美国外交关系协会：2016全球经济前景 [美国媒体]

Prospects for the Global Economy in 2016

2016全球经济前景

Authors: Kenneth S. Rogoff, Senior Fellow for Economics Barry J. Eichengreen, George & Helen PardeeProfessor of Economics & Political Science, University of California,Berkeley    Varun Sivaram, Douglas DillonFellow   James Pethokoukis  Robert Kahn, Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellowfor International Economics      
Interviewer(s): James McBride, Online Writer/Editor, Economics
December 28, 2015.

作者：KennethS. Rogoff, 经济学高级研究员Barry J. Eichengreen, 加州大学伯克利分校经济和政治系，George & HelenPardee讲座教授VarunSivaram,道格拉斯龙迪研究员JamesPethokoukis      Robert Kahn, Steven A.Tananbaum国际关系高级研究员
记者：JamesMcBride,经济学事实编辑、作家。
2015.12.28

The world will face economic challenges on multiple fronts in2016. As the U.S. Federal Reserve begins its monetary tightening, Europe isstruggling to manage migrant and debt crises, China's financial stability is indoubt, and emerging economies are increasingly fragile.

在2016年，世界经济将面临多方面的挑战：美联储开始货币紧缩，欧洲努力管理移民和债务危机，新兴经济体日益脆弱；只有中国金融稳定。

The global economy "could be doing much worse," writesCFR Senior Fellow and Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff. Low oilprices and weak currencies are keeping the European and Japanese economiesafloat, but Rogoff warns of "a slowing Chinese economy, collapsingcommodity prices, and the beginning of the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-hikingcycle."

哈佛经济学家、美国外交关系协会高级研究员Kenneth Rogoff表示，全球经济明年可能更惨。低油价和疲软的货币让欧洲和日本的经济保持平稳，但中国经济增长放缓，商品价格奔溃，而且美联储加息周期已经开始。

Emerging economies like Brazil,South Africa, Thailand, and Turkey,rather than China,will be the real sources of concern in 2016, argues U.C. Berkeley's Barry Eichengreen. Withtheir high levels of short-term debt, these countries are vulnerable tocurrency crisis, "potentially leading to economic collapse."

伯克利分校的Barry Eichengreen认为2016年应该更关注那些除中国外的新兴经济体，比如巴西、南非、泰国和土耳其，因为他们都有很高额度的端起债务，这些债务很可能会导致其经济奔溃。


 
希腊总理2016年面临很大挑战。

For CFR's Varun Sivaram, newinvestments announced at the Parisclimate talks are reason for optimism in the energy sector. In particular, the$20 billion earmarked for clean energy research and development "couldmake it more likely for breakthrough technologies to emerge."

美国外交关系协会的Varun Sivaram则表示乐观，因为巴黎气候会谈决定对能源领域进行投资，特别是对于情节能源的200亿美元投资会促进新技术的研发。

In the United  States, meanwhile, steady GDP and job growthhas been constrained by weak productivity gains, writes American EnterpriseInstitute's James Pethokoukis. Withoutincreased productivity delivering higher living standards, the United Statescould face decades of "unhealthy economic populism."

美国企业研究所的James Pethokoukis指出，美国的经济和就业增长依旧疲软，如果没有工业增长提供更高的生活水平，美国可能面临持续数十年的“病态经济民粹主义”。

Europe continues to facethe risk of debt crises, writes CFR's Robert Kahn, but themost dangerous economic risk for the continent in 2016 is "a growingpopulist challenge from both the Left and Right," which could createeconomic policy uncertainty and constrain policymakers.

美国外交关系协会的Robert Kahn认为2016年欧债危机将会持续，但是更大的威胁来自于欧洲左翼和右翼的民粹主义，他们会使决策者束手束脚，进而导致经济政策的不确定性。

以下是KennethS. Rogoff, 经济学高级研究员的文章。

The best thing that can be said about the global economy as 2016begins is that it could be doing much worse.

