全球增长——依然中国制造 [美国媒体]

Global Growth – Still Made in China

全球增长——依然中国制造



AUG 29, 2016  2016年8月

NEW HAVEN – Despite all the hand-wringing over the vaunted China slowdown, the Chinese economy remains the single largest contributor to world GDP growth. For a global economy limping along at stall speed – and most likely unable to withstand a significant shock without toppling into renewed recession – that contribution is all the more important. 

纽黑文—夸大中国减速的焦虑不绝于耳，但中国经济仍然是世界GDP增长的最大贡献者。对于以失速速度蹒跚前行的全球经济而言——如果再来一次大冲击，恐怕就无法避免再次陷入衰退了——这一贡献无比重要。

A few numbers bear this out. If Chinese GDP growth reaches 6.7% in 2016 – in line with the government’s official target and only slightly above the International Monetary Fund’s latest prediction (6.6%) – China would account for 1.2 percentage points of world GDP growth. With the IMF currently expecting only 3.1% global growth this year, China would contribute nearly 39% of the total.

一组数据说明了这一点。如果2016年中国GDP增长达到6.7%——与政府官方目标一致，略高于国际货币基金组织（IMF）的最新预测6.6%——则中国将为世界GDP增长贡献1.2个百分点。目前，IMF 预测今年全球增长仅为3.1%，这意味着其中中国的贡献接近39%。

That share dwarfs the contribution of other major economies. For example, while the United States is widely praised for a solid recovery, its GDP is expected to grow by just 2.2% in 2016 – enough to contribute just 0.3 percentage points to overall world GDP growth, or only about one-fourth of the contribution made by China.

如此比重令其他主要经济体汗颜。比如，尽管人们广泛赞扬美国稳步复苏，但其2016年增长率预计只有2.2%——只能为世界总GDP增长贡献0.3个百分点，或者中国贡献幅度的四分之一。

A sclerotic European economy is expected to add a mere 0.2 percentage points to world growth, and Japan not even 0.1 percentage point. China’s contribution to global growth is, in fact, 50% larger than the combined 0.8-percentage-point contribution likely to be made by all of the so-called advanced economies.

僵化的欧洲经济预计只能给世界增长带来0.2个百分点，日本恐怕连0.1个百分点都达不到。事实上，中国对全球增长的贡献要比所有所谓的发达经济体的贡献之和（0.8个百分点）高出50%。

Moreover, no developing economy comes close to China’s contribution to global growth. India’s GDP is expected to grow by 7.4% this year, or 0.8 percentage points faster than China. But the Chinese economy accounts for fully 18% of world output (measured on a purchasing-power-parity basis) – more than double India’s 7.6% share. That means India’s contribution to global GDP growth is likely to be just 0.6 percentage points this year – only half the 1.2-percentage-point boost expected from China.

此外，没有发展中经济体对全球增长的贡献可以与中国相比。印度GDP预计今年将增长7.4%，比中国快0.8个百分点。但中国经济占世界产出的整整18%（以购买力平价衡量），是印度的7.6%的两倍多。这意味着今年印度对全球GDP增长的贡献可能只有0.6个百分点——只有中国预计贡献幅度1.2个百分点的一半。

More broadly, China is expected to account for fully 73% of total growth of the so-called BRICS grouping of large developing economies. The gains in India (7.4%) and South Africa (0.1%) are offset by ongoing recessions in Russia (-1.2%) and Brazil (-3.3%). Excluding China, BRICS GDP growth is expected to be an anemic 3.2% in 2016.

光广泛地看，预计中国将占所谓的金砖国家（大型发展中经济体集团）总增长的整整73%。印度（7.4%）和南非（0.1%）的贡献将被俄罗斯（-1.2%）和巴西（-3.3%）所抵消。剔除中国的话，2016年金砖国家GDP预计将只有3.2%。

So, no matter how you slice it, China remains the world’s major growth engine. Yes, the Chinese economy has slowed significantly from the 10% average annual growth recorded during the 1980-2011 period. But even after transitioning from the “old normal” to what the Chinese leadership has dubbed the “new normal,” global economic growth remains heavily dependent on China.

