法新社调查：2017年中国经济超出预期 [美国媒体]

China's economy is forecast to have picked up pace in 2017 and analysts were upbeat about the coming year (AFP Photo/Johannes EISELE)

2017年中国经济预计将会回暖，分析人士对即将到来的一年表示乐观（法新社照片/ Johannes EiselE）

Beijing (AFP) - China's economy exceeded Beijing's annual growth target in 2017, analysts said in an AFP survey, overcoming the government's battles against massive debt and pollution-spewing factories.

北京（法新社） - 分析人士接受法新社的调查报告时称，2017年中国经济在超过了北京制定的年度增长目标，政府在与大规模债务和污染排放工厂的斗争中获胜。

The world's second largest economy expanded 6.8 percent in 2017, much better than the official target of around 6.5 percent, according to the poll of 11 financial experts.

对11位金融专家的调查显示，2017年全球第二大经济体增长率为6.8％，远高于6.5％左右的官方目标。

The reading is also an improvement on the 6.7 percent seen the previous year, which marked its worst performance in a quarter of a century.

这一数据也比前一年的6.7％有所上涨 – 这个数字是二十五年来最糟糕的表现。

Premier Li Keqiang last week said he expected growth to have come in "around 6.9 percent".

李克强总理上周表示，他预计过去一年年全年经济增长“达到6.9％左右”。

However, the forecast comes as fresh questions were raised about the veracity of the government's data after an area in the northern municipality of Tianjin became the latest place to be found to have inflated its own readings.

然而，这一预测出炉之际，中国北部直辖市天津的一个区最新被发现虚增自己的数据，政府的数据的真实性也引起了人们的质疑。

The government statistics bureau will release its official figures on Thursday.

政府统计局将在周四公布官方数据。

"China's economic growth beat market expectations in 2017," JP Morgan Chase economist Shaoyu Guo told AFP.

摩根大通经济学家郭绍宇（音译）告诉法新社：“2017年中国经济增长超过市场预期。

Guo noted that expansion in the first three quarters of the year were "led by infrastructure and real estate investment, and supported by solid consumption and improved external demand".

郭指出，今年前三个季度的扩张主要是“由基础设施和房地产投资拉动，坚实的消费和外需改善支撑”。

Trade continued to be a major driver of growth as data last week showed exports and imports jumped in 2017, thanks to a pick-up in the global economy with the crucial US and European markets seeing strong recoveries.

贸易继续成为经济增长的主要动力，上周数据显示，由于全球经济回升，美国和欧洲市场出现强劲复苏，2017年出口和进口出现大幅增长。

The improvement at home comes in spite of government efforts to reduce the country's substantial debt and to combat its persistent pollution problems, which were both expected to curb GDP growth.

国内的改善仍在继续。尽管政府努力减少国家的大量债务，并努力解决长期存在的污染问题，但预计这些问题都还会抑制国内生产总值的增长。

- Positive surprises -

- 正面的惊喜 -

The economy eased slightly in the last quarter to 6.7 percent, the analysts said, from 6.8 percent in the three months prior.

分析人士表示，上个季度经济略有放缓，降至6.7％，而此前三个月为6.8％。

"October-November data showed moderation in the manufacturing sector," Guo said, "partly reflecting stricter implementation of environmental protection policies going into the winter months."

“十到十一月份的数据显示制造业有所放缓，”郭说，“这在一定程度上反映了进入冬季后环境保护政策的严格执行。”

Analysts said while policymakers are expected to focus on deleveraging in 2018, last year showed unexpected gains despite debt reduction efforts.

分析人士表示，尽管去年努力减少债务，但出现了意想不到的增长，预计2018年政策制定者将重点放在去杠杆化，。

"In terms of China (on a macro level), 2017 was -- again -- full of surprises, but the good news is that most of them are positive," Larry Hu, the Macquarie Group's head of China economics, said in a report this month.

麦格理集团中国经济主管胡伟俊（Larry Hu）在本月的一份报告中表示：“就中国而言（宏观层面），2017年再次充满了惊喜，但好消息是其中大多数都是正面的。”

Wei Yao, chief China economist at Societe Generale, predicted continued favourable gains this year.

兴业银行首席中国经济学家姚伟预计，今年中国经济将继续获得有利的增长。

"The Chinese economy seems to have ended 2017 on a strong footing and this momentum, especially the part fuelled by external demand, may carry on well into 2018," Wei told AFP.

他对法新社道：“中国经济似乎以强劲的势头告别了2017年，而且这一势头，尤其是外部需求推动的部分，可能延续到2018年。”

"We expect decent export growth to continue in the coming months, and there may well be upside surprises in light of continuing strong data from all the major economies."

“我们预计在未来几个月中，出口增长仍将保持良好态势，而且鉴于所有主要经济体显示强劲的数据，可能会出现惊喜。”

Analysts predicted, however, that the housing market would see increasingly slow sales, with Hu saying that how the government addresses property taxes "is the key thing to watch over the next couple of years".

不过，分析人士预计，房地产市场销售将会越来越缓慢，胡伟俊表示，政府如何处理房产税是“未来几年关注的重点”。

- Faked data -

- 伪造的数据 -

Premier Li said last week he saw a "better-than-expected" outlook for China.

李总理上周表示，他看到中国的经济发展“好于预期”。

"The crux of why the Chinese economy was able to perform so well is that we insisted on not implementing a flood of stimuli" and instead sought to foster "new sources of growth", he said.

他说：“中国经济之所以能够表现得如此出色，关键在于我们坚持不实施大规模的刺激政策，而是力求培育“新的增长来源”。

Beijing is trying to rebalance China's economic model from one dependent on exports and state investment to domestic consumption.