目前关于2016最好的消息就是，我们已经知道明年的经济会变得更糟。（这也算好消息）

In Europe, Greece'sSyriza government—closely adhering to theadvice of left-leaning U.S.economists—has flirted with pushing the Greek economy off a cliff. Thecountry's membership in the eurozone survived, however, even if the Greekgovernment needlessly squandered both precious time and tens of billions ofdollars.

在欧洲，希腊左翼联盟政府——坚持听从美国左翼经济学家的建议——已经接近把希腊经济推入悬崖。但是这个欧元去国家会继续存活下去，尽管它已经不必要的浪费很多时间和数十亿美金。

Europe, like Japan, is also facing profound existential problemsaround aging populations, difficulty in absorbing refugees andimmigrants, and slow productivity growth due to lackof structural reform. As 2016 dawns, low oil prices and weak currencies arecontinuing to keep both economies on positive—though not exactlyvigorous—growth trajectories.

欧洲，也包括日本，面临着严重地人口老龄化，吸收难民和移民的困难，以及由于缺乏结构性改革而导致的生产力增长缓慢。2016年初，低油价和疲软的货币依然会让两国经济保持发展——虽然看起来没什么活力。

Meanwhile, the Chinese government suffered a major dent in itscredibility by badly mishandling a collapsing stock market bubble, raisingquestions about how well it will be able to manage the ongoing shift in itseconomy to slower, but more sustainable, growth. Although the government hasmanaged to alleviate any immediate sense of crisis, the challenges in 2016remain formidable.

同时，由于股市泡沫奔溃，中国政府的公信力受到打击，人们将会质疑他能否应对经济放缓，使其可持续发展。尽管政府已经设法缓解了危机，但2016年的挑战依然艰巨。

Between a slowing Chinese economy, collapsing commodity prices,and the beginning of the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle, manyemerging market economies have become quite fragile, notably Russia and Brazil.Twenty years ago, with inflexible exchange rates and massive foreign currencydebt, the kind of duress these countries are experiencing now would haveinevitably led to financial crisis. Now, with flexible exchange rates and mostgovernment debt denominated in local currency, their economies are more robust:they are suffering deep recessions, yes, but not yet the start of "lostdecades." However, with Brazil’smultibillion dollar corruption scandal deepening by the day and plummeting oilprices undermining Russia’sfiscal sustainability, 2016 will further test these economies.

中国经济放缓，商品价格奔溃，美联储加息，许多新兴经济体已经相当脆弱，特别是俄罗斯和巴西。20年前，僵化的汇率政策和大量的外债，导致他们不可避免的先入了金融危机。现在，汇率变的灵活，大多数政府债务也以本币计价，他们的经济也变得更加强大，但是，依然无可避免的先入经济衰退，这很肯能是一个“失去的十年”的开始。巴西陷入数十亿美元的腐败丑闻，不断暴跌的油价破坏了俄罗斯经济的可持续性，2016年这些经济体将会被进一步考验。

Can the U.S.economy continue to recover even if growth elsewhere is tepid? For now, itseems that advanced economies will continue to heal from the financial crisis,albeit still suffering from hangovers due to high debt levels andpost-crisis trauma, especially in Europe.Still, 2016 promises to be anything but a quiet year.

美国经济会继续增长吗？即使是温和恢复？现在看来，发达经济体将继续冲金融危机中恢复，但创伤依旧未愈合，尤其是欧洲。2016将是不平静的一年。

Barry J. Eichengreen, 加州大学伯克利分校经济和政治系，George & HelenPardee讲座教授
It will be another rough year for emerging markets in2016. But unlike 2015, when investors were fixated on instability in Chinese markets and the bungled duation of therenminbi, in 2016 they will realize that the situation in China is under control and the realproblems are elsewhere.

