英国脱欧，2017年第一季度GDP增速下滑至0.3%，英国网友评论

Brexit latest: GDP growth slumps to 0.3% in first quarter of 2017

脱欧最新情报：在2017年第一季度中GDP增长下滑至0.3%

【日期】2017年4月28日

The UK's GDP growth unexpectedly fell to 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2017, confirming fears of a post-Brexit vote slowdown beginning to take effect.

英国在2017年第一季度的GDP增速意外下跌至0.3％，证实对英国脱欧公投会放缓经济的担忧正在逐步变成现实。

The Office for National Statistics reported in its preliminary estimate that growth more than halved from the 0.7 per cent expansion rate seen in the final quarter of 2016.
City of London economists had pencilled in a fall in the growth rate to between 0.4 per cent and 0.5 per cent.

在英国国家统计局公布出来的初步判断中，经济增速是2016年最后季度的0.7%的一半以上，而伦敦的经济学家们预期是在0.4%到5%之间。

Slowdown hits

经济增长乏力的打击

Growth in services, which accounts for around three-quarters of the economy, dropped to 0.3 per cent, a significant deceleration from the 0.8 per cent expansion in the previous three months.

服务业，在整个经济产出占重四分之三左右。 这个季度增速下跌至0.3%，相对过去三个月的0.8%显著放缓。

The ONS highlighted falls in the output of some large consumer-facing service sectors such as retail and accommodation.
There were also falls in renting and motor vehicle repair.

国家统计局特地指出，一些面向消费者的大型服务行业例如：例如零售和住宿，产出明显下滑。另外租赁和机动车维修服务行业下跌较厉害。

Manufacturing output, around 10 per cent of the economy. expanded by 0.5 per cent on the previous quarter, down from its 1.2 per cent surge in Q4 2016.

制造业，生产总值在整个经济占重十分之一左右，增速只有0.5%，从2016年的第四季度的1.2%增速暴跌下来。

Construction, around 6 per cent of total output, grew by 0.2 per cent, down from a previous 1 per cent expansion.

建筑业，生产总值在整个经济占重百分之六左右，增速只有0.2%，从前季度的1%增速跌了下来。

Factoring in estimated UK population growth of 0.2 per cent in the three months, the ONS said GDP per capita expanded by just 0.1 per cent.

由于在这三个月内人口增长了0.2%，统计局方表示人均GDP仅增长了0.1%。Per head growth almost wiped out 人均GDP几无增长

Analysts said that the services slowdown reflected the spike in inflation following the slump in the pound in the wake of last June's vote crimping people's disposable incomes.

数据分析家们表示，服务业的增长乏力反映了通货膨胀加剧和着去年6月公投后尾随的英镑暴跌，正在压缩着人们的可支配收入。

"This weakness is likely to be blamed on Brexit. That is probably fair, albeit in an indirect sense," said Alan Clarke, an economist at Scotiabank.

“这次经济增长疲软原因可能将归咎于脱欧，这比较合理，尽管只是从一种间接角度上看”丰业银行的经济学家Alan Clarke说。

The fears leading up to Brexit were that growth would stall due to a dive in confidence, hiring and investment. That hasn’t happened.

“对启动脱欧程序会导致就业，投资和信心受创，从而停止经济增长的这些担忧现象仍未发生。

What did happen is the pound dived, pushing inflation sharply higher and that is causing consumer spending and hence overall growth to slow."

真实发生的是英镑跳水推动通货膨胀尖锐化，导致了消费者支出减少和整体行业增长放缓。”

Most economists expect the slowdown to continue over the rest of the year.

大部分经济学家预期这种现象将持续到年底。

"This household squeeze is likely to be compounded by the effect of Brexit uncertainty, which may increasingly deter firms from hiring and investing. Whilst trade should perform better thanks to the weaker pound, we don’t expect this to be enough to prevent growth gradually slowing through this year," said James Smith of ING.

“家庭开支的压缩极可能会被脱欧的不确定影响综合，也许越来越多的公司停止雇佣和投资，同时，得益于英镑弱势贸易成果应该表现得良好些。我们不敢期望这足以阻止今年经济增长逐渐放缓”安银银行的James Smith说。

The GDP estimate from the ONS is just half of the 0.6 per cent expansion the Bank of England had expected at the time of its March rate-setting meeting, when one member, Kristin Forbes, voted for a rate rise and some others were reported to be on the verge of considering it if there were more "upside news" on the economy.

