美国政府2018年将借贷近1兆美元，比去年增长了84% [美国媒体]

Government set to borrow nearly $1 trillion this year, an 84 percent jump from last year

美国政府2018年将借贷近1兆美元，比去年增长了84%
 

 
It was another crazy news week, so it's understandable if you missed a small but important announcement from the Treasury Department: The federal government is on track to borrow nearly $1 trillion this fiscal year - President Donald Trump's first full year in charge of the budget.
That's almost double what the government borrowed in fiscal year 2017.

又是一个疯狂的新闻周，所以如果你错过了这个新闻，那也是可以理解的：
美国财政部发布了虽然小但却很重要的一则公告---联邦政府在本财政年度将借款近1兆美元，这是唐纳德·特朗普总统负责预算的第一个年头，这几乎是美国政府在2017年借款金额的两倍。
 
Here are the exact figures: The U.S. Treasury expects to borrow $955 billion this fiscal year, according to a documents released Wednesday. It's the highest amount of borrowing in six years, and a big jump from the $519 billion the federal government borrowed last year.

以下是具体数据：星期三公布的一份文件显示，美国财政部预计本财政年度将借款9550亿美元。这是六年以来最高的借款金额，也是相对联邦政府去年借贷5190亿美元来说的一大跳跃。
 
Treasury mainly attributed the increase to the "fiscal outlook." The Congressional Budget Office was more blunt. In a report this week, the CBO said tax receipts are going to be lower because of the new tax law.

美国财政部将此次的财政预算增长主要归因于“财政前景”。而美国国会预算办公室对此的态度则更为坦率，在本周的一份报告中，国会预算办公室表示由于新税法的原因，政府税收收入将减少。
 
The uptick in borrowing is yet another complication in the heated debates in Congress over whether to spend more money on infrastructure, the military, disaster relief and other domestic programs. The deficit is already up significantly, even before Congress allots more money to any of these areas.

借款数额提升只是国会激烈辩论下的一个产物而已，同时国会还就是否在基础设施、军事、救灾和其他国内项目上投入更多资金这些问题展开同样激烈的辩论。在国会分配更多的钱到这些任何一个领域之前，财政赤字问题已经凸显出来了。
 
"We're addicted to debt," says Marc Goldwein, senior policy director at Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. He blames both parties for the situation.

“我们对借钱已经上瘾了，”美国尽责联邦预算委员会的高级政策主管马克•高德温说道。马克•高德温把这一情况归咎于美国两大党。
 
What's particularly jarring is this is the first time borrowing has jumped this much (as a share of GDP) in a non-recession time since Ronald Reagan was president, says Ernie Tedeschi, a former senior adviser to the U.S. Treasury who is now head of fiscal analysis at Evercore ISI. Under Reagan, borrowing spiked because of a buildup in the military, something Trump is advocating again.

这次借款引来特别多不和谐的原因是：这是自罗纳德·里根担任总统以来，非经济衰退时期第一次借款数额的大跳跃。Ernie Tedeschi说道。他曾任美国财政部高级顾问、现为美国投资银行EVERCORE ISI财政分析主管。在里根时期，借款数额增加是由于军事建设的投入增加，军事建设也是特朗普再次倡导的一个方面。
 
Trump didn't mention the debt - or the ongoing budget deficits - in his State of the Union address. The absence of any mention of the national debt was frustrating for Goldwein and others who warn that America has a major economic problem looming.
"It is terrible. Those deficits and the debt that keeps rising is a serious problem, not only in the long run, but right now," Harvard economist Martin Feldstein, a former Reagan adviser, told Bloomberg.

特朗普在他的国情咨文中并没有提及债务或者当前的预算赤字。特朗普对国家债务情况只字不提，这令马克•高德温等人大为沮丧，他们警告说，美国面临着一个一触即发的重大经济问题。
 
The White House got a taste of just how problematic this debt situation could get this week. Investors are concerned about all the additional borrowing and the likelihood of higher inflation, which is why the interest rates on U.S. government bonds hit the highest level since 2014. That, in turn, partly drove the worst weekly sell-off in the stock market in two years.

本周白宫感受到了这一债务状况可能会带来多大的问题。投资者们对所有新增的贷款以及可能上升的通胀率表示担忧。高通胀率是美国政府债券利率达到2014年来最高水平的原因。这反过来又部分推动了此后两年内最严重的股市抛售情况。
 
The belief in Washington and on Wall Street has long been that the U.S. government could just keep issuing debt because people around the world are eager to buy up this safe-haven asset. But there may be a limit to how much the market wants, especially if inflation starts rising and investors prefer to ditch bonds for higher-returning stocks.

