中国的债务狂欢可能摧毁全球经济，英国网友评

-------------译者：haleyyen-

Consumer business and government debt has surged to 230% of China’s economy – sparking fears of a high-risk bubble which could burst at any moment

Surging debt in China could cripple the world economy unless its Communist leaders take action now the International Monetary Fund has warned.

国际货币基金组织警告，中国债务的激增可能会摧毁全球经济，除非中国现在采取措施。

Consumer business and government debt has surged to around 240 per cent of the country's economy ? sparking fears of a high-risk bubble which could burst at any moment.

消费者，企业和政府债务已经相当于中国经济的240%左右。高风险经济泡沫随时可能破灭，由此引发了人们的恐惧。

The new Chinese middle class is a vital driver of global growth and a financial crisis in the country could plunge the planet into a fresh recession it is claimed.

据国际货币基金组织，新兴的中国中产阶级是全球经济增长的重要推动者，中国的一场金融危机可能将全球拖入新一轮的经济衰退中。

Unchecked borrowing growth on the scale experienced in China has often led to a sudden collapse the IMF said.

IMF称，中国大范围的无节制的借贷增长很可能会导致突然的经济崩塌。

'International experience suggests that China's credit growth is on a dangerous trajectory with increasing risks of a disruptive adjustment and a marked growth slowdown' researchers argued. 'Decisive policy action is needed to deflate the credit boom smoothly.'

研究人员表示，”国际经验表明，中国的信贷增长正处于危险的轨道上，出现一场破坏性调整的风险越来越大，显著增速也会放缓。““需要果断的政策来平稳地缩减信贷。”

-------------译者：haleyyen-

China's government debt is growing as a percentage of GDP according to figures from the IMF

The organisation claimed that annual growth has been propped up by free-and-easy lending to firms and families.

该组织还声称，中国的经济增长是通过不受限制的公司和家庭借贷而实现的。

It said that without this debt-fuelled spending the Chinese economy would have grown an average 5.3 per cent per year from 2012 to 2016. Instead it typically grew by 7.3 per cent.

没有这种债务刺激下的消费，2012到2016年间可能中国经济增长率平均只有每年5.3%。而事实上，中国的年均增长率达到7.3%。

In a chilling echo of the West's own crisis a decade ago which created space for the Chinese economy to become increasingly important analysts have argued that banks were behind the problem by coming up with more creative ways to make money.

与十年前的西方经济危机类似，分析家指出问题出在银行，它想用新的方式来赚钱。（但也正是这次危机才给了中国经济蓬勃发展的空间。）

In the US and Europe this led to disaster when highly complicated bundles of debt which few people understood were underpinned by worthless mortgages.

在美国和欧洲，当靠毫无价值的抵押来支撑高度复杂的债务时，灾难就降临了。

'Complex and primarily short-term funding structures underpinning rapid credit growth are a key vulnerability' the analysts said.

分析家表示，“主要用复杂的短期资金结构支撑快速信贷增长是致命的弱点。”

-------------译者：hht288-

They added: 'Banks' rapid asset expansion has relied on increasingly complex funding structures extending beyond deposit funding to interbank markets and wealth management products and via complex and interlixed networks of entities.

他们补充道：“银行”快速的资产扩张来源于日益复杂的融资结构，通过复杂的相互交织的经济实体网络，扩展到除存款资金外的银行间市场和各种财富管理产品等融资手段。

'Complex funding structures and sizable opaque off-balance sheet investments suggest that a deleveraging process in the financial sector could be bumpy.'

模不透明的表外投资表明，金融部门的去标杆化之路必将崎岖。”

The authorities in China are seeking to double the size of its economy between 2010 and 2020 and accept debt will play a key role.

中国当局正在推动其经济规模到2020年要比2010年翻一番，而期间扩大债务规模必将扮演重要角色。

Chinese borrowing has quadrupled since the crisis and hit ?22trillion at the end of last year ? bigger than the annual output of the UK US France and Germany combined.

自08年金融危机冲击以来，中国借贷规模已经翻了四番？去年底达到了22万亿？比英国、美国、法国和德国每年经济产出之和还要大。

According to the Washington-based IMF the nation's debt pile will be more than 290 per cent of the size of its economy in 2022.

据国际货币基金组织华盛顿总部估计，到2022年，该国的债务规模将超过其经济总量的290%。

评论翻译

-------------译者：majorc-

Geoff
Prediction by the IMF ........ mmmmmm
Simples bundle it and sell it to some next government jobs a good one

简单 打个包扔给后面的政府就万事大吉.

Bazo
It won't hurt Chinajust the stupid west for climbing into bed with them.

