 美国 for short.The full name means that a country which is beautiful, powerful and strong.

我们管美国叫美利坚合众国，全名的意思就是一个没理，有力量而坚强的国家。

Ray Chang
旧金山 (the "Old Gold Mountain") is Chinese for San Francisco (Isuppose it came from the gold rush).  美国 is Chinesefor the U.S..  I wish there were more peoplein the U.S. who understand the history and culture of China and there were morepeople in China who understand the history and culture of the U.S.
Unfortunately, there are far more people inboth countries who don't understand the other side.  Furthermore, they don't make the effort toget to know the other side.  Thehot-heads from both countries tend to dominate the social media and the mediaof two countries aren't exactly helping.

旧金山是圣弗朗西斯科的中文名称，美国是US的中文名称。我希望中美人民能够对彼此历史文化有更多的了解。
不幸的是，两国里对对方不了解的人远远更多，进一部说，他们也不会努力想去了解对方。两国里头脑发热的人占领了社交媒体，而两国的媒体事实上也毫无助益。

Bud Charles
Why can't we have Kevin Rudd back? TonyAbbott sucks.


为什么我们不让陆克文回来？托尼艾伯特真是太差劲了。


xPokemonPlayerx
+Bud Charles So did Gillard.


吉拉德也一样。


Bud Charles
+xPokemonPlayerx Well Gillard juststagnated the country, Abbott is sending it backwards. Not that there's anydifference between the two main parties now anyway.


吉拉德只是停滞了国家的发展，而艾伯特则是让国家倒退。反正这两个大党之间没有什么差别。


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1503nemanja
If the US and China become friends then Firefly and if they become enemies then Fallout :D


如果中美成为朋友，就是《萤火虫》；如果成了敌人，就是《辐射》:D


Sarah Joy
omg! you hit the nail on the head

天了，你真是一语道破天机。


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POLAR BEAR
八个字总结下中美关系：斗而不破，和而不同


Joseph Thorpe
If I remember correctly the USA saved yourbutt in WW2 when little japan was whipping you good. China was beat by smallManchuria and then by tiny Japan. To bad you let Mao destroy your country anddid not follow us into the golden age of modern western style democracy likeJapan did.You would be 50 years ahead of where you are now if you had. One dayyou will be free and all will be able to use facebook and youtube, I am willingto bet on it.


如果我没记错的话，当日本人在二战狠揍你们的时候是美国救了你们的命。中国先是被小满洲打，然后是被小日本打。最坏的是，你们没有像日本那样追随我们进入当代西式民主的黄金时代，而是让毛摧毁了你们的国家。如果你们当初采用了西式民主的话，会比现在领先五十年【译者注：卧槽，牛逼了，那不是超过美国了，美国现在也没领先谁五十年】。我愿意大都，总有一天你们会拥有自由，能够使用非死不可和油土鳖。


POLAR BEAR
+Joseph Thorpe American soldiers' braveryin WW2 should be praised and memorize by future generations. BUT unfortunatelyyou let Democrats and Republicans tear your country apart. Now USA is fallingapart.Thanks god. I prefer to have a strong and unified country. Interesting,why do you think using fb and youtube equals to freedom? btw products like fband youtube are fully replaceable...maybe you should one day try somethingnew.


美军士兵在二战里的英勇表现值得赞扬，应该被后辈铭记。但不幸的是，你们让民主党和共和党撕裂了你们的国家，美国正在分崩离析。感谢上帝，我更愿意有一个强大而团结的国家。有意思，为什么你把使用非死不可、油土鳖与自由划等号？顺便说一句，像非死不可和油土鳖这样的产品是完全可以被替代的，你该尝试点新东西了。


