英媒：1983年苏联人如何确信北约例行演习实际是迫在眉睫的进攻

War game that almost sparked Armageddon: Deep in a Nato bunker, Western forces rehearsed their nuclear response to a Soviet invasion. But the panicking Russians thought it was the real thing

The Salisbury chemical attack and the Syrian air strikes have left East-West relations in the worst state for several decades. In a riveting new book, historian TAYLOR DOWNING recounts earlier moments when the world skidded towards disaster. Today — in the final part of his series — he shows how, in 1983, the Soviets became convinced that a routine Nato exercise was an imminent attack.

索尔兹伯里的化学攻击和叙利亚的空袭已经使东西方关系跌至几十年来的冰点。在一本引人入胜的新书中，历史学家泰勒·唐宁讲述了世界滑向灾难的早期历史时刻。今天—在该系列的最后一部分—他展示了1983年苏联人如何确信北约的例行演习实际就是一场迫在眉睫的进攻。

At the peak of the heightened tension between the Soviet Union and the West, in November 1983 Nato — the West’s military alliance — began an elaborate war game it codenamed Able Archer. It was an annual communications exercise to practise command-and-control procedures that would be used in the event of war with the Soviet-dominated Warsaw Pact nations.

1983年11月，在苏联与西方之间紧张关系达到顶峰的时候，北约—西方的军事同盟—开始了一场代号为“优秀射手”的精心策划的战争游戏。这是一年一度的演习，磨炼指挥控制流程，以便将来用于与苏联主导的华沙条约国家的战争。

It did not require simulated fighting or even the deployment of tanks or armoured vehicles to their battle stations. It was a rehearsal of how decisions would be made and commands issued in the event of a fast-moving war.

演习不需要模拟战斗，甚至不需要将坦克或装甲车部署到战斗岗位。这是一场如何在局势迅速发展的战争中作决定、发指令的演练。

Able Archer was played out deep inside a bunker known as the ‘nuclear vault’ near the Belgian city of Mons, south-west of Brussels. There, war gamers invented a lively but credible scenario in which the Soviets invade Finland and Norway, and pour tanks into West Germany which rapidly overpower Nato forces.

“优秀射手”在比利时布鲁塞尔西南部小城蒙斯附近一个名为“核库”的地堡深处结束了。在那里，战争游戏玩家们虚构了生动而可信的场景，苏联入侵芬兰和挪威，坦克涌入西德，迅速地控制了北约部队。

As usual with such exercises, all this was routinely monitored by eavesdropping Soviet intelligence. Except that this time, what they heard and how they interpreted it sparked such alarm in Moscow that they nearly engulfed the world in a nuclear Armageddon.

像以往的演习一样，他们通过监听苏联的情报来监控。但这一次情况有所不同，他们听到的内容以及他们的解读使他们对莫斯科恐慌起来，他们差点把世界卷入了一场核战的世界末日。

The Soviet commanders knew they had their own contingency plans to attack the West under the cover of a similar military exercise. They now suspected the West was doing the same.

苏联指挥官很清楚，他们已制定了应急计划，在军事演习的掩护下袭击西方国家。他们现在怀疑西方也在做同样的事情。

The Nato players running the war game decided they were losing the conventional war and must escalate the conflict. They went to the extreme military alert status known as DefCon1 — the use of nuclear weapons.

北约成员国认为，他们在常规战争中正走向失败，必须使冲突升级。他们进入了被称为核战危机1的极端军事戒备状态——使用核武器。

Initially, just a few tactical nuclear missiles were ‘fired’ at Soviet tank regiments. But when this failed to stop the ‘onslaught’ and the Warsaw Pact responded by wiping out Nato command bases, the war gamers requested from their political masters authorisation for a massive nuclear strike against the Soviet Union.