因此，不管你如何剖析，中国仍然是世界主要经济引擎。诚然，中国经济较1980—2011年间平均每年10%的增长已经大幅放缓。但即使在从“旧常态”转为中国领导层所谓的“新常态”后，全球经济增长仍然严重依赖中国。

There are three key implications of a persistent China-centric global growth dynamic.

长期以中国为核心的全球增长动态有三个重要影响。

First, and most obvious, continued deceleration of Chinese growth would have a much greater impact on an otherwise weak global economy than would be the case if the world were growing at something closer to its longer-term trend of 3.6%. Excluding China, world GDP growth would be about 1.9% in 2016 – well below the 2.5% threshold commonly associated with global recessions.

首先也是最显而易见的是，中国增长的持续减速对于疲软的全球经济的影响要比后者以接近3.6%的趋势增长率增长时的情况大得多。剔除中国的话，2016年世界GDP增长将在1.9%左右——远远低于常常伴随全球衰退的阈值2.5%。

The second implication, related to the first, is that the widely feared economic “hard landing” for China would have a devastating global impact. Every one-percentage-point decline in Chinese GDP growth knocks close to 0.2 percentage points directly off world GDP; including the spillover effects of foreign trade, the total global growth impact would be around 0.3 percentage points.

第二个影响与第一个有关，即人们广泛担心的中国经济“硬着陆”将带来灾难性的全球影响。中国GDP增长每下降一个百分点，都将直接拉低近0.2个百分点的世界GDP；若包括对外贸易的溢出效应，总全球增长影响将在0.3个百分点左右。

Defining a Chinese hard landing as a halving of the current 6.7% growth rate, the combined direct and indirect effects of such an outcome would consequently knock about one percentage point off overall global growth. In such a scenario, there is no way the world could avoid another full-blown recession.

将中国硬着陆定义为当前6.7%的增长率下降一半，则其直接和间接总影响将是全球总增长下降一个百分点左右。在这个情形中，世界将无法不免又一次大衰退。

Finally (and more likely in my view), there are the global impacts of a successful rebalancing of the Chinese economy. The world stands to benefit greatly if the components of China’s GDP continue to shift from manufacturing-led exports and investment to services and household consumption.

最后（更有可能只是我的观点），中国经济成功再平衡也会带来全球影响。如果中国GDP的组成要素继续发生改变，从制造业拉动的出口和投资转变为服务和家庭消费，那么世界将大受裨益。

Under those circumstances, Chinese domestic demand has the potential to become an increasingly important source of export-led growth for China’s major trading partners – provided, of course, that other countries are granted free and open access to rapidly expanding Chinese markets. A successful Chinese rebalancing scenario has the potential to jump-start global demand with a new and important source of aggregate demand – a powerful antidote to an otherwise sluggish world. That possibility should not be ignored, as political pressures bear down on the global trade debate.

在这样的环境下，中国内需有可能成为中国主要贸易伙伴出口拉动型增长的重要源泉——当然，一个前提是其他国家能自由开放地进入快速扩张的中国市场。中国成功再平衡的情形有望以新的重要总需求源提振全球需求——这对于停滞的世界来说是一针强心剂。也许我们不应该忽视这一可能，因为全球贸易争论正在受到政治压力。

All in all, despite all the focus on the US, Europe, or Japan, China continues to hold the trump card in today’s weakened global economy. While a Chinese hard landing would be disastrous, a successful rebalancing would be an unqualified boon. That could well make the prognosis for China the decisive factor for the global economic outlook.

总而言之，尽管所有的焦点都集中在美国、欧洲和日本身上，但中国仍然是当今疲软的全球经济的王牌。中国硬着陆将是灾难性的，但成功的再平衡将是不折不扣的提振。因此，可以断言，中国才是全球经济前景的决定性因素。

While the latest monthly indicators show China’s economy stabilizing at around the 6.7% growth rate recorded in the first half of 2016, there can be no mistaking the headwinds looming in the second half of the year. In particular, the possibility of a further downshift in private-sector fixed-asset investment could exacerbate ongoing pressures associated with deleveraging, persistently weak external demand, and a faltering property cycle.

