quora网友评：为什么许多经济学家认为印度在未来会超越中国？

（译者：Q__Q）

Why do most economists believe that India will surpass China in the future?

为什么许多经济学家认为印度在未来会超越中国？

美国问答网站quora网贴翻译

Tian Xia, General Manager
The truth is: the economy of India just remains the 2.8% of the entire world GDP, the share remains the same for the last 55 years.
The GDP of India is about 2.8% of the world GDP today.
It was 2.8% of the world since 1962.
There's no growth of the india’s GDP share, for 55 years,although the population India has grown by 300 millions.
Statistic scource:
GDP by Country | Statistics from IMF, 1980-2021 - knoema.com
IMF
India | Data
World bank

回复1
Tian Xia, 总经理
真相是：印度的经济只占了全球GDP的2.8%，在过去的55年里，这一比例维持不变。
今天印度的GDP大约占了全球GDP的2.8%。
从1962年开始占全球比例就是2.8%
55年来，印度的GDP占全球份额根本没有增长，但印度的人口却增加了3个亿。
数据来源：

GDP by Country | Statistics from IMF, 1980-2021 - knoema.com

国际货币基金组织

India | Data

世界银行

Sundaramoorthy P, Proprietor (2015-present)
why is this obsession with China economy? This is a theory propagated by western media. Why should India compete with China why not USA?
Are the wars between china and India main reasons? Then India should compete with the combined economies of Britain, Australia, Canada and New Zealand as the whites of these economies grew at the abuse of indian economy. Anyone (Indian) knew the reason as why Dalai Lama was given asylum in India? Why not in USA or any western countries? There are legitimate misunderstandings in the India China wars. That too foreign countries masterminded these. These wars are not the precursors for future war.
Historical India and China relations are good. Religiously and philosophically China and India have same understandings. There was never a war between us. Only Chinese and east Asians can understand us. So stop this unwanted obsession with China. There are more good things will happen if we have good relationship with China and east Asians(including south east Asian).
If China, India, Japan and asean becomes like NATO, then we constitute largest population, economic, military blocks without any challenges. This should be our century. American and European will become immaterial to us.

回复2
Sundaramoorthy P,经营商（2015至今）
为什么要这么迷恋中国经济？这是西方媒体的舆论宣传。为什么印度比较的对象是中国却不是美国？
中印之间的战争是主要原因？那么印度应该和英国、澳大利亚、加拿大、新西兰的经济总和比较，因为这些白人国家的经济增长是建立在剥削印度经济的基础上。每个人（印度人）都知道DLLM在印度获得庇护的原因吗？为什么不是在美国或者其他西方国家寻求庇护？在印度中国战争中存在传统上的误解，正是西方国家策划了这些。这些战争并不表示印度和中国在未来也会有战争。
历史上印度和中国关系良好。中国和印度在宗教和哲学上有着相同的理解。过去在我们之间从来没有爆发过战争。只有中国人和东亚人能够理解我们。所以没必要在沉迷于中国了。如果我们与中国和东亚各国（包括东南亚人）保持良好的关系，那就会有更多的益处。
如果中国、印度、日本和东盟像北约那样联合在一起，那么我们会有最多的人口，最强大的经济、军事力量，无人能阻挡。这将会是我们的世纪。美国人和欧洲人在我们看来只是无足轻重的。

Victor Tan, studied at Heriot-Watt University
I wonder why are Indians so obsessed nowadays to talk about India surpassing China rather than aspiring to surpass the US?
These flashy tables and statistics while making arguments look compelling is a pcs of waffle with very little meaning and has ignored the fundamental problems that impede Indian’s development.
India as it is today was a creation of british colonialism. It is so diverse and does not have a common lineage nor langauage, rendering impossible for any Indian leader to address this so called world biggest democracy in Hindi or any other language and be understood by the entire nation.
China, despite also experiencing diversity (to a lesser extent compared to India as it is predorminatly Han people) was already a unified country with common language since Qin Shih Huang Di (the emperor known for building the great wall of China) emerged as its ruler more than 2 thousand years ago.
What makes a nation great hinges on its population composition.
The caste system (though may have been constitutionally outlawed during the days of mahatma Gandhi) remained deeply entrenched in Indian’s society. This adversely impede the diaspora of the smartest or brightest genes within Indian society.
The Indian smartest and brightest often seek greener pastures outside India (like the Silicon Valley or Wall Street). Conversely it is also true the world brightest would chose not to come to India.
This explains why US despite only having around a third of either India or Chinese population remains world super power till date.
Being the world most populous country in time to come means nothing if birth of duds remains uncontrolled.
In essence you need quality population to generate quality growth.
China being the most populous nation since history of mankind did not make them perpetual superpower. The humuliation by more industrious (smaller) countries (notably Great Britain) for more than one and a half century since 1840 opium wars can attest.
Indian society in many facets remains extremely left skewed till this day compared to Chinese society.
India has never eclipsed china historically. For the above reasons I put forward, it never will.
India will understandably find this painful truth hard to stomach and will continue to defy whatever the odds are.