Rich91
+Joseph Thorpe To be honest, I have been toChina many many times, and while there may be hiccups and all,overall, the country has been developing for the betterment for its people andeverything is generally in an upward trajectory. Even if it fails to meet manyexpectations, China(and india as well) will eventually become a heavyweight powerin the same league as the USA simply by the virtue of its size and population.A lot of stereotypes portrayed by the Western media are merely talking pointsthat should not be taken seriously. You know the funny thing about China isthat while the outside media portrayed it to be a monolithic totalitarianregime with far too much restrictions, I soon discovered to my dismay that inmany cases, the opposite is true that a lot of folks, especially the rural onessimply enjoys too much freedom, and don't generally abide by the rules. Also,the point about Mao is that he actually had good intentions for China-torapidly industrialize and modernize, however his economic policies weremisguided and caused disastrous results like the great famine. You can say thathe should be personally held responsible for copying the idiotic economicpolicies of USSR, but at that time, no one really knew any better in China.After all, the Qing empire, Nationalist China government had all trieddifferent approaches(Constitutional monarchy, parliamentary democracy, militarydictatorship) and failed miserably at producing any tangible results. Communismthen seemed like an attractive alternative, considering that USSR had recentlysuccessfully industrialized itself. You seem like an open-minded and reasonableindividual, so my suggestion is learn about the history and culture of acountry before judging its current affairs. Don't merely stick to the talkingpoints of the Western media, come see for yourself and then judge, bearing inmind the history and culture of China.


说实话，我去过中国很多次，尽管有美中不足，但总体上来说，这个国家在朝着有利于人民的方向发展，一切都在朝着向上的轨道前进。即使它在很多方面还没有达到预期，但中国（还有印度）仅凭自身大小和人口数量，就终将会成为像美国一样的重量级大国。美国媒体描绘的刻板印象仅仅是为了制造谈资，不要当真。最有意思的是，外国媒体把中国描绘成一个限制极多的庞大极权主义政权，而我却失望的发现，很多时候事情恰好相反。很多人，特别是农村地区的人享有了太多的自由，他们普遍的不遵守规则。说到毛，实际上他的本意是好的，向加速中国的现代化和工业化，然而他的经济政策误入歧途，导致了诸如大饥荒这样的灾难。你可以说他个人应该为抄袭苏联经济政策的愚蠢做法负责，但在当时的中国，也没有人知道更好的办法。总之，清帝国和国民党政府已经尝试了所有方式（君主立宪制，一回事民主，军事独裁），并在产生了一些实质性损害之后都悲惨的失败了。如此之后，鉴于苏联在当时取得了工业化的成功，共产主义看上去就成了一个有吸引力的选择。你看上去是一个思维开阔有理智的人，所以我建议你在对一个国家的当前状况做出评判前，学习一下这个国家的文化和历史。不要只抓着西方媒体的谈资不放，自己亲眼看看，把中国的历史文化了熟于胸之后再做出判断。


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Bruce Wayne
Somewhat assuming the downvotes are basedon him and not what he is saying.


不知怎么的，总感觉点踩的都是因为他这个人本身，而不是因为他说了什么。


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PrimePerception
I'm a business owner and an Englishteacher. I've lived in China and even owned a business there. I'll say, I cameinto this video being very critical. Many times people speak about China buthave no real idea of it.  Kevin though,understands both countries very well. He has made a great presentation and isvery accurate in his statements.


我是企业主也是英语老师。我曾在中国居住过，甚至还开了一家公司。我会说，我是带着批判性来看这个视频的。很多人谈起中国的时候根本就对中国一无所知，然而陆克文对两国都很了解。他的演讲很棒，说得很准确。


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meltingEyeballs
Question is, will the US weapons industriesagree with you?


问题是，美国的武器制造产业会同意你的说法吗？


AngAggrOrienDragon Sean
actually ,it should be WILL THE WALLSTREETS AGREE WITH YOU?


应该这么说，华尔街会同意你的说法吗？


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Lee Sk John
But it looks like Australia is joining USAin confronting China . Talk is useless if action does otherwise .


但是，澳大利亚看起来正加入到美国对抗中国的行列中，光说不做是没有用的。


finback2005
You did you research boi?