最新月度指标表明，中国经济已经稳定在2016年上半年所报告的6.7%的增长附近，但下半年仍然阻力重重。特别是，私人部门固定资产投资进一步下滑的可能性可能加剧去杠杆、外部需求持续低迷以及房地产周期由盛转衰所带来的压力。

But, unlike the major economies of the advanced world, where policy space is severely constrained, Chinese authorities have ample scope for accommodative moves that could shore up economic activity. And, unlike the major economies of the developed world, which constantly struggle with a tradeoff between short-term cyclical pressures and longer-term structural reforms, China is perfectly capable of addressing both sets of challenges simultaneously.

但是，和政策空间严重受限的主要发达经济体不同，中国当局有足够的空间调整以支撑经济活动。与一直在短期周期性压力和长期结构改革之间权衡的主要发达经济体不同，中国完全有能力同时解决这两大挑战。

To the extent that the Chinese leadership is able to maintain such a multi-dimensional policy and reform focus, a weak and still vulnerable global economy can only benefit. The world needs a successful China more than ever.

只要中国领导层能够保持这一多维度政策和改革重点，疲软且依旧脆弱的全球经济就可能受益。世界比任何时候都需要成功的中国。

原创评论翻译：

Walter Gingery AUG 29, 2016
"Chinese domestic demand has the potential to become an increasingly important source of export-led growth for China’s major trading partners – PROVIDED, of course, that other countries are granted free and open access to rapidly expanding Chinese markets." 

中国内需有可能成为中国主要贸易伙伴出口拉动型增长的重要源泉——当然，一个前提是其他国家能自由开放地进入快速扩张的中国市场。（引用原文）

That's a big IF. Moreover, the author doesn't address the question of the extent to which growth in the Chinese economy -- and hence Chinese employment -- is bought by exporting unemployment to other countries by such policies as financial repression, suppression of labor unions, political persecution, capital controls, etc.

这是一个很大的信息反馈。此外，作者没有提及中国经济——以及由此产生的中国就业的增长程度，是出口到其他国家的失业为此买单的，通过一些政策诸如金融压制、工会镇压、政治迫害、资本控制等等。 

Craig Stevenson AUG 29, 2016
Has anyone noticed that this contribution to global growth notion, is a term that has arisen since the beginning of the GFC, which seems to confound the issues at hand.

有没有人注意到，这种对全球增长贡献的概念是自全球金融危机开始以来出现的一个术语，这似乎混淆了手头上的问题。

It's sounds to me like the Miss Personality award at a beauty pagent.

在我听来就像是个性小姐在美容区得了个奖一样。（译者注：Miss Personality 通常指那些以为自己比其他人更好的自负的人，对其他人嗤之以鼻，极度肤浅者。）

Why not percentage of final user demand.

为什么不是最终用户需求的百分比。

Or the countries that least seek to attach themselves to others demand by restraint (refusing to use blatantly non-free market policies to gather treasure and distort the global development project)

或者那些最不愿意依靠他人的国家需要克制自己 （拒绝使用公然的非自由市场政策来收集财富和扭曲全球发展计划。）

Craig Stevenson AUG 29, 2016
RE Gingery:
回复Gingery: （第一个评论者）

FDI  

对外直接投资

Export Rebates

出口退税

Low-Cost, No-Cost Loans 

低成本、免费贷款

Tax Abatements 

税收减免

Support for worker housing and food, transportation 

对职员住房、食物和交通的支持

Internal Re-greening of Loans 

内部进行重建的贷款

easy access to capital for (state supported org's, not just owned) 

容易获得资金（国家支持的组织，不仅仅是国有的）

Craig Stevenson AUG 29, 2016
Succesful rebalancing is in balancing to domestic drivers of growth.

成功的再平衡是在平衡国内增长的驱动力。

It seems the author conjectures, essentially to consumption as a component of GDP. It is strange how the author commends the contribution to global growth, when the nature of that contribution, the run up in investment, sees the very rebalancing he imagines could lead to China as a mass importer, be undermined due to the inability of CHinese consumers to consume in the proportions he imagines.

