如果低端制造业继续离开中国，而发达国家又能在高端制造业上打败“中国制造2025”的话，那中国经济的结局是什么？ [美国媒体]

If manufacturing keeps leaving China on the low-end and developed countries are successful in thwarting "Made in China 2025" on the high-end, then what's the end game for China's economy?

如果低端制造业继续离开中国，而发达国家又能在高端制造业上打败“中国制造2025”的话，那中国经济的结局是什么？




Timothy Tan, Macro-credit Strategist (2000-present)
Answered Wed
The Anonymous person asking this leading question obviously have no idea how manufacturing works, or how development works.
Manufacturing will never leave China. Why? Simple. China is the BIGGEST market in the world. If low end manufacturing moves out because of cost, you can be certain it is the Chinese that are outsourcing it. As for high-end development, what makes this person think the developed nation can thwart China’s development? China now spending more on R&D than German and Japan. 
China leads in a number of tech and medical innovations, while building its microchip manufacturing with pace. Thwart “Made in China 2025”? Western companies going to China to set up shop.
In fact, in manufacturing of capital goods, China is already competing (successfully) with the major producers of the world.
Remember this: the biggest market of the world determine the terms. US was the biggest market post WW2. China has already taken over pole position now.
So manufacturing will NOT leave China. “Made in China 2025” will be achieved, no matter what the West does.

问这个问题的人显然是不知道制造业是怎么运作的，也不知道开发是怎么运作的。
制造业永远都不会离开中国，因为中国是世界上最大的市场。如果低端制造业因为成本而离开中国，那么肯定是中国人自己将其外包出去。就高端制造业而言，你凭什么认为发达国家能挫败中国发展？中国现在在研发上的投入比日德加起来还多。中国在一系列的科技和医疗创新上保持领先，并且在建设自己的微芯片产业。挫败“中国制造2025”？西方企业都跑到中国去建厂了。实际上，在资本货物的制造上，中国已经成功的和世界主要厂家竞争了。
记住：谁的市场最大，谁就定规矩。二战后美国是最大市场。而现在中国处于有利地位。
所以制造业不会离开中国。“中国制造2025”会实现的，不论西方怎么做。

Li-Ping Yuan, works at Computer Applications
Answered 5h ago
Don’t worry. Market economy will balance itself.
Manufacturing has partially (even mostly) left US, Japan, Western Europe due to high wages. But their economy didn’t collapse, just slow down.
Other newly developed countries, such as Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore, used to rely on “low-end” manufacturing. But such “low-end” manufacturing has all left and their economy are still healthy but slowed down a bit. They may not have developed the most advanced technologies (such as building machines for chip manufacturing), but they do very well in certain sectors (such as chip manufacturing)….. and integrated into the world economy.
I expect China will do the same as these newly developed countries but in a much larger scale. It will have greater and longer impact to the world economy and eventually, very well integrated into the world economy as a major component.
A few things are unique to China are:
Low end manufacturing may partially move out of the country but partially move from coastal provinces to inland provinces. So, some low end manufacture will stay.
High end manufacture in various areas will be developed with the push/support from government. I believe some will succeed as world leaders (e.g. Chinese medicine and related bio-technologies) and some will fail due to too much competition.
Due to the advances of transportation and communication, the world is getting flatter The World Is Flat - Wikipedia. In the future, the most important difference is not between countries, but between rich and poor.
不用担心，市场经济会平衡自身的。由于高工资，制造业部分（甚至大部分）离开了美国，日本，西欧。但是这些国家的经济并没有崩溃，只不过放缓了。其他新的发达国家如韩国，台湾，香港和新加坡，过去也依赖低端制造业。但是这些低端制造业也都完全离开了，但是他们的经济照样很健康，只不过放缓了。他们或许没有发展出最先进的科技（比如建造出了用于生产芯片的机器），但是他们在某些领域做得很好（比如芯片制造），并融入了全球经济。
我认为中国会和这些新兴发达国家一样，但是却是更大的规模。中国会对世界经济产生更大更长远的影响，最终作为重要的组成部分整合进全球经济。中国独有的一些特征：
低端制造业或许会部分的离开中国，但是也会部分的从沿海地区向内陆地区转移。所以低端制造业还是会留在中国。在政府的支持和推动下，不同领域的高端制造业将获得发展。我相信某些会成功从而成为世界领袖（比如中医以及相关的生物科技），而某些会因为竞争激烈而失败。由于交通和通信的进步，世界变得更平了。未来，最重要的区别不是国家之间的区别，而是穷人与富人之间的区别。

Joseph Wang, ex-VP, Big investment bank - Hong Kong
Answered 18h ago
Ever visit Detroit or Cleveland?
What the Chinese government is doing with “Made in China 2025” is what they  US government *should* have done with “Made in America 1985.” As the low  end industries leave China, then you need to push companies to move into  higher technology. The lesson that China has is that this sort of thing  simply will not happen if you leave everything to the market, so you need  massive government efforts to make sure that the industries that leave China  are replaced with higher technology ones.
去过底特律或者克利夫兰吗？中国政府正在对“中国制造2025”做的事情正是美国政府本应该对“美国制造1985”做的事情。随着低端产业离开中国，你必须推动企业走向更高的技术。中国吸取的教训是如果一切都由市场决定，那么这是不可能实现的，政府必须下大功夫确保离开中国的产业被更加高技术的产业所替代。

Doug Hensley, works at Texas A&M University
Answered Wed
The future of manufacturing is that there will be ever fewer jobs to be had  in the sector, as automation continues to penetrate the sector. Manufacturing  output in the US is rising even as the number of jobs dwindles. The same is  bound to happen in China.

未来的制造业就业机会将变得更少，因为自动化生产越来越普遍。虽然美国的就业数量下降了，但是美国的制造业产出依然在上升。所以中国也同样会如此。