你小子调查过了？


jemszjemsz
Yea I did "Boi", Kevin Rudd wasAustralia's ex Labor leader. +youareajackass2005


是的，我做调查了。陆克文是前工党领袖，你个傻逼。


Joshua Clarke
Lee Sk John I wouldn't think so. Say thatdid happen Australia relies directly on china for money and sustaining way oflife. If we did confront china, Australia would be crippled economically.However we are incredibly socio-economically connected to the US as wellplacing Aus in a difficult predicament stuck between the two globalsuperpowers.


我不这么认为，澳大利亚可是靠中国赚钱生活。如果我们真的和中国发生冲突，澳大利亚经济会受到损害。我们和美国的社会经济联系太紧密了，这让澳大利亚在两个世界大国中间陷入了两难境地。


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mhtinla
"China is on the march!!"
Yeah... according to a Fortune survey, morethan 60% of the affluent Chinese people have already immigrated to anothercountry, or considering doing so. They are definitely on the march.



“中国正在行进中！！”
是啊，根据《财富》杂志的调查，超过60%的中国富人已经移民或是正在考虑移民。他们当然实在进行中。


mhtinla
Kevin failed to differentiate Chineseruling class from the general public. The rulers are more concerned about theirown people (or the rise of them) than conflict with US. When people get rich,they will want more freedom and they will detest all the censorship, thoughtcontrol, and propaganda, which the rulers rely on to rule. Hence the massimmigration. China is more likely to implode,hopefully peacefully, than to go to war with US.
On further thought, I can DECLARE it'simpossible for China to go to war with US, considering that all the children ofthe Chinese ruling class (the princelings) either live or enroll inuniversities in US or its allies and CIA keeps track of them.


陆克文没有把中国的统治阶层和普通大众区分开来。统治者关注自己的人民（或是他们的崛起）胜过关注中美冲突。当人民变富的时候，他们会想要更多的自由，会厌恶一切的审查、思想控制和政治宣传，而统治者正是依靠这些东西进行统治。因此就发生了大规模移民。中国更像是要从内部崩溃了，希望能和平崩溃，别和美国打起来。
进一步想，鉴于所有中国统治阶级的孩子（小太子们）要么住在美国和美国盟国，要么是被这些国家的学校录取，而CIA可以追踪到他们，我敢说中国不可能和美国打起来。


Bt Tan
+mhtinla cia too busy keeping track andtapping it's own citizens' telephone


CIA正忙着追踪自己公民的电话呢。


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Douglas Boucheix
Kevin is cool , He got backstabbed That wasdirty


陆克文很棒，他遭人暗算，这手段太脏了。


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SmultronsyltNatha
This talk gave me some hope. I have alwaysassumed that China and the US would start a war eventually. But maybe it can beavoided, if both parties are enough motivated. The question is if they areenough motivated...


这个演讲给了我一些希望。我一直认为中美必有一战，但如果双方都积极一点，也许，这一战是可以避免的。问题就是他们的积极性不够……


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Stewie Griffin
Usa needs to get out of east and let themsolve their issues! For example let japan face the consequences for their brutalcrimes against china! FFS their youth thinks the nankingmassacre is a made up lie.


美国应该从中东抽身，让中东人自己解决问题！比如，日本对中国犯下野蛮罪行的后果让日本自己去面对！该死的，他们的年轻人认为南京大屠杀是编造的谎言。


Konayo
You want to undoglobalization?


你是想取消全球化？


Swarfly
Yes because people who never did thenanking massacre deserve the same punishment.


是啊，因为那些从没犯下南京大屠杀罪行的人也应得到同样的惩罚。


Stewie Griffin
+Swarfly no but their government deservesto pay some sort of price. Dont wanna put words into yourmouth but feels like you think its okey to commit massacres and justdeny it ever happened. Japan is not the only country thats in a tough spot.Turkey for example have to recognize the armenian genoicde for them to joinEU.