看来作者推测，本质上将消费作为GDP的组成部分。奇怪的是，作者赞扬对全球经济增长的贡献，当这种贡献的本质，投资的增长，他想象的再平衡可能导致中国大量进口，由于他所想象的中国消费者的消费能力削弱而被破坏。 （不知是否是在这个意思，翻起来很拗口。）

Simply, as investment rose as a share of GDP, growth increased and they imported more natural reosurces due to the nature of growth (heavyily capitla and resource intensive).

简单地说，由于投资在GDP中的份额增加，增长增加，并且由于增长的性质（资本和资源密集型），它们进口更多的自然资源。

That did two things, it saw rises in incomes due to continued GDP growht and mass amounts of capital slosshing around. It also saw consumption as a share shrink. 

这导致了两件事。由于持续的GDP增长和大规模的资金流动，它看到了收入的上涨。它也看到消费份额的萎缩。

What does the author think will happen as investment as a share of GDP falls......well, incomes will fall, GDP headline numbers will fall, and does he think that China, in a worse position than Japan in the late 1980's, early 1990's can even be as susccessful as Japan, which had the Tigers, China, Eastern Europe, and elsewher e growing, in a world of dmeograhic decline in the areas that consume final good products, while there has been over-investment in extractive globally, production globally, as the advanced world faces slowing consumption do to againg, and high population growth in very poor regions of the world, coupled to over-investment elsewhere, ensures no new green shoots.

作者认为投资占GDP比重下降将会发生什么。。。好吧，收入会下降，GDP总体数量会下降，他是否认为80年代后期中国的处境比日本更糟糕，90年代初期跟日本一样成功，其中包括猛虎组织、中国、东欧和其他地方增长，在全球消费最终良好产品的地区出现下降，而全球采掘业过度投资 ，全球化生产，随着发达国家正面临着消费放缓，世界非常贫困地区人口的高增长，加上其他地方的过度投资，确保没有新的绿芽。

Wake up financial-techno-international globalists, your delusions have killed global devleopment.

醒来吧国际金融技术全球化支持者，你的妄想已经杀害了全球发展。

Paul Friesen AUG 29, 2016
China is still benefiting from its policy decision back in 2008 to provide a really big fiscal stimulus package to counter the effects of the sub-prime meltdown. It was about 15% of its GDP, while other countries seldom provided more than 2%, and it helped not only China, but the commodity exporters who supplied it.

中国仍然从2008年的政策决定中获益，提供了一个非常大的财政刺激计划，以抵消次贷危机的影响。大概是其GDP的15%，而其他国家很少能提供2%以上。这不仅帮助了中国，也帮助了那些供应它的商品出口商。

If only we could learn from this example. When monetary policy runs out of steam at the zero interest rate, you need to use fiscal policy. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

要是我们能从这个例子中学习多好。当货币政策在零利率下失去动力时，你需要使用财政政策。对我而言这似乎是明摆着的事。 

ROHIT CHANDAVARKER AUG 29, 2016
One needs to take the figures put out by China with some doubt. There is a case for closer monitoring of the growth figures released by Beijing. 

首先需要怀疑一下中国提出的数据。有必要更密切地监控北京发布的增长指标。

Secondly, one needs to factor in Debt to GDP ratio in the overall analysis. Of particular note is the local level & municipal debt which is estimated at more than 200% of GDP.

其次，在整体分析中需要考虑债务与GDP的比率。 特别值得注意的是地方级和市政级债务，估计超过GDP的200％。 

Thirdly, the transition from investment led growth to consumer led one has been painful so far but it is hard to predict the extent & depth of the pain that is still left.

第三，从投资带动增长到消费带动的转型迄今已经令人痛苦，但很难预测仍然存在的痛苦的程度和深度。

Fourthly, one wonders how the Chinese policy decisions would be made considering the ham handed manner in which the currency crisis & the stock market fall was handled or mishandled.Global growth has shown no signs of determined revival & in such a scenario, Chinese exports would be hit thereby reducing export revenues resulting in currency gyrations. Any move towards duing the renminbi by China would result in competitive duation leading to difficult currency crisis. 