关于国家统计局公布的GDP增速只剩0.6%的一半，英国央行在几年三月的利率决策会议上早有预料。当时会议成员之一Kristin Forbes给涨息投了一票。

That would seem to suggest that a rate rise from the central bank is now less likely.

而其他人据说则倾向于期待经济上能有更多正面消息。这似乎表明了对央行升息的建议，现在并不可能实现。

Nevertheless, the pound strengthened in the wake of the figures climbing around 0.24 per cent to $1.2947.

不过英镑依旧强势，汇率上涨了0.24%达到了1.2947美元。

The ONS's first GDP estimate is based on around 44 per cent of the final survey data and will be revised in subsequent months as the remainder comes in.

国家统计局发布的GDP数据是根据最后一次调查数据的44%左右进行首次估算，将在随后的几个月补齐其他部分再进行修正。

英国独立报网友评论

（Kevinlondon：this is just a slight dip before we get that "shower of gold" Farage and Boris promised us :)

这只是下“黄金雨”前的一次小小下滑。Farage 和 Boris 已经向我们保证过了:)

译者注：Nigel Farage主持退欧投票成功后就辞职了，被批不负责任，后来再次复出，现独立党领袖。
Boris Johnson，前伦敦市长，现任外交大臣支持脱欧

Expat：Winter is not a good time for economy, every one knows. Oh yes, now that the art50 is triggered, we should expect growth in double figures for the next quarter. With less migrants as planned, no doubt NHS waiting time will be reduced too.

冬天本来就不是经济向好的好时机，大家都知道。现在脱欧的第50条款已经被触发。我们该期待下个季度能有两位数的增长。
按照计划将减少移民，毫无疑问免费医疗等待的时间也将缩短。

Blackkbeard's host：I detect a slight shift in the tone of comments from Brexiters.
There are still plenty of comments which blame everything and anything on the EU.
There are still plenty of the "we won, get over it" type of comments.
There are still very few comments that acknowledge the complexities of disentangling from the EU and the hurdles that will have to be negotiated.
There are still very few comments that actually address what a Brexit Britain might actually look like or what,to give but one example, what a post Brexit immigration policy might/should actually be.
But - and here is the shift - we no longer see any comments which have an optimistic vision of post Brexit Britain. No comments that set out how Britain might actually be better. Instead we have a rather depressing litany of comments from Brexiters trying to convince themselves that it won't get worse.

我留意到到一些脱欧派们留评语调的细微变化。
仍有大量的评论在指责欧盟的任何，一切事务。
仍有大量的评论属于“我们投票赢了，硬头皮上克服困难，其他别想了”这种类型。
仍只有极少评论承认跟欧盟松绑的复杂性和涉及即将进行的谈判面临的阻碍。
仍只有极少评论真正提及一个脱欧的英国将看起来像什么或会是怎样，举个栗子：退欧后移民政策也许或者应该怎么切确制定？
但-唯一改变的是-我们再也看不到关于退欧后的英国乐观愿景的任何评论。
没有任何评论涉及着英国该怎么做才能实际变得更好。
相反，我们看到来自于脱欧派们相当令人沮丧又冗长的祈祷正尝试自欺欺人：不会变糟的，不会变糟的，不会变糟的。。。

Sirgar：Of course nothing you have referred to there has any direct
connection with what the article is about, ie GDP, I think you'll find most of the posts have been answering that. I for one am still very optimistic and have no worries whatsoever. I remember reading one of these threads and a Remainiac was telling us when the ￡:$ was 1.1 that it would continue to drop to less than one for one, I see in the article it's now $1.2947, a long way from the predicted figure, but we're used to that, Remainiac's predictions to date have been woefully poor. Plus these figures don't really mean a lot, given that 56% of the date is not used."The ONS's first GDP estimate is based on around 44 per cent of the final survey data and will be revised in subsequent months as the remainder comes in."