最初，他们只向苏联坦克兵团“发射”了几枚战术核导弹。但是，当他们发现这未能阻止“猛攻”，而华沙公约组织摧毁了北约的指挥基地作为回应，政治大师授权战争玩家对苏联进行大规模的核武打击。

In America, President Ronald Reagan denounced the Soviet Union as ‘the evil empire’, while on Russian TV the U.S. was portrayed as a warmonger bent on world domination and Reagan was regularly described as a ‘reckless criminal’ and even compared to Hitler.

美国的罗纳德·里根总统谴责苏联是“邪恶帝国”，而在俄罗斯电视将美国描绘成企图统治世界的好战分子，将里根形容为“鲁莽的罪犯”，甚至将他与希特勒相提并论。

A leading Politburo member told his fellow countrymen: ‘Comrades, the international situation is white hot.’ Air raid drills were held in factories. Thousands of Soviet missile sites were routinely on alert, ready to launch a retaliatory nuclear strike against Washington DC and other major U.S. cities at any sign that the West was about to make a pre-emptive first strike.

一位政治局常委告诉他的同胞：“同志们，国际形势已经白热化了。”工厂举行空袭演习。成千上万的苏联导弹基地处于戒备状态，准备对华盛顿和美国其他主要城市发动报复性的核打击，因为种种迹象表明，西方随时将先发制人。

Fearing that if they waited any longer it would be too late to respond, they put the entire Soviet nuclear arsenal with its 11,000 warheads — each of which had the destructive capacity of roughly 40 Hiroshima bombs — onto the maximum state of combat alert.

他们担心，如果他们再等下去将来不及做反应，他们把整个苏联核武库的11000枚核弹头(每枚都有大约40颗广岛原子弹的破坏力)都升至最高战斗警报状态。

In the U.S., only the President can authorise the use of nuclear weapons. A top military aide who has gone through the most rigorous security vetting is never more than a few steps from the President, carrying the ‘nuclear football’, a briefcase hand-cuffed to his arm that contains the codes for launching nuclear weapons.

在美国，只有总统才能授权使用核武器。一名高级军事助理通过了最严苛的安全审查，从总统手里接过“核足球”，一个铐在他手上的公文包，里面放着核武器的发射代码。

The situation — perhaps even the Cold War as a whole — had reached its most dangerous point. If the Soviets, straining at the leash that November day in 1983, had launched their nuclear weapons, Armageddon would have followed.

这种情况——甚至可能是整个冷战——已经达到了最危险的地步。如果苏联人在1983年11月的那一天拉紧绳索，发射了他们的核武器，世界末日就会接踵而至。

Tens of millions would have been killed directly by the impact of those missiles on Western Europe and the United States. In turn, the massive nuclear arsenal of the U.S. would have blasted the Soviet Union back into the Stone Age.

这些导弹对西欧和美国的影响将直接导致数千万人丧生。反过来，美国庞大的核武库也会把苏联炸回石器时代。

Hundreds of millions around the world would have died from nuclear radiation and countless millions more as a result of the starvation and chaos of the subsequent ‘nuclear winter’.

世界上数以亿计的人将死于核辐射，还有无数的人死于随后的“核冬天”的饥饿和混乱。

On the evening of November 9, everything came to a head. At Mons, Nato commanders gave the pretend order to launch 350 nuclear weapons. In a bedroom in the Kuntsevo Clinic, a military aide sat beside Andropov with the cheget, poised to send out the nuclear launch codes. Soviet intelligence agencies, the KGB and the GRU, were frantically trying to get more information. ‘Flash’ telegrams were sent out to agents around the world seeking confirmation that Nato was preparing a surprise nuclear attack.

11月9日的晚上是紧要关头。在蒙斯，北约指挥官们模拟发射350枚核武器。在昆次伏诊所的卧室中，一名军事副官坐在安德罗波夫旁边，随时准备发送核发射码。苏联情报机构，克格勃和格勒乌，都在疯狂地试图获取更多的信息。“闪光”电报被发送给潜伏在世界各地的特工，再三确认北约是否准备突然发动核攻击。

When Oleg Gordievsky, the deputy head of the KGB residency in London (and secretly working for the British) got the request, he was baffled. He could see that life was carrying on as normal and thought the panic absurd.