不会对中国有什么伤害 愚蠢的西方正和他们睡一张床上.

Ventus
It's all just '0000s' on a spreadsheet nowadays and the financiers/economists have lost all sense of reality.

只是表单里的一串0而已 金融家经济学家们现在已经对现实完全无感.

phillipsj4
Imature economy its not matter of If but when downfall will arrive.I suspect a credit downgrade should get it started.

经济不成熟 萧条时候就有得看了 我看给他们降降评级就能开始这过程.

Gigitty
I thought Communists shared the gravy why are Communists now all of a sudden Capitalists with bells on ? Didnt Communism work then ?Seems they are making a hash of capitalism as well so no doubt purges millions of deaths and they will close the door for another 20 yrs and start again.Chinese eh ...yer gorra larf.

我以为中国都是共有制的 怎么一下子中国都成了从头到尾的资本家了? 难道共产主义不灵了? 他们搞掉了几百万人灭了资本主义 说不定过个20年又会闭关自守. 中国人 ... 笑死了.

-------------译者：hht288-

Martial15
No Remaoners have blamed Brexit yet?

还没有支持留欧的唠叨鬼来谴责英国脱欧吗？

andy dufresne
The big one is coming.

大个的正过来了。

Bread man
It's not just the UK with massive debt problems then it must be a world problem that can be written off at some stage or governments would be a little more responsive to national debt! National debt don't worry about it.

看来不只英国有巨额债务问题啊，都快成一个世界性问题了，到了某个阶段就该一笔勾销了，否则政府早就采取更积极的措施应对了！国债还是不用担心的。

Modern Robin Hood
This debt is Wong on so many levels!

这种债务积累真是大错特错！

JDLR -> Modern Robin Hood
Good one

说得好

Azure-BlueFireDragon
China's debt problems has been flogged to death for the past few years by the City & Finance section of the DM - and in that time we are all told that it's good time to invest in China that British exports to China are on the increase as China's wealthier middle-classes take an interest in all things British etc. In any case Britain has borrowed money & is in billions pounds worth of debt still. Italy's financial woes are worse as a year or so ago they wanted more cash from the EU as there were fears they may end up like Greece with their banking crisis (or something like that). DM has a million-pound deal with China's biggest newspaper The People's Daily (since Aug. 2016) to publish China's news stories in the DM Online website - so things can't be that bad in China.

过去这几年，中国的债务问题这个话题都已经被每日邮报的城市与金融部炒烂了，那时候他们整天说什么现在正是投资中国的好时机，英国对中国的出口也在增长，因为中国富裕的中产阶级对英国的任何东西都感兴趣，等等。总之，英国借了很多钱，结果到现在还欠着几十亿英镑呢。意大利一年多前的金融困境更是糟糕，他们还想从欧盟拿到更多现金，因为他们害怕像希腊那么惨，陷入银行业危机（或是类似的状况）。每日邮报跟中国最大的报纸人民日报搞了笔一百万英镑的交易（自2016年8月起），用来在每日邮报的网站上刊载中国的新闻故事——所以中国那边的情况肯定还没那么坏。

-------------译者：hht288-

elysteve
Bothered ? nope

受困了? 不

nickmcvey -> elysteve
You should be!

你应该是！

vanmancun1
wealth management products and via complex and interlixed networks of entities. WHAT DOES THIS EVEN MEAN ?

各种财富管理产品，并通过复杂的相互交织的经济实体网络。这句话到底什么意思？

Azure-BlueFireDragon -> vanmancun1
@vanmancun1: In the world of city & finance nobody ever speaks in plain English. You are meant to be intimidated by their ultra-high intelligent superior financial & mega long binary numbers formula complex knowledge speak - to the point that you dare not ask what it all means. It's like going to a restaurant & the menu uses a lot of French terminology and you dare not ask what it all means as you don't want to appear stupid - especially as you have chosen to go into that restaurant because of its superior class image which is reflected (& so justified) in their expensive menu & wine list prices just so you can impress a fancy date a potential business client etc.

@vanmancun1: 城市与金融部那帮家伙都没人说人话。你估计是被他们给吓唬住了，他们整天拿些超高智力的超级金融和又大又长的二进制数学公式等复杂知识来说事——这样你就不敢问到底怎么回事了。就像是你跑进一家餐厅吃饭，一看菜单上写的都一堆法语写的菜名术语，而你又不敢问都是什么意思，因为这会让你显示很白痴——特别是当你因为看重他们的菜品和红酒都非常昂贵，能体现（或判断出）更优越的等级形象，所以才走进他们餐厅，而这样你就可以给美丽的约会对象或潜在的生意伙伴留下美好的印象，等等。