Sirgar回复楼上：你说的跟这边文章没有任何直接关系，文中涉及的是GDP，你改发现大部分评论已经可以答复你的问题。我个人看来相当乐观，也没什么可忧虑的。我记得在看这类主题文章的时候一个留欧派者告说: 当英镑兑美金变成$1.1的时候，将会继续跌到低于1:1。然后我看到报道里英镑汇率现在恢复到$1.2947，离预计的数字还有很长一段距离，但我们已经习惯了，留欧派们的预言能力至今糟糕地让人有种淡淡地忧伤。另外增速0.3%这个数字并没有多大意义。文章说了说56%数据是无用的-“国家统计局发布的GDP数据是根据最后一次调查数据的44%左右进行首次估算，将在随后的几个月补齐其他部分再进行修正。”

Tofu63：I believe this to be exactly the same as the latest figures in France, no Brexit there. Every time things looked positive we leavers were shot down with 'We haven't left yet'. I don't know anyone who voted to leave who didn't understand that there would be a difficult and turbulent time. We just value some things more than money and in any case believe that we'd rather be free to make free trade agreements with the rest of the world rather than rely on Europe where the market is shrinking all the time. I hope I would never be ill mannered to anyone and I also hope that with time those people who voted to remain and are still not at peace with the UK's decision to leave will be able to tame their anger and disappointment. Wishing you peace.

Tofu63回复楼主：法国最新公布的GDP数字也是0.3%，那里可没有脱欧活动。每次我们脱欧派被攻击“还没正式脱离呢”时非常积极面对。我不知道是否每个投票脱欧的都知道将面临着困难与障碍。我们只是评估一些高于金钱的价值还有坚信与其留在正市场逐渐收缩的欧洲，我们宁愿拥有签订更多自由贸易协议的自由。希望我的行为举止不冒犯每个人，但我也希望这些投票留欧和仍然无法平静面对英国决策的人，能离开英国以平息他们的怒气和失望。祝您安宁。

Happy_LeaverHappy_LeaverHappy leaver：Well said Tofu. Nobody voted Leave in the belief it would boost the economy in the short term. On the contrary we expected a negative bump which to date hasn't happened. Leave voters placed a higher priority on sovereignty, democracy and identity/culture.

开心脱欧者回复楼上：Tofu63说得好，没人会因为认为脱欧短期内能促进经济而投票，相反我们所预计的负面波动目前还未发生。脱欧者们更重视主权，民主和身份/文化。

Blackkbeard's host：A reasonable reply. I may not yet be "at peace" with the decision but I accept that Britain is now leaving. My anger has given way to concern. My main concern is that I do not yet detect in any of the political parties any real appreciation of the difficulties that lie ahead nor, indeed, any planning to seize whatever opportunities may be out there. Neither do I feel optimistic that Britain can remain open and tolerant. I don't claim to speak for other remainers but in one sense I wish I could share you optimism - unfortunately I just can't see it ending well. Peace to you too
A reasonable reply. I may not yet be "at peace" with the decision but I accept that Britain is now leaving. My anger has given way to concern. My main concern is that I do not yet detect in any of the political parties any real appreciation of the difficulties that lie ahead nor, indeed, any planning to seize whatever opportunities may be out there. Neither do I feel optimistic that Britain can remain open and tolerant. I don't claim to speak for other remainers but in one sense I wish I could share you optimism - unfortunately I just can't see it ending well. Peace to you too.
A reasonable reply. I may not yet be "at peace" with the decision but I accept that Britain is now leaving. My anger has given way to concern. My main concern is that I do not yet detect in any of the political parties any real appreciation of the difficulties that lie ahead nor, indeed, any planning to seize whatever opportunities may be out there. Neither do I feel optimistic that Britain can remain open and tolerant. I don't claim to speak for other remainers but in one sense I wish I could share you optimism - unfortunately I just can't see it ending well. Peace to you too.A reasonable reply. I may not yet be "at peace" with the decision but I accept that Britain is now leaving. My anger has given way to concern. My main concern is that I do not yet detect in any of the political parties any real appreciation of the difficulties that lie ahead nor, indeed, any planning to seize whatever opportunities may be out there. Neither do I feel optimistic that Britain can remain open and tolerant. I don't claim to speak for other remainers but in one sense I wish I could share you optimism - unfortunately I just can't see it ending well. Peace to you too.
A reasonable reply. I may not yet be "at peace" with the decision but I accept that Britain is now leaving. My anger has given way to concern. My main concern is that I do not yet detect in any of the political parties any real appreciation of the difficulties that lie ahead nor, indeed, any planning to seize whatever opportunities may be out there. Neither do I feel optimistic that Britain can remain open and tolerant. I don't claim to speak for other remainers but in one sense I wish I could share you optimism - unfortunately I just can't see it ending well. Peace to you too.