对新兴经济体来说，2016将是艰难的一年。但不同于2015，投资者只关注与中国市场的不稳定和人民币的拙劣贬值，2016年，他们会意识到这些情况都在中国的掌控之中，真正的问题在别的地方。

Financialcrises erupt when a country has two problems at once: financial weakness andpolitical weakness. Chinahas financial weaknesses, to be sure, in the balance sheets of state-ownedenterprises, regional government debt, and the shadow banking system. But thereis little reason to question the government's capacity to intervene ifsomething goes seriously wrong, particularly given the country's nearly $3.5 trillionin foreign exchange reserves. These can be used to support the exchange rate ifthe renminbi shows undue weakness. In an extreme situation, the authorities canresort to direct controls on financial transactions, and they have noreluctance to use them.

当金融危机爆发时，一个国家将会面临两个问题：财政弱点和政治弱点。中国有经济上的弱点，在中国的资产负债表中，有国企、地方政府和影子银行。但是，如果出现什么大差错，很少有人会质疑中国政府干预问题的能力，特别是该国有近3万5000亿美元的外汇储备。如果人民币表现出不舒服，这些外汇可以用来支持汇率。即使在更极端的情况下，当局可以直接控制金融交易，而且他们乐于使用。

Thesituation is different in other emerging markets like Brazil, South Africa,Thailand, and Turkey.Like China,these countries are financially vulnerable. Their corporations are saddled withlarge amounts of short-term, dollar-denominated debt which becomes increasinglydifficult to service as the dollar strengthens, as it is again likely to do in2016. In turn, worries about corporate defaults—which damage fiscal accountseither directly by prompting bailouts or indirectly by depressing taxrevenues—can cause investors to flee. Since these countries lack the ability toimpose controls on financial transactions, the result could be a currencycollapse, potentially leading to economic collapse.

巴西、南非、泰国和土耳其等新兴市场的情况不同。和中国一样，这些国家的经济都很脆弱。他们的公司都背负这大量的短期债务，随着美元的走强，这些美元计价的债务对其更加不利，2016年这种不利将会持续增加。反过来，由于企业违约，会直接导致政府财政救助，间接导致税收减少，从而造成资本逃离，因此，其结果可能导致货币奔溃，更可能导致经济奔溃。

To avoidthat outcome, a strong government could cut public spending to restoreconfidence and allow the central bank to raise interest rates in order toattract capital back to the economy. In Brazil, however, President DilmaRousseff’s government has so far failed to push through the necessary, butpainful, fiscal measures. The central bank has hesitated to raise its maininterest rate, the Selic, for fear it would erode public support for theadministration. Instead, it has relied on unsustainable intervention in theforeign exchange market.

为了避免这种结果，一个强大的政府可以削减公共支出，已恢复信心，并允许中央银行提高利率，吸引资金回笼。但是在巴西，罗塞夫政府迄今未能推动必要但是痛苦的财政措施，央行也不愿提高其Selic（最近十年基本利率）的利率，因为他们担心这些动作会削弱民众对政府的支持。所以，他们只能依赖于国际市场上不可控预测的变化。

Everyunhappy emerging market is unhappy in its own way. In Turkey, the problem is largely geopoliticaluncertainty centered on the conflict in Syria. In Thailand it isurban-rural divisions, the uncertain health of the king, and an even moreuncertain succession. In South  Africa it is weak commodity prices and laborunrest. But what they all have in common is uncertainty about the capacity ofgovernments to respond.

每一个不开心新兴市场都有其不开心的理由，在土耳其，这个问题主要是地缘政治上的不确定性，主要集中在叙利亚冲突上。在泰国，问题则是城乡差距，国王的健康以及其继承人的不确定性。在南非，则是商品价格疲软和老公骚乱。但是，他们共同的不确定性是政府的反应能力。

Economists,it is famously said, have predicted eleven out of the last seven crises. No onecan predict with any confidence when the next one will happen. But it is easierto predict where.