当克格勃驻伦敦的副主任奥列格•戈迪耶夫斯基收到请求时，他感到很困惑。在他看来，生活照旧，他认为恐慌是荒谬的。

All the senior members of the Politburo had vivid memories of World War II and the savage destruction conflict could bring. Unless they absolutely had to, they did not want to push the nuclear button and bring down on a new generation of their people an even worse catastrophe.

政治局的所有高级官员都对第二次世界大战和战争带来的废墟记忆犹新。除非绝对有必要，否则他们不愿按下核按钮，让新一代人民遭受更大的灾难。

Whatever it was, they sat out that night, trembling, looking up into the dark sky as though trying to spot incoming missiles.

不管是什么原因，那天晚上他们坐在室外，战战兢兢地望着漆黑的天空，试图寻找飞来的导弹。

But when no alarm was received of enemy launches, they refrained from launching their own nuclear weapons. As dawn came up on another day, probably the most dangerous moment of the Cold War passed. The world had survived.

但是，因为没有收到敌方的警报，他们也就没有发射自己的核武器。随着黎明的到来，这个可能是冷战最危机的时刻终于过去了。世界幸免于难。

Only later was it realised how risky it had all been. A subsequent top-secret U.S. report for the President concluded that Able Archer ‘may have inadvertently placed our relations with the Soviet Union on a hair trigger’.

直到后来，人们才意识到这一切是多么的危险。随后，一份递送给美国总统的绝密报告总结说，“优秀射手”可能无意中使我们与苏联的关系一触即发”。

Robert Gates, then deputy director of the CIA, put it more starkly and terrifyingly: ‘We may have been at the brink of nuclear war and not even known it.’

时任美国中央情报局副局长的罗伯特•盖茨用更直白、更吓人的话说：“我们当时可能已经处于核战争的边缘，却毫不知情。”

英国每日邮报读者的评论：

JRobson, Blandford Forum - Free UK, United Kingdom, 6 minutes ago

Ain't that the swamp that Trump crawled out of?

这难道不是特朗普好不容易爬出来的沼泽吗？

 

yarmot, Stotfold, United Kingdom, 23 minutes ago

One Russian soldier refused to launch nuclear weapon. I think there was a movie made out of this.

一个俄罗斯士兵拒绝发射核武器。我记得有一部电影这样演的。

 

Jonny hennell, Lincoln, United Kingdom, about an hour ago

Oh look, it's the Able Archer story AGAIN !! First learnt about this in a Chanel 4 documentary over 10 years ago, keep up D.M. !

哦，看，这又是“优秀射手”的故事!! 10多年前，我就第一次在第4频道的纪录片中看到过这个。每日邮报继续哦。

 

JRobson, Blandford Forum - Free UK, United Kingdom, 9 minutes ago

The propaganda machine has to keep churning it out to keep successive generations scared of Mutually Assured Destruction.

宣传机器必须不停地炒旧料，这样以后几代人都会害怕同归于尽。

 

Drago Montenegrin, Podgorica, Montenegro, about an hour ago

Panicking Soviets you mean? That's like saying English while talking about British. There were 100 million of non Russian people in the Soviet Union.

你意思是吓唬苏联?那就跟用英语说英国一样。在苏联有1亿非俄罗斯人。

 

Rarkar, Winchester, United Kingdom, about an hour ago

It was an operator who wanted to hold back to check before launching a nuclear strike against the US. He saved the world and was sacked.

是一个操作员，在对美国发动核打击之前想要再三确认一下。他拯救了世界。

 

Wojtek, Warsaw, 1 hour ago

Better tell more about 9th Nov 1979 when US almost provoked huge war in Europe. This pathetic story about Brzezinski's wife doesn't tell that there was Europe-wide alarm in US and probably British air and maybe landforces. Many (or almost all) US squadrons in Europe took off incl. many planes equipped with nuclear weapons like B-52 and F-111 from Mildenhall, central GB. It came like a thunder from blue sky, all bigger exercises had to be then announced to the second party to avoid war. But US "exercises" from Nov 9th weren't announced. Russian side also keeps silence about their aerial and land response that day. It could be the end of the world we know.