Blackkbeard's host回复Tofu63：说得相当合理。 我也许还没能平和面对脱欧，但我已经接受大不列颠正一去不复返。 我的愤怒来源于担忧。 我的主要关切是，我既没看到有任何一个政党提出前方任何真正意义上的困难，也没看到有计划去抓住可能存在的机会。 我不会乐观地觉得英国可以保持开放和宽容。 我不能代其他留欧派发声，但在某种意义上，我希望我能分享你的乐观 - 不幸的是我看不到好结局。 愿您也平静。

Neither do I feel optimistic that Britain can remain open and tolerant.
That's fair enough, everyone is entitled to their opinion, whatever it is, mine is that everything will be fine in the long term. TBH I expected it to be far, far worse to start with than it is now, but I was happy to accept that, as were all Leavers I imagine. Remainiacs love to tell us how disastrous it's going to be (it was from last June, but they changed that to triggering A50, and changed that until when we leave now) economic Armageddon etc, yet businesses from around the world still see UK as the place to invest, even "Deutsche Bank has agreed a deal to move to a new City headquarters, defying fears that large financial institutions are planning to leave the capital after Brexit." So who do think will end up being correct, giants like Deutsche Bank, Amazon, Boeing etc or Remainiacs, I know who my money is on.

Sirgar回复楼上：我也不会乐观地觉得英国可以保持开放和宽容。这相当公平，每个人有权利发表他们的意见，无论是什么。
就我看来，长期来说一切都会好的。老实说我预计那一天的到来会比较久。但开始挑战长时间的困难能比现在无作为的好。我乐意接受现状，我猜其他脱欧者也是。留欧派总喜欢告诉我情况将变得多糟糕（从去年6月开始，触发脱欧50条款他们改了一种说法，现在我们正式脱欧又改了说法）包括经济世界末日等等，然而来自世界各地的企业仍然把英国看作是投资的地方，甚至德意志银行已经决定迁往新城市总部，激起大型金融机构计划在出走伦敦的担忧，“ 但无论像德意志银行，亚马逊，波音这些商业巨擎，还是留欧派们，谁都不知道最终哪个决定是正确，而我都知道我的钱很安全。

Dave_Jones：I voted REMAIN but I do not buy this. Our trade gap has quickly narrowed from 5.something of GNP to 2.something of GNP because exports are holding up and import substitution is taking place. Consumer over-spending driven by ever-rising house prices is the Achilles heel of the UK economy, so a prolonged period of drawing-in of horns and falling house prices is probably a good thing. Unfortunately the BREXIT vote has stuck a big spanner in the works of the export machine: we had either better keep tariff-free access to the EU whilst we sort out trade deals or we are screwed.

我投了留欧一票，但我对这报道不买账。我们的贸易差额正在快速从5收窄，部分国民生产总值变成2，因为出口正变艰难，进口替代产品的行为却在进行中。
消费者过度消费推动着不断上涨的房价是英国经济的致命伤。长时间拉响警报让房价下降可能是一件好事。
不幸的是脱欧投票是卡住出口机器运行的大扳手：我们要不必须留着欧盟的免税通道，要不脱欧同时要达成免税贸易协议，否则大家都要完蛋。

Streetgang：Interesting to see that the EU's growth this 1st quarter is double that of the UK.
I wonder when brexit fanatics will come to their senses ?

有趣的是看到欧盟第一季度的增长是英国的2倍。不知看到这狂热于脱欧的人会不会清醒过来。

It's all too easy:That's because the UK hasn't left yet!!! LOL!!!!!

It's all too easy回复楼上：那是因为英国还没脱离欧盟，他们把英国的GDP也算上去了！！笑cry！！！！

Wendy Graham：
Entirely not a surprise to every small and micro business. just wait for a VAT increase to really kill growth

对每个中小企业来说并不惊讶。坐等增值税上涨到截断经济增长。

Ladofkent：Agreed. Things have been looking very bleak since the new year.

Ladofkent回复楼上：同意，新年以来都非常惨淡。

martindavis：Collapsing currency and collapsing GDP. Well done kipperanuses you got your blue passports but you still don't know the full price you will pay, but you might be starting to get a clue.