长期以来，人们对美国的政治和经济一直信任有加，认为美国政府可以继续发行债券，因为世界各地的人们都渴望购买这种避险资产。但是市场需求量可能是有限的，尤其如果通货膨胀情况开始加剧的话，投资者为了更高回报的股票更愿意抛弃美国债券。
 
注释：safe-haven asset指随着市场变化，价格不会波动太大的一类较为稳定的资产，譬如黄金、美元，以及经常会被忽略的瑞士法郎、日元等。
 
"Some of my Wall Street clients are starting to talk recession in 2019 because of these issues. Fiscal policy is just out of control," says Peter Davis, a former tax economist in Congress who now runs Davis Capital Investment Ideas.

“我的一些华尔街客户因为这些问题已经开始谈论2019年的经济衰退。财政政策已然失控。曾任职于国会的税收经济学家、现经营戴维斯资本投资顾问公司的Peter Davis说道。
 
The Federal Reserve was also buying a lot of U.S. Treasury debt since the crisis, helping to beef up demand. But the Fed recently decided to stop doing that now that the economy has improved. It's another wrinkle as Treasury has to look for new buyers.

美联储自危机以来也在大量购买美国国债，帮助改善需求。但美联储最近决定停止这样做，因为经济已经好转。财政部必须寻找新买家，这是另一个问题。
 
Tedeschi, the former Treasury adviser to the Obama administration, calls it "concerning, but not a crisis." Still, he says it's a "big risk" to plan on borrowing so much in the coming years.
Trump's Treasury forecasts borrowing over $1 trillion in 2019 and over $1.1 trillion in 2020. Before taking office, Trump described himself as the "king of debt," although he campaigned on reducing the national debt.

在奥巴马时期曾任美国财政部高级顾问的Ernie Tedeschi称这一情况是“令人担忧，但不是一个危机”。他还表示要借这么多钱在未来几年内是有“大风险”的。
特朗普的财政部已经预报说要在2019年借款超过1兆美元，在2010年借款超过1.1兆美元。在上任之前，特朗普就自封为“债务之王”，尽管他在竞选的时候说要减轻国家债务情况。
 
注释：king of debt债务之王
在美国大选期间，特朗普在债务问题上屡有惊人之语。“美国现在是时候借钱了，而且还要借长期的债。”他声称作为一名和商业债务打过多年交道的商人，他总是可以在合适的时机以低廉的价格购回自己的债务。
 
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget predicts the U.S. deficit will hit $1 trillion by 2019 and stay there for a while. The latest borrowing figure - $955 billion - released this week was determined from a survey of bond market participants, who tend to be even faster to react to the changing policy landscape and change their forecasts.

美国尽责联邦预算委员会预测说，到2019年，美国的赤字将高达1兆美元，并将保持这一数据一段时间。本周公布的最新借款数据（9550亿美元）是根据对债券市场参与者的一项调查确定的，这些参与者往往对政策的变化反应更快，并以此改变他们的预测。
 
Both parties claim they want to be "fiscally responsible," but Goldwein says they both pass legislation that adds to the debt. Politicians argue this is the last time they'll pass a bill that makes the deficit worse, but so far, they just keep going.

美国两大党都声称他们要对财政“负责”，但美国尽责联邦预算委员会高级政策主管马克•高德温表示，两党都通过立法增加了债务。政客们认为这是他们最后一次通过让赤字情况更糟的法案了，但到目前为止，他们仍在继续。
 
The latest example of largesse is the GOP tax bill. It's expected to add $1 trillion or more to the debt, according to nonpartisan analysis from the Joint Committee on Taxation

根据无党派组织美国国会税收联合委员会的分析，（政客们）慷慨大度的最新例子是共和党的减税法案。它预计将给美国增加1兆美元或更多的债务。
 
But even before that, Goldwein points to the 2015 extension of many tax cuts and the 2014 delays in Medicare reimbursement cuts.
"Every time you feed your addiction, you grow your addiction," says Goldwein.
There doesn't seem to be any appetite for budgetary restraint in Washington, but the market may force Congress' hand.

但即使在那之前，马克•高德温还指出了2015年很多税减政策的延期，以及2014年医疗报销减免政策的延期。
“你每次都满足你的瘾，那么你的瘾就会越来越大”马克•高德温说道。
华盛顿似乎没有任何限制预算的意思，但市场可能会迫使美国国会停手。