中国政府正试图重新平衡中国的经济模式，从依赖出口和国家投资转向国内消费。

As the government prepares to release its growth data, Tianjin Radio, a station run by the government of the northern municipality, said its Binhai New Area had inflated the area's gross domestic product to be more than 1 trillion yuan ($155 billion) in 2016.

在政府准备发布其增长数据之际，市政府运营的天津广播电台称，滨海新区将该地区的2016年国内生产总值虚报到了1万亿元人民币（合1550亿美元）。

The figure has since been adjusted to 665 billion yuan, Tianjin Radio said in a statement on its official social media account last week, which has since been taken down.

天津广播电台上周在官方社交媒体上发表声明说，这一数字已经调整到了6650亿元人民币。

According to The Paper, a state-funded news site, the Binhai New Area has revised its 2016 annual GDP to be more than 30 percent lower than initially stated.

据澎湃新闻报道，滨海新区已将2016年全年国内生产总值（GDP）调整至比原先低30％以上。

Last year, the governor of the northeastern industrial province of Liaoning admitted that it had falsified economic data for years.

去年，东北工业大省辽宁省的省长承认，多年来一直伪造经济数据。

Officials and analysts in China and abroad -- including Li -- have long questioned the accuracy of Chinese economic figures, which many suspect are often manipulated to make the economy look more robust than it really is.

中国的官员和海内外的分析人士 - 包括李克强 - 长期以来一直质疑中国经济数据的准确性，许多人怀疑，中国经济数据常常被操纵，以使中国经济看上去比实际情况更为强劲。



Fema Camp Counselor 12 hours ago
You have China and then you have the rest of the world, they are the sleeping hippo in the pond that ignores the crocodiles. Don't wake the sleeping hippo.

你拥有中国，你就会拥有世界其他地方，他们是在池塘里无视鳄鱼的沉睡的河马。不要叫醒睡着的河马。

memo 17 hours ago
just like everything in China, is all fake and make up numbers...they are just inflating the stats so they can boast about it, but behind it, most people still lives in porverty, development is still very slow and irregular and the stock market is as volatile as it can be

就像中国其他的一切东西，都是假的，编造的数字......他们会夸大统计数据来自我炫耀，但在这背后，大多数人还生活在贫困之中，发展非常缓慢而无规律，股票市场反复无常

Sino-USA-Troll 3 hours ago
Have you ever been to China? If not, you have no say here. If you have, which part of China have you ever been to? What does that area look like? When did you go there? Stop being so ignorant when you are not even here in China. Try to watch youtube videos shot by the African guy named Serpentza and an American guy named Laowhy86. Watch their videos.

你去过中国吗？如果没有，你在这里就没有发言权。如果你去过，那去的是是中国哪里？那个地区是什么样子的？你什么时候去的？既然你不在中国就别显示你的无知了。去看看由非洲人Serpentza和一个名叫Laowhy86的美国人拍摄的YouTube视频。观看他们的视频了解一下。

dcphony 10 hours ago
China's growth is at the expense of U.S. communities....

中国的增长是以损害美国经济体为代价的……

Jack 14 hours ago
i stopped buying products from china ! if americans would go on the internet they will find products made in america and help our country get back to where we were 40 years ago, while shopping for a beanie cap at stores and walmart it seemed i could only buy from china, i did not buy !!! i later found a beanie cap for same price MADE IN AMERICA, ON THE INTERNET , same thing with my shirts , i pay a little more but they are made in america , i will never buy another shirt from any other country, i will search everywhere for an american made product before buying from china , and if i do not find it i will do without that product,same with cars , people say oh my car is made in america , yes it is , but all the profit goes to another country , we are making other countries rich while our neighbors go without a job , PLEASE america wake up , you must help !!! search and you will find that american made product , DO NOT BUY FROM OTHER COUNTRIES !! help rebuild our country

我已不再购买中国的产品！如果美国人上网，他们会找到美国制造的产品，并帮助我们的国家回到我们40年前的样子。而在商店和沃尔玛购物，似乎我只能买到中国的东西，所以我没有买！！！后来我在网上发现了一个同样价格的无檐小便帽，美国制造的，和我的衬衫一样，我多付了一点钱，但是它们是在美国制造的。我永远不会从别的国家买另一件衬衫。我会到处搜索美国制造的产品，如果我没有找到，我会选择不要这种产品。和汽车一样，人们会说哦，我的车是在美国制造的，是的，但所有的利润都流向了另一个国家。我们正在让其他国家变得富有，却让我们的邻居失业。拜托美国快醒过来，你们必须帮帮它！多搜索你会发现美国制造的产品，不要从其他国家购买！帮助重建我们的国家吧

Timk 9 hours ago
they could fix the housing market there by using 30 year terms . and letting people own homes . the way it is now you sort of just pay in 5 years and own nothing . yu can live there 80 years .

他们可以花30年的时间来解决那里的住房市场问题。让人们拥有房子。现在的情况是，你只需要支付5年，不拥有任何东西，但你可以住在那里80年。

Marina 18 hours ago
Rents are very high, regualr Chinese cannot afford the cost of living in China with the salaries they get paid.

租金非常高，一般的中国人拿到的薪水付不起在中国生活的费用。

Kenny D 10 hours ago
you can't trust anything China says

你不能相信中国所说的一切

Thong 12 hours ago
China =Enron
中国=安然
（注：安然公司曾经是世界上最大的能源、商品和服务公司之一，后因爆出假账丑闻破产）

Mr Czarkastic 3 hours ago
The Chinese have been beating their expectations since chairman Mao. I believed them then and I believe them now.

自毛主席以来，中国人一直在超出他们自己的期望。我以前相信他们，我现在也相信他们。