回复3
Victor Tan, 就读于赫瑞瓦特大学
我很好奇为什么今天的印度人沉迷于谈论印度将超越中国却不渴望超越美国？
这些华而不实的表格和统计数据看起来很有说服力，但实际上就是毫无意义的胡扯，这些东西忽略了那些阻碍印度发展的根本性问题。
今天的印度是英国殖民主义的产物。印度太多元化了，没有形成共同的联系和相同的语言。对于任何一个印度领导人来说都无法处理这个用印度语和其他语言的世界上最大民主国家，印度领导人也无法获得整个国家的理解。
中国，尽管也富有多样性（但比起印度来说更弱，因为汉族占统治地位），从2000多年前的统治者秦始皇（众所周知建造了长城的皇帝）以来就成为了一个大一统的国家，有着统一的语言。
如何让一个国家变得伟大取决于其人口构成。
种姓制度（尽管在圣雄甘地时期，可能在宪法上就被禁止了）在印度社会中的影响仍根深蒂固。这极大地阻碍了印度社会中最聪明之人的迁移。
最聪明的印度人经常在印度以外的地方寻找更美好的生活（例如硅谷或者华尔街）。相反的是，世界上最聪明的人也不会选择前往印度。
这也就解释了为什么美国只有印度或中国三分之一的人口，仍能在现在保持超级大国地位的原因。
如果重视种姓的陋习无法得到限制的话，那么成为世界上人口最多的国家也就没什么意义了。
从本质上说，你需要高质量的人口来促进高质量的增长。
中国是人类历史上人口最多的国家，并没有使其成为永久的超级大国。从1840年鸦片战争以来，中国被更勤劳（更小的）国家（尤其是英国）所羞耻长达一个半世纪，这就证明了这一点。
与中国社会相比，印度社会在许多方面仍然极度偏左。
从历史上来看，印度从未超越中国。因为我提出的上述理由，这永远不可能。
不难理解，印度将难以接受这一痛苦的事实，并将无视胜算多少继续挑衅中国。

Dimitar Berberu, DatAnalytics Maths Holistic socioPhilosoph polyglot♥Esperant
Surpass in what?
Economy is not GDP. By GDP PPP China has surpassed USa and will surpass it in nominal GDP.
China has more democracy than the corrupt India. Democracy is linked with the maturity of the society. China has 3 layers: Top level/government meritocracy,
middle (class) free test market economy, low class socialist democracy (it’s not about free speech, but involvement).
Indians don’t even understand each other by using bad English instead of developing own standard language (like the Arab countries).
India used to be more powerful before the colonisation. It’s all corruption now.
India is trying to feed over the English domination which is eating itself now.
China used to be a big power and now coming back with clear socialist policies/principles, and the help of Russia/Brazil…
The world is changing quickly, and China is getting more confident with the HUMAN CAPITAL, while the economist are confusing themselves with GPD #s.
Soon we have to learn Chinese. I believe that the world will need to adopt Esperanto as neutral communication CLEAR language.
China is the most active in the world Commerce Esperanto centre.
Bonŝancon.

回复4
Dimitar Berberu, 分析数学、社会哲学家、精通各国语言和世界语
什么方面超越？
经济并不就是GDP。按PPP算的话中国已经超越了美国，按名义GPD算的话，中国也即将超越美国。
中国比腐败的印度更民主。民主与社会的成熟度联系在一起。中国有三种层次：顶层/政府精英政治、中产（阶级）有自由的市场经济，而下层阶级则有社会主义民主（并不是言论自由，而是参与式民主）
印度人的糟糕英语甚至无法彼此交流，却不寻求发展自己的标准语言（像阿拉伯国家那样）
在殖民统治之前，印度比现在更强大。但现在只剩下腐败了。印度正试图满足目前正在吞食它的英国统治者。
中国曾经是一个大国，现在又有了清晰的社会主义政策和原则，还获得了俄罗斯和巴西等国的帮助。
世界在飞快地转变，中国在人力资源上表现的更加的自信了，而那些经济学家却被GDP搞的昏头转向。
不久后我们就必须向中国人学习了。我认为全世界都需要采纳世界语作为中立清晰交流的语言。
中国是商用世界语最活跃的中心。
祝好运。