汇率暴跌和GDP暴跌，干的好啊， 你拿到了你的蓝色英国护照但是你还不知道你要为此付出多少。也许你从现在开始该有点思绪。

honest：Forgive me but did the economy collapse when growth was 0.2% in the 1st qtr of 2016. where are you getting collapse from, surely anything better than the predicted financial Armageddon is a win, win.

honest回复楼上：抱歉但是当2016年第一季度GDP增速是0.2%的时候，我们的经济崩溃了吗？你从哪里得出崩溃的结论？要确信一切比预计的金融末日危机要好，我们在共赢。

Bull：growth 0.2 but inflation is 1% so insect mind

Bull回复楼上:增速是0.2%但通货膨胀是1%，脑容量太小就别出来瞎BB

Athanasius：
This proves the UK is on the point of economic collapse. Well, well that's what the little Englanders always say about the eurozone when IT has a dip like this, isn't it?

这证明了英国在经济崩溃的边缘。好，好。当意大利处于经济低潮的时候小英国人们也总这么说欧元区，不是吗？

Honest：We had not voted Brexit in the 1980 recession, nor in the 1990 recession nor in the 2008 recession. We had not voted Brexit the last time the pound was exchanging at $1.30 or the last time quarterly growth was at 0.3%. So why is this all of a sudden the Brexit affect. We did not vote to leave the EU in the belief that we would have massive growth in 2017, we voted to leave despite the predictions of financial Armageddon. So remainers it will take more than a cyclical downturn to deter the majority from leaving the united states of Europe.

我们没有在1980年经济衰退上投票脱欧，在1990的经济崩溃没有，2008年的经济危机也没有。在上次英镑汇率是1.3美金的时候和上次季度GDP增速是0.3%全都没有投票脱欧，为什么这次就要把责任归咎于脱欧影响？我们投票脱欧并非是我们相信2017年能够巨大增长，我们是为了金融末日的预言而投离开的票。所以留欧派们，一个周期性衰退是无法恐吓住要脱离欧盟的大多数人的。

Leo:Are you really stupid or you're doing it on purpose?

Leo回复楼上：你是真傻逼还是故意装逼？

Brent：Perhaps it won't be of a cyclical nature? Some of those that voted Leave, voted to lose their job, voted to to lose their house and voted for bankruptcy ... absolutely no sympathy.

难道不是因果报应？这些投票脱欧的，给他们下岗投了赞成票，给失去自己房子投了赞成票，给自己破产投了赞成票...丝毫不值得同情。

rightsedfred：Just another Brexit effect. Won't be long before the soup kitchens will be needed.

只是脱欧的又一个效应。不久之后就移动施粥厂会有需求了。

Martincp：We have them already and food banks but nothing to do with Brexit.

Martincp回复楼上：我们已经在施粥，但食物银行跟脱欧一点关系都没有。赞0 踩 1
dimotane co：That's the 'Tory effect'.

dimotane co回复楼上：那只是“保守党效应”. 赞7 踩 0

译者注：食物银行也是用来做慈善分派食物给流浪汉的。

Ladofkent：Greece's problems are down to a corrupt financial system and large scale tax evasion. Our problems are down to a few rightwing nutters and their band of followers

希腊的问题是他们陷入腐败金融体系和大规模逃税。我们的问题归结于一些右翼疯子和他们的追随者。赞15 踩 0

andytomlins：'Strong and Stable' slump in GDP

真是强势又稳定下滑的GDP

Opinator：Deluded Brexiters are still claiming UK has the highest growth rate among the EU countries.