第四，人们怀疑中国的政策方针如何就货币危机和股市下跌的过分帮助方式而言是处理或处理不当的。全球增长没有显示出明确的复苏迹象，在这种情况下，中国出口将受到打击，从而减少出口收入，导致汇率波动。任何中国人民币贬值的举动都将导致竞争性贬值，引起艰难的货币危机。

Hence, even though China is powering global growth there are ominous signs indicating turbulence ahead. And this could be of China's doing. 

因此，尽管中国正在推动全球经济增长，但也有不祥的迹象表明前面存在动荡。 这可能是中国正在做的。

The forthcoming G20 summit in China was to have been China's crowning moment but is likely to be overshadowed by the intransigent behaviour by Beijing towards the SCS dispute. The Western powers are bound to raise this issue thereby precluding any effort made by Xi Jinping to focus on China's primacy on the global economic scene. Hence one expects little of substance on world's economy from the China summit leading to further uncertainty.

中国即将举行的20国集团首脑会议将是中国最辉煌的时刻，但可能会被北京对南海争端的顽固行为所掩盖。 西方列强必然会提出这个问题，从而排除习聚焦于中国在全球经济舞台上的主导地位的任何努力。 因此，人们期待中国峰会对世界经济几乎没有实质内容，导致进一步的不确定性。

tom bergerson AUG 29, 2016
The fact that China is such a large part of global growth is what is scary. Sure they look to have bought some more growth this year by creating yet more trillions of dollars of debt with much of it going to roll over existing bad debt to forestall margin calls, and sure they can do that for a long time in a quasi-command economy. But one can be fairly certain they do not really know what they are doing and that at some point it will unravel. That much debt (north of 30 trillion dollar) in under a decade must inevitably result in a credit crisis. When that comes, then global GDP not only doesnt have a positive contribution from China but a negative one. Rue that day. 

中国占全球增长这么大一部分的事实是可怕的。当然，他们看起来今年通过创造更多的万亿美元的债务，增加了一些更多的增长，其中大部分将转存现有的坏账，以弥补保证金要求，并确信他们可以在很长一段时间这样做——计划经济。 但可以肯定的是，他们真的不知道他们在做什么，并且在某一时刻下它会解开。那么多的债务(30万亿美元以上)在十年之内必不可避免地导致信贷危机。 到那时，全球GDP不仅没有来自中国的积极贡献，而且会是负面贡献。那天就后悔了。

——yw yap AUG 30, 2016
dear Tom, 

亲爱的Tom,

Going fwd many things are scary, incl. ISIS overrunning ME, EU collapsing with Brexit really occurring, or US electing Trump. Guess shouldn't we just be happy NOW that we aren't falling?

有很多事都是很可怕的，包括ISIS极度自私、随着英国真的退欧、欧盟垮台，或者美国选举特朗普。想想既然我们不是在下降，难道我们不应该开心吗？

yw yap AUG 30, 2016
Gotta thank Mr Stephen Roach for highlighting salient points. Going fwd I guess it will less likely be a "Us & Them" situation as Chinese bizs integrate with global economy at multiple levels. Chinese are putting in investments in large MNCs, in foreign lands, and Chinese-owned bizs are engaging foreign brains for inputs.

要感谢斯蒂芬•罗奇先生强调了要点。我认为中国经济在多个层次上与全球经济相结合，我们不太可能是“我们与他们”的局面。中国人正在投资大型跨国公司，在外国的土地上，而中国拥有的公司正在吸引外国人才的加入。

Steve Hurst AUG 30, 2016
'Global Growth – Still Made in China' 

“全球增长——依然中国制造”

As though everything made in China is good

好像中国做的一切都很好

Richard Solomon SEP 4, 2016
I wish I could be as optimistic as Mr. Roach is about the PRC's ability to address 'both short term cyclical pressures and longer term structural reforms successfully.' So far it has not demonstrated that it is capable of doing this. How much more debt can it tolerate before it begins to sag under the weight of it? Or can it continue to manipulate its currency without causing undue social unrest?