Gary Sands, Lived in Shanghai 2006-2012, lives in Vietnam, written several articles on China
Maybe because India has more potential to grow given a low infrastructure base when compared to China’s vast number of airports, ports, subways, roads and highways. If India was successful in building airports, ports, subways, roads and highways, its GDP growth could surpass China’s GDP as infrastructure spending directly contributes to GDP and also helps other sectors grow like manufacturing for export.

回复5
Gary Sands, 2006-2012年生活在上海, 现在在越南生活，在中国写过一些文章。
也许是因为与中国庞大的机场、港口、地铁、公路和高速公路相比，印度在基础设施建设上很匮乏，所以印度拥有更大的发展潜力。如果印度在建设机场、港口、地铁、道路和高速公路方面取得成功，印度的GDP增长可能超过中国，因为基础设施支出直接促进了GDP增长，同时也有助于其他部门如制造业出口的增长。

Avijit K Ndy, Currently unemployed and former Research Associate in GIDS, Lucknow
Keep this words in mind first that there is very less chance for India to surpass China in recent future.
However, one thing for sure is that India is going to surpass china by growth rate. we are now projecting around 7.3 by OECD and that of China’s growth rate is projected to 6.5. Refer this file (http://www.oecd.org/dev/asia-pac...)
now you will often see economists argues about India’s growth more than China are mainly from the United States or from IMF or from World Bank. this two Breton Wood institutions are mainly focused on US economy and controlled by corporations from the United States.
reason behind this is that US is scared of China’s expansion in US economy. how US economy face threats from Chines economy is clearly written in this article. Kindly refer (How Chinas Economy Influences The US).
To know how much china own to US, kindly refer this Wikipedia article (National debt of the United States).
To Know more kindly refer to this The Economist’s article(America's fear of China). they do fear China and its growth. one can expect China to surpass the US economy with few decades, and this the fear they have to fight.
On the flip side, India has potential to become world’s 3rd largest economy, China being the one and US in the 2nd place(China’s Economy Will Be More Competitive Than India’s For Many Years). This article clearly explains all my argument.
So my dear friend, fasten your seat belt to jump at the 3rd place, certainly not in the first place.

回复6
Avijit K Ndy, 当前失业，过去曾是印度勒克锱心理学研究助理
首先先记住，在未来的一段时间内印度基本上无法超越中国。
然而，可以确定的事是印度在增长率上面正在超越中国。根据经合组织给出的统计，当前我们印度的增长率达到了大概7.3，而中国是6.5。参见文件（http://www.oecd.org/dev/asia-pac...）
现在你经常看到的那些说印度经济增长超过中国的经济学家大部分来自美国或者国际货币基金组织和世界银行。这两家布雷顿森林体系下的机构主要关注美国经济，并受到美国公司的控制。
背后的原因是美国害怕中国在美国经济中的扩张。美国经济如何面临来自中国经济的威胁，在本文中有写。参见（《中国经济如何影响美国》)。
要想知道中国占有美国的程度，可见维基百科文章(《美国的国债》)。
想了解更多可见经济学人杂志的文章（《美国畏惧中国》）。美国人真的害怕中国及其发展。有人认为中国会在接下来的几十年里在经济上超越美国，这是美国人不得不对抗的恐惧。
另一方面，印度有潜力成为世界第三的经济体。中国成为第一，美国是第二（《文章：未来许多年，在经济上，中国会比印度更具竞争力》）。这篇文章明确地解释了我的观点
所以我亲爱的朋友，系好你的安全带，跳到第三的位置吧，想超过中国成为第一的是不可能的。