有一个着名的说法，即使经济学家可以从过去的7次危机中预测出11次危机，他还是不能预测下一次危机会在什么时候发生。但是预测危机发生在哪里相对来说更容易。

Varun Sivaram, Douglas Dillon Fellow

Varun Sivaram,道格拉斯龙迪研究员

In 2015, representatives from 195 countries succeeded inadopting the "Paris Agreement," which sets up a framework forinternational cooperation on climate change. For all the fanfare, however,actual commitments are relatively modest. In essence, countries pledged toperiodically update plans to curb the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions thatcontribute to climate change. This is a major shift away from the previousapproach, aimed at allocating top-down, legally binding emissions targets onlyto developed countries.

在2015年，来自195个国家的代表成功的批准了“巴黎协议”，此协议旨在建立一个气候变化的国际合作框架。尽管叫好声不好，但实际承诺相对温和。各国承诺定期更新计划，以遏制温室气体排放量，改善气候变化。这是一个不同于以往的重大转变，旨在为发达国家自上而下地建立一个具有法律效力的排放指标。

Unfortunately, the voluntary pledges made in 2015 arealmost certainly insufficient to limit climate change to acceptable temperaturethresholds. The hope is that by requiring countries to update their actionplans every five years—the first update is due in 2020—countries will ratchetup their ambitions. As CFR's Michael Levi contends, whether this strategy can work "only timewill tell."

不幸的是，在2015年所作出的自愿承诺几乎肯定不足以限制气候变化到可接受的温度阈值。但是值得期望的是5年一次的计划更新，届时所有国家将会提高标准。下一次计划更下是在2020年。美国外交协会的Michael Levi说，只有时间才能告诉我们协议到底有没有用。

All ofthis means that international climate negotiations will continue in 2016. InNovember, diplomats will descend on Moroccoto fill in the details of the broad brushstrokes agreed to in Paris, including requirements fortransparency, consistency, and verification of national emission reductionefforts.

2016年，国际气候谈判将会继续。11月份，代表们将会汇聚到摩洛哥就巴黎协议的一些细节进行磋商，包括对透明度的要求，连贯性，和对各国减排努力的验收。

New clean energy technologies could make it easier forcountries to submit increasingly ambitious climate plans. In particular, twoannouncements made on the sidelines of the Paris summit could boost innovation. First,Bill Gates and twenty-seven other billionaire investors pledged to support basic research anddevelopment (R&D) in clean energy. In addition, twenty countries, includingthe United States, China, and India, pledged to double public funding for R&Dto a collective $20 billion by 2020. By the end of 2016, substantial investmentflows to support R&D could make it more likely for breakthroughtechnologies to emerge.

新的清洁能源技术让各国更容易的提交雄心勃勃的气候计划，特别是巴黎峰会上宣布的两项公告更能促进创新。首先，比尔盖茨和其他27位亿万富翁承诺为清洁能源的基础研究和发展提供支持。此外，包括中美印在内的二十多个国家承诺，将会在2020年投入双倍的资金，届时将达到200亿美元。

Renewableenergy companies suffered in 2015, with stock prices plunging. But thesector—based on fairly mature technologies for wind turbines and solarpanels—is set to grow rapidly in 2016. Chinaand India have set impressivetargets for deploying renewable energy, and the United States recently extendedgenerous tax credits that will support several years of booming renewableenergy growth. If this helps these companies recover in 2016, it will be anencouraging sign that the industry is moving in the right direction tochallenge the fossil-fuel industry.

可再生能源公司经历了2005年的股价暴跌。但是由于风力涡轮机和太阳能电池板技术的成熟，两项能源将会在2016年迅速增长。中国和印度已经制定了令人映像深刻的可再生能源目标，美国最近慷慨的扩大了税收抵免，这将会促进可再生能源的蓬勃发展。如果这些措施能够帮助新能源公司在2016年复苏，则表明该行业在向着挑战化石能源的正确方向前进。

James Pethokoukis
If itwere possible to peer into the near future and glimpse just one statistic aboutthe U.S.economy in 2016, which would be the most telling? GDP growth? The unemploymentrate? The Dow Jones Industrial Average?