最好多介绍一下1979年11月9日美国差点在欧洲挑起大战的情况。这个关于辛斯基妻子的悲惨故事并没有披露，在美国和英国的空军，也许还有陆军中，全欧洲的警报一直响起。在欧洲，许多(或几乎所有)美国空军中队都起飞了。许多飞机都配备了B-52和F-111这样的核武器。它就像晴天中的响雷一般出现。但11月9日的美国“演习”并未公开。俄罗斯方面也对当天的空中和地面反应保持沉默。那天本来会是我们的世界末日。

 

patriothardcorps, Hard Corps HQ, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago

Whoa, hang on, there's a 24 megaton hydrogen bomb in a swamp in North Carolina?

哇哦，等会儿，北卡罗来纳洲的沼泽里有2400万吨级当量的氢弹？

 

dave, spain, Spain, 59 minutes ago

No not anymore. It exploded in 2002 but nobody noticed and in fact improved the area...

现在没了。2002年爆炸了，没人注意到，事实上，还改善了这个地方的发展。

 

T.S.P.B., Lancashire, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago

Here is the plan, are you listening, synchronise your watches: we'll have 5 war games running and a real war when we invade Russia, if we lose we'll say Russia panicked, OK! did you all get it?

我有个计划，你们在听吗？我们统一一下时间：当我们进攻俄罗斯时，我们有5场战争游戏和一场真正的战争，如果我们输了我们会说俄罗斯恐慌了，好吧!你们都明白了吗?

 

Bill Hanson, stoke, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago

not read it... but did it mention that only cool heads in the Russian government stopped them setting off a nuclear strike? bet it didn't!

还没看内容，是不是说俄罗斯政服有冷静的人物停止核战? 我猜它没说!

 

Kayzai, London, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago

Please stop mentioning the "Salibury attacks" until our government eventually comes up with a story that actually adds up.

在我们的政服最终给出完整故事钱，别再说索尔兹伯里袭击了

 

JRobson, Blandford Forum - Free UK, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago

As I read the title of the news story, a deep foreboding clawed at my mind. I tentatively read on, finding exactly what I instinctively knew I would. "In a riveting new book, ..."

我读新闻标题时，有一种预感在我的脑海中萦绕。我试探性地读下去，找到了我凭直觉知道的东西“在一本引人入胜的新书中……”

 

Jonnie, Seoul, South Korea, 1 hour ago

Only a matter of time before a miscommunication or cyber hack will vaporise the planet, and all for what ?

在沟通失误和网络黑客消灭这个星球前，只是时间问题罢了，这一切都是为了什么？

 

asher_in_israland, tel_aviv, Israel, 1 hour ago

remember the movies "wargames" and "Doctor Strangelove"??

我还记得《战争游戏》和《奇爱博士》这两部电影。

 

WhoGains, Bagshot, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago

Fake News. You can't trust the West.

假新闻。不能相信西方国家。

 

Ganacus, Plymouth, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago

Good job that Russian had a cool head other wise that would have been doomsday.

俄罗斯人冷静处理真是万幸，不然真的就是世界末日了。

 

Sandyhills, Sandy, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago

This is how the world will die, by a mistake playing war games

战争游戏的失误就是世界走向灭亡的通路。

 

antler, Truro, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago

more western war mongering to try to save the dying hegemony

西方战争引爆更多战争，试图挽回日渐式微的霸权。

 

Glensman, Portrush, United Kingdom, 1 hour ago

What is the arms industry worth to the western economies. You need wars to survive or you go out of business. I am only wondering. Do governments create wars.

对西方经济体来说，军火产业的意义何在？你们需要战争才能活下去吗？还是你们没生意做了？我只是好奇罢了。是政服发动的战争。