Braden Hendrickson (Bradenplier), Director at Bollywood (2017-present)
Economy:
China is the biggest exporter to Russia, India, USA, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Korea and Kazakhstan. India is the biggest exporter to United Arab Emirates, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Mauritius, and Guinea. 2nd biggest to Afghanistan, Bangladesh and a few African nations. 11th biggest to the USA. If enough Chinese citizens retire, and Pakistani child laborers are rescued, India could become the biggest exporter to Bangladesh, Afghanistan and a few African nations. India did develop a solar power project in 2015 for 12,000 miles. India is also adopting bullet trains, and a new currency note: 2000 Rupee note. 15% of Chinese citizens are retired and 17% of Indians have not reached working age yet. By 2050, it is expected that 34% of Chinese citizens will be retired. India also has a corporation called Indian Oil, which brought $66 billion in revenue in 2015. China gets more tourism. China is home to the Great wall of China, and Terracotta Army. India got 8.69 million tourists in 2015, supporting 40 million jobs. India also has a lot of diamonds and gold.
Military:
Army-China has more active troops, but India has better command structure. India also has newer tanks. They buy more than half of military technology from Russia, and their smallest foreign supplier is Italy. One military general in China in 2014 was accused of ilegally selling hundreds of contracts.
Air force:
China has more aircraft, but India purchases small amounts of aircraft from Israel. China does not have enough refuelers.
Navy:
While China has been growing their Navy, India has 2 aircraft carriers, and has been increasing Coast Guard training. India also does Navy drills with South Korea, Japan and the USA. China does have more submarines than India, though. China did retrofit a Ukrainian aircraft carrier in 2012, but it’s capabilities are unknown.
Nuclear:
Hope this doesn’t happen, but India has 110 nuclear weapons. They can travel as far as China.
​
回复7
Braden Hendrickson (Bradenplier), 宝莱坞导演 (2017至今)
经济：
中国是俄罗斯、印度。美国、澳大利亚、沙特阿拉伯、韩国和哈萨克斯坦最大的商品出口国。印度是阿拉伯联合酋长国、不丹、尼泊尔、斯里兰卡、坦桑尼亚、毛里求斯和几内亚的最大出口国。是阿富汗、孟加拉国和一些非洲国家第二大出口国，是美国第十一大出口国。如果有足够多的中国公民退休，巴基斯坦的童工被解救，印度可能成为孟加拉国、阿富汗和一些非洲国家的最大出口国。印度在2015年发展了一项太阳能发电项目，里程达1.2万英里。印度也采用了高速列车和流通了新的纸币：2000卢比纸币。15%的中国公民已经退休，17%的印度人还没有达到工作年龄。到2050年，预计会有34%的中国公民退休。印度也有印度石油公司，在2015年给国家缴税66亿美刀。中国有更多的游客。中国是万里长城和兵马俑的所在地。印度在2015年接收了869万的游客，提供了4000万份工作。印度也有很多的钻石和黄金。
军事：
中国军队更具活力，但印度军队在指挥结构上更好。印度有更新的坦克，从俄罗斯那里买了一半以上的军事技术，最小的外国供应国是意大利。2014年中国的一位将军被控告违法出售上百份合同。
空军：
中国拥有更多的战机，但印度从以色列购买了小规模的战机。中国没有足够的加燃料器
海军：
虽然中国在发展他们的海军，但印度有两艘航空母舰，还在一直加强海岸警卫队训练。印度还与韩国、日本和美国进行了海军演习。不过，中国的潜艇数量比印度多。中国在2012年确实对一艘乌克兰航空母舰进行了改造，但它的能力尚不清楚。
核武器：
但愿不会用到这个，印度有110枚核弹。这些核弹能打到中国