谎话精脱欧派仍然声称英国在欧洲中增长率最高

the realist：Not deluded. More like lying because they're too stupid to admit they're wrong.

the realist回复楼上：并不是欺骗，看起像谎话是因为他们太笨鸟，以致无法承认他们错了

Leo：UK still has all the advantages of the EU.
What will happen in 2019?
All what Brexit offer is:
1. No deal. Its features include:
• WTO rules
• No financial passporting
• No right to travel in Europe
• No customs union
• No access to the Single Market.
• Immediate 10% tariffs on all UK exports.
2. The pound duation vs $ and
3. People are beginning to feel the inflation effect..
4. Danger ; NFU said 72 per cent of agricultural exports go to the EU with some sectors being heavily dependent.
5. Country divided by political crisis.
6. Ireland’s border ?....
7. Scottish independence ?.......
8. And so many businesses only with questions without answers "Toyota - Nissan....." 46% of UK export-->EU
9. Bosses of some of the world’s biggest financial institutions have firmed up their intentions to move thousands of jobs out of London to cities around the world as a result of Brexit, HSBC, UBS, Goldman Sachs, Lloyd’s of London, Barclays, JP Morgan Banks...
10. After the Brexit vote, the UK is no longer the fastest growing G7 economy "but only the fifth, just ahead of Italy and Japan
And all this is the beginning....
There is no cake " nor even the crumbs ..." promised by all those who campaigned for Brexit and disappeared like rats abandoning the sinking ship.
Politicians will only move beyond gestures once there will be a critical mass of angry citizens, but it will be too late.

现英国仍然拥有欧盟内的所有特权。
猜猜2019年会发生什么？
脱欧能提供的是：
1.没有订单，包括：
•WTO规则
•没有财务护照
•无权在欧洲旅行
•没有关税同盟
•无法访问单一市场。
•所有英国出口即时收取10％的关税。
2.英镑vs 美金和欧元，贬值。
3.人们开始感受到通货膨胀的影响。
4.危机：NFU表示，72％的农产品出口到欧盟，部分行业严重依赖出口。
5.国家因为政治危机分裂。
6.爱尔兰边界扩张？
7.苏格兰独立？
8.许多企业毫无头绪如”丰田，日产.....”46％由英国出口到欧盟
9.世界上最大的金融机构之一，汇丰银行，瑞银，高盛，伦敦劳埃德银行，巴克莱银行，摩根大通等等，
由于脱欧，已经确定了将数以千计的工作从伦敦千移至就近城市。
10.在脱欧公投之后，英国不再是增长最快的七国集团经济体，而是仅次于意大利和日本的第五名
所有这一切都是开始....
“没有蛋糕，连面包屑都没有......“所有那些为竞选而宣传脱欧并做出承诺的人们的，像老鼠一样放弃沉没的英国船只。
一旦出现大量愤怒的公民，政治家只会浮夸作秀，但现在为时已晚。

译者
注：（七国集团，或称“西方七大工业国”，即：加拿大、法国、德国、英国、意大利、日本、美国）; G7会议是此7国为研究经济形势; 开始于1975年。

MrBishi：Brexit is going very much as many of us predicted; and it is NOT going at all how the Brexiteers assured us that it would.
It will get worse, which is why Theresa May wants to secure an extra couple of years with the chauffeured cars and flunkies。

脱欧后果正像我们大多预料的一样，却不会像脱欧派向我们保证不会发生的那样。
事情会变得更糟，如果梅姨还想要享受多几年的司机和仆人服务。（意思是梅姨如果想连任会更糟）

Hackneyed：Just shows how confident people are with leaving the EU and May's "leadership". I don't expect it to be any different for the next quarter, what with her approach to the pre negotiation stage ("They're all out to get us!!!" etc). Ruinous.

只是说明了脱欧派和梅姨带领下领导层有多么自大。别奢望下个季度有什么不同，看看她在谈判前阶段的做风
（那些人都会出来热烈欢迎我们的！！！等等）真是毁了。

Spyder：Aren't we doing well?

是我们做得不够好吗？

richard1949：Well better than the first quarter of 2016.

回复楼上：额，比16年第一季度的0.2%增速好。

brit_in_berlin：Lol.Do you actually know how much the Greek economy will need to grow for it to pay back its debts and the additional bailout packages on top?
It's a little bit more than 1.5% annual GDP.

笑cry.你知道现在袭来经济需要增长多大才能偿还债务和额外的救市方案吗？大概要比他们年度GDP高1.5%还多。

sirgar:By the time the Germans have finished taking over Greece, well the best bits, there won't be much left
They started with the airports, now they're onto the ports.

sirgar回复楼上：当德国完全接管希腊，最好的骡子都不会剩下了。他们会从机场撤离，现在他们已经进舱。

（大概讽刺希腊人逃避还债，不停的向国外转移资产。）

（译者：mich）

（来源：http://www.ltaaa.com/wtfy/21990.html）