我希望我能像罗奇先生那样乐观地认为中国有能力成功地解决“短期周期性压力和长期结构改革”。到目前为止，它还没有表明它有能力这样做。在它开始走下坡之前，它还能承受多少债务？还是可以继续操纵其货币，而不会造成过分的社会动荡？

Mr. Roach also fails to address two related issues. First, the social unrest lying not far below the surface is partially the result of growing income inequality and ongoing lack of economic opportunity for its rural citizens.Many of those who live in the large cities are doing pretty well. Those who live in the countryside and cannot legally, easily emigrate to the cities are still quite poor. How/when does the government address these issues? Second, what about its energy policies? IF it continues to rely on coal as its major way of generating electricity, the country will live in a cloud of smog. And it will exacerbate the climate change challenge which it, and the world, is facing.

罗奇先生也未能解决两个相关问题。 首先，不远低于表面的社会动荡部分是由于收入不平等的加剧以及其农村居民持续缺乏经济机会所导致的。居住在大城市的人中的许多人都做得很好。 那些住在乡村，不合法的，容易移据到城市的人仍然相当贫穷。 政府如何/何时解决这些问题？ 第二，其能源政策如何？ 如果它继续依靠煤炭作为发电的主要方式，该国将生活在一片烟雾中。 它将加剧它和世界正面临的气候变化挑战。

Robbie Jena SEP 4, 2016
Rather than China taking the lead and getting all the marbles, We can do this too. Need groups to jump in. Let me know on Industrial Ecosystems that was implemented in China and does work very well. Thank you.

不仅仅中国带头得到所有的弹珠，我们也可以。需要大家的参与。让我知道在中国实施的工业生态系统并做得非常好。 谢谢。

eusebio manuel SEP 4, 2016
G20 Happy Green Science health and human rights

G20快乐的绿色科学健康与人权

Thinking Indian SEP 5, 2016
Thanks to its low base, India has potential to grow at double digits, if only its leaders agree on rapid reforms , which are hampered by petty politics. GST tax reform is finally happening after a decade long struggle. Land acquisition reform is half done. Labor reforms moving slow, thanks to leftists. Most parties are refusing to accept election funding reforms, a major source of political corruption. Public sector struggling due to political interference. Still India contributes 0.6% to world growth, second highest after China.

由于其低基数，印度有潜力增长两位数，如果其领导人同意快速改革，这是受小政治的阻碍。 消费税税收改革终于在经过十年的长期斗争后发生了。征地改革已经完成了一半。 劳动改革进展缓慢，多亏了左派。大多数政党拒绝接受选举融资改革，这是政治腐败的主要根源。由于政治干预公共部门陷入困境。尽管如此印度对世界增长贡献了0.6％，是中国之后的第二高。

——Vipin Nehra NOV 7, 2016
Sorry dear Thinking indian, the land reforms are not land reforms, these are the land grab greedy plans of the industrialists. Should be fought tooth & nail..!!

抱歉亲爱的层主，此土地改革并非真的土地改革，而是企业家们攫取土地的贪婪计划。应该打掉牙齿和指甲。。。！！！

——Robbie Jena SEP 5, 2016
We were trying to provide massive energy developments for India and hence Pres. Obama went there in January, 2015. The Minister was told about it but did not support the energy plan and hence nothing came out since then. So, the Government needs to get more in to it.

我们试图为印度提供大量的能源开发， 奥巴马于2015年1月去了那里。部长被告知这件事，但不支持能源计划，因此从那时起什么也没有搞出来。所以，政府需要更多的资源。

Robert Thomas SEP 6, 2016
Stephen Roach is vastly over hyping the importance of China's GDP growth on the rest of the world. It is a truism to say that China makes up a large part of the figure for world GDP growth but that is a fairly meaningless figure. China does not contribute anything net to the rest of the world's economic growth; admittedly it provides an enormous market for the commodity producing nations of the world but it's vast and growing exports are a detractor from growth in the developed markets. A slowdown in China's economic growth would have very little effect on the developed economies.

斯蒂芬•罗奇肆意夸大了中国GDP增长对世界其他地区的重要性。众所周知中国在世界GDP增长数字中占了很大一部分，但那是一个相当无意义的数字。 中国对世界其他经济增长没有任何贡献; 诚然，它为世界商品生产国提供了一个巨大的市场，但它巨大的不断增长的出口阻碍了发达市场的增长。 中国经济增长放缓对发达经济体的影响甚微。