Ravi Joshi, I've looked into it.
There are certain rock-solid reasons behind these surmises.
China’s economic boom took place under authoritarian regime very before than India. In case of India it took years more to do so because it’s a democratic country and like every democracy things happen with consensus unlike china where the party wants to get something done they just do it, irrespective of outcome, consequences, public opinion(oh does that even matter!). Indian democracy is flawed, yes but like every other first world democracy it will take time to reach that pinnacle of near-transparency in the system. however India is making some radical changes in that way.
why china was able to grow such rapidly over last few years ?
china’s economical boom started near in 80′s.
Reasons of it.
1. It brought their majority of the population out of poverty.
2. Manufacturing hub of the world with very cheap labourers.
3. China has a high savings(monetary) rate, which is recycled and concentrates wages paid to workers into four large state banks.
4. state capitalism.
Let's see some insight of one of their policies to gain better understanding.
china brought the majority of it’s population out of the abject poverty by unprecedented technique. china took over the land of the people and build companies and other infrastructure on it and in return they provided compensation to the people ( in some case it was very little ) and provided them the opportunity to live in urban cities or say small cubicles of apartments build by government. china made history by doing this because they did this on very huge scale which is incomparable. it’s the only country in the world to get it’s people out of abject poverty so quickly. but they paid price.
majority of those whose land was taken are still not happy with the establishment. they are not very optimistic about this change and it fomented hatred towards own establishment which is very dangerous for the country. Whereas India can’t and won’t emulate this model ever because the government is by people, for people. so anything which is against the interest of the people India can’t do that. Indian policies are slow but effective it don't force anyone not a single individual of the country. India does work but with consent of the people.
Trade
China’s trade is single sided. it exports everything possible but import very little leading to imbalance in trade sector and creating paranoia in international diaspora. that’s why international community has started seeing china as hostile partner in the long run for the fact that ultimately it serves against their interest.
dependency on Chinese trade would put them(trading partners of China) under very compelling situation over years because Chinese dependency on them is nearly zero.(and that is not good for any trading partner) However this model did help China grow faster than average.
whereas in case of India it has balance trade relations to some extent but it still needs to improve a lot in the field of logistic, infrastructure, governance and after new establishment changes are visible which will help India grow more faster
Narendra Modi govt unveils its first trade policy, targets doubling of exports at $900 bn
so it’s safe to assume that “ A steady growth in trade with less enemies is always a better than rapid boom in trade with heap of enemies”
in long run it might help India.
however due to this kind of policy hatred towards Chinese establishment in increase and India is becoming favorable spot to counter china.
after all In the war it’s not about how much power you have it’s about how many countries help you as a friend in the actual war, relation does matter and India is very good at making it whereas china is having hard time making friends
Youth
when China’s economical boom took place that was the time when large number of Chinese population was young and which helped china in growing real fast however post 2015 numbers are declining because of their One-child policywhich was introduced just after their economical expansion. so now they are facing major crisis of stable community of aged people who are unproductive for the country. and up-to some extent liability. they might be having some plan for it also, like executing all of them :)
India just entered it’s golden period. up-to 64 percent of people in India are youth which is a main riving force of any nation and current scenario is that the new establishment in the nation is planning to skill the youth on very vast level so that they could help India in long run(ambitious move)
Budget 2016: Modi government plans to skill 1 crore youth in next 3 years - The Economic Times
however it might be interesting to see how many of them will actually do skill oriented job because FDI in different new sectors has increased just after 2015 so it will take time to see some visible changes.
Infrastructure
Chinese are really ambitious about these thing. it’s nearly impossible to beat them in building rapid infrastructure. they have far more superiority in this field compare to India. from high speed trains to multi-lane highways they have build every possible thing.
I’ve heard on one television show that it’s their burning desire to build. like they build sky-scraper in 19 days. that’s called passion
Chinese construction firm erects 57-storey skyscraper in 19 days
but they are so passionate about it that they just keep building things even if it is of no use. so let me introduce the biggest yet bizarre crisis china is facing which is over infrastructure.( see that’s what happens when you get over-enthusiastic about someone)
let’s see one example of it The Unreal, Eerie Emptiness of China’s ‘Ghost Cities’
China has been pumping trllions of dollars in it’s infrastructure which is no longer needed. so in order to ensure steady growth china planned of duation of yuan which aimed at boosting exports and to recover any economy you must need large amount of consumers of your exports in every field.
and India is the largest consumer in fields of manufacturing to infrastructure.
Forget the #SensexCrash: China's crisis may actually be good for India
so in these domain china beats india (badly)
TECHNOLOGY:
these could prove to be key and deciding factor.
No doubt china is ahead of India in many sectors of technology but it does not necessarily mean that India lags behind.
both nations are ambitious about this and both are heavily investing in human resources in order to build better future.
but I will go with India :) I’ll explain you in one simple sentence that why I support India in this case.
because china builds the same thing(having same technology) in huge quantity so it frightens other whereas India builds different thing in less quantity.
but right now they are ahead of India that’s true because their foreign policy has been more successful than India’s.
1. china has it’s own navigation system analogous to GPS.
2. India also has this however it only covers 1/4 or less part of the earth. it does not mean india is less advance in space exploration instead it means that India lacks funding for it.(it needs around 27 satellite of same type to build such system and India has already build 7 so India does have tech)
3. Both nations have reached moon. Chinese Lunar Exploration Program, Chandrayaan-1, Chandrayaan-2.
4. India reached mars whereas China could not.Mars Orbiter Mission
5. Chinese have inter-continental(ICMB) missile where India doesn’t.
so in the context of technology both countries are far advance in some domain but in the long run I would go for India (there is something about it). one thing to remember is that China copies majority of advance technology (nothing new) but we can not under-estimate their capabilities as a nation. at the end of the day country is all about it’s people without it’s people country is nothing but piece of land and considering this point I can happily bet my money on India because it’s democratic country every voice is heard here whereas in China it’s complete contrary. but India is still a newbie but it has the guts to do what serves the interest of the country.