如果在不久的将来对2016年的美国经济做一个统计数字， 哪个数据最具说服力？国内生产总值，失业率还是琼斯工业平均指数？

In fact,the most important indicator of the United States’s long-term economicprospects—that is, productivity—remains persistently weak. Over the past fiveyears, productivity growth has averaged just 0.6 percent, in contrast with thepostwar average of 2.2 percent. What's more, the consensus forecast suggestsmore of the same in the coming twelve months.

事实上，美国长期经济前景最重要的指标——生产力——依然持续低迷。在过去5年里，生产力的增长仅为0.6%，低于战后平均水准2.2%。而且，在未来的12月内，预测生产力的增长将保持不变，这是所有人的共识。

Despite steady GDP and job growth, a permanentlysluggish "new normal" for productivity would be alarming, especiallygiven the demographic challenges an aging society alreadyposes for growth. It would mean living standards improving so slowly that mostAmericans would feel they were no better off than their parents. A few years ofanemic growth has already given rise to an unhealthy economic populism in theAmerican electorate. Imagine how corrosive a few decades of stagnation might be.

尽管国内生产总值和就业率稳定增长，但是一个长期低迷的生产力“新常态”让人担忧，特别是人口的老龄化对增长的需求更甚。这将意味着人们的生活水平只会缓慢提高，大多数美国人会觉得他们生活的不如父母所处的时代。几年的缓慢增长已经引起了美国选民的一种不健康的经济民粹主义。而持续几十年的停滞将更不可想象。

Yet perhaps the productivity picture really isn’t sobleak. It’s hard to reconcile gloomy official numbers with the age of"unicorns"—those dynamic technology companies worth over $1billion—and the amazing burst of innovation happening right now in places likeSilicon Valley and New York.

然而，也许生产力没我所说的那么凄凉。与灰暗的官方数字不同，一些新兴的科技公司创造数以十亿计的财富，创新在纽约和硅谷等地有着惊人的爆发。

Explainingthis apparent "productivity paradox" leads in several directions.Maybe those innovations really don’t amount to much. After all, what’s adigital app compared with the invention of the combustion engine? Orperhaps what’s happening is that we’re really bad at measuring the effects oftechnological progress, especially in the digital economy.

如何解释这一“生产力悖论”？也许这些创新真的无足轻重，毕竟，与内燃机的发明相比，数字应用能算什么？也许，即使衡量了技术进步——特别是数字经济——我们依然很差。

Anotherpossibility is simply that it takes a maddeningly long time for innovation toboost productivity. For instance, it took years for factory owners to figureout how to efficiently employ electric motors. Recent advancements in areaslike artificial intelligence, big data, Bitcoin, drones, the sharing economy,and the "internet of things" may yet be broadly transformative, evenif their effects on broader productivity isn't immediately apparent.

或许还有另一种可能性，那就是需要更多时间的创新积累才能提高生产力。例如，工厂主们花了几年的时间才想出如何有效地使用电动马达。在人工智能、大数据、比特币、无人机、共享经济和“物联网”等领域的最新进展尚未引起变革，所以他们对生产力的影响也不明显。

Today, wecan instantly access all of humanity’s collective intelligence with a smalldevice pulled from our pockets. It certainly seems like this should end upmaking society more productive. It would just be reassuring if the numbersconfirmed that intuition. Hopefully in 2016, they will.

今天，我们随时可以从口袋拿出手机访问所有人类的集体智慧，这似乎使我们的社会变的更有生产力。如果有些数字能够证实以上想法不是错觉，那真是令人开心。希望，在2016.