我不是这个意思，我的意思是日本政府应该付出点代价。不想逼你说些不想说的话，然后你仍认为犯下屠杀也没什么，甚至不承认发生过屠杀。日本是唯一如此顽固的国家，就连土耳其为了加入欧盟都不得不承认了亚美尼亚种族屠杀。


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AustralianLeprechaun
The US empire will not go quietly but itwill go


美利坚帝国的逝去是不会平静的，但它还是会逝去。


Kostja Vastenhout
Yeah.. saying that while using an Americanphone, with American software and apps, drinking coffee from Americanstarbucks, watching American movies and reading their books.
Good luck


你说这话的时候却用着美国的手机，用着美国的软件和应用程序，喝着美国星巴克的咖啡，看着美国电影读着美国人写的书。
祝你好运。


Money M
+Aussie Goonie Bullshit. Most of if notanything great "conceived" in US, is created by foreign scientists, engineersand inventors. Or created in foreign countries all together and then bought outby US.


胡扯，美国“拥有”的牛逼东西，就算不是全部也得说大部分都是由外国科学家、工程师和发明家创造的。或是由所有美国外的国家一起创造，然后被美国买断的。


Joella Z
+Aussie Goonie I wouldn't care if Americacured cancer. Do you realise that China invented paper? If you hate them somuch never use paper please. Of course, I know that also sounds stupid, so II'm going to take back what I just said because I don't won't to be like anidiotic American.


我不管美国能不能治愈癌症，你知道纸是中国发明的吗？如果你这么恨中国就永远也别用纸。当然，我知道刚才这话有点蠢，所以我收回，因为我不想像一个愚蠢的美国人一样。


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Maeve Preston
This was a brilliant talk, a lot of thetalks about politics and economics etc can be quite boring or biased but thiswas really well put together


这是一个才华横溢的演讲，很多关于政治和经济的演讲都非常无聊或是充满偏见，这个演讲在这两方面都做的非常好。


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胡万里
是的，澳大利亚政府向被迫害的原住民道歉了，但整个西方社会呢？该不该为他们这几百年来对全世界其他地方的人民犯下的屠杀、强奸、掠夺、破坏、贩卖人口、侵占家园等等罪行道个歉呢？哪怕仅仅是口头上的，也一丝一毫都没有。因为他们根本不觉得这是一种犯罪，我强你弱，我欺负你就是天经地义的。以这种寡廉鲜耻的道德为基础发展起来的西方民主，彻头彻尾就是一种耍流氓的虚伪！


ziru zhang
澳大利亚什么时候道歉了，象征性的陪了点地，联合国的原住民法案依然投的是反对票

Ravi Kanth
I haven't heard anything concrete anduseful in this talk

在这个演讲里，我没听到任何实际有用的东西。

Look
They are supposed to get you thinking, notoffer a complicated solution to incredibly insurmountable issues.

他们是为了引发你思考，而不是为难以攻克的难题提供一个复杂的解决方案。

Rocky Ahmad
I always liked Kevin. Australia misses youmate.

我一直都很喜欢陆克文，澳大利亚人民想念你。

Adam Thornton
One thing worth noting is that some of theUnited States' friends are world powers in their own right. Most notablythe economy of the European Union is around the same size as the US and Chineseeconomies, and its population is over half a billion. And throwing in Japan(pop 127m), South Korea (pop 50m), Canada, Australia and Taiwan alone wouldgive a total population of more than 1 billion and a combined real GDP of over$40 trillion.
In short, developed liberal democraciesstill form the most powerful geopolitical bloc in history, China is theonly other to wield economic power on a somewhat similar scale,Russia isn't even close.