回复8
Ravi Joshi,我已经洞察一切。.
这些推测有一些不容置疑的理由支撑着
中国经济的快速发展基于专制体制，程度远超印度。在印度，需要花更多的时间去做事情，因为它是一个民主国家，就像所有的民主国家都需要达成共识一样，而不像中国，党决定一切，无论是收入、结果、公众舆论（哦，这非常重要）。印度民主有缺陷，的确，但和其他所有的民主国家一样，要想达到这个体系最透明的阶段需要时间。然而，印度正以这种方式做出一些根本性的改变。
为什么中国在过去的几年里能够如此迅速地发展?
中国经济的腾飞始于80年代
原因如下
1. 它使大多数人摆脱了贫困
2. 世界制造业中心和非常廉价的劳动力
3. 中国有一个高储蓄（货币）利率，它被循环利用，并以此将民众工资集中到四个大型国有银行。
4. 国家资本主义
让我们来看看他们的其中一项政策，以便能更好理解。
中国用前所未有的技术将大部分人口脱离贫困。中国接管了人民的土地并建立了公司和其他基础设施，作为回报它向人民提供补偿（在某些情况下补偿很少）。让他们有机会住在城市里，或者说是政府建造的公寓小房间里。中国这样的行动创造了历史，因为他们在很大程度上做到了这一点，这是无可比拟的。它是世界上唯一一个能让人民摆脱赤贫的国家。但他们也付出了代价。
大部分土地被拿走的人仍然对政府感到不满。他们对这种变化并不十分乐观，并且对自己的政府产生了仇恨，这对国家来说是非常危险的。
印度不能也不会效仿这种模式因为政府来自人民，为人民的。所以任何违背人民利益的事情都不可能做。印度的政策是缓慢而有效的，它不会强迫任何一个国民。印度政府做任何事都是在人民的同意下进行的。
贸易
中国的贸易是单方面的。它出口一切可能的东西，但进口很少导致贸易部门的不平衡，并在海外引起恐慌。正因为如此，国际社会才开始将中国视为一个敌对的伙伴，因为中国最终会损害他们的利益。
对中国贸易的依赖将使他们（中国贸易伙伴）多年来处于非常引人注目的境地，因为中国对他们的依赖几乎为零。（这对任何贸易伙伴都不利）然而，这种模式确实帮助中国的增长速度超过了平均水平。
而在印度，在某种程度上印度的贸易相对平衡，但它仍然需要在物流，基础设施，管理等方面进行大量的改进。在新的体制改革之后，这些变化将会帮助印度发展得更快。
新闻：《莫迪政府公布了其首个贸易政策，目标是将出口额翻一番，达到9000亿美元》
因此，我们可以放心地假设，“稳步发展但与人和睦的贸易总比快速发展但引来一堆仇恨的贸易要好得多。”
从长远来看这有利于印度。
然而，由于这种对中国政府的仇视政策在不断加强，印度正逐渐掌握对抗中国的有利位置。
毕竟在战争中，并不是取决于你拥有多少力量，而是取决于在战争中有多少国家愿意成为你的朋友并且帮助你，关系很重要，印度很擅长做，而中国却很难交到朋友。
年轻劳动力
中国经济繁荣的时候正值中国有大量的年轻劳动力帮助中国快速增长，但是2015年后年轻劳力数量下降了，因为一胎政策，这个政策是在中国经济扩张时颁布的。所以现在他们面临着难以解决的人口老龄化危机，这些老年人对国家来说是不具备生产力的。因为某种程度上的责任。他们可能会为此制定一些计划，例如赡养这些老人。
印度已经进入了人口黄金期。印度高达64%的人是年轻人，这些年轻人是任何国家的主要竞争对手。当前的方案是印度新政府正计划大规模的培训这些年轻人，使之能在长期阶段帮助印度发展（雄心勃勃的计划）
《2016预算：莫迪政府计划在未来三年培训一千万年轻人》——经济时报
然而，看看他们中有多少人会真正地从事以技能为导向的工作是很有趣的，由于不同领域的外国直接投资在2015年之后才有所增加，因此需要过段时间才能看到一些明显的变化。
基础设施
中国在这方面野心勃勃。在快速建设基础设施方面几乎不可能击败他们。与印度相比，中国在这个领域有更大的优势。从高铁到多车道高速公路，他们建造了一切可能的东西。
我在一个电视节目中见识过他们建设的欲望有多强烈。就像他们在19天内建造摩天大楼一样。这就是激情。
《中国建筑公司在19天内建造了57层的摩天大楼》
他们对此很有激情，即使建好了根本没有用，他们也会继续建造。让我来介绍一下中国目前面临的最严重危机，即基础设施建设（看看你对某些东西过分激情时会发生什么事情）
让我们举个例子《虚假、可怕且空虚的中国鬼城》
中国在基础设施建设中投入了大量本应该不必投入的资金。因此，为了确保中国对人民币贬值需求的稳步增长，旨在促进出口和恢复经济，你必须在每个领域都需要大量的出口消费者。
印度在每个领域都是最大的消费者，无论是制造业还是基础设施建设。
《忘掉股市崩溃：中国的危机可能会成为印度的机遇》
所以在这些领域中国打败了印度（彻底的）
中国在基础设施建设中投入了大量本应该不必投入的资金。因此，为了确保中国对人民币贬值需求的稳步增长，旨在促进出口和恢复经济，你必须在每个领域都需要大量的出口消费者。
印度在每个领域都是最大的消费者，无论是制造业还是基础设施建设。
《忘掉股市崩溃：中国的危机可能会成为印度的机遇》
所以在这些领域中国打败了印度（彻底的）
技术：
这些可能是关键和决定性的因素。
毫无疑问，中国在许多技术领域领先于印度，但这并不一定意味着印度落后于中国。
这两个国家都雄心勃勃，两国都在大力投资人力资源，以建设更美好的未来。
但是我看好印度，我将用一个简单的句子来解释为什么我支持印度。
因为中国制造了同样的东西（拥有同样的技术），所以它让其他国家感到害怕，而印度却以更少的数量制造了不同的东西。
但现在他们领先于印度，这是事实，因为他们的外交政策比印度更成功。
1. 中国拥有自己的导航系统，类似于GPS。
2. 印度也有导航系统，但它只覆盖了地球的1/4或更少面积。这并不意味印度在空间探索上比中国落后，只是表明了印度缺少资金（它需要大约27颗相同类型的卫星来建造这样的系统，而印度已经建造了7颗，所以印度有技术）
3. 两个国家都到过月球。《中国探索月球项目》，印度《月球- 1》和《月球- 2》
4. 印度到过火星，但中国没有。《火星轨道探测器任务》
5. 中国拥有洲际导弹，但印度没有。
所以在科技的背景下，这两个国家在某些领域都有很大的进步，但是从长远来看，我将会去印度（下面是相关原因）。需要记住的一点是，中国复制了大部分先进技术（没有一种技术是自创的）。但是我们不能低估他们作为一个国家的能力。最后我要说的是，国家是属于人民的，没有人民这个国家就一无所有，只是一块地罢了。基于这点，我很高兴地把赌注压在了印度身上，因为印度是民主国家，在这任何声音都能被听到。而在中国则完全相反。虽然印度才刚上路，但它有为了自己国家的利益而奋斗的勇气。
Steve Lee
Perhaps, I am the only person of Chinese ancestry to answer this question.
I love how “most economists” (meaning they are westerners, or non-westerners who work primarily in the west or for western institutions) make such a vague statement to protect their reputations in case their prediction does not come to fruition. Economy is a discipline that looks good on the surface but mostly fails in practice. I envy the position of economists. They can call themselves experts and enjoy the prestige that comes with it by being wrong a lot of times.
Why Indian compare their “democratic institution” to the those of the western developed world. Have they ever thought that there are also countries with “democratic institution” but failed economies; namely, countries like Brasil, Argentina, Mexico, the Philippines, Thailand and Greece etc. India is heading down the path of the latter. Indian “democracy” is chaotic like those countries’. Incessant bickering among politicians who only care about protecting their own interests instead of working together towards the greater goods.
The dearth of respondents of Chinese ancestry show the lack of interests of Chinese people in this topic. Chinese are not concerned at all if India would surpass China. The prediction has as much as credibility of Gordon Chang’s theory on the collapse of China.

回复8

Steve Lee

我可能是唯一回答这个问题的中国人
我超喜欢“大多数经济学家”（这表示他们是西方人，或者非西方但在西方国家或者西方人控制的机构中工作）做这种模糊不清的声明，如果他们的预测失效了，这能保护他们的名誉。经济学是一种表面上看起来不错的学科，但在实践中却大多失败了。我甚是羡慕经济学家的位置。他们可以称自己为专家，并借着多次的错误来享受随之而来的声望。
为什么印度将他们的“民主制度”与西方发达国家相比。他们有没有想过，也有一些国家是“民主制度”但失败的经济体，比如，巴西、阿根廷、墨西哥、菲律宾、泰国和希腊等等。印度正沿着失败的后者的道路走下去。印度的“民主”就像那些国家一样混乱，不断争吵的政客就只知道保护自己的利益，却不会协力致力于更好的事情。
在这个问题上，少有中国人的回答反映了中国人对这个问题缺乏兴趣。中国人根本就不关心印度是否能超越中国。这一预测与章家墩关于中国崩溃论的可信度一样低。

T.A. Aadithya, works at Students
Population.
The one major factor. India adds about 20 million people an year to its population. China adds about 6 million every year owing to its one child policy. So by 2023 India is poised to become the most populated country in the world. By 2050 , there will be 1.6 billion Indians, while China's population will shrink. The more the people, the more GDP is generated assuming the Indian govt pulls it's shit together. Although still poor by world standard , India's sheer population makes it the third largest economy by purchasing power.
Demographics.
The other factor . India has a young population. The average Chinese is a decade older than the average indian . So there is an excess 100 to 200 million more people in China's workface than India. Most of India's youth are still studying or just started their careers to make a noticeable impact in the GDP. Also China's women are more involved in the professional world than India. Indeed there is a lot of untapped talent of millions of Indian women that if used properly can transform India to an economic powerhouse and can double per capita incomes. A lot of Indian women sacrifice their careers for family and husbands and this contributes nothing economically to the country. Per capita incomes of India will only rise if both the genders work and contribute equally.
The above answer is about India surpassing China in GDP ( both nominal and PPP ). I haven't considered any other factor apart from GDP. Any suggestions are welcome :).
T.A. Aadithya, 一名学生

人口
是主要的原因。印度一年增加2000万的人口。中国因为一胎政策大约是600万。所以到2023年，印度会成为世界上人口最多的国家。到2050年，会有16亿的印度人，而到时中国的人口会萎缩。假如印度政府能把团结所有人，那么人口越多，GDP越多就会成真。虽然按照世界标准来说仍是穷国，但在购买力上，印度绝对优势的人口会使之成为世界第三大经济体。
人口统计资料
其他因素，印度拥有年轻人口。中国人的平均年龄比印度人要大10岁，所以中国的劳动力比印度多出了1亿到2亿人。大多数印度年轻人仍在学习或刚刚开始他们的职业生涯，这对GDP产生显著影响。此外，中国女性在专业领域的参与度比印度要高。确实，数百万印度妇女有很多尚未开发的人才，如果使用得当，可以将印度转变为一个经济强国，人均收入可翻一番。许多印度妇女为了家庭和丈夫而牺牲自己的事业，这对国家经济没有任何贡献：印度的人均收入只有在男女平等的情况下才会上升。
上面的答案是印度在GDP上超过中国（不论是名义GDP还是PPP）。除了GDP之外，我没有考虑其他因素。欢迎任何评价。

Anle Xia
The propagandization of the future belonging to India has been diffused by certain persons for decades, while the only fact is that now China is much better than India whatever in national power or people’s livelihood and actually the gap will widen. Maybe the only self-consolation by Indians is that India is a democracy (in fact, India is a “democracy” with many suicided farmers, malnourished children and abused women and their irresponsible government carry out orders at random like Banknote ban, honestly,it is not the democracy I think ). As someone said: A dream is the best disappointment.

未来属于印度的宣传被某些特定人士传播了几十年了，然而唯一的事实是中国在国力和民生上远比印度做的更好，而且这种差距还会拉大。可能印度人唯一的自我安慰就是印度是个民主国家（事实上，一个民主国家有着大量自杀的农民、营养不良的儿童、受虐待的女性以及随意颁布法令例如禁钞令那样的不负责任的政府,老实讲，这不是我认为的民主）就像某人说过的那样：有梦最美，失望相随。