Robert Kahn, Steven A. Tananbaum国际关系高级研究员

Thecoming year could be an interesting one for Europe. Backedby lower oil prices, a weaker euro, and European Central Bank (ECB)quantitative easing (QE), eurozone growth is expected to reach 1.5 percent withinflation of around 1 percent in 2016. But many of the fundamental structuralchallenges that are holding back Europe’s recovery—an incomplete monetaryunion, excess debt overhangs and incomplete capital markets, and structuralimpediments to full employment and growth—continue to be headwinds.

未来一年对欧洲来说值得关注的一年。由于低油价、弱势欧元和欧洲量化宽松政策的影响，欧元区2016年的经济增长预计将达到1.5%，通胀率为1%。但是许多结构性矛盾会阻碍欧洲经济的复苏——不完整的货币联盟、超量债务、未统合完整的资本市场、充分就业和增长的结构阻碍。

Weakgrowth in emerging markets, historically an important market for Europe’s exports, presents a further risk. The ECB hasdone most of the heavy lifting in support of recovery so far, but QE hasdiminishing returns, and governments will need to do more to support growth inthe event of a shock.

对欧洲来说，新兴市场是其传统的重要市场，却表现疲软，这导致进一步的风险。欧洲央行迄今为止做了大量的举措，但是量化宽松整政策已经逐渐减少，欧洲各国将会受到不同程度的冲击。

Againstthis backdrop, the most dangerous economic risk for Europein 2016 comes from a growing populist challenge from both the Left and theRight. These forces are likely to create uncertainty about economic policy andconstrain policymakers' options. In the past months, elections in France, Portugal,and Spain have revealedpopular support for anti-austerity policies and skepticism of greaterintegration with Europe. Meanwhile, Europeangovernments have in many cases responded by signaling a willingness to letfiscal targets slip, which will support demand—but raises the risk that debtcrises could return to the periphery of Europe.

在此背景下，2016年欧洲最主要的经济风险来自不断增长的左右翼民粹主义。他们会使决策者束手束脚，进而导致政策的不确定性。近几个月来，法国、葡萄牙和西班牙的选举都表明了民众对反紧缩的支持以及欧洲一体化的怀疑。与此同时，欧洲许多政府多次暗示乐意实施财政松绑，当然这会提升市场需求，但也伴随着债务风险。

Greece willagain be in the news in 2016, as the government faces growing politicalopposition to pension, tax, and other structural measures it has committed toundertake as a condition for further financing. The timing of promised debtrelief from its European partners remains uncertain, and in any case areduction of future debt service (after 2021) is not going to provide ameaningful spur to growth in the near term. All this suggests a"Grexit" from the eurozone could again be a market-driving issue.

希腊在2016将会再次占据头条。政府为了进一步骗钱，采取地关于退休金、税收和其他措施将会遭受强烈的反对。欧洲伙伴还没有对其债务减免做出承诺，而且也未准备任何措施来减少未来债务和刺激短期经济。这一切都表明希腊退出欧元区再次成为一个市场驱动的问题。

Outsideof the eurozone, a UK voteon "Brexit," now expected in 2016, poses fundamental questions aboutthe future of Europe. Regardless of theoutcome, the run-up to any referendum is likely to weigh on investment andmarket sentiment.

在欧元区之外，2016年英国将会投票退出欧盟对欧洲来说也是个大问题。不管结果如何，任何公民投票在准备阶段就可能会影响到投资和市场的信心。

IfEuropean and global markets remain calm, Europewill continue its recovery. But any of a number of shocks, whether a hardlanding in China, debt problems in Europe, or disruptions elsewhere, willcreate substantial pressure on policymakers at a time when the constraints ontheir ability to act are intense.

如果欧洲和全球市场没什么大的事故，欧洲经济将会稳定复苏。但是，无论是中国的硬着陆，欧洲的债务问题，或者其他地方有什么变故，都会给政策制定者造成巨大的压力，尤其是一些国内不理智的声音限制他们的能力.