值得一提的是，美国的一些朋友本身就是世界大国。尤其是欧盟的经济规模和美国中国都差不多，人口也超过了五亿。然后再加上日本（1.27亿），韩国（五千万），加拿大，澳大利亚和台湾，这些国家加起来总人口超过了10亿，GDP加起来超过了40万亿美元。
简而言之，今天自由民主的发达国家仍是历史上最强大的地缘政治集团，中国是唯一一个拥有相似规模经济力量的国家，俄罗斯连边都沾不上。

AngAggrOrienDragon Sean
combine？lolGDP per capitalmeans nothing when talking about power of governments.
If u wanna analyze individual livingstandard,use PCDI, CPI and Gink coefficient.
GDP generally just reflects economy of thewhole nation.U can't combine

GDP加起来？在对比政府实力的时候谈人均GDP毫无意义。如果你想分析人均生活水品，要用PCDI，CPI和基尼系数。一般来说GDP反映了整个国家的经济情况，你不要加起来。


Cosmo Politan
This wasn't informative...

没什么用。

DarkZork9590
US and China are not doomed for conflictsuch as US and British are not in conflict when US overtook Britishas superpower after WW2

美国和中国不一定要发生冲突的，就像二战后美国超过英国成为超级大国的时候，美国和英国也没发生冲突。

Xuanming Lu
That's not overtaken, Britain was a dyingman struggle to survive, there's no competition between those two, Germany didthe job for the U.S., hitler was probably the best opportunity America had inpast 200 years, without him, America would never be as powerful

那可不是赶超，当时的英国半死不活在为了生存挣扎，两国之家根本就没有竞争，德国替美国干了活（削弱英国）。希特勒可能是美国过去两百年里遇到的最好机会，没有他，美国永远也不会成为强权。

the capitalistic powersare the only reason for a fight with china,destroy them and you destroy theworld.of course idiots will be propagandized into fighting a war for the 1percent.

争夺资本主义权力是向中国开展的唯一理由，毁了中国也就是毁了世界。当然，会有那么些傻瓜会为了那百分之一的人而鼓动宣传战争。

Euan Smith
they don't understand his mad Australianhumour :P

观众不懂他那疯狂的澳洲幽默，哈哈。

CiscoKid
The rise of China in the west we call it,but in China its different, they call it the reemergence, an once great powerof the world is going for reclamation.

中国崛起是西方的叫法，中国自己叫复兴，一个曾经的世界大国正在恢复元气。

LMAO how did this guy get a gig?
Anyone who isn't from Australia, let megive you fair warning: when he says "I'm here to help"it may not be the help that you want.

笑死我了，这家伙是怎么得到这个演讲机会的？
我给那些非澳大利亚人一个警告：当他说“我是来帮忙的”的时候，一般都不是你想让他帮的那种忙。

Josh M
Very true.

太对了。

Heng Xie
Though so many years went by, as a Chinese,when I see the" No dogs and Chinese allowed" sign again in thisvideo,  I still feel angry andhumiliated. That kind of feeling is rooted in my mind. I think that's whyChinese people learn so hard, work so hard. We want to be strong. We don't wantto be humiliated again.

虽然这么多年过去了，但作为一个中国人，当我在视频里看到“华人与狗不得入内”的标志时，我仍然感到了愤怒与耻辱，这种感觉已经根植在了我的脑海里。我觉得这就是为什么中国人会如此努力的学习，如此努力的工作。我们不想再次被羞辱。

RADelaney
People who argue and attack each other onYouTube are complete wastes of my oxygen. By even posting this very comment, I am compromising my own integrity& standards. Youtube should get rid of the comments section altogether,because it literally serves no useful purpose & only does harm by allowingconspiracy theorists & other short-sighted individuals to voice theirmindless, cynical, destructive & uneducated opinions.  Youtube commenting is clearly an activitymost suitable for morons & ignorant assholes. Get a life jackasses!

那些在油土鳖上互相争斗的人完全就是在浪费我的氧气。甚至现在这个评论，也是我向自己的正直和做人标准做出妥协后才写的。油土鳖应该把评论区去掉，因为根本没有什么用，只对别人造成伤害，阴谋家和目光短浅的人会在评论区说出他们那些不经大脑的、愤世嫉俗的、有害的、毫无教养的观点。很明显，在油土鳖写评论是最适合低能儿和无知蠢货的一种活动。
找点正事干